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Australian and UK Covid Responses

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24 minutes ago, Tulip1 said:

I meant the way some talk you’d think people living in the UK are living in some kind of apocalypse.  Perhaps I didn’t word it well but I didn’t mean people living in Australia are.  Yes it’s not been great here but people are living normal lives (some have sadly suffered job/business losses) but some there seem to think it must be unbearable in the UK.  It certainly wasn’t a dig,  more a lighthearted comment that some people had spoken to my son over there and expressed a kind of horror his family lived in the UK and were like “our thoughts are with them” (like we are in end of life or something)  I think it’s fair to say people in both countries are fed up with it all.  
 

Just re-read my previous comment and I definitely put its like I am living in an apocalypse (no mention of people in Australia) and that comment followed me saying about my son mentioning I live in the UK so I’m sure it didn’t read like I meant people there are. 

There are always people like that Tulip    .......................  "our thoughts and prayers are with you"   .............  I know what you meant but honestly most people I know have family/friends in the UK and know what is going on there.  Some people do like a bit of drama though.  It's OK for me to be so blase about it as nobody I know in the UK has been affected that much.  They are on farms/small holdings.  My sister found it a bit harder as she lives in the middle of Edinburgh and does like to get out and about and she's used to the lots of activities that city has to offer.  All that came to a stand still which she soon got jack of.  Things are now far better.  As I've stated before, life in our wee bubble in Tassie is as if Covid doesn't exist.  Hope it stays like that!

 

 

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5 hours ago, Dusty Plains said:

I guess it must be that a point of view can be sourced from a variety of references. My reference is here:

• COVID-19 deaths per capita by country | Statista 

You can check it out if you like. I am not interested in having a pointless discussion about people dying.

Checked it out, deaths in the last 7 days per million 11.63 in the UK. That is 0.001163%. You can't argue with math's so your right, no discussion to have its pure fact!

 

6 hours ago, Marisawright said:

What hysteria?  I'm with FirstWorldProblems, I'm far more worried about the long-term effects of Covid. I think that's a time bomb that will eventually explode and I'd rather it wasn't me.

So you would rather the disruption and the future of every young person be at risk as you are worried that you may or may not get long-term effects that are not fully proven yet. Where the statistics are skewed in that even symptoms past 3 weeks count as long covid. I understand the situation isn't as black and white as I make out, I simply state the figures to give some perspective. I'm young, listened, got vaccinated but still having my life disrupted and my children's future at risk and for what? Those statistics I quoted above!

I sympathize with people like @BusbyBoo and I hope his parents have a speedy recovery, some are unfortunately going to be poorly with it. But the risk is not being balanced properly by any means!

I'll finish with another stat, 12 - 15 year old's are to be vaccinated. Per 100,000 this prevents approximately 2 people entering intensive care they estimate. The risk 3 - 17 cases of myocarditis. What sane person looking at those figures would allow their child to get the vaccine? Wait...they can't even stop them.   

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15 hours ago, simmo said:

The Brits have always been more stoic than the aussies.  I was shocked to see how much aussies like to be wrapped in cotton wool and always need permission to do anything.

Not saying aussies are wimps BTW 

Australia has little history of social unrest, violent protest, mob rampage or rule breaking, they are very well behaved, let a lot ride, keep things to themselves and rarely show public displeasure.....which is the very meaning of stoic.  A lot of the time they seem passionless about something that would really rankle in the UK.  Justin Langer often talks about the "she'll be right" attitude in Australia which annoys the hell out of him.

It is the British who are far more likely to show anger and break rules openly, so the very opposite of what stoic means.

