190 Offshore Visa Applicants

[Southlander]

Hi Brian, 

It's a painful wait. Most offshore are waiting +17 months, you just have to hang in there. 

No problem about your age, good thing you were invited and applied already. 

Keep us updated should you hear anything. 

[jdiane]

Yey, a thread for offshore applicants. The thing is I am pretty sure there was one a few months back, but it got buried I guess since we are all waiting and there's really not much we can post. So the topic is now somewhere down the list. If we can keep this afloat with anything under the sun about offshore 190 application, it would be highly appreciated.

Our subclass seem to be super last on the list. It breaks my heart to see onshore applications being approved 3mos since invite. What I would give to have applied a few weeks before this pandemic happened....

[nomadiccarpenter]

7 hours ago, jdiane said:

Yey, a thread for offshore applicants. The thing is I am pretty sure there was one a few months back, but it got buried I guess since we are all waiting and there's really not much we can post. So the topic is now somewhere down the list. If we can keep this afloat with anything under the sun about offshore 190 application, it would be highly appreciated.

Our subclass seem to be super last on the list. It breaks my heart to see onshore applications being approved 3mos since invite. What I would give to have applied a few weeks before this pandemic happened....

There was but it was changed to a 491 thread and we didn't feel welcome anymore! 

I believe you are right about offshores being dead last. Here's my speculation and it isn't good news if anyone is expecting a grant soon. Please don't hate me for this outlook, just trying to help people prepare for the worst. Let's screen capture this and check back post-border closures to see if I was right or wrong.

So here's the formula I've been working on when we would actually start seeing offshore grants. This is based on Australia's Four Phase reopening plan, the number of vaccinations to be administered and the number of Australian citizens waiting to catch a flight back.

My Super Duper Conservative Estimate reaching 70% vaccinated based on past rates:

August 2021 - Phase I

-Since March 15th 2021, 15% of population has been vaccinated. Let's assume 20% by August 15.
-That's 20% every five months, not considering this number increasing exponentially with new vaccine supplies and public demand.
-This would reach 80% by November '22, so 70% around September '22.

Optimistic Estimate: More vaccine supplies/boosters are delivered in 2021, demand picks up, hesitancy drops and Australia reaches 70% by March '22.

May 2022 - Phase II

-Average the above data and Phase II begins.
-Less lock downs, restoring arriving passenger caps at previous levels for unvaccinated returning travellers + larger caps for vaccinated returning travellers.
-Australian citizens gradually begin to come home in higher numbers.

August '22 - November '22 - Phase III

-Phase III begins, assuming no new variants scare the government into abandoning it's reopening plan. An election has happened so politicians are willing to take more risks and continue on regardless now that there hopefully enough vaccinations and immunity among the general public.
-More Australian citizens return home.
-Students and priority skilled offshore migrants gradually arrive late Phase III
-Airfare prices are high

January 2023 - March '23 - Phase IV

-After much protest, hunger strikes, and general pandemic fatigue, Australians have relatively no trouble getting home.
-Airfare demand is high the first half of 2023.

-Offshore student and general skilled visas are granted and offshore migrants who have been waiting three years or more arrive to Australia.
-Possibly no quarantine.

[jdiane]

5 hours ago, nomadiccarpenter said:

There was but it was changed to a 491 thread and we didn't feel welcome anymore! 

I believe you are right about offshores being dead last. Here's my speculation and it isn't good news if anyone is expecting a grant soon. Please don't hate me for this outlook, just trying to help people prepare for the worst. Let's screen capture this and check back post-border closures to see if I was right or wrong.

So here's the formula I've been working on when we would actually start seeing offshore grants. This is based on Australia's Four Phase reopening plan, the number of vaccinations to be administered and the number of Australian citizens waiting to catch a flight back.

My Super Duper Conservative Estimate reaching 70% vaccinated based on past rates:

August 2021 - Phase I

-Since March 15th 2021, 15% of population has been vaccinated. Let's assume 20% by August 15.
-That's 20% every five months, not considering this number increasing exponentially with new vaccine supplies and public demand.
-This would reach 80% by November '22, so 70% around September '22.

