Border opening now mid 2022

[Paul1Perth]

10 minutes ago, Graham Fletcher said:

According to Ernst Young, keeping the borders closed is costing the Australian economy over $7 billion a month!

We would cerainly be a richer country if they are right. 

I think all the people that would have gone away and spent heaps abroad, like we had plans to do, are just spending the money here. It's  making up for the lack of tourists.

Do Ernst &Young have any predictions on costs if we just opened up and let covid run rife and have to close everything up?

[Marisawright]

30 minutes ago, Graham Fletcher said:

According to Ernst Young, keeping the borders closed is costing the Australian economy over $7 billion a month!

But on the other hand, other studies show that our economy is doing better than many countries which didn't close their borders.    ALL countries are bleeding money due to the pandemic one way or the other. 

[Graham Fletcher]

On 31/05/2021 at 10:24, Paul1Perth said:

We would cerainly be a richer country if they are right. 

I think all the people that would have gone away and spent heaps abroad, like we had plans to do, are just spending the money here. It's  making up for the lack of tourists.

Do Ernst &Young have any predictions on costs if we just opened up and let covid run rife and have to close everything up?

You are missing my point. The abject failure to provide mass vaccinations (see the UK already at 50%+) is forcing the government to keep the borders closed and costing us, our taxes, $7 billion a month. As other countries vaccinate at far higher rates it is they who will benefit from the opening of borders and reap the rewards of a massive economic improvement. Most countries have recovered the GDP loss experienced last year and will charge ahead of us. All we have is staff shortages and vastly inflated property prices

[Graham Fletcher]

On 31/05/2021 at 10:40, Marisawright said:

But on the other hand, other studies show that our economy is doing better than many countries which didn't close their borders.    ALL countries are bleeding money due to the pandemic one way or the other. 

Most countries have caught up with us already - we got back to pre-Covid levels in April, so did the UK!

[MacGyver]

7 hours ago, Graham Fletcher said:

Most countries have caught up with us already - we got back to pre-Covid levels in April, so did the UK!

The Uk vaccine rollout has been fantastic, but I struggled to confirm the above statement. I may be wrong, but all the info I could locate suggests the Uk economy is not anticipated to return to pre pandemic levels until mid 2022.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57306596

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-economy-return-pre-covid-19-level-around-mid-2022-2021-04-13/

[Paul1Perth]

19 hours ago, Graham Fletcher said:

You are missing my point. The abject failure to provide mass vaccinations (see the UK already at 50%+) is forcing the government to keep the borders closed and costing us, our taxes, $7 billion a month. As other countries vaccinate at far higher rates it is they who will benefit from the opening of borders and reap the rewards of a massive economic improvement. Most countries have recovered the GDP loss experienced last year and will charge ahead of us. All we have is staff shortages and vastly inflated property prices

Mass vaccinations here still don't stop people coming in with it. The UK is already thinking they might have to push back their opening up because cases are going up again and the NHS is again under pressure.

Don't know who your "most countries" are? I can't think of one that is in a better situation than Aus.

There is a long way to go yet in this covid experience. Our vaccination rates are increasing all the time, nearly all our friends over 50 have had the first jab, my wife got her second yesterday. Must be getting close to opening up to the next bracket down. They still won't be in a rush to open borders though.

[Graham Fletcher]

[rtritudr]

[Paul1Perth]

On 02/06/2021 at 11:54, Graham Fletcher said:

Where would you rather be? Aus or UK.

[Graham Fletcher]

On 03/06/2021 at 15:14, Paul1Perth said:

Where would you rather be? Aus or UK.

Honestly? Neither

[Graham Fletcher]

2 minutes ago, Graham Fletcher said:

Honestly? Neither

 

On 03/06/2021 at 15:14, Paul1Perth said:

Where would you rather be? Aus or UK.

It's a bit like the old adage, we won the war but are losing the peace

[Marisawright]

On 03/06/2021 at 15:14, Paul1Perth said:

Where would you rather be? Aus or UK.

