CANZUK freedom of movement

[Terence Rabe]

https://www.cityam.com/tony-abbott-uk-australia-freedom-of-movement-could-begin-on-1-january/

Does anyone have any idea in the likelihood of this happening? Specifically interested in hearing from agents who may have an inside track in changes to the law coming, or is it going to be another last minute surprise?

[Marisawright]

8 hours ago, Terence Rabe said:

https://www.cityam.com/tony-abbott-uk-australia-freedom-of-movement-could-begin-on-1-january/

Does anyone have any idea in the likelihood of this happening? Specifically interested in hearing from agents who may have an inside track in changes to the law coming, or is it going to be another last minute surprise?

This sounds like a beat-up to me.  You'll notice Tony Abbott talks about a "generous quota" - so it won't be a free-for-all - and also "for work, not welfare" which would be impossible to police unless it's all employer-sponsored visas (which means you're stuck with that employer and get deported if you lose the job).

[NicF]

11 hours ago, Terence Rabe said:

https://www.cityam.com/tony-abbott-uk-australia-freedom-of-movement-could-begin-on-1-january/

Does anyone have any idea in the likelihood of this happening? Specifically interested in hearing from agents who may have an inside track in changes to the law coming, or is it going to be another last minute surprise?

Almost zero.  Tony Abbott does not work for the Australian government and at the time the article was written wasn’t working for the UK one either.  Just him running his mouth off as normal.

[Skani]

12 hours ago, Terence Rabe said:

https://www.cityam.com/tony-abbott-uk-australia-freedom-of-movement-could-begin-on-1-january/

Does anyone have any idea in the likelihood of this happening?

A the time of the Brexit vote there was some kite-flying about free migration from UK to Australia.  The Oz government made it very clear then that it would not happen.   I think it would be even less likely now given the additional stress of Covid 19 on  unemployment  in Australia.    

[Marisawright]

I cannot imagine Australia ever agreeing to completely free movement (in the style of the EU arrangement), because they know Australia would be swamped with elderly people.  First, parents of migrants and second, retirees who can no longer go to Spain or Italy.  That would be transferring a huge burden to the Australian taxpayer.

  Whether we like it or not (and I speak as someone in my late 60's), we cost the taxpayer far more in medical costs than a young person.  Even if we are relatively healthy, we tend to have more preventive scans and medications. And when we get really old, it gets worse - health spending per person steeply increases after the age of 50, and  an 85-year-old man costs the NHS about seven times more on average than a man in his late 30s.  That cost would be transferred to Medicare. 

If similar numbers of elderly people would be moving to the UK, then it would be fair - but I think the traffic would be mostly one-way.

[newjez]

1 hour ago, Marisawright said:

I cannot imagine Australia ever agreeing to completely free movement (in the style of the EU arrangement), because they know Australia would be swamped with elderly people.  First, parents of migrants and second, retirees who can no longer go to Spain or Italy.  That would be transferring a huge burden to the Australian taxpayer.

  Whether we like it or not (and I speak as someone in my late 60's), we cost the taxpayer far more in medical costs than a young person.  Even if we are relatively healthy, we tend to have more preventive scans and medications. And when we get really old, it gets worse - health spending per person steeply increases after the age of 50, and  an 85-year-old man costs the NHS about seven times more on average than a man in his late 30s.  That cost would be transferred to Medicare. 

If similar numbers of elderly people would be moving to the UK, then it would be fair - but I think the traffic would be mostly one-way.

They don't have to give them free health care Marisa. Just change the law so only citizens and permanent residents can get free health care.

One man's burden is another man's industry. There's a lot of rich old people in the world looking to be fleeced.

[newjez]

2 hours ago, Skani said:

A the time of the Brexit vote there was some kite-flying about free migration from UK to Australia.  The Oz government made it very clear then that it would not happen.   I think it would be even less likely now given the additional stress of Covid 19 on  unemployment  in Australia.    

I think Australia has sufficient protections on its industry to protect its workforce. People see free movement as bad and see controlled movement as good.

Which is strange, because we always saw are free economies as good, and the controlled economies of Communist countries as bad and inefficient. Which they are.

Controlled immigration is the same. It can be very inefficient and open to political abuse.

[Marisawright]

4 hours ago, newjez said:

They don't have to give them free health care Marisa. Just change the law so only citizens and permanent residents can get free health care.

One man's burden is another man's industry. There's a lot of rich old people in the world looking to be fleeced.