 

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2 hours ago, Tulip1 said:

 expressed a kind of horror his family lived in the UK and were like “our thoughts are with them”

are you sure they were referring to covid ? 🙂

 

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16 minutes ago, Craig Colas said:

So you would rather the disruption and the future of every young person be at risk as you are worried that you may or may not get long-term effects that are not fully proven yet. Where the statistics are skewed in that even symptoms past 3 weeks count as long covid. I understand the situation isn't as black and white as I make out, I simply state the figures to give some perspective. I'm young, listened, got vaccinated but still having my life disrupted and my children's future at risk and for what? Those statistics I quoted above!

We can only expect proof from mathematics. In science we rely on evidence and there is an abundance of evidence that long Covid is real.  You setting a false bar height of "fully proven" doesn't change that.

We all hate how disruptive this experience is.  We are all frustrated at how it's been mismanaged. We all want life back to normal.  But we can't ignore the evidence in front of our eyes.  In the UK cases continue upwards, hospitalisations continue upwards and are nearing the kind of danger level where the system won't cope.  If it collapses, the pain will be far worse than the disruption we're experiencing today.   

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British  | Lived in Australia 2001-02 on 457   | Married Aussie wife & moved back to UK | Plan to return to Sydney 2026 when all kids have finished school

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2 hours ago, BusbyBoo said:

Just thought I’d chime in….. as discussed we can’t avoid this virus, I think UK, USA etc is where we can expect to be in a few months

….. my very elderly parents, UK, both have been vaccinated and they’re now both in hospital with Covid. Mum completely housebound and Dad had only been out once to get band aids and wore a mask. I am so grateful they’re vaccinated. Both had completely stopped eating I guess that’s the taste symptom.

very sorry to hear that.  This is the very thing that worries me about my dad, he is keeping himself to himself but it's spreading everywhere now with no restrictions.  He goes out for his walk at 7am, avoids people, does his shopping once per week and stays the hell out of the way.  He said his neighbour called him yesterday to say their young son had caught covid, so would be playing in the garden for a few days so don't be tempted to lean over the fence or go and speak to him.

His neighbours are great, but there is a sense of inevitability about what's going on now.

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17 minutes ago, FirstWorldProblems said:

We can only expect proof from mathematics. In science we rely on evidence and there is an abundance of evidence that long Covid is real.  You setting a false bar height of "fully proven" doesn't change that.

We all hate how disruptive this experience is.  We are all frustrated at how it's been mismanaged. We all want life back to normal.  But we can't ignore the evidence in front of our eyes.  In the UK cases continue upwards, hospitalisations continue upwards and are nearing the kind of danger level where the system won't cope.  If it collapses, the pain will be far worse than the disruption we're experiencing today.   

January this year we was at 4,300 covid admissions a day. Data only goes up to 11th of September currently, but that figure is at 836 admissions a day. What danger level are we talking about? 

39,000 people in hospital in January with covid related illness at a given time. It's now down to 8,340. It was always going to go up when we relaxed restrictions and the curve of increased admissions currently is not in a sharp rise. 

Healthcare in the UK | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

I only look at facts and evidence, its the only thing I base anything on. Admittingly I may not be the most emphatic person, but these things need to be looked at from a rational point of view.  

 

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20 minutes ago, Craig Colas said:

January this year we was at 4,300 covid admissions a day. Data only goes up to 11th of September currently, but that figure is at 836 admissions a day. What danger level are we talking about? 

39,000 people in hospital in January with covid related illness at a given time. It's now down to 8,340. It was always going to go up when we relaxed restrictions and the curve of increased admissions currently is not in a sharp rise. 

Healthcare in the UK | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

I only look at facts and evidence, its the only thing I base anything on. Admittingly I may not be the most emphatic person, but these things need to be looked at from a rational point of view.  

 

January is the middle of winter.

Now is the middle of summer.

Is that rational enough for you?

 

 


Nearly there! Don't drop the ball now guys! Vaccines are weeks away. Stay safe!

 

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On 15/09/2021 at 07:24, Paul1Perth said:

Oh I don't know, plenty of us have highlighted where NSW slipped up and messed it up for thousands, maybe millions.