Wrong question, IMO.  Of course we're much more comfortable here right now, but that's not the point.   I don't think there's any argument that the UK government (and most of the rest of the world) made a mess of their early response to Covid while our border closure worked spectacularly well.  But we're resting on our laurels now.

If our government had got off its a*** and launched a vaccine rollout with the same efficiency as the UK, we'd be over 50% vaccinated by now, the current Melbourne lockdown wouldn't have been necessary, and we'd be well on our way to being able to opening more bubbles by the end of this year, instead of having to keep the borders closed for another year or more.

[Parley]

1 hour ago, Marisawright said:

Wrong question, IMO.  Of course we're much more comfortable here right now, but that's not the point.   I don't think there's any argument that the UK government (and most of the rest of the world) made a mess of their early response to Covid while our border closure worked spectacularly well.  But we're resting on our laurels now.

If our government had got off its a*** and launched a vaccine rollout with the same efficiency as the UK, we'd be over 50% vaccinated by now, the current Melbourne lockdown wouldn't have been necessary, and we'd be well on our way to being able to opening more bubbles by the end of this year, instead of having to keep the borders closed for another year or more.

Why would the current Melbourne lockdown be unnecessary if 50% were vaccinated?

Do you realise millions will probably refuse vaccination alltogether? The rush now is from people who obviously want vaccinations, but as in the US it will reach a point where that rush dries up and then it gets a lot harder.

Your theory that it could have been done a lot earlier is not true. Vaccines we tried to import from the EU were blocked. UK did not have this problem. We are producing AZ locally but that is only allowed for over 50s.

some see it as very selfish too, given many 3rd world countries are in extreme need of vaccines, more so than us.

Edited June 7, 2021 by Parley

[newjez]

1 hour ago, Parley said:

Why would the current Melbourne lockdown be unnecessary if 50% were vaccinated?

Do you realise millions will probably refuse vaccination alltogether? The rush now is from people who obviously want vaccinations, but as in the US it will reach a point where that rush dries up and then it gets a lot harder.

Your theory that it could have been done a lot earlier is not true. Vaccines we tried to import from the EU were blocked. UK did not have this problem. We are producing AZ locally but that is only allowed for over 50s.

some see it as very selfish too, given many 3rd world countries are in extreme need of vaccines, more so than us.

Because if you vaccinate those most vulnerable you dramatically reduce in hospital and deaths.

[Marisawright]

1 hour ago, Parley said:

Why would the current Melbourne lockdown be unnecessary if 50% were vaccinated?

Because that 50% would include all of the front line workers and all of the over 70's (and yes, I"m aware some of those would decline vaccination - but then it would've been their conscious decision to take their chances with Covid, so we should respect that decision and let them take their chances).

If the government knew that front line workers and the vulnerable were all protected, and therefore the risk of serious illness, death, and health system overload were all very low even if the virus spreads, they would be much less likely to lock down.  

The blocking of vaccines by the EU was not the main reason for the delay. That was trotted out as an excuse, but the fact is that if we had ordered earlier, our orders would've been delivered before the EU countries even thought of blocking shipments.  We also made absolutely no attempt to buy a third or fourth alternative vaccine (like Moderna) in spite of many epidemiologists saying it was dangerous to rely so heavily on the Astra Zeneca vaccine, in case there turned out to be problems (which there were, as you know).  Eventually, they ordered some Moderna but we were so late, that won't arrive till next year.

Edited June 7, 2021 by Marisawright

[Parley]

24 minutes ago, Marisawright said:

Because that 50% would include all of the front line workers and all of the over 70's (and yes, I"m aware some of those would decline vaccination - but then it would've been their conscious decision to take their chances with Covid, so we should respect that decision and let them take their chances).

If the government knew that front line workers and the vulnerable were all protected, and therefore the risk of serious illness, death, and health system overload were all very low even if the virus spreads, they would be much less likely to lock down.  

