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Marisawright

Covid 19 - was Australia's strategy right?

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This article is a long read and not easy to follow for non-economists but it's worth a study.  It answers the question about the value of locking down vs letting the virus run:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/17/was-australia-right-to-shut-down-to-slow-coronavirus-the-economists-verdict


Scot by birth, emigrated 1985 | Aussie husband applied UK spouse visa Jan 2015, granted March 2015, moved to UK May 2015 | Returned to Oz June 2016

"The stranger who comes home does not make himself at home but makes home itself strange." -- Rainer Maria Rilke

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19 hours ago, Marisawright said:

This article is a long read and not easy to follow for non-economists but it's worth a study.  It answers the question about the value of locking down vs letting the virus run:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/17/was-australia-right-to-shut-down-to-slow-coronavirus-the-economists-verdict

Playing devils advocate, the cost accorded is to a full life, what the herd advocates did was pro rata that I guess to reflect the truncated lifes of those most at risk, ie 12.5% and then did a cost benefit analysis based on that and decided to just let it rip, in the UK, Boris belatedly realised the political cost of seeing a couple of hundred thousand OAP's being buried in mass graves was a cr.p political decision even for a crass party like his and started to desperately back pedal, but it was way too late and they fell between 2 stools.

I guess Scomo realised the political danger way ahead of Bojo and that's why you are so much better off. 

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On 18/05/2020 at 03:42, BacktoDemocracy said:

Playing devils advocate, the cost accorded is to a full life, what the herd advocates did was pro rata that I guess to reflect the truncated lifes of those most at risk, ie 12.5% and then did a cost benefit analysis based on that and decided to just let it rip, in the UK, Boris belatedly realised the political cost of seeing a couple of hundred thousand OAP's being buried in mass graves was a cr.p political decision even for a crass party like his and started to desperately back pedal, but it was way too late and they fell between 2 stools.

I guess Scomo realised the political danger way ahead of Bojo and that's why you are so much better off. 

That and we don't have so many people crammed into such small areas and we stopped incoming flights, specially from China, very early in the piece. Mostly we were lucky.

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Plus Australians are very obedient, it is bred into us. No one wants a heavy fine apart from anything else.

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18 hours ago, starlight7 said:

Plus Australians are very obedient, it is bred into us. No one wants a heavy fine apart from anything else.

I would say we have common sense starlight. Most of us haven't been here long enough to have anything "bred in".

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On 18/05/2020 at 05:42, BacktoDemocracy said:

Playing devils advocate, the cost accorded is to a full life, what the herd advocates did was pro rata that I guess to reflect the truncated lifes of those most at risk, ie 12.5% and then did a cost benefit analysis based on that and decided to just let it rip, in the UK, Boris belatedly realised the political cost of seeing a couple of hundred thousand OAP's being buried in mass graves was a cr.p political decision even for a crass party like his and started to desperately back pedal, but it was way too late and they fell between 2 stools.

I guess Scomo realised the political danger way ahead of Bojo and that's why you are so much better off. 

You shouldn’t underestimate the impact of the very recent bushfires disaster which caught Scomo off guard.  He was highly motivated not to make the same error twice.  It is to his credit that he learned from the previous disaster.  I wonder if the political response would have been the same otherwise.

Anyway, it was exactly the right response and Australians responded magnificently.

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2 hours ago, Gbye grey sky said:

You shouldn’t underestimate the impact of the very recent bushfires disaster which caught Scomo off guard.  He was highly motivated not to make the same error twice.  It is to his credit that he learned from the previous disaster.  I wonder if the political response would have been the same otherwise.

Anyway, it was exactly the right response and Australians responded magnificently.

Why. Do you think the fires would have been less if Scomo hadn't gone on holiday?

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49 minutes ago, Paul1Perth said:

Why. Do you think the fires would have been less if Scomo hadn't gone on holiday?

So are you saying Scomo should have gone on holiday when the COVID19 pandemic arrived because he is irrelevant?  I am not sure what point you are making in this comment.