The borders being closed is what has helped us have a normal life whilst most of the rest of the world were locked down for months.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-58540905

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20 hours ago, MacGyver said:

Genuine question, do you know how this compares to typical death rates for flu each year? I’m assuming it’ll still be quite a bit higher but just for a reference point

I was looking for that data from an Australian perspective and I think Australian flu deaths averaged  somewhere in the region of 16-25 per week, depending on how bad a flu season it was. With restrictions in place I think (think!) NSW had about 25 Covid deaths in a month. I’m very interested to see where those numbers go as fully vaccinated numbers increase and restrictions decrease. I read those figures a few weeks back so I might remember them incorrectly or they may be out of date by now

I think we will see flu deaths rising quite a lot over the coming months.....18 months locked away with no mixing.....immunity to flu and various other viruses has taken a tumble....I think we will see many more people dying of various other viruses than in previous years but we will all still be terrified of covid.

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2 hours ago, FirstWorldProblems said:

We can only expect proof from mathematics. In science we rely on evidence and there is an abundance of evidence that long Covid is real.  You setting a false bar height of "fully proven" doesn't change that.

We all hate how disruptive this experience is.  We are all frustrated at how it's been mismanaged. We all want life back to normal.  But we can't ignore the evidence in front of our eyes.  In the UK cases continue upwards, hospitalisations continue upwards and are nearing the kind of danger level where the system won't cope.  If it collapses, the pain will be far worse than the disruption we're experiencing today.   

whilst testing one of  the various vaccines for Covid it was noted that a third of the participants experienced the exact same side effects of the vaccine as reported by others even tho they had recieved the placebo.....sore arm....head ache....tiredness etc etc.....it was put down to the over reporting of the virus and long covid by the media.....its impossible to calculate the numbers that suffer it and to what degree because these symptoms can be suffered for a multitude of reasons not necessarily connected to covid.....it is frankly ridiculous to carry on restricting peoples lives because of the fear of long covid.....but in saying that nothing surprises me anymore when looking around at various countries/governments responses to this virus.

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2 hours ago, Craig Colas said:

January this year we was at 4,300 covid admissions a day. Data only goes up to 11th of September currently, but that figure is at 836 admissions a day. What danger level are we talking about? 

39,000 people in hospital in January with covid related illness at a given time. It's now down to 8,340. It was always going to go up when we relaxed restrictions and the curve of increased admissions currently is not in a sharp rise. 

Healthcare in the UK | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

I only look at facts and evidence, its the only thing I base anything on. Admittingly I may not be the most emphatic person, but these things need to be looked at from a rational point of view.  

 

Medical royal colleges have long held the position that 85% bed occupancy is the safe level.  The government believes that level is 92%.  Regardless of where you put the line, everyone agrees that there is a threshold, above which performance deteriorates - waiting times rise and quality suffers.  As I'm sure everyone knows, over the past 30 years the total number of beds in Acute settings has fallen in England from 180,000 to 100,000, whilst over the same period the population has grown and has aged and is using the English NHS more.  Day-only beds have risen from 2000 in 1988 to 13,000 in 2020, reflective of the drive to efficiency.  Getting people in and out on the same day of their procedure costs less.

But when you overlay an unplanned mass event that causes additional overnight stays(and in the case of Covid it is many nights stay), then the system can't cope.  It wasn't designed to.

Hence the focus on measures to keep people out.

Right now half of Trusts are above the safe threshold and that includes 6 trusts at 99-100%.  The trend line is going up.  What happens when flu season hits?

So it's not about the number of Covid cases requiring hospitalisation per se.  It's about how those Covid inpatient stays take the hospital to unsafe levels, threatening the system with collapse - which is a dramatic word, but it means in this context "unable to serve demand".  You will literally have no room for anyone else and no staff to treat them.