Optimistic Estimate: More vaccine supplies/boosters are delivered in 2021, demand picks up, hesitancy drops and Australia reaches 70% by March '22.

May 2022 - Phase II

-Average the above data and Phase II begins.
-Less lock downs, restoring arriving passenger caps at previous levels for unvaccinated returning travellers + larger caps for vaccinated returning travellers.
-Australian citizens gradually begin to come home in higher numbers.

August '22 - November '22 - Phase III

-Phase III begins, assuming no new variants scare the government into abandoning it's reopening plan. An election has happened so politicians are willing to take more risks and continue on regardless now that there hopefully enough vaccinations and immunity among the general public.
-More Australian citizens return home.
-Students and priority skilled offshore migrants gradually arrive late Phase III
-Airfare prices are high

January 2023 - March '23 - Phase IV

-After much protest, hunger strikes, and general pandemic fatigue, Australians have relatively no trouble getting home.
-Airfare demand is high the first half of 2023.

-Offshore student and general skilled visas are granted and offshore migrants who have been waiting three years or more arrive to Australia.
-Possibly no quarantine.

Actually, there was one more specifically for 190 but then because no new posts were added it got buried all the way down. But it was for all 190s onshore/offshore.

I have to admit your predictions are close to reality. Especially with the current situation in NSW and Victoria. Just hoping the increase in cases would encourage more people to get vaccinated though.

But it could all change once you factor in politics too. The federal elections haven't happened yet, so there's that. The pandemic has been a convenient tool for anyone to spin off their own agendas.  

It is so hard to wait in limbo. Sen. Nick is fighting for students, partners, parents, 485s and 489s stuck offshore. Nobody is fighting for 190s

[Marisawright]

6 hours ago, nomadiccarpenter said:

-Since March 15th 2021, 15% of population has been vaccinated. Let's assume 20% by August 15.
-That's 20% every five months,

It's 20% for the LAST five months, but bear in mind that for most of those five months, only people over 50 were even ALLOWED  to get vaccinated, unless they were nurses or carers.  So it's impossible to draw any conclusions from the speed of vaccination over that period.  

Things are going to stay fairly slow until October, because we've still got almost no supplies of Pfizer vaccine and everyone is terrified of the AZ vaccine due to all the media frenzy about blood clots. There is plenty of spare capacity to do vaccines - our mass vaccination Hubs are full of nurses sitting around doing nothing. So after October, I expect there will be a huge surge, if we get the supply we expect.

[Parley]

5 minutes ago, Marisawright said:

It's 20% for the LAST five months, but bear in mind that for most of those five months, only people over 50 were even ALLOWED  to get vaccinated, unless they were nurses or carers.  So it's impossible to draw any conclusions from the speed of vaccination over that period.  

Things are going to stay fairly slow until October, because we've still got almost no supplies of Pfizer vaccine and everyone is terrified of the AZ vaccine due to all the media frenzy about blood clots. There is plenty of spare capacity to do vaccines - our mass vaccination Hubs are full of nurses sitting around doing nothing. So after October, I expect there will be a huge surge, if we get the supply we expect.

We are getting 1 million doses of pfizer every week. Not exactly no supply.

[Marisawright]

13 minutes ago, Parley said:

We are getting 1 million doses of pfizer every week. Not exactly no supply.

We were getting only 300,000 doses a week just recently, and before then, it was even less. I believe the million doses a week is supposed to start this month which will make a difference. 

My main point to the OP is that you can’t deduce anything from the first five months of the rollout since many adults weren’t even allowed to get vaccinated if they wanted to. This month will give us a better idea

[Parley]

13 minutes ago, Marisawright said:

We were getting only 300,000 doses a week just recently, and before then, it was even less. I believe the million doses a week is supposed to start this month which will make a difference. 