Timeline: 309/100 Sent 7/8/13, Money Taken 9/8/13, CO appointed 3/9/13. Med 3/12/13. Police check 4/12/13. VISA GRANTED 8/4/14, Subclass100. Recce August 2014. Arrived 30 July 2015.

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I feel really sorry for the bushfire victims because I think they have been forgotten with all this covid stuff. Just one blow after another for them. Just when people were starting to go back and visit those areas they were stopped in their tracks because of this horrible disease.

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3 hours ago, Gbye grey sky said:

So are you saying Scomo should have gone on holiday when the COVID19 pandemic arrived because he is irrelevant?  I am not sure what point you are making in this comment.

I think he's trying to say Scomo is an irrelevance,  is he?

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13 hours ago, Gbye grey sky said:

So are you saying Scomo should have gone on holiday when the COVID19 pandemic arrived because he is irrelevant?  I am not sure what point you are making in this comment.

You were the one saying he made an error. 

 

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10 hours ago, BacktoDemocracy said:

I think he's trying to say Scomo is an irrelevance,  is he?

I happen to think he's the best PM we've had since John Howard. I've been saying he was the man for the job years before he got in. 

Don't know what Labor are playing at. Albanese is worse than the bloke before him. Maybe they just don't have anyone better at the moment. Mike McGowan is doing a splendid job in WA mind you.

In the UK I like the early perfomance of Kier Starmer too. At last, a decent challenger.

I think same there though. Boris was the man for the job and the time.

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20 minutes ago, Paul1Perth said:

I happen to think he's the best PM we've had since John Howard. I've been saying he was the man for the job years before he got in. 

Don't know what Labor are playing at. Albanese is worse than the bloke before him. Maybe they just don't have anyone better at the moment. Mike McGowan is doing a splendid job in WA mind you.

In the UK I like the early perfomance of Kier Starmer too. At last, a decent challenger.

I think same there though. Boris was the man for the job and the time.

I like ScoMo too. I think communication is so important and he speaks mcuh better and more straight forward than his predecessors.

A crisis or two like Australia has had with bushfires and covid can be the making of a PM because they really need to lead and are in the limelight every day on the news. It is hard for the opposition to be relevant and be heard in times like this.


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14 minutes ago, Parley said:

I like ScoMo too. I think communication is so important and he speaks mcuh better and more straight forward than his predecessors.

A crisis or two like Australia has had with bushfires and covid can be the making of a PM because they really need to lead and are in the limelight every day on the news. It is hard for the opposition to be relevant and be heard in times like this.

It's been good that politicians from all sides seem to have been working together with just the best interests of the country and its people, for a change.

Sadly now the media are stirring it up between states, pressuring WA and Queensland to open borders. 

I expect they'll revert to type pretty soon.

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42 minutes ago, Paul1Perth said:

It's been good that politicians from all sides seem to have been working together with just the best interests of the country and its people, for a change.

Sadly now the media are stirring it up between states, pressuring WA and Queensland to open borders. 

I expect they'll revert to type pretty soon.

The media are not manufacturing this.  The division on this issue is real.  The NSW Government and the Federal Government want borders reopened now and the State Governments in Queensland, WA, SA, NT and Tasmania disagree.


Timeline: 309/100 Sent 7/8/13, Money Taken 9/8/13, CO appointed 3/9/13. Med 3/12/13. Police check 4/12/13. VISA GRANTED 8/4/14, Subclass100. Recce August 2014. Arrived 30 July 2015.

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1 hour ago, Paul1Perth said:

I happen to think he's the best PM we've had since John Howard. I've been saying he was the man for the job years before he got in. 

Don't know what Labor are playing at. Albanese is worse than the bloke before him. Maybe they just don't have anyone better at the moment. Mike McGowan is doing a splendid job in WA mind you.

In the UK I like the early perfomance of Kier Starmer too. At last, a decent challenger.

