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Australian and UK Covid Responses

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17 minutes ago, Marisawright said:

Where do you live?  Didn't you see the NSW press conference (which I watched) where they announced the good news that they were removing restrictions earlier than planned?

As for it being "too much of a coincidence" that the unvaccinated are excluded at 70% - well it could be coincidence, or it could be common bloody sense.

As I said earlier, there is no checklist of freedoms mentioned in Doherty, so it is not correct to claim as you did that the new NSW premier was "ignoring the vaccination thresholds" by restoring freedoms earlier than his predecessor would have done.  

Doherty made no mention of the exclusion of the unvaccinated at 70%.

Edited by DIG85

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8 minutes ago, DIG85 said:

But how does the removal of restrictions earlier than planned contradict Doherty (which is what you originally claimed)? 

Doherty made no mention of the exclusion of the unvaccinated at 70%.

You may be right, I don't know the detail of Doherty.  I do know that Perrotet has eased the restrictions that were planned by Gladys, as explicitly stated in this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/07/dominic-perrottet-speeds-up-pace-of-nsw-reopening-roadmap-doubling-home-visitors-from-monday

it's a widely held view in Australia that he has done this against the advice of his medical advisor,  I heard him being asked that direct question at the press conference and gave a typical politician's evasive response.  Other officials have claimed otherwise since then, but Perrotet's reaction was just too much of a giveaway. 

Like I said, exclusion of the unvaccinated at 70% is just common sense, especially for a cautious state like Victoria.  

 


Scot by birth, emigrated 1985 | Aussie husband applied UK spouse visa Jan 2015, granted March 2015, moved to UK May 2015 | Returned to Oz June 2016

"The stranger who comes home does not make himself at home but makes home itself strange." -- Rainer Maria Rilke

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1 minute ago, Marisawright said:

You may be right, I don't know the detail of Doherty.  I do know that Perrotet has eased the restrictions that were planned by Gladys, as explicitly stated in this article:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/07/dominic-perrottet-speeds-up-pace-of-nsw-reopening-roadmap-doubling-home-visitors-from-monday

it's a widely held view in Australia that he has done this against the advice of his medical advisor,  I heard him being asked that direct question at the press conference and gave a typical politician's evasive response.  Other officials have claimed otherwise since then, but Perrotet's reaction was just too much of a giveaway. 

Like I said, exclusion of the unvaccinated at 70% is just common sense, especially for a cautious state like Victoria.  

 

We'll see whether he is right or wrong, and he will be held to account for it at the next election.

It is fair to say though that health advice is always going to err on the conservative side. I recall modelling about a month ago from one of the unis or institutes which claimed that NSW was on track to open up at 70% with 2,000-3,000 cases per day. I even heard 10,000 cases a day being mooted. In fact, on Monday, the day NSW re-opened , the state recorded just 360 cases.

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1 minute ago, DIG85 said:

We'll see whether he is right or wrong, and he will be held to account for it at the next election.

People have such short memories, I wonder if he will.  But yes, we will see if he is right or wrong.  Victoria is a few weeks behind, although vaccination numbers are rocketing now, so we've got time to see how NSW plays out before we open up.  

Victoria has been insistent on following the medical advice all along, so I will certainly be surprised if they follow Perrotet's version (huge weddings, singing in church etc).

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Scot by birth, emigrated 1985 | Aussie husband applied UK spouse visa Jan 2015, granted March 2015, moved to UK May 2015 | Returned to Oz June 2016

"The stranger who comes home does not make himself at home but makes home itself strange." -- Rainer Maria Rilke

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15 hours ago, Robert Dyson said:

I bet it wasn't as satisfying as my haircut, the poor bloke had a lot to sweep up yesterday

I'll go in to my local hairdresser soon  I can cut it myself but I can't trim my beard as well as she can, nor my eyebrows. She is busy this week, hard-working Chinese lady who operates 7 days.

Why is it that when you get old hair stops growing on your head but is a jungle on yr eyebrows,  nose, and maybe ears?

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18 hours ago, DIG85 said:

Doherty was very vague about the types of restrictions that would be lifted at 70% and 80%. It is striking that the NSW and Victoria roadmaps at each threshold are so similar. For example, the exclusion of the unvaccinated from freedoms at 70% - that was straight out of the NSW playbook and is too much of a coincidence.

