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17 hours ago, Blue Flu said:

Once interest rates go up in The States and money becomes more expensive to borrow at the international level, Australia will have little choice. ANZ has already made the call that rates will rise before The Reserve Bank of Australia's 2024 has forecasted. One thing for certain they will rise. The government has placed far too much emphasis on housing, even to the point of relaxing Royal Commission recommendations into curtailing certain risky behaviour by brokers for example. Nobody knows how it will end. We have some examples like Ireland. But again little wes learnt there either, after some heavy losses experienced. I guess the banks feel they are too big to fail. Most likely scenario is those that borrowed with reckless abandon will be left to own devices and some sort of intervention will be necessary to stop a market crash.

Solid commentary there.

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11 hours ago, Blue Flu said:

Well more likely we'd be paying the banks  for the service of holding our money. It was the intervention by government into the market that created the problem we now face. (prices were falling, especially in WA, but believe in other places as well.) All government intervention does is to raise the prices accordingly. I don't think social housing has been a great success in Australia. What would be better is a change in attitude. Make Australia a feasible country to rent in  as in Europe. We need far better tenancy laws. People need to have the security of tenue. Not as present , six or twelve month leases with no idea if they will have continued tenancy at the end of that period. We need stable rents. Not dependent on the economy at any particular time in the cycle. 

Banks have far too much tied up in the housing market , together with the real estate industry enabling far too much influence over policy. Mortgage loans are easy bread and butter for the financial industry. Far too much invested in that. Sheer laziness and likely knowledge that tax payers will support bad policy in time of crisis. 

Not a question of doom mongers. The housing industry did decline rapidly in countries like Ireland and Spain. Some areas of USA as well, I believe. As mentioned WA saw considerable price deflation come the decline in resource demand. That has been turned around starting with state government intervention around extensions and later first home buyers yet again. 

If the market is not allowed to find its true worth, due to political intervention, just how will prices adjust?  It should be remembered the historical rate of interest rates is 7%. That used to be the figure suggested to make allowance for in times of lower rates. Usual economic policy has been ditched due to present policy to keep it afloat. 

The truth is property on an international scale is well over priced. It is a drain on the economy, being unproductive and limiting potential, due to high costs of recruiting staff to unaffordable cities.

I can see why stagnation would be the preferred option of many. Never a good feel paying of a mortgage on a property worth twenty per cent less than purchased. But of course once interest rates do head upwards, many will find themselves in a very difficult position. 

But a return to housing for their traditional reason as a place to live in rather than a vehicle to make obscene unearned money from should be welcomed imo. 

The government need to move away from incentivising buy to let by removing the rediculous tax breaks available. The U.K. have done a great job in this regard by stopping individuals from deducting mortgage interest from their buy to let profits as well as imposing additional stamp duty for folks buying additional properties. This has led to many buy to let investors (myself included) exiting the market as the returns arent worth the hassle. 

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4 hours ago, MaroubraAndy said:

The government need to move away from incentivising buy to let by removing the rediculous tax breaks available. The U.K. have done a great job in this regard by stopping individuals from deducting mortgage interest from their buy to let profits as well as imposing additional stamp duty for folks buying additional properties. This has led to many buy to let investors (myself included) exiting the market as the returns arent worth the hassle. 

Bit the problem then is that the government will have to build more social housing because there will be a shortage of rental properties 


Scot by birth, emigrated 1985 | Aussie husband applied UK spouse visa Jan 2015, granted March 2015, moved to UK May 2015 | Returned to Oz June 2016

"The stranger who comes home does not make himself at home but makes home itself strange." -- Rainer Maria Rilke

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2 hours ago, Marisawright said:

Bit the problem then is that the government will have to build more social housing because there will be a shortage of rental properties 

Governments over the past couple of decades should have built a lot more decent social housing.  It's a real problem for many low income renters here in Tassie.  There are a dozen small villa type houses (Social housing) being built here in Devonport just now.  Handy for shops, school etc.  There are also lots of small state housing developments scattered all around town - mixed in with private housing.  Seems to work well.  Lots more need to be built though.

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