New MODL being released on Mon 8 Feb 2010

[Guest Susan Wareham McGrath]

Hi Mat

 

Thanks for your question.

 

My reasoning is as follows:

 

DIAC's currently basing its skillled migration policy on a year old CSL, which it compiled, in collaboration with the Federal Department of Education, Employment and Workforce Relations, from data that was already outdated in March last year.

 

Since then Australia has started to recover from the economic downturn and is experiencing a resources boom in Western Australia, to name just a couple of important skills needs drivers.

 

Australia's ability to avoid recession and its subsequent recovery has been assisted by the Federal Govt's stimulus package, which includes initiatives like Building the Education Revolution, an AU$16.2m strategy to build and refurbish schools.

 

That initiative alone has boosted the need for building trades across Australia, even without considering the additional workforce needs that are apparent now that the Australian economy is now recovering from the downturn, albeit slowly.

 

But although the stimulus package was devised by the Rudd Government, the CSL pays no heed to it, except for its listing of Wall and Floor Tilers.

 

Western Australia is crying out for mining professionals, but the CSL pays no heed to that either.

 

A recent article in Mining News, quoted the Professor of Economic Policy at Perth’s Curtin University Peter Kenyon, saying the State has not had time since the end of the last boom in 2008 to build up its skilled labour numbers. He then went on to say, “That means what we will end up with is real skill shortages in Perth, and even in the rest of Australia.”

 

There have been many other recent reports, prepared by reputable organisations that have identified that Australia is again experiencing a national skills shortage, particularly in the areas of building, engineering and trades. But apart from its listing of some engineering sub-specialties, the CSL doesn't reflect this.

 

In fact, a recent report from Clarius said 17 of the 20 skilled occupation categories are experiencing a sharp drop in labour in the last three months of last year and that there are now only 17,000 skilled professionals seeking employment, down from the 45,000 estimated during the September quarter.

 

Apart from its listing of some computing occupations and accountancy, the CSL doesn't reflect this either.

 

The problem as I see it is that DIAC and DEEWR can only work with retrospective information and results of surveys/audits, whereas the States have current information and business forecasts to work with in the compilation of their lists.

 

Best regards

Susan

[Guest izephyr]

Thanks Sheelagh for the information and Gill for making it a sticky.

 

I Just Hope that DIAC makes NO RETROSPECTIVE CHANGES and reduce the waiting time for the existing applicants.

[Guest pippa1]

Well I'm doomed I think!

 

Ex international student, just sitting on the pass mark , no employer or state sponsorship just family 886. I have a full time job in my nominated occupation but working for state government they won't sponsor me for anything.

 

'Significant' changes scares me.....can it possibly get any worse for me..?

[ramot]

Well I'm doomed I think!

 

Ex international student, just sitting on the pass mark , no employer or state sponsorship just family 886. I have a full time job in my nominated occupation but working for state government they won't sponsor me for anything.

 

'Significant' changes scares me.....can it possibly get any worse for me..?

 

In the same boat! or perhaps should be sitting in one off shore! Not convinced everything wont be retrospective again, and hit the genuine hard working ex international students. I know there is a lot said about international students being blamed for some of this mess, but the government allowed the rise of dodgy education colleges to happen. There are many genuine international students, who have worked their butt off to get genuine Australian qualifications, and ok took a chance, spent thousands of $'s to unis and taffes., but it was an accepted route when my family member decided to study here 4 years ago. 3 years study, almost 1 year on bridging visa A waiting for grant of 885 visa.

Interested in how you got a State gov. job without PR? as he is finding it almost impossible to get a real job without it. Any tips would be appreciated!!! In the meantime still has his student job, which is of course depriving someone much less qualified of a job.

[matjones]

The problem as I see it is that DIAC and DEEWR can only work with retrospective information and results of surveys/audits, whereas the States have current information and business forecasts to work with in the compilation of their lists.