The blocking of vaccines by the EU was not the main reason for the delay. That was trotted out as an excuse, but the fact is that if we had ordered earlier, our orders would've been delivered before the EU countries even thought of blocking shipments.  We also made absolutely no attempt to buy a third or fourth alternative vaccine (like Moderna) in spite of many epidemiologists saying it was dangerous to rely so heavily on the Astra Zeneca vaccine, in case there turned out to be problems (which there were, as you know).  Eventually, they ordered some Moderna but we were so late, that won't arrive till next year.

That would make no difference. Lockdown would still be enacted.

I hope you are aware that even after your 2nd dose of Astra Zeneca you are only only about 59% protected against the Indian Delta variant. A lot better than nothing but this idea that being vaccinated means you can be free as a bird is simply untrue

(Pfizer is 88% effective against Delta which is a lot better).

Edited June 7, 2021 by Parley

[Marisawright]

5 minutes ago, Parley said:

That would make no difference. Lockdown would still be enacted.

I hope you are aware that even after your 2nd dose of Astra Zeneca you are only only about 59% protected against the Indian Delta variant. A lot better than nothing but this idea that being vaccinated means you can be free as a bird is simply untrue

(Pfizer is 88% effective against Delta which is a lot better).

Yes, and if we'd got off the starting blocks earlier, we'd have had a much larger supply of Pfizer and/or Moderna so a much larger proportion of that 50% would've been vaccinated with the more effective vaccine.  Remember, we didn't even start manufacturing the AZ vaccine till late March, but the vaccine rollout was supposesd to start (at the rate of 80,000 people a week) from late February.  The first 300,000 AZ doses came from overseas and were delivered on time.  Then there was a second shipment which was delayed by the EU.  

Notice it wasn 't Pfizer doses that were delayed: it was Astra Zeneca.  We're getting the Pfizer according to the agreed schedule, apparently - but the government refuses to say what that is.  All indications are that it's not very much.  

If we're saying that even with the vaccines, we can't open the borders, then Australia's borders will never open up.  Covid will never go away now, it's going to be like the flu - always with us.

[Parley]

One of the positive cases in Victoria, a 90 year old, is fully vaccinated. and some others have had one dose. The 90 year old although tested positive is asymptomatic supposedly.

So being vaccinated may not stop you getting covid at all but may stop you getting very sick. And you may still be able to transmit it to others if you test positive.

Still some unknowns at least to me.

[Marisawright]

15 minutes ago, Parley said:

So being vaccinated may not stop you getting covid at all but may stop you getting very sick.

That is exactly the experience overseas.  Vaccinations are stopping serious illness and deaths.  

[Paul1Perth]

7 hours ago, Parley said:

Why would the current Melbourne lockdown be unnecessary if 50% were vaccinated?

Do you realise millions will probably refuse vaccination alltogether? The rush now is from people who obviously want vaccinations, but as in the US it will reach a point where that rush dries up and then it gets a lot harder.

Your theory that it could have been done a lot earlier is not true. Vaccines we tried to import from the EU were blocked. UK did not have this problem. We are producing AZ locally but that is only allowed for over 50s.

some see it as very selfish too, given many 3rd world countries are in extreme need of vaccines, more so than us.

We gave 1.8 mil doses to PNG and there's hardly anyone willing to get it. Bet we gave some to the Solomons and a lot of other dependant Islands too.

[Dusty Plains]

6 hours ago, Marisawright said:

Yes, and if we'd got off the starting blocks earlier, we'd have had a much larger supply of Pfizer and/or Moderna so a much larger proportion of that 50% would've been vaccinated with the more effective vaccine.  Remember, we didn't even start manufacturing the AZ vaccine till late March, but the vaccine rollout was supposesd to start (at the rate of 80,000 people a week) from late February.  The first 300,000 AZ doses came from overseas and were delivered on time.  Then there was a second shipment which was delayed by the EU.  