They won’t change the law because they have experience of elderly people running out of money on such visas and then putting their sob story on the media to force the govt to let them stay. Not worth the negative publicity 

[newjez]

30 minutes ago, Marisawright said:

They won’t change the law because they have experience of elderly people running out of money on such visas and then putting their sob story on the media to force the govt to let them stay. Not worth the negative publicity 

Just make buying comprehensive medical insurance for their expected life a condition of entry. These aren't insurmountable problems.

[VERYSTORMY]

2 hours ago, newjez said:

Just make buying comprehensive medical insurance for their expected life a condition of entry. These aren't insurmountable problems.

No insurance company is going to offer you a 20 year cover for a one of fee. So, old person takes compulsory cover, then a year later says they can’t afford it . Deport them? 

[VERYSTORMY]

The reality is, this was an old news when I joined the forum. Never going to happen. Migration is a massive hot potato in every country. Not least Oz. Heck, I remember protests at Perth airport because of 457 holders. 

[Marisawright]

3 hours ago, newjez said:

Just make buying comprehensive medical insurance for their expected life a condition of entry. These aren't insurmountable problems.

So you'd ask them to pay a full premium upfront for medical insurance for the rest of their life?  That would be an interesting one.  

But you're assuming the Australian government would think it was worth the effort to create a special class of visa.

As VeryStormy says, immigration is a hot potato in every country now. Australia used to be eager for migrants but the tide of public opinion is turning, I think.  We're getting the same "they're taking our jobs" attitude that has existed in the UK and Europe for a long time now.  And governments these days are very sensitive to public opinion. 

The government needs skilled migrants so they'll be slower to shut down the skilled programs, in spite of public opinion - but it's easier to close the door on others.

Edited September 20, 2020 by Marisawright

[Terence Rabe]

Found this video in YouTube... suffice to say there’s lots of contradicting posts to be found, but the trend seems to be towards some change from the current setup. At the rate the U.K. Govt is fumbling Brexit who knows

 

[newjez]

2 hours ago, Marisawright said:

So you'd ask them to pay a full premium upfront for medical insurance for the rest of their life?  That would be an interesting one.  

But you're assuming the Australian government would think it was worth the effort to create a special class of visa.

As VeryStormy says, immigration is a hot potato in every country now. Australia used to be eager for migrants but the tide of public opinion is turning, I think.  We're getting the same "they're taking our jobs" attitude that has existed in the UK and Europe for a long time now.  And governments these days are very sensitive to public opinion. 

The government needs skilled migrants so they'll be slower to shut down the skilled programs, in spite of public opinion - but it's easier to close the door on others.

We're talking about wealthy pensioners Marisa. I don't think they are taking anyone's jobs. It's an industry, or a potential one. Probably better for countries in South East Asia or India, rather than Australia, as they have the low cost labour. But as an alternative to shipping migrants in, shipping the oldies out has merit. Many do it now anyway. Or did before brexit. If the government gave them a tax incentive it would even out the diametrics. 

[newjez]

3 hours ago, VERYSTORMY said:

No insurance company is going to offer you a 20 year cover for a one of fee. So, old person takes compulsory cover, then a year later says they can’t afford it . Deport them? 

The government would take it as a bond as a condition of entry. And yes, an insurance company would do that if they could do the rating on it. Yes it would be a new product, but it shouldn't be that hard to price it.

[newjez]

6 hours ago, Marisawright said:

They won’t change the law because they have experience of elderly people running out of money on such visas and then putting their sob story on the media to force the govt to let them stay. Not worth the negative publicity 

It wouldn't be a charity. It would be run for profit. Possibly not even by a government but by a private company.

Sure, it doesn't happen now in large numbers.

But why can't it happen? We have a lot of rich pensioners. We have a housing shortage. We have a top heavy population.

Why not incentivise the pensioners to retire in Thailand for example?

Your looking for problems, look for solutions. It is feasible, if the governments of UK and Thailand support it. Potentially it's win win for everyone.

To me it makes more sense than shipping Thai people over here to support the oldies.

Or, and I'm going out on a limb here, but maybe we could design a virus which is asymptomatic in young people but kills old people by the thousands. That could work too.

Edited September 20, 2020 by newjez

[Marisawright]

6 hours ago, newjez said:

We're talking about wealthy pensioners Marisa. I don't think they are taking anyone's jobs. 

No, I didn't say they were.  I'm saying there is anti-immigration feeling because of the "taking people's jobs" perception.   The result is that the government will want to show they're cutting the number of people they're letting into the country.  They can't cut skilled migrants because they're essential for the economy.  Ergo, they'll cut other classes of migrant because that makes the total number look better.   Other countries do it already, to show they're "tough on migration".