 

 

Thanks Susan,

 

The other big problem i see is just the processing times in general. Even if you have the most up to date list, by the time the visas are processed the entire landscape could have changed. If nurses are in demand today, for example, then they should try and get the visas processed in weeks, not years. Theres really no reason for them not to be able to do this, besides the backlog. Evaluating a persons application surely doesn't take up that much man power.

[Guest pippa1]

Hi Ramot

 

It just keeps getting worse doesn't it? I'm really scared that the pass mark will change and I won't qualify anymore. I have worked for 12 months full time, so could get extra points there, but I doubt whether they would allow me to include them on now! You just can't win!

 

My job is contracted, so not permanent as such. I have been there since July 08, started as casual, then moved to contract after a few months:)

 

Fingers crossed for Monday, here's to a weekend of stress ...

 

x

[ramot]

Hi Pippa,

 

Can only hope that Gill's post on page 4, post 32, with the advice from George is correct, and includes the SOL list. If the application for PR was valid at time of application, then your points should be ok. Why don't I quite believe that you aren't safe until you have your PR. Judging by all the immoral changes over the last few years by the Australian government, any thing could happen.

[Guest thescore]

Oops indeed! They have certainly done 'it' again. Let's hope this it is not as bad as the last 'its' they have done - all eyes on Monday's announcement !!

I must admit that in all my years in Australian migration (both as an assesing officer in DIAC as well as a migration agent) I have never experienced quite the rollercoaster ride DIAC has treated us to over the last 15 months. My fear as we enter a new Federal election year is for the peaks and troughs to get worse! Fasten your seatbelts one and all - the ride is going to get rougher.

I think you are right, just hope they would put environmental engineer into the new list, that's my EA-assessed occupation.

[Guest Optional]

DIAC introducing new MODL. What they gonna do with priority processing now, so :confused:

 

They should remove priorities now and go in FCFS basis. Otherwise priority list will be so :goofy:

[Guest waynenicola]

:arghh:why cant diac just listen to the states and the people and sort this mess out or start refunding lost app fees !!!

[Guest jains005]

our life...our money... wts minister's concern?

[Guest jains005]

is the list is going to be longer than CSL? if then congrats to people going to be included.

who are not in MODL too, a deeper depression...

[B1K3R]

 

In fact, a recent report from Clarius said 17 of the 20 skilled occupation categories are experiencing a sharp drop in labour in the last three months of last year and that there are now only 17,000 skilled professionals seeking employment, down from the 45,000 estimated during the September quarter.

 

Apart from its listing of some computing occupations and accountancy, the CSL doesn't reflect this either.

 

Hi Susan,

 

Thanks for the info.

 

I'm not sure if I understood correctly. Did you mean that Computer (and accounting) jobs are increasing or decreasing?

 

Thanks :smile:

 

B1K3R

[Guest June Pixie]

Perhaps some professionals involved in the mining industry will benefit. Mining magnate announces Australia's 'biggest' export deal with China

 

Any miners left in the UK?

[Guest Susan Wareham McGrath]

Hi BIK3R

 

I meant that they're showing signs of growth, as Australia recovers from the economic downturn (albeit slowly).

 

That's not to say, of course, that the IT/Accounting job markets aren't highly competitive - I imagine they always will be; but there are signs of life in both now, whereas, say six months ago, it was a buyer's market to say the least.

 

Best regards

Susan

[capetosydney]

I’m not sure how DIAC and states are going to agree on processing priorities. If I’m on a national CSL (or MODL or whatever they end up calling the list), then most likely I’ll be on regional SS list for at least 3 or 4 states. So, if priority is given to SS sponsored CSL and non CSL, above national CSL, all I got to do is apply to one of the states to sponsor me and push myself up the queue.

All this is going to achieve is to clog up state sponsoring system with number of ‘unnecessary’ applications trying to speed up processing times.

If state sponsored applications are above national CSL than there is no point in having national CSL.

So the most likely outcome IMHO is one where current processing priorities stay the more or less the same, albeit with new, updates and expended CSL list to include some state specific shortages.