Notice it wasn 't Pfizer doses that were delayed: it was Astra Zeneca.  We're getting the Pfizer according to the agreed schedule, apparently - but the government refuses to say what that is.  All indications are that it's not very much.  

If we're saying that even with the vaccines, we can't open the borders, then Australia's borders will never open up.  Covid will never go away now, it's going to be like the flu - always with us.

Frankly, I cannot see the logic in that statement.  I have no problem whatsoever with borders remaining closed. 10 years? Not a problem. Bring it on.

How can closed borders somehow suggest that "Covid will never go away" as a result of that particular strategy? By itself, possibly, but it still makes sense given that Australia's closed borders, both continental and state have been effective. Now however, we are no longer relegated within the predisposition of single-tactic strategy. We have a dual-pronged strategy namely, closed borders ( primary Covid strategy currently)  and vaccination ( secondary strategy as current).  My prediction is that both strategies will prevail however, and as time goes on, and nominally by mid 2020,  vaccination will have become by then, the primary repulse against Covid-19. Yet closed borders must remain as the back up arrangement. 

I have an upcoming appointment with my federal member of parliament, here in the offices of the federal electorate of Macquarie in NSW, whose office is only 10 minutes drive away.  On the basis that I have six grandchildren between the ages of 3 months and ten years I am concerned for them. Australia is being treated like a a bus station, or as a transit lounge for people exercising their rights as dual-citizens and seeking to avoid Covid-19 by returning "home".

They are already "home", and home is not Australia. I mean. who can blame them,? Yet I will be raising the fact that on the basis that the Delta Strain (nee Indian Strain) has come into Victoria, we are allowing dual-citizens to wander back into Australia like Brown's Cows as they did ten years ago. I will be clearly indicating that all dual-citizenship arrangements, which were never imagined to acquaint with Covid-19, be summarily suspended.   

  

Edited June 7, 2021 by Dusty Plains

[Nemesis]

12 minutes ago, Dusty Plains said:

Frankly, I cannot see the logic in that statement.  I have no problem whatsoever with borders remaining closed. 10 years? Not a problem. Bring it on.

How can closed borders somehow suggest that "Covid will never go away" as a result of that particular strategy? By itself, possibly, but it still makes sense given that Australia's closed borders, both continental and state have been effective. Now however, we are no longer relegated within the predisposition of single-tactic strategy. We have a dual-pronged strategy namely, closed borders ( primary Covid strategy currently)  and vaccination ( secondary strategy as current).  My prediction is that both strategies will prevail however, and as time goes on, and nominally by mid 2020,  vaccination will have become by then, the primary repulse against Covid-19. Yet closed borders must remain as the back up arrangement. 

I have an upcoming appointment with my federal member of parliament, here in the offices of the federal electorate of Macquarie in NSW, whose office is only 10 minutes drive away.  On the basis that I have six grandchildren between the ages of 3 months and ten years I am concerned for them. Australia is being treated like a a bus station, or as a transit lounge for people exercising their rights as dual-citizens and seeking to avoid Covid-19 by returning "home".

They are already "home", and home is not Australia. I mean. who can blame them,? Yet I will be raising the fact that on the basis that the Delta Strain (nee Indian Strain) has come into Victoria, we are allowing dual-citizens to wander back into Australia like Brown's Cows as they did ten years ago. I will be clearly indicating that all dual-citizenship arrangements, which were never imagined to acquaint with Covid-19, be summarily suspended.   

  

SO you actively propose stripping Australian citizenship from people who are dual, thus forcing us all to leave the country as we would no longer have any legal right to live here?

I had the same discussion with a colleague recently, he is well known at work for being a miserable racist cantankerous old twit. Never thought I would hear it from someone who should understand migration, visas and the need for the security of citizenship.