 

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26 minutes ago, kungfustu said:

it is frankly ridiculous to carry on restricting peoples lives because of the fear of long covid

I'm as frustrated as anyone with the loss of liberty and the mismanagement by certain governments.  But in times of crisis you do have to act before the evidence is certain.  To do nothing only amplifies the crisis.   Which if I return to the purpose of this thread (comparing UK AUS Covid responses) is what the UK (esp. England) is currently doing and the growing evidence suggests it's not working - hospitalisations are growing, long-Covid is growing.

So it's not "fear of long covid" - it's a reality.   We can hope that it's a condition people can shake off in a reasonable amount of time, without losing their jobs, straining the NHS more and being confined to the sofa.   I can't help but think you'd have a different perspective if you were one of the 1 million people in the UK reporting they have long-Covid.

 

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13 minutes ago, kungfustu said:

....it is frankly ridiculous to carry on restricting peoples lives because of the fear of long covid.....but in saying that nothing surprises me anymore when looking around at various countries/governments responses to this virus.

far easier to just kill them off and fill your hospitals up with the rest eh?  The knock on effect to the other 5 million people who can't get routine hospital treatment is just an added bonus i suppose? Honestly, you wonder why you get ridiculed.

 

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56 minutes ago, kungfustu said:

I think we will see flu deaths rising quite a lot over the coming months.....18 months locked away with no mixing.....immunity to flu and various other viruses has taken a tumble....I think we will see many more people dying of various other viruses than in previous years but we will all still be terrified of covid.

Which is going to send hospitalisations soaring.  Since half of hospitals are already at unsafe occupancy levels, what should we do?


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1 minute ago, FirstWorldProblems said:

Which is going to send hospitalisations soaring.  Since half of hospitals are already at unsafe occupancy levels, what should we do?

just be stoic, it'll be no bother.

Actually the flu thing is very serious, for all the reasons you mention.  The other reason is that with an absence of flu this year, there is no data to predict the 3 most prevalent strains for  next year, and no material to make next year's vaccine from.  That would be the double whammy with lower natural immunity anyway. 

Australia would be hit harder than others, because of the covid emergence when it did, we've had 2 winters of almost non-existent flu while Europe has had 1 with the second coming up.  We are relying on data and material from this year's European flu season to make a vaccine very quickly before May 2022.  A morbid benefit of the opening up of Europe.

 

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27 minutes ago, FirstWorldProblems said:

Medical royal colleges have long held the position that 85% bed occupancy is the safe level.  The government believes that level is 92%.  Regardless of where you put the line, everyone agrees that there is a threshold, above which performance deteriorates - waiting times rise and quality suffers.  As I'm sure everyone knows, over the past 30 years the total number of beds in Acute settings has fallen in England from 180,000 to 100,000, whilst over the same period the population has grown and has aged and is using the English NHS more.  Day-only beds have risen from 2000 in 1988 to 13,000 in 2020, reflective of the drive to efficiency.  Getting people in and out on the same day of their procedure costs less.

But when you overlay an unplanned mass event that causes additional overnight stays(and in the case of Covid it is many nights stay), then the system can't cope.  It wasn't designed to.

Hence the focus on measures to keep people out.

Right now half of Trusts are above the safe threshold and that includes 6 trusts at 99-100%.  The trend line is going up.  What happens when flu season hits?

So it's not about the number of Covid cases requiring hospitalisation per se.  It's about how those Covid inpatient stays take the hospital to unsafe levels, threatening the system with collapse - which is a dramatic word, but it means in this context "unable to serve demand".  You will literally have no room for anyone else and no staff to treat them.

 

The system is not fit for purpose and hasn't been for a good while now. The NHS was a good idea but cuts, poor management and an increase in population as you say, has brought it to the brink of collapse, not covid. We can sit here and argue all day who is to blame, obviously we can't turn this into a political discussion. But this could be what we need to push it over the edge and into privatisation. No company would of ever have been run this badly and if they did they would of gone bust decades ago. It is a sinking money pit, failing everyone at a basic level now. 