Doherty did not produce a checklist of freedoms at each threshold. So I don't agree that the NSW premier has speeded up the removal of restrictions before the agreed vaccination thresholds have been reached. Which freedoms have been restored that contradict Doherty? Victoria most likely looked at NSW's roadmap, perhaps tweaked it slightly, but were always going to follow it reasonably closely.

It's pretty common sense stuff so I'd be surprised if each states plans weren't very similar.

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17 hours ago, Robert Dyson said:

Covid: UK start to pandemic worst public health failure ever, MPs say

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58876089

Cross party committees, but obviously a prelude to the full public enquiry next year which will include a lot more on victim impact.

https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/7496/documents/78687/default/

 

Did they really need a cross party commitee to come to that conclusion😆.

What surprises me is that newsreaders and commentators act like it's unexpected news.

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16 hours ago, DIG85 said:

If early and hard lockdowns (in advance of mass cases and deaths being recorded) worked to reduce the overall death toll by thousands, as is claimed in the report, then you would expect to see consistent correlation between those countries and states which imposed stricter lockdowns, earlier lockdowns and longer lockdowns and better health outcomes.

The data doesn’t show that. What we instead see are countries that get exposed early on having very high death outcomes initially and then over time, other countries are exposed and, regardless of their initial response or successes, they too start to see deaths increase. 

It is pointless focussing on just one stage of the pandemic and drawing conclusions from a period of several weeks in what is a two year (or longer) process. To give an example, Czechia locked down early in Spring 2020 (early in the context of its phase of the epidemic). It won plaudits for its approach and “proved” that lockdowns and mask mandates worked because it had a relatively benign experience of the first wave. Yet now, 18 months later it has one of the worst per capita death tolls in the world.

The WHO had a pandemic plan prior to Covid and it did not include lockdowns. Plans were abandoned when western governments were surprised to discover that they could get away with Chinese style control and rather enjoyed the power that this brought.

There is still no evidence for the effectiveness of lockdown and there was no discernable data difference between countries according with strict and less strict rules.

However what is beyond question is the collateral damage caused by lockdowns: mental health issues increase, more domestic violence, sections of the economy destroyed, serious disease undiagnosed, lost years of education.

Mate, we are living with the effectiveness of lockdown and it's been excellent.

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14 hours ago, DIG85 said:

It's extremely difficult to compare cities like Melbourne and Sydney (each with a population of 5 million, and far more densely populated) with other Australian capital cities. I am not aware of any city in the world with populations of that size which has managed to contain Delta.

Due to the unique geography of Australia, I don't think this country (or New Zealand) is a particularly useful example.

Melbourne got down to zero cases on I think it was August 4, and then cases exploded again, which suggests containing delta back in May was down to luck.

Any City in China would do.

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5 hours ago, Robert Dyson said:

I think the report says they were surprised that the UK population was well-behaved and compliant and actually wanted to do the right thing, because they had assumed they would be unruly and non-compliant.   They never imposed any sort of "Chinese style control" in the UK because they never had the systems, the leadership, the infrastructure, service support, or plans in place.

China was the only place to impose Chinese style control. 

I know we've been pretty compliant here but they weren't going round welding bars on windows.

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50 minutes ago, Paul1Perth said:

Mate, we are living with the effectiveness of lockdown and it's been excellent.

Sorry, comparisons between the UK and Perth or China are just pointless. 

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Elections are forward looking things, a contest between the incumbent's ideas for the future and the opposition's ideas for the future. Bill Shorten learned this hard lesson at his last election.

Any election in mid to late 2022 or beyond probably won't have much to do with covid at all. Why would a 1 in 100 year event that has just happened and been navigated be an issue for the next 3 year electoral cycle?

Like a tennis match, you don't have to be the best player in the country, all you have to do is beat your opponent on the day you play him.


Buy a man eat fish. The Day, Teach Man, to lifetime.      - Joe Biden.

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4 hours ago, MARYROSE02 said:

I'll go in to my local hairdresser soon  I can cut it myself but I can't trim my beard as well as she can, nor my eyebrows. She is busy this week, hard-working Chinese lady who operates 7 days.

Why is it that when you get old hair stops growing on your head but is a jungle on yr eyebrows,  nose, and maybe ears?

I did my own a few weeks ago in front of the mirror. I have clippers so all i can do is basically give myself a number 2 all over.

But hard to see the back so don't know how patchy it is back there. Out of sight out of mind. Eyebrows are easy enough just use a razor.


Buy a man eat fish. The Day, Teach Man, to lifetime.      - Joe Biden.

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2 hours ago, Paul1Perth said:

It's pretty common sense stuff so I'd be surprised if each states plans weren't very similar.