[Marisawright]

51 minutes ago, Dusty Plains said:

t I will be raising the fact that on the basis that the Delta Strain (nee Indian Strain) has come into Victoria, we are allowing dual-citizens to wander back into Australia like Brown's Cows as they did ten years ago. I will be clearly indicating that all dual-citizenship arrangements, which were never imagined to acquaint with Covid-19, be summarily suspended.   

  

So are you proposing that all British-Australian dual citizens should be forced to give up one or the other, or are you just aiming at brown-skinned folks?

[MacGyver]

4 hours ago, Dusty Plains said:

Frankly, I cannot see the logic in that statement.  I have no problem whatsoever with borders remaining closed. 10 years? Not a problem. Bring it on.

How can closed borders somehow suggest that "Covid will never go away" as a result of that particular strategy? By itself, possibly, but it still makes sense given that Australia's closed borders, both continental and state have been effective. Now however, we are no longer relegated within the predisposition of single-tactic strategy. We have a dual-pronged strategy namely, closed borders ( primary Covid strategy currently)  and vaccination ( secondary strategy as current).  My prediction is that both strategies will prevail however, and as time goes on, and nominally by mid 2020,  vaccination will have become by then, the primary repulse against Covid-19. Yet closed borders must remain as the back up arrangement. 

I have an upcoming appointment with my federal member of parliament, here in the offices of the federal electorate of Macquarie in NSW, whose office is only 10 minutes drive away.  On the basis that I have six grandchildren between the ages of 3 months and ten years I am concerned for them. Australia is being treated like a a bus station, or as a transit lounge for people exercising their rights as dual-citizens and seeking to avoid Covid-19 by returning "home".

They are already "home", and home is not Australia. I mean. who can blame them,? Yet I will be raising the fact that on the basis that the Delta Strain (nee Indian Strain) has come into Victoria, we are allowing dual-citizens to wander back into Australia like Brown's Cows as they did ten years ago. I will be clearly indicating that all dual-citizenship arrangements, which were never imagined to acquaint with Covid-19, be summarily suspended.   

  

The border closure is only justifiable until mass deaths are not a high probability. I have been a vocal supporter of closed borders, and will continue to be a vocal supporter for the rest of this year, but once everyone has been offered a vaccine the borders will reopen. Closed borders cannot and will not be a long term solution to a disease that will be akin to seasonal flu when the population is vaccinated.

The current outbreak in Melbourne should not be blamed on dual citizens exercising their right (that they have earned) to return to Australia. The issue is with a lack of purpose built, commonwealth funded and managed, quarantine facilities. The states are doing their best but hotels are not suitable for the job and ongoing outbreaks are inevitable. 

[MacGyver]

15 hours ago, Marisawright said:

Wrong question, IMO.  Of course we're much more comfortable here right now, but that's not the point.   I don't think there's any argument that the UK government (and most of the rest of the world) made a mess of their early response to Covid while our border closure worked spectacularly well.  But we're resting on our laurels now.

If our government had got off its a*** and launched a vaccine rollout with the same efficiency as the UK, we'd be over 50% vaccinated by now, the current Melbourne lockdown wouldn't have been necessary, and we'd be well on our way to being able to opening more bubbles by the end of this year, instead of having to keep the borders closed for another year or more.

I share your frustrations Marissa, the vaccine rollout has started poorly. I am encouraged with the recent uptake in vaccinations and the abc tracker calculates that at the current rate, everyone in Australia will have had the opportunity for two shots by March 2022. I expect things will get faster over the next few months, but will then slow down as all pro vaccine residents complete their shots and only the reluctant remain.

Even if everyone has only had one shot by December this year, the conversation will start shifting to the next steps and I believe the border will open in stages throughout the first half of 2022 (for countries meeting certain criteria). A shift in thinking will be needed within Australia before this happens as we are so used to zero cases, but will start seeing thousands of cases each week (but with only a few hospitalisations and rare deaths). When circa 70% of the population is vaccinated we shouldn’t be worried about Covid entering the country and media may start reporting only hospitalisation rather than daily cases at that time (as case numbers will become almost irrelevant)