 

Confusing times indeed....

[Guest Jamie Smith]

mmmmm. interesting.

 

More speculation on my part:

 

With a continued oversupply of applicants, I think we'll see an unpopular structural change that affects (hopefully only new) applicants, and softening of the 457 in areas of commitment to training (no more need to make a donation to TAFE). This last part is common sense but it would be used to allow the Government to show that not all changes are negative.

 

Possible changes are to allow hairdressing and cooking for PR as long as there is a minimum of say 4-5 years work experience after graduation perhaps requiring that half that experience to be in Australia so some cafe employers taking cash bribes can't fake the employment of an applicant in a current year

 

The MODL list occupations might have a cap for application numbers in some occupations and Skilled Independent could be capped to allow more points and more applications for employer sponsored and state sponsored applications so the Minister dosn't have to suspend the categories, instead an applciation will be returned once a quota is reached. Either that or they'll move to a floating pool or pass mark or a total prioritisation based on points scored, like the NZ system.

 

That last set of thoughts might come into play anyway but across the whole programme, so once this year's quota is reached they won't accept any more applications except for certain (SCL?) occupations - that would meet the comments of the politically driven CEO of DIAC in terms of it being a significant shift in thinking.

 

I hope for all here that DIAC have thought this one through. I guess they have not as there has been zero consultation with the migration industry...

[tcillc]

Hi Susan,

 

Thanks for the info.

 

I'm not sure if I understood correctly. Did you mean that Computer (and accounting) jobs are increasing or decreasing?

 

Thanks :smile:

 

B1K3R

 

Hi B1K3R,

 

FYI, here is the link to complete report:

 

http://www.clarius.com.au/PDF/Clarius%20Skills%20Index_December%202009%20Quarter.pdf

[mr luvpants]

I cant believe this! We lodged on the 8th January 2010 for a 176. My wife is a nurse and I am confident that we will be on any list. HOWEVER I need PR to do what I do and so am nervous that any changes are going to be retrospective and not give PR automatically and will give it once the applicant has worked in that occupation for a certain period of time.

 

JOHN

[loopylas]

Ok so like everyone else I am now feeling physically sick. Although we started our various applications over a a year ago now and like so many others are over 26 weeks on WA SS we actually started the process 2 years ago becuase we have a child with a disability and we spent 6 months or so getting him assessed before filling out any forms. A week last friday we asked our agent to proceed with our 176 visa before we got SS, we could not stand the wait any longer. We finalised the application only for our agent to hesitate in the middle of last week and put doubt in our minds about SS approval, but now what do we do? She should just be able to press the button on Monday and the application will be lodged but I am so confused, do we or don't we? aaahhhhhhhhh. Sorry but just need to air my frustration

[Guest Gollywobbler]

Hi All

 

The three RMAs on this thread have a better idea than I have about what the Minister will tell some of Australia's industry and trades union leaders on Monday.

 

My fellow Mod, NIGELINOZ, has very kindly PMd me during the UK night to say that on Tuesday the Minister will be in Canberra, flanked by his senior staff from DIAC, addressing the Senate Estimates Committee again.

 

The Agenda is here:

 

http://www.aph.gov.au/SENATE/estimates/add0910/lca.pdf

 

There is to be a live TV link to the proceedings, which is here:

 

http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/

 

The proceedings start at 9am Canberra time on Tuesday 9th February. Canberra is GMT +11 hours at the moment so the proceedings will start at around 10pm on Monday night for those of us in the UK.

 

Whatever the Minister says on Monday, the Committee is bound to grill him about it on Tuesday, provided that enough of the Senators hear about Senator Chris Evans' latest antics in time and depending on which of the Senators will actually be present on Tuesday.

