Recession?

[unzippy 3,874]

Do you think it's imminent in Aus?

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/finance-guru-mark-bouris-makes-grim-prediction-of-looming-recession-in-australia-as-cost-of-living-pressures-grow/news-story/d6c360787b77e4c19bf147ee44bb167d

I think it's on the way.

[InnerVoice 1,021]

1 hour ago, unzippy said:

Do you think it's imminent in Aus?

It's already here.

[simmo 21,836]

Good news is the UK AUS NZ trade agreement kicks in today so you can at least consol yourselves with some quality British produce.

[Toots 12,167]

3 hours ago, unzippy said:

Do you think it's imminent in Aus?

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/finance-guru-mark-bouris-makes-grim-prediction-of-looming-recession-in-australia-as-cost-of-living-pressures-grow/news-story/d6c360787b77e4c19bf147ee44bb167d

I think it's on the way.

It's been well on the way since the start of Covid.  Prices have been creeping up since then for sure.  Covid was always the excuse for rising costs then problems with freight due to the cost of petrol.  Many people struggling with trying to find a rental, cost of heating now we are into winter, cost of groceries and the list goes on.

[HappyHeart 14,320]

Yes and the RBA's Philip Lowe thinks housesharing is the answer to the housing crisis. 5 minutes ago they were throwing free money around and now we are paying for it and being forced to economise. 

[simmo 21,836]

20 minutes ago, HappyHeart said:

Yes and the RBA's Philip Lowe thinks housesharing is the answer to the housing crisis. 5 minutes ago they were throwing free money around and now we are paying for it and being forced to economise. 

socialism for ya.

[Blue Flu 1,164]

Turbo immigration disguising the true economy as maintains GDP. (but totally not needed) But country on the skids. Falling ore prices mean falling dollar (imports become more expensive). Inflated housing prices mean ever increasing personal debts. Overseas money maintaining high house prices as ever more corrupt money is laundered into housing. This makes housing cheaper for foreigners but more expensive for locals.  

 

[Blue Flu 1,164]

13 hours ago, InnerVoice said:

It's already here.

Somewhat hidden though with record immigration . 

[Blue Flu 1,164]

15 hours ago, unzippy said:

Do you think it's imminent in Aus?

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/finance-guru-mark-bouris-makes-grim-prediction-of-looming-recession-in-australia-as-cost-of-living-pressures-grow/news-story/d6c360787b77e4c19bf147ee44bb167d

I think it's on the way.

Thier taking us ever closer to Brazil but minus The Samba. 

Edited June 1 by Blue Flu

[InnerVoice 1,021]

16 hours ago, simmo said:

Good news is the UK AUS NZ trade agreement kicks in today so you can at least consol yourselves with some quality British produce.

Although we'll not be able to afford them if the pound gets any stronger!

[Blue Flu 1,164]

17 hours ago, simmo said:

Good news is the UK AUS NZ trade agreement kicks in today so you can at least consol yourselves with some quality British produce.

Not such great news for UK farmers though. 

[Blue Flu 1,164]

1 hour ago, InnerVoice said:

Although we'll not be able to afford them if the pound gets any stronger!

Never mind it was long over due. China's economic expansion just covered over the cracks for a decade or so. Perhaps the massive Black Economy will save the nation? Just have to get used to paying rent to an overseas land lord, possibly from China.  

By all is not lost. Looks like we are a permanent member of the Eurovision family. How good is that?  

Edited June 2 by Blue Flu

[unzippy 3,874]

8 minutes ago, Blue Flu said:

 

By all is not lost. Looks like we are a permanent member of the Eurovision family. How good is that?  

Has there been a new deal?

https://www.sbs.com.au/programs/eurovision-song-contest/article/2019/02/12/sbs-secures-australias-spot-eurovision-song-contest-until-2023

[simmo 21,836]

43 minutes ago, Blue Flu said:

Not such great news for UK farmers though. 

When you cut through politics and anti brexit propaganda it's not bad at all. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-65390109

 

[InnerVoice 1,021]

We were fortunate enough to remortgage for 3 years when interest rates hit rock bottom in 2021, so we still have another year's grace. At the end of that period I've calculated our repayments will increase by at least $1,000/month if interest rates stay at the same level. Based on our combined income we can stand it, although it will mean an end to overseas holidays and a few other luxuries. We also have the option of selling our property and downsizing because we have a decent amount of equity, but my concern is for the financial security of many Australians who're already living on the edge.

[Blue Flu 1,164]

4 hours ago, unzippy said:

Has there been a new deal?

https://www.sbs.com.au/programs/eurovision-song-contest/article/2019/02/12/sbs-secures-australias-spot-eurovision-song-contest-until-2023

I thought it was somewhat ongoing due to SBS participation? If that is not the case, then things are far more grim than could ever be anticipated. Perhaps we could be included in a similar celebration closer to home? 

Perhaps there is a Chinese province musical event where Australia could slip in?  Otherwise employ the Dutch towing company Smit , and use a few of their larger tugs and tow the nation to a point in the Atlantic of Ireland. Hardly able to refuse participation then. 

[HappyHeart 14,320]

56 minutes ago, InnerVoice said:

We were fortunate enough to remortgage for 3 years when interest rates hit rock bottom in 2021, so we still have another year's grace. At the end of that period I've calculated our repayments will increase by at least $1,000/month if interest rates stay at the same level. Based on our combined income we can stand it, although it will mean an end to overseas holidays and a few other luxuries. We also have the option of selling our property and downsizing because we have a decent amount of equity, but my concern is for the financial security of many Australians who're already living on the edge.