My main point to the OP is that you can’t deduce anything from the first five months of the rollout since many adults weren’t even allowed to get vaccinated if they wanted to. This month will give us a better idea

This anecdotal view that you can't get any Pfizer is not true in reality.

Use this checker to find out where you can get it near you. https://covid-vaccine.healthdirect.gov.au/eligibility?lang=en

 

[Marisawright]

10 minutes ago, Parley said:

This anecdotal view that you can't get any Pfizer is not true in reality.

Use this checker to find out where you can get it near you. https://covid-vaccine.healthdirect.gov.au/eligibility?lang=en

 

That is now not then. And you note, under 40s still not allowed to get the Pfizer vaccine except for select groups. If supply is so plentiful why is that restriction in place?

[Parley]

54 minutes ago, Marisawright said:

That is now not then. And you note, under 40s still not allowed to get the Pfizer vaccine except for select groups. If supply is so plentiful why is that restriction in place?

I think those rules will be removed very soon. The previous idea was to vaccinate the most vulnerable first. That plan developed for Alpha variant and still makes sense to a degree but Delta spreads more easily through the younger groups so i think they will have to open up vaccination to everyone very soon.

I wouldn't be surprised if they announced that this week or next week and then the rush for Pfizer will be on in earnest.

[Marisawright]

14 minutes ago, Parley said:

I think those rules will be removed very soon. The previous idea was to vaccinate the most vulnerable first. That plan developed for Alpha variant and still makes sense to a degree but Delta spreads more easily through the younger groups so i think they will have to open up vaccination to everyone very soon.

I wouldn't be surprised if they announced that this week or next week and then the rush for Pfizer will be on in earnest.

Quite likely.  It's bleeding obvious that they'll raise the restrictions once supply really gets going.  Essentially, we're agreeing with each other that the last 5 months is no guide to how fast the rollout will go from September onwards.

I think I am more pessimistic than you about HOW fast it will go, but it's definitely going to improve from what it has been.

Edited August 3, 2021 by Marisawright

[nomadiccarpenter]

11 hours ago, Marisawright said:

It's 20% for the LAST five months, but bear in mind that for most of those five months, only people over 50 were even ALLOWED  to get vaccinated, unless they were nurses or carers.  So it's impossible to draw any conclusions from the speed of vaccination over that period.  

Completely forgot about that! Thank you. Again, super conservative, but definitely more than likely the timeline will be shorter than what I stated.

[Leo Gadzika]

Please add me on the Whatsapp group too Southlander.   I am an offshore 190 (SA)applicant. Lodged in Sept 2019, got a CO contact for my wife's English test and form 80 in March 2020 and no contact since. Dead silence, my immi account still shows Further Assessment. 

[Forry84]

Hi Folks,

Hope all is well with everyone.

I would be up for being added to a WhatsApp group if possible?  I am also an offshore 190 applicant but unlike most, mines was only lodged start of June this year so I have a long time to wait I guess compared to everyone else on this thread. Nevertheless it would be good to hear from everyone else how things are progressing.  

Only positive news I have is that my work had offered to give me a 6 months work visa but they couldn't guarantee I would be allowed to leave the country again to go home as the other expats they have working over there had the exemption requests knocked back. Something I couldn't risk seeing I have a young family at home, I would have considered it if I thought it might advance my chances of getting my grant sooner, but I don't see that it does benefit a 190 applicant.

[Marisawright]

2 minutes ago, Forry84 said:

Only positive news I have is that my work had offered to give me a 6 months work visa but they couldn't guarantee I would be allowed to leave the country again to go home as the other expats they have working over there had the exemption requests knocked back. Something I couldn't risk seeing I have a young family at home, I would have considered it if I thought it might advance my chances of getting my grant sooner, but I don't see that it does benefit a 190 applicant.

If you are in temporary accommodation in Australia, and you can prove that your normal residential address is in the UK, you don't need an exemption to leave the country. 

[jdiane]

So..... I saw an applicant (Cook) had his 190 application approved a couple days ago- ONSHORE..... after 2 YEARS....

Where does that leave us Offshore applicants?