 

At the last meeting, on 20th October, there was a golden opportunity to get the other Senators to ask Minister Evans why he had suddenly introduced his Edict of 23rd September 2009, how many visa applicants would be affected by it, what was happening about offering them their money back / paying them interest on their money and so on. The opportunity was missed. Would-be migrants didn't complain to the Senators so they spent a huge amount of time wittering about the boat-people aboard the Aussie Customs vessel off the coast of Indonesia instead. The illegal entrants who might have got to Oz in their own boat stole all the limelight and people trying to migrate to Oz via ordinary channels were not even mentioned.

 

Most of us won't need to watch most of the meeting on Tuesday. It looks as if the Committee will be told that the new OMARA (now under the control of DIAC instead of the Migration Institute of Australia) is working well. (Whether it is working at all is another matter and that will be glossed over, I expect.)

 

It looks as if they will then discuss Outcome 1 of the Migration Program for 2009/2010 so that the Senators can find out how well that is working.

 

The only figures available to the public so far are here:

 

http://www.immi.gov.au/media/statistics/statistical-info/visa-grants/migrant.htm

 

http://www.immi.gov.au/media/statistics/statistical-info/visa-grants/

 

I've been badgering DIAC for the Migration Program half-yearly figures (ie the visas actually granted up to 31st December 2009.) At the meeting in London, Mr Wilden said he would get the figures up to 30th November, the date of our meeting, and would provide them. He then said that DIAC had decided that production of the figures might be "misleading."

 

I wrote back to him on 26th January 2010 saying that the public would judge whether the figures were "misleading" or not and that I wanted them for the full half year since they are bound to be given to the Minister so they are definitely available. I have not heard back from Mr Wilden as yet.

 

I threatened to ask Peter Mares from ABC Radio to use the Freedom of Information Act in order to demand the half-yearly figures from DIAC if need be.

 

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/nationalinterest/about/

 

Jamie Smith on PiO was instrumental in getting Peter Mares to air the problems of would-be migrants and then Peter Mares obtained the only public sound bite that there has ever been from the Minister about the backlog and his 23rd September 'solution' to it. The two transcripts are below:

 

Migration applicants stuck in two-year limbo - The National Interest - 30 October 2009

 

Immigration Minister responds to backlog concerns - The National Interest - 13 November 2009

 

Personally I thought the Minister's arrogance in the second interview was quite breathtaking. The Aussie Voter and the Trades Unions in Oz are the only "People Our Business" that he cares about and DIAC are required to do as he says.

 

I didn't watch the early part of the meeting on 20th October because I went to bed in the UK. The Hansard and the answers to Questions on Notice for it can be downloaded from here:

 

http://www.aph.gov.au/SENATE/estimates/index.htm

 

I watched the late part of the meeting in the evening in Oz. The content wasn't relevant to me. I simply wanted to see how everyone performed. The Minister had been in the spotlight all day and he was clearly getting tired. Bags grew under his eyes whilst I watched. When he gets tired he becomes snappy and irritable, I noticed.

 

Mind you, anybody would be snappy after a day of merciless nagging from Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells. She is an Opposition Senator and she gave the Minister no peace at all. I cheered and thought, "Good for you, lady!" Had I known about her in time I'd have lobbied her in advance of the Senate's meeting and got some of her constituents in NSW to do the same:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concetta_Fierravanti-Wells

 

The lady is a lawyer, so she was completely unruffled by a snappy Minister. Her professional pedigree is miles better than his, too:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Evans_(Australian_politician)

 

Senator Trood was excellent as well. When he spoke, he also gave the Minister what for. Another lawyer and another member of the Opposition Liberals, again much better-qualified than the Minister, Senator Trood was also not prepared to put up with any wriggling from the Minister:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Trood

 

Senator Trood comes from QLD somewhere - at least, his constituency is in or near Brisbane as far as I can remember. They can all be contacted via this link:

 

http://www.aph.gov.au/SENATE/senators/index.htm

 

Not many of the Senators on the Committee attended in October. Many who did attend seemed to be completely vapid and ineffectual to me, but they were Labor Senators so I guess that their job was to protect Minister Evans.

