Fall in migration due to Covid-19

[Toots]

Overseas migration is expected to crash by 85% in the next financial year.  Prime Minister Scott Morrison revealed yesterday net overseas migration would be down 30% this financial year.  He said it would then fall off by 85% in 2020 - 21.  Australia's border is expected to remain closed at least until next year with a possible exception being New Zealand.

[Parley]

19 hours ago, Toots said:

Overseas migration is expected to crash by 85% in the next financial year.  Prime Minister Scott Morrison revealed yesterday net overseas migration would be down 30% this financial year.  He said it would then fall off by 85% in 2020 - 21.  Australia's border is expected to remain closed at least until next year with a possible exception being New Zealand.

I think it is necessary when there is unemployment at 10% or higher in the existing workforce.

The first priority has to be getting the current unemployed here already working again.

[Bulya]

Goldman Sachs announce Australian unemployment rate as 19% and rising...

[Lavers]

On 02/05/2020 at 04:38, Toots said:

Overseas migration is expected to crash by 85% in the next financial year.  Prime Minister Scott Morrison revealed yesterday net overseas migration would be down 30% this financial year.  He said it would then fall off by 85% in 2020 - 21.  Australia's border is expected to remain closed at least until next year with a possible exception being New Zealand.

Does that mean that the 14day quarantine upon arrival will stay in place?

[Lavers]

8 hours ago, Parley said:

I think it is necessary when there is unemployment at 10% or higher in the existing workforce.

The first priority has to be getting the current unemployed here already working again.

Depends if you can fill the jobs which are needed. I know in the UK many english wont go working on farms and would rather claim benefits.

[Lavers]

3 hours ago, Bulya said:

Goldman Sachs announce Australian unemployment rate as 19% and rising...

Could hit 19% by the middle of the year.

Would that include furlough?

[Marisawright]

4 hours ago, Lavers said:

Does that mean that the 14day quarantine upon arrival will stay in place?

It has to.   99% of the Australian population has no immunity to coronavirus so quarantine has to stay in place until there's an effective treatment or a vaccine. 

If we don't do that, then we'll just end up with a UK or Italy or Spain scenario as soon as we start letting planes in.   

Furlough is a US expression I think.   Unemployment is people registered as unemployed.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Marisawright

[Lavers]

22 minutes ago, Marisawright said:

It has to.   99% of the Australian population has no immunity to coronavirus so quarantine has to stay in place until there's an effective treatment or a vaccine. 

If we don't do that, then we'll just end up with a UK or Italy or Spain scenario as soon as we start letting planes in.   

Furlough is a US expression I think.   Unemployment is people registered as unemployed.

Suppose you are correct, looks like I'll have to do a quarantine then.

Which sectors are worst hit in Aus, hospitality?

[Bulya]

10 hours ago, Lavers said:

Could hit 19% by the middle of the year.

Would that include furlough?

 Don’t think so 

[Toots]

14 hours ago, Lavers said:

Does that mean that the 14day quarantine upon arrival will stay in place?

It probably will  especially if Covid-19 is still rampant in your country.  If not perhaps by that time all visitors will be tested.  Who knows how it's all going to pan out.

[Marisawright]

10 hours ago, Lavers said:

Suppose you are correct, looks like I'll have to do a quarantine then.

Which sectors are worst hit in Aus, hospitality?

Hard to say.   Hospitality has been badly hit, but Australia is much more of a café/restaurant culture than a pub culture - and most cafés and restaurants are offering takeaway food, so they are still employing some staff, so they have some chance of surviving and being able to ramp up again when lockdown ends.  

The bigger worry is  service industries like beauty salons, yoga studios, massage therapists, dance studios, gyms etc.   They're totally shut down but still paying rent.  The worry is that theyll be too broke to get started again after lockdown.   The same goes for the arts - theatres, entertainers etc.  

[ramot]

39 minutes ago, Marisawright said:

Hard to say.   Hospitality has been badly hit, but Australia is much more of a café/restaurant culture than a pub culture - and most cafés and restaurants are offering takeaway food, so they are still employing some staff, so they have some chance of surviving and being able to ramp up again when lockdown ends.  

The bigger worry is  service industries like beauty salons, yoga studios, massage therapists, dance studios, gyms etc.   They're totally shut down but still paying rent.  The worry is that theyll be too broke to get started again after lockdown.   The same goes for the arts - theatres, entertainers etc.  

Quite a few pubs are also surviving by selling takeaway food. Not many pubs were empty before the Coronavirus hit. We are having more takeout than previously to support local, plus I don’t have to cook!!

[Lavers]

An opinion from you if you will.

Just weighing up if we make the move now instead of Sept as planned or are we stupid for doing it.

* Flights are double but will they be different in Sept.

* 14 day quarantine paid for but will that be different in Sept and maybe change where we have to pay

* Airbnb are cheaper so that offsets some of the flight cost.

* Things could change for the worse and we are stuck in the UK for 12 months or longer.

Ive checked the job sites and there are still jobs going on for my trade (metal fabricator). Also would we be able to look around at rentals when we are ready in a few months time.

What are your thoughts?

[AliQ]

14 minutes ago, Lavers said:

An opinion from you if you will.

