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Corona Virus

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7 minutes ago, Dusty Plains said:

I could well believe it - but the problem is that coronavirus is probably here to stay, like the flu, so does that mean we have to wear face masks for the rest of our lives?


Scot by birth, emigrated 1985 | Aussie husband applied UK spouse visa Jan 2015, granted March 2015, moved to UK May 2015 | Returned to Oz June 2016

"The stranger who comes home does not make himself at home but makes home itself strange." -- Rainer Maria Rilke

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Just been trying to find out if there have been any excess deaths (as compared to a Normal year) in Victoria due to Corona Virus. Unfortunately the stats are not very available (they seem to want researchers to pay for them) and don't provide comparatives but I have discovered from the Birth Deaths and Marriages Victoria website :

Total deaths in the 12 months ended 31st December 2019: 41,387 (includes 0 COVID-19)

Total deaths in the 12 months ended 31st August 2020: 41,373  (includes 570 COVID-19)

Which would suggest that up to the end of August there were no excess deaths (although of course with a further 175 COVID-19 deaths so far in September that may have changed)

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Chartered Accountant (England & Wales); Registered Tax Agent & Fellow of The Tax Institute (Australia)

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6 hours ago, Ken said:

Just been trying to find out if there have been any excess deaths (as compared to a Normal year) in Victoria due to Corona Virus. Unfortunately the stats are not very available (they seem to want researchers to pay for them) and don't provide comparatives but I have discovered from the Birth Deaths and Marriages Victoria website :

Total deaths in the 12 months ended 31st December 2019: 41,387 (includes 0 COVID-19)

Total deaths in the 12 months ended 31st August 2020: 41,373  (includes 570 COVID-19)

Which would suggest that up to the end of August there were no excess deaths (although of course with a further 175 COVID-19 deaths so far in September that may have changed)

For a true comparisn don't you need to compare the same year periods and also there is also a lag in registrations as we have seen in the UK,

And to even out highs and lows don't you need to average it over several years

Also I am immediately suspicious when stats are not being published

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13 hours ago, BacktoDemocracy said:

For a true comparisn don't you need to compare the same year periods and also there is also a lag in registrations as we have seen in the UK,

And to even out highs and lows don't you need to average it over several years

Also I am immediately suspicious when stats are not being published

A 12 month period is a 12 month period it doesn't matter that they didn't end in the same month you'll still have all the seasonal factors. Yes, you do need to average over several years - but then you also need to adjust for population and age of the population - a lot less people died in Victoria 50 years ago, not because they were healthier but because there were a lot fewer of them.

Like you I'm suspicious they don't just have all the data available on the Births Deaths and Marriages Victoria website but I think it is that they want to monetise the information (regardless of the fact that we taxpayers have already paid for it). 

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Sweden appear to be over the worst of this virus.....infections down and staying down.....deaths low.....economy recovering well.....now doing better than their close neighbours that locked down and continue to lock down.....Us.....well what can you say.....the one dimensional approach to this pandemic by most of our governments still causing misery to millions.....jobs....health.....quality of life.....all trashed.....we accept 20k people dying of influenza every year.....no bother.....not a 2nd thought.....yet we are terrified of this virus.....look at what has taken place in Victoria.....complete madness.....they have gone from a relatively healthy position to a situation where the whole country has now been affected by the madness of curfews and business closures to protect what.....people dying from a virus that is just taking the place of another illnesses that would take their life anyway.....as sad as it is....its true though and all along we are being dictated too.....ordered to curtail our own lives....hopes.....relationships.....we have some treatments now available.....why we can't let the younger generations get on with their lives whilst doing our best to protect the most vulnerable to me is just senseless......for the sake of a few middle aged panic stricken people terrified to set foot outside their front doors.....sucked into this belief that its certain death if they even get a whiff of this virus.....turn a blind eye to the fact that about 3/4 of people that get it have no symptoms at all......I'm not sure the people of this country will stand for further mass restrictions......people I speak too day in day out have had enough.....but lets not let the lives of the less fortunate.....less financially secure and younger generations get in the way of our own fears and insecurities......At least Brexit is back on the agenda.....something else to talk about other than infection rates.....hospital admissions and socially distanced gatherings!

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Of course the death rate from other diseases like influenza will be lower - we are isolating and wearing masks so we are being protected against that as well as Covid. I guess that is another small positive. 

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I think the Victorian isolation is the most severe in the world, worse than Wuhan because it is going on longer. When I look at Europe and the US I think maybe, just maybe, we are doing the right thing but whether it is sustainable in the long run is a moot point.

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43 minutes ago, starlight7 said:

I think the Victorian isolation is the most severe in the world, worse than Wuhan because it is going on longer. When I look at Europe and the US I think maybe, just maybe, we are doing the right thing but whether it is sustainable in the long run is a moot point.

What about Israel? Not allowed to go more than 500m from home. Italy and Spain both had very strict lockdowns at different times

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Scot by birth, emigrated 1985 | Aussie husband applied UK spouse visa Jan 2015, granted March 2015, moved to UK May 2015 | Returned to Oz June 2016

"The stranger who comes home does not make himself at home but makes home itself strange." -- Rainer Maria Rilke

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I think after another 3-4 weeks the whole thing will start to turn pear