Edited September 20, 2020 by Marisawright

[Quinkla]

22 hours ago, newjez said:

The government would take it as a bond as a condition of entry. And yes, an insurance company would do that if they could do the rating on it. Yes it would be a new product, but it shouldn't be that hard to price it.

The health insurance model in Australia is that only a portion of your healthcare costs are reimbursed by the insurer - there's a gap to be paid. And it is understood that most people, when they get really sick or really old transfer into the Medicare system. The insurance premiums on 100% cover for old age would be astronomical. 

[newjez]

1 hour ago, Quinkla said:

The health insurance model in Australia is that only a portion of your healthcare costs are reimbursed by the insurer - there's a gap to be paid. And it is understood that most people, when they get really sick or really old transfer into the Medicare system. The insurance premiums on 100% cover for old age would be astronomical. 

More than £50,000?

There are some schemes out there already. All we need is the UK government to give people an incentive to leave. Possibly taxing pension withdrawal within the UK, but tax free for withdrawal outside the UK.

Possibly even a greater aged pension outside the UK, rather than fixing it as they do ATM.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.thaiembassy.com/travel/health-insurance-thailand-new-requirement-for-retirees.php%23:~:text%3DWhat%20is%20the%20new%20requirement,baht%20for%20inpatient%20medical%20fees.%26text%3DThis%20measure%20will%20solve%20over,left%20unpaid%20by%20foreign%20patients.&ved=2ahUKEwjJ_t_Px_rrAhWROcAKHTSzBlAQFjABegQIDRAG&usg=AOvVaw3z9MoRvNN-wuC7C9zJLfbz&cshid=1600702083208

Edited September 21, 2020 by newjez

[newjez]

2 hours ago, Quinkla said:

The health insurance model in Australia is that only a portion of your healthcare costs are reimbursed by the insurer - there's a gap to be paid. And it is understood that most people, when they get really sick or really old transfer into the Medicare system. The insurance premiums on 100% cover for old age would be astronomical. 

New Zealand do a two year renewable version.

[Marisawright]

8 hours ago, newjez said:

More than £50,000?

Not sure why you'd pick that figure - but we actually know how much the premiums would be, because Overseas Visitors Health Cover already exists in Australia, and it covers everything.  The annual figure isn't too bad.  The problem, like I said, is ensuring that the person is guaranteed to keep the cover in place continuously until death.  You can't threaten to cancel the visa or deport them if they stop the policy, because that's leaving the government open to the old sob story ("deporting granny" always gets attention).  

The only way I can see it working would be for the health fund to take all the premiums upfront for the rest of the applicant's life - like an annuity. That would be doable, but that would be an astronomical figure, I think, by the time you allow for inflation.

Edited September 21, 2020 by Marisawright

[newjez]

1 hour ago, Marisawright said:

Not sure why you'd pick that figure - but we actually know how much the premiums would be, because Overseas Visitors Health Cover already exists in Australia, and it covers everything.  The annual figure isn't too bad.  The problem, like I said, is ensuring that the person is guaranteed to keep the cover in place continuously until death.  You can't threaten to cancel the visa or deport them if they stop the policy, because that's leaving the government open to the old sob story ("deporting granny" always gets attention).  

The only way I can see it working would be for the health fund to take all the premiums upfront for the rest of the applicant's life - like an annuity. That would be doable, but that would be an astronomical figure, I think, by the time you allow for inflation.

There's a lot of people with million dollar pension pots. At least there was before covid.

[Marisawright]

2 hours ago, newjez said:

There's a lot of people with million dollar pension pots. At least there was before covid.

That doesn’t mean to say they’ll want to hand over a huge chunk of it to a health fund.

Bear in mind the health fund will have to allow to cover things like $30,000 hip replacements and $50,000 heart ops. That premium will be stonking! You can be sure the health fund will err on the side of caution 

Edited September 22, 2020 by Marisawright

[newjez]

50 minutes ago, Marisawright said:

That doesn’t mean to say they’ll want to hand over a huge chunk of it to a health fund.

Bear in mind the health fund will have to allow to cover things like $30,000 hip replacements and $50,000 heart ops. That premium will be stonking! You can be sure the health fund will err on the side of caution 

Yes, it would have to be up to our government to give them an incentive to leave. Although I guess our government could also just tax them to pay for the extra care, but then you still need the extra staff, and you get the immigration argument again.

I guess it would be a lot of bother just to satisfy some people's xenophobic needs. 

[FirstWorldProblems]

7 hours ago, newjez said:

There's a lot of people with million dollar pension pots. At least there was before covid.

I'd have to disagree that million dollar pension pots equate to "rich".

If they can find a 5% annuity they are looking at $50k pre-tax income, but to get a rate that grows with inflation, it's more like $30k