I'm not sure that things like allowing 100 people at weddings and allowing singing in churches at only 70% vaccinated is a good idea (which is what NSW has done).  We've all heard how singing especially is a huge Covid spreader.


Scot by birth, emigrated 1985 | Aussie husband applied UK spouse visa Jan 2015, granted March 2015, moved to UK May 2015 | Returned to Oz June 2016

"The stranger who comes home does not make himself at home but makes home itself strange." -- Rainer Maria Rilke

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46 minutes ago, Parley said:

I did my own a few weeks ago in front of the mirror. I have clippers so all i can do is basically give myself a number 2 all over.

But hard to see the back so don't know how patchy it is back there. Out of sight out of mind. Eyebrows are easy enough just use a razor.

I recommend Remington Turbo Clippers.  You can't go wrong, because they're designed so you can't get the angle wrong.  You hold it in the palm of your hand.

I bought them for my husband but I now use them myself, too.   I cut his hair with a 4 all over, then trim the sides with a 2.   He has done it himself a couple of times but I think he likes the attention of me doing it, LOL.  

For me, I pull my top hair up into a ponytail and trim the sides and back with the longest comb, then trim the rest of my hair with scissors. 

https://www.shavershop.com.au/remington/rapid-cut-turbo-010430.html

https://youtu.be/VjxqVK21-HE

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Scot by birth, emigrated 1985 | Aussie husband applied UK spouse visa Jan 2015, granted March 2015, moved to UK May 2015 | Returned to Oz June 2016

"The stranger who comes home does not make himself at home but makes home itself strange." -- Rainer Maria Rilke

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8 hours ago, DIG85 said:

Comparisons with China, a country that welded apartment doors shut to contain COVID, are absurd. And do you actually believe anything that comes out of that country? Do you actually believe the statistics which suggest that China has done relatively well? Do you seriously think its response would have been acceptable in the west?

I still can't believe people are holding up the Chinese model of fighting COVID.

ahem...you said you were "not aware of any city in the world with populations of that size which has managed to contain Delta", so i was just pointing out you are wrong by forgetting the world's biggest population.  

Now you're saying not to compare with China, you don't believe anything they say, and they "welded apartment doors shut", which is highly dubious and probably localised.  I certainly know of nobody who was locked in an apartment with welded doors, standard practice before the existence of testing was one visit outside each day with temperature test on re-entry.   

Even if i accept this absurd simplistic characterisation of a country with 1.4 billion people, do you think what the Chinese did was worse than sending thousands of infected old people away from hospital to spread the disease and kill to the tune of 20,000 in the first wave, and more in subsequent waves even after they knew what they'd done the first time?  Which is actually worse in your eyes? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, DIG85 said:

Most of the Tory MPs were Remainers who had been fired by Johnson, or opponents of him. There's plenty of good reasons for being a Remainer and opposing Johnson, but I suspect it somewhat coloured their view of his performance. Here is an extract from an article today:

<snip giant text>

The evidence that the committee bases it's report on was not provided by the MP's sitting on those committees, in case you were unaware.

If you would like to read the evidence it starts on Page 139 with two pages of links to transcripts of verbal/video interviews from all the main players, and completes with 110 written witness submissions from a very wide range of individuals and affected organisations.  It will take you some time to go through.

It's interesting that you don't believe anything that comes of China and that they welded the populations door shut to prevent them escaping, but you also don't believe masses of written eveidence obtained by a collection of UK parliamentary commitees either?  

It sounds as if you want us to believe that nothing went wrong and nobody could have done any better, even thought it did and they bloody well should have. 

 

  

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, DIG85 said:

Sorry, comparisons between the UK and Perth or China are just pointless. 

Comparing the UK with anybody is pointless in your eyes because you're looking for an excuse for everything,  but yes, the respective mortality rates do make them incomparable in this instance.

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1 minute ago, Robert Dyson said:

The evidence that the committee bases it's report on was not provided by the MP's sitting on those committees, in case you were unaware.

If you would like to read the evidence it starts on Page 139 with two pages of links to transcripts of verbal/video interviews from all the main players, and completes with 110 written witness submissions from a very wide range of individuals and affected organisations.  It will take you some time to go through.

It's interesting that you don't believe anything that comes of China and that they welded the populations door shut to prevent them escaping, but you also don't believe masses of written eveidence obtained by a collection of UK parliamentary commitees either?  

It sounds as if you want us to believe that nothing went wrong and nobody could have done any better, even thought it did and they bloody well should have. 