I think same there though. Boris was the man for the job and the time.

Scomo surprised me by reading the nation’s mood on this correctly and adopting what in effect were socialist solutions to manage the economic fallout.

I profoundly disagree with him add distrust most of his party on climate change.  Though he has shown himself willing to defer to science on one issue the lure of political donations will keep him and his associates focussed on slowing the change to renewables.

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Timeline: 309/100 Sent 7/8/13, Money Taken 9/8/13, CO appointed 3/9/13. Med 3/12/13. Police check 4/12/13. VISA GRANTED 8/4/14, Subclass100. Recce August 2014. Arrived 30 July 2015.

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16 hours ago, Paul1Perth said:

Why. Do you think the fires would have been less if Scomo hadn't gone on holiday?

That's not the point he was making.  It's the fact that Scomo got a lot of bad press because he was on holiday then, and he's very sensitive to bad press.  So he was anxious to take fast action on corona and that paid off for all of us. 

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Scot by birth, emigrated 1985 | Aussie husband applied UK spouse visa Jan 2015, granted March 2015, moved to UK May 2015 | Returned to Oz June 2016

"The stranger who comes home does not make himself at home but makes home itself strange." -- Rainer Maria Rilke

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1 hour ago, Paul1Perth said:

It's been good that politicians from all sides seem to have been working together with just the best interests of the country and its people, for a change.

Sadly now the media are stirring it up between states, pressuring WA and Queensland to open borders. 

I expect they'll revert to type pretty soon.

It's not the media, it's a fact.  If you've listened to some of the speeches by federal representatives vs state reps, you can see it's a real bone of contention between them.

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Scot by birth, emigrated 1985 | Aussie husband applied UK spouse visa Jan 2015, granted March 2015, moved to UK May 2015 | Returned to Oz June 2016

"The stranger who comes home does not make himself at home but makes home itself strange." -- Rainer Maria Rilke

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4 hours ago, Marisawright said:

It's not the media, it's a fact.  If you've listened to some of the speeches by federal representatives vs state reps, you can see it's a real bone of contention between them.

It's the emotive language that the media use Marisa that stirs it up more than it needs to be. War of words, border wars etc. It's a slight disagreement and they'll sort it out. Give it a couple of weeks, month tops and it will almost be back to normal.

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Scomo has always said the States have the last word on this, and rightly so because they are very different . I believe he is on very good terms with Dan Andrews privately and a lot of the so called arguments are just a press beat up.

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On 20/05/2020 at 22:45, BacktoDemocracy said:

I think he's trying to say Scomo is an irrelevance,  is he?

He is.  Thankfully the state/territory leaders stepped up to fill the void.  

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4 hours ago, Bulya said:

He is.  Thankfully the state/territory leaders stepped up to fill the void.  

Hardly considering he created JobSeeker and JobKeeper.


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On 21/05/2020 at 09:11, Marisawright said:

It's not the media, it's a fact.  If you've listened to some of the speeches by federal representatives vs state reps, you can see it's a real bone of contention between them.

Nice to see Berijaklean on the news last night saying they are all grown ups and will be able to sort it out. I think the media were disappointed.

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On 20/05/2020 at 14:37, Gbye grey sky said:

You shouldn’t underestimate the impact of the very recent bushfires disaster which caught Scomo off guard.  He was highly motivated not to make the same error twice.  It is to his credit that he learned from the previous disaster.  I wonder if the political response would have been the same otherwise.

Anyway, it was exactly the right response and Australians responded magnificently.

This is spot on.  Sometimes it takes an event in time to create a good leader I'm not a liberal voter but Scomo really has handled this well, equally has Mark McGowan here in WA. 

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21 hours ago, Parley said:

Hardly considering he created JobSeeker and JobKeeper.

He did neither.  JobSeeker is Newstart renamed.    JobKeeper was put together by Greg Combet and Sally McManus, sold to Porter and Treasury and Morrison was dragged along, reluctantly I might add.  .  

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