We also refinanced in 2021 and gor variabke rate 2.2 %. We are now on 5.75% i think  and had not budgeted for this as we were assured no rate rises till 2024 (when we will have sold house number 1) We currently pay 2 mortgages and I've calculated our payments are approx $1600 extra a month right now. Starting to truly feel the pinch and no disposable income at all.  Just as well we like the simple pleasures. Hopefully will have house number 1 sold by end of year for some breathing space. 

[AliG 16]

7 hours ago, simmo said:

When you cut through politics and anti brexit propaganda it's not bad at all. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-65390109

 

I'm not sure the article that you posted supports your conclusion. ;-)

[simmo 21,836]

12 minutes ago, AliG said:

I'm not sure the article that you posted supports your conclusion. ;-)

I think overall it does.   If you read all of it.

[InnerVoice 1,021]

13 hours ago, HappyHeart said:

We also refinanced in 2021 and gor variabke rate 2.2 %. We are now on 5.75% i think  and had not budgeted for this as we were assured no rate rises till 2024 (when we will have sold house number 1) We currently pay 2 mortgages and I've calculated our payments are approx $1600 extra a month right now. Starting to truly feel the pinch and no disposable income at all.  Just as well we like the simple pleasures. Hopefully will have house number 1 sold by end of year for some breathing space. 

Ouch! I feel your pain. The annoying thing is we could've remortgaged for 5 years at a slightly higher rate, and that would've taken me up to 60 (and retirement) when we plan to downsize and relocate. I guess like most we didn't expect interest rates to rise quite as rapidly and by so much in a relatively short period - you live and learn! We're also quite frugal in most respects (last night was the first time we've eaten out this year), although I do like me overseas trips,  and still looking forward to visiting Japan and South Korea at some point.

The main concern from our perspective would be if there's property crash, and we get considerably less for our house than we would if we sold it now. I think you're making a wise decision to sell one of your properties by the end of the year.

[HappyHeart 14,320]

17 minutes ago, InnerVoice said:

Ouch! I feel your pain. The annoying thing is we could've remortgaged for 5 years at a slightly higher rate, and that would've taken me up to 60 (and retirement) when we plan to downsize and relocate. I guess like most we didn't expect interest rates to rise quite as rapidly and by so much in a relatively short period - you live and learn! We're also quite frugal in most respects (last night was the first time we've eaten out this year), although I do like me overseas trips,  and still looking forward to visiting Japan and South Korea at some point.

The main concern from our perspective would be if there's property crash, and we get considerably less for our house than we would if we sold it now. I think you're making a wise decision to sell one of your properties by the end of the year.

Yes, the saving grace is we bought everything land, house, build at a really good time (we were lucky) and also selling at a good time. Been advised we shouldn't have difficulty as very little availability in our part of the world. Once we put proceeds from sale into 2nd mortgage we will be sorted. I hope. 

[ali 16,504]

We've certainly noticed the rise in food - I seem to be spending more and getting less at the supermarket.  I get my car insurance through woolies and as a result get 10% each month off - so I tend to use that for the week I get cleaning materials etc.  We installed solar panels (18) last year and have seen a reduction in our bills from what they were previously.   We've been very lucky in that our mortgage has been no interest for a couple of years.

[HappyHeart 14,320]

On 01/06/2023 at 20:31, simmo said:

socialism for ya.

Really?! Ok I'll go live in a mud hut. You seem to have a really one eyed view of social democracy. Socialism. Whatever you want to call it. Do you think socialism means no privately owned anything at all? I suggest you educate yourself instead of making unnecessary digs all the time. If you hadn't noticed, we live in a capitalist society and participation is demanded unless you stumble upon some windfall by chance or are born into generational wealth where options are broader. 

[Bobj 10,303]

1 hour ago, ali said:

We've certainly noticed the rise in food - I seem to be spending more and getting less at the supermarket.  I get my car insurance through woolies and as a result get 10% each month off - so I tend to use that for the week I get cleaning materials etc.  We installed solar panels (18) last year and have seen a reduction in our bills from what they were previously.   We've been very lucky in that our mortgage has been no interest for a couple of years.

I had 20 solar panels installed and have not had a bill for  over $20 since they were put on the roof, some 8 years ago. My weekly grocery bill averages $70 a week. So, I don’t see  much increase, except for fuel, as I have a 100 km round trip to Mackay every week, some times twice a week, depending on Dr appointments.

I totally empathise with those who have big mortgages and a child, or three to care for.. last Monday, at the check out of Woolies, the young lady in front of me paid over $240 for her weekly groceries. And she had a toddler in tow.

Cheers, Bobj.

 

 

[InnerVoice 1,021]

4 hours ago, Bobj said:

I had 20 solar panels installed and have not had a bill for  over $20 since they were put on the roof, some 8 years ago. My weekly grocery bill averages $70 a week. So, I don’t see  much increase, except for fuel, as I have a 100 km round trip to Mackay every week, some times twice a week, depending on Dr appointments.

I totally empathise with those who have big mortgages and a child, or three to care for.. last Monday, at the check out of Woolies, the young lady in front of me paid over $240 for her weekly groceries. And she had a toddler in tow.

Cheers, Bobj.

@Bobj that's an impressively-low weekly grocery bill, although I recall you're a talented fisherman so I'm guessing you never buy fish?!

We installed 7kW solar just a couple of months after we moved in and likewise have never had a bill over $50, although we've also received rebates during the summer quarters so it's pretty much averaged out to net zero. You have to feel for those back in the UK who're now paying thousands for their gas and lecky.