I quoted how many are now staying in hospital "39,000 people in hospital in January with covid related illness at a given time. It's now down to 8,340." How long do you want restrictions in place for? Genuine question, until it's eradicated? What is the answer? 

Suicide rate hit 16.9 deaths per 100,000 in 2020. Dusty plains posted out some figures to me showing 11.63 deaths per a million due to covid currently. Can you see why I believe there is no justification for these measures.

 

 

 

 

 

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49 minutes ago, Craig Colas said:

Suicide rate hit 16.9 deaths per 100,000 in 2020. Dusty plains posted out some figures to me showing 11.63 deaths per a million due to covid currently. Can you see why I believe there is no justification for these measures.

You are wasting your time with this one…..there are heads so firmly buried in the sand on this website that they would need heavy lifting gear to raise them…..I could reel off 3 maybe 4….maybe more names of people currently posting on this thread that thought the connection between COVID and suicides was complete fiction…..suicide….domestic abuse…..didn’t exist…..some of them even thought that these poor souls would have probably done it anyway…

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1 hour ago, FirstWorldProblems said:

I'm as frustrated as anyone with the loss of liberty and the mismanagement by certain governments.  But in times of crisis you do have to act before the evidence is certain.  To do nothing only amplifies the crisis.   Which if I return to the purpose of this thread (comparing UK AUS Covid responses) is what the UK (esp. England) is currently doing and the growing evidence suggests it's not working - hospitalisations are growing, long-Covid is growing.

So it's not "fear of long covid" - it's a reality.   We can hope that it's a condition people can shake off in a reasonable amount of time, without losing their jobs, straining the NHS more and being confined to the sofa.   I can't help but think you'd have a different perspective if you were one of the 1 million people in the UK reporting they have long-Covid.

 

So you advocate closed borders….lockdowns…..business closures…..job losses and lives destroyed because you “think” long Covid “could” be a serious issue even tho the evidence is not there to prove it?

Sounds a bit like WMD….we invaded a country…..created a political vacuum that led to terrorist groups forming across the region and are still dealing with the loss of life and consequences today based on a “hunch” that saddam could muster up a few missiles in 15 minutes and threaten Israel and the west? Look how that ended up.

that is frankly a ridiculous thing to say.

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6 minutes ago, kungfustu said:

So you advocate closed borders….lockdowns…..business closures…..job losses and lives destroyed because you “think” long Covid “could” be a serious issue even tho the evidence is not there to prove it?

Sounds a bit like WMD….we invaded a country…..created a political vacuum that led to terrorist groups forming across the region and are still dealing with the loss of life and consequences today based on a “hunch” that saddam could muster up a few missiles in 15 minutes and threaten Israel and the west? Look how that ended up.

that is frankly a ridiculous thing to say.

This isn’t how discussion and debate works. When the evidence doesn’t align to your current perspective, you don’t ignore it, you don’t distort what the other party has said, you don’t scoff and you don’t revert to being rude to the people you are debating with. 
 

What you do is offer up evidence to support your view. If you cannot do that you reconsider your position.  

 

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3 hours ago, kungfustu said:

So you advocate closed borders….lockdowns…..business closures…..job losses and lives destroyed because you “think” long Covid “could” be a serious issue even tho the evidence is not there to prove it?

Sounds a bit like WMD….we invaded a country…..created a political vacuum that led to terrorist groups forming across the region and are still dealing with the loss of life and consequences today based on a “hunch” that saddam could muster up a few missiles in 15 minutes and threaten Israel and the west? Look how that ended up.

that is frankly a ridiculous thing to say.

That is taking strawman to a whole new level.

I'm not sure,

But I'm thinking that maybe we have just witnessed the first strawman in space.

How can anyone go from long covid to weapons of mass destruction is just beyond me.

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Nearly there! Don't drop the ball now guys! Vaccines are weeks away. Stay safe!