 

  

 

 

 

 

You can draw any conclusion you want from the evidence.

I'd still like to understand the logical contortions that allow the MPs to argue that the UK government should have challenged its scientific advisers when the latter did not push for lockdown in March 2020; but then criticise the government for failing to follow its scientific advisers when the latter argued for lockdown in September 2020. Until that logical contortion is explained, I will regard the report as highly dubious.

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9 minutes ago, Robert Dyson said:

Comparing the UK with anybody is pointless in your eyes because you're looking for an excuse for everything,  but yes, the respective mortality rates do make them incomparable in this instance.

Do you have any confidence in the mortality rates that come out of China? Given that they got us into this mess, that they lied to the WHO at the start of the pandemic and have been lying to the world pretty much ever since.

I think you are extremely naive if you trust any info that comes out of China.

Edited by DIG85

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52 minutes ago, Robert Dyson said:

ahem...you said you were "not aware of any city in the world with populations of that size which has managed to contain Delta", so i was just pointing out you are wrong by forgetting the world's biggest population.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obviously, I was excluding cities with governments that shoot political protestors and weld apartment doors shut (a fact that it is easily verifiable on the internet). I was also excluding cities with governments that blatantly lie to intergovernmental organisations and routinely publish false information and data. 

I assumed that those exclusions were self-evident, but clearly my bad. Apologies.

And can you please cite evidence that Nanjing did actually contain Delta back in August. Not "evidence" from the Chinese authorities; proper, independent, third party evidence please.

 

Edited by DIG85

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23 hours ago, DIG85 said:

Doherty was very vague about the types of restrictions that would be lifted at 70% and 80%. It is striking that the NSW and Victoria roadmaps at each threshold are so similar. For example, the exclusion of the unvaccinated from freedoms at 70% - that was straight out of the NSW playbook and is too much of a coincidence.

Doherty did not produce a checklist of freedoms at each threshold. So I don't agree that the NSW premier has speeded up the removal of restrictions before the agreed vaccination thresholds have been reached. Which freedoms have been restored that contradict Doherty? Victoria most likely looked at NSW's roadmap, perhaps tweaked it slightly, but were always going to follow it reasonably closely.

The National Plan was agreed by the states, but's it important to note that a plan is not a schedule, or a program.  It can be a written document with no dates in it.  You create the schedule or roadmap from the plan and you deviate from that to satisfy your local environment and dependencies....so obviously these "roadmaps" are similar because they are based on a shared and agreed National Plan, but they do not have to be identical.  It is not "too much of coincidence" to see a similarity if they're reading from the same plan.

I think what other posters have mentioned to you is that the NEW NSW PM has deviated from the roadmap provided by the PREVIOUS NSW PM by changing the dependencies to unlock, thus they have removed restrictions earlier than their own schedule by changing the requirement from what it was a week ago. But they haven't deviated from the National Plan, which was deliberately non-prescriptive anyway. 

 

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1 minute ago, Robert Dyson said:

The National Plan was agreed by the states, but's it important to note that a plan is not a schedule, or a program.  It can be a written document with no dates in it.  You create the schedule or roadmap from the plan and you deviate from that to satisfy your local environment and dependencies....so obviously these "roadmaps" are similar because they are based on a shared and agreed National Plan, but they do not have to be identical.  It is not "too much of coincidence" to see a similarity if they're reading from the same plan.

I think what other posters have mentioned to you is that the NEW NSW PM has deviated from the roadmap provided by the PREVIOUS NSW PM by changing the dependencies to unlock, thus they have removed restrictions earlier than their own schedule by changing the requirement from what it was a week ago. But they haven't deviated from the National Plan, which was deliberately non-prescriptive anyway. 

 

At last - we agree. Nothing in what you write contradicts anything I've said.

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7 minutes ago, DIG85 said:

I think you are extremely naive if you trust any info that comes out of China.

I don't, but neither am i unbalanced to the point of blatant bias and prejudice, as your subsequent post makes clear.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Robert Dyson said:

I don't, but neither am i unbalanced to the point of blatant bias and prejudice, as your subsequent post makes clear.

 

 

I will always be biased and prejudiced against a communist state which shoots political protestors and lies all the time. I make no apology for that. It is an evil regime.

I'm pleased to note that you now appear to doubt the mortality rates coming out of China though.

And I will repeat what I have previously said, and will continue to say: comparisons with China are not just pointless, but stupid.

Edited by DIG85

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