Just weighing up if we make the move now instead of Sept as planned or are we stupid for doing it.

* Flights are double but will they be different in Sept.

* 14 day quarantine paid for but will that be different in Sept and maybe change where we have to pay

* Airbnb are cheaper so that offsets some of the flight cost.

* Things could change for the worse and we are stuck in the UK for 12 months or longer.

Ive checked the job sites and there are still jobs going on for my trade (metal fabricator). Also would we be able to look around at rentals when we are ready in a few months time.

What are your thoughts?

If I was in your position, I would go now (if you can sell your car)

Just spoke to my friend in Aus, yes you can view rentals.

As for cost of flights, who knows any more, I'd grab them and go.

[starlight7]

Very tricky one.  I have a feeling that many jobs will go to locals first because of the situation. The prices of houses are set to drop a lot , too- which would kick in in 6-12 months. Rentals have already become cheaper . My gut feeling is to say don't come yet.

[Lavers]

42 minutes ago, starlight7 said:

Very tricky one.  I have a feeling that many jobs will go to locals first because of the situation. The prices of houses are set to drop a lot , too- which would kick in in 6-12 months. Rentals have already become cheaper . My gut feeling is to say don't come yet.

It is a roll of the dice and I did notice that rental prices have dropped (which works in my favour) also I don't wont to buy for at least 12 months so that could work out for me also.

Decisions decisions 

[elderberry]

I'm assuming you are a PR? Else you can't come atm

[Lavers]

Yes on a 190 just haven't validated it.

Going to ring home affairs today and make sure that we can travel.

[elderberry]

I've noticed that rentals have dropped recently and also the flexibility for shorter term rentals (Melbourne). In that respect' I'd say this is a good time to come here to set up provided you have some funds in place.

In my case, getting that first job was tough even in the better times (lack of Australian work experience apparently) and I think that is quite common, so I would say you should be looking to cover your costs for a few months in any case.

Australia overall is doing great in stemming the Covid risk - I don't know where you are planning to go, but WA,SA, Qld are all doing much better than VIC/NSW and are likely to be back to normal sooner rather than later. 

I'd say come here and be in place ready for the economy to bounce back.

[Lavers]

2 hours ago, elderberry said:

I've noticed that rentals have dropped recently and also the flexibility for shorter term rentals (Melbourne). In that respect' I'd say this is a good time to come here to set up provided you have some funds in place.

In my case, getting that first job was tough even in the better times (lack of Australian work experience apparently) and I think that is quite common, so I would say you should be looking to cover your costs for a few months in any case.

Australia overall is doing great in stemming the Covid risk - I don't know where you are planning to go, but WA,SA, Qld are all doing much better than VIC/NSW and are likely to be back to normal sooner rather than later. 

I'd say come here and be in place ready for the economy to bounce back.

Thanks Elderberry

I rang department of home of affairs and I am free to travel even though I haven't validated my visa yet which is good. Vague on other things I asked and the lady I spoke to just kept saying have you read the updates on there site.

South Aus we are off to and the rentals seem to have dropped also, I sold my house the week before lock down so everything seems to have fallen into place in a weird sort of way.

Going to try and sort flights for start of next month i think.

What is it you do for a job?

[AliQ]

2 hours ago, Lavers said:

Going to try and sort flights for start of next month i think.

Hi Lavers, Singapore Airlines are now showing some flights to Adelaide from June 30th.

Good luck and I hope you get there soon.

[Lavers]

13 minutes ago, AliQ said:

Hi Lavers, Singapore Airlines are now showing some flights to Adelaide from June 30th.

Good luck and I hope you get there soon.

Cheers Ali ill have a look.

Most likely around that time as I've too much to sort out, i am hoping that car sales open at the end of this week then I can get my car sold.

[AliQ]

54 minutes ago, Lavers said:

Cheers Ali ill have a look.

Most likely around that time as I've too much to sort out, i am hoping that car sales open at the end of this week then I can get my car sold.

Yes we too need to sell our car, that's our sticking point. I think the removalist's will return soon as we can social distance easily when they come to pack, that's our other sticking point.

Good luck and I hope you and your family enjoy life in Australia, we certainly did and looking forward to getting back

[Lavers]

5 minutes ago, AliQ said:

Yes we too need to sell our car, that's our sticking point. I think the removalist's will return soon as we can social distance easily when they come to pack, that's our other sticking point.

Good luck and I hope you and your family enjoy life in Australia, we certainly did and looking forward to getting back

Cheers Ali and all the best to you.

[North to South]

2 hours ago, Lavers said:

Cheers Ali and all the best to you.

Hi,  I know some airlines are showing availability, but that's not a guarantee they will operate those flights and not sure if I'd still want to travel through any far-east hubs.  I'm travelling (hopefully) in July/August to Adelaide and will more than likely use Qatar.  I'd also look at the price of return flights as I noticed with Qatar when looking at one way business class flights they were over £1200 more expensive than a return which to me made no sense.

If Qantas are operating by then I will go for the London - Perth direct flight to avoid any stopovers.  I know it'll mean quarantine in Perth, but I'm happy to do that if it reduces one of the risks on flying.