 

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4 hours ago, Craig Colas said:

The system is not fit for purpose and hasn't been for a good while now. The NHS was a good idea but cuts, poor management and an increase in population as you say, has brought it to the brink of collapse, not covid. We can sit here and argue all day who is to blame, obviously we can't turn this into a political discussion. But this could be what we need to push it over the edge and into privatisation. No company would of ever have been run this badly and if they did they would of gone bust decades ago. It is a sinking money pit, failing everyone at a basic level now. 

I quoted how many are now staying in hospital "39,000 people in hospital in January with covid related illness at a given time. It's now down to 8,340." How long do you want restrictions in place for? Genuine question, until it's eradicated? What is the answer? 

Suicide rate hit 16.9 deaths per 100,000 in 2020. Dusty plains posted out some figures to me showing 11.63 deaths per a million due to covid currently. Can you see why I believe there is no justification for these measures.

 

 

 

 

 

We have friends who are multi millionaires who were waiting for treatment with the NHS. I asked them why they didn't go private, and they said they believed in the NHS, and didn't think they should jump the queue.

I pointed out that they were blocking someone who couldn't afford to pay for it, and they weren't jumping the queue, just going in a different shorter queue.

They paid for it. The sooner this government encourages those who can afford private to pay for it, the better.

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Nearly there! Don't drop the ball now guys! Vaccines are weeks away. Stay safe!

 

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4 hours ago, kungfustu said:

You are wasting your time with this one…..there are heads so firmly buried in the sand on this website that they would need heavy lifting gear to raise them…..I could reel off 3 maybe 4….maybe more names of people currently posting on this thread that thought the connection between COVID and suicides was complete fiction…..suicide….domestic abuse…..didn’t exist…..some of them even thought that these poor souls would have probably done it anyway…

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(21)00087-9/fulltext

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n834

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56818876

https://www.samaritans.org/about-samaritans/research-policy/coronavirus-and-suicide/one-year-on-data-on-covid-19/what-do-we-know-about-coronavirus-and-suicide-risk/

This is another reason why you're jumping the gun, passing off personal opinion as fact, when the evidence suggests you are not an expert.  There is obviously, regret, depression and other things going on in the UK which are causing economic disruption and misery for hard working people, and a lot of previous assertions are being proven untrue in real time.  UK performance has been quite poor across multiple areas with an uncertain future in store for many.  This can all have an  adverse effect on mental health...but you provide no evidence whatsoever yet more loose talk.

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https://www.samaritans.org/about-samaritans/research-policy/suicide-facts-and-figures/latest-suicide-data/
 

It would also be interesting to see facts and figures for domestic violence as well. 
 

At the end of the day we are going to have to live with covid , and it pains me to say deaths will be collateral damage, we can’t do any more than get vaccinated at present to protect ourselves, even with the vaccination numbers in the uk we can see it is spreading at alarming rates. 
You either lockdown or get on with it ( after vacation of population)  I really fear the worse here in Australia what the reaction is going to be if numbers start mirroring uk after we hit the 80% target.  The politicians will be in melt down god help us all. 

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6 hours ago, kungfustu said:

So you advocate closed borders….lockdowns…..business closures…..job losses and lives destroyed because you “think” long Covid “could” be a serious issue even tho the evidence is not there to prove it?

Sounds a bit like WMD….we invaded a country…..created a political vacuum that led to terrorist groups forming across the region and are still dealing with the loss of life and consequences today based on a “hunch” that saddam could muster up a few missiles in 15 minutes and threaten Israel and the west? Look how that ended up.

that is frankly a ridiculous thing to say.

People don’t care if it’s not effecting them financially, if their job is ticking along as normal getting paid every week they don’t understand the strain it puts on relationships. They can put up with not going on holiday, or out for a meal , when you have to make a decision to either pay rent / mortgage or put food on table come back then and tell us lockdowns are ok. 

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