 

Turning to the DIAC officials, the boss of DIAC (technically called the Secretary) is Andrew Metcalfe. He sits next to his Minister and keeps the latter out of trouble - exactly as also happens in the UK. Peter Vardos is DIAC's Head of Policy. He spent much of the time on the other side of the Minister, helping to keep the latter out of trouble. Half of DIAC seemed to be in the room at one time or another. They have Blackberries and their minions have laptops, mobile phones etc and they can get a lot of the figures and the answers from colleagues within DIAC's HQ in seconds, some of the time.

 

I thought Andrew Metcalfe was good. He copes with the long hours much better than his Minister does. Mr Metcalfe also doesn't get ruffled, unlike an easily-tired Minister.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Immigration_and_Citizenship

 

http://www.immi.gov.au/about/department/senior-staff/_pdf/biography-andrew-metcalfe.pdf

 

The others can be found if anyone can be bothered to read the Hansards and then trawl the Web.

 

For those who are fed up with the waiting, I think it will be worth watching the early part of Tuesday’s meeting in order to put some faces to the names and to watch Senator Chris Evans on his feet and in action, to get an idea of the man.

 

Cheers

 

Gill

[Guest rachbarlow]

Yes, I think priority should be given to those with work experience, and not those who just graduated from sham Aussie trade schools.

 

I totally agree with this as it is so frustrating. My OH has 22 years exp, far more valuable than a graduate. I have been a graduate, been in that positon, yes I had a degree etc etc, I have quals coming out of everywhere!!! HOWEVER, I did not have the knowledge and experience.

 

I realise that you need to start somewhere, we all do. But when it is cut throat as the visas are, surely the best person for the visa should be assessed. Not the ones already there, have a qual and apply for the PR skilled visa, then not even do the job. The person who is going to go out and work and pay the taxes should get it!!!

 

Lets hope this is right. Hold tight....................................

[Guest rachbarlow]

H

 

So for any existing applicants who are worrying about their Points, please don't worry about this. According to George, MODL points are protected by a special legislative provision and I am 100% certain that George is right about this.

 

 

 

I hope that this is the case. You know the DIAC they are good at making 'new rules' appear, and the old ones dissapear. Lets just hope they CAN'T touch this one........:daydreaming:

[Guest Jamie Smith]

That's a good collection you've put together Gill.

 

The cynic in me says the stats released show DIAC budgeting for an increase in (arranged) marriages as a result of students being cut off from a clear PR pathway. Apparently there is already an underground industry focused on these students offering partners, weddings and documentation....

 

Misleading figures, ha! Only when the Minister or DIAC decide to use them inappropriately. That failure to release the stats means the stats will not support the changes to be announced soon. Metcalfe is a political fiddler not an honest civil servant encouraging transparency.

 

The changes to be announced will be pitched to appeal to "common sense" more than using data based decision making, and I suspect the stats will show there is reduced logic for the changes ie that the changes made already are having the desired effect.

 

Therefore any further changes cannot really be justified economically or skills wise, and are probably being driven to reduce the risk of legal action from disaffected applicants or streamline the mnanagement of new applications.

 

Mr Wilden will be able to access the figures I am sure, and I am equally sure that he is under instruction not to release them - even though the figures belong to the Government and therefore to the Australian people.

 

You would do well Gill to follow though on your FOI pursuit.:policeman:

 

Fierravanti-Wells came across to me as a conspiracy theorist seeking the dirt on others, rather than someone seeking to form a balanced opinion.

 

I also don't think Evans' shortness is from being tired, I think it's just a defensive technique to intimidate people who might be close to hitting the target. Unions and unionists love to be emotional when it suits them, as employers tend to be more dispassionate about things.

 

Suggestions, that EVERYONE email the senators on the committee once Monday's announcements become clear, voicing support or disapproval in terms of how it affects your own case.

 

Let's feed the debate and make sure the policy makers are fully informed about the effects of what is announced.

 

:Randy-git:

[Guest Foreverlove2010]

I am going to Wesley Mission to pray for TOMORROW's new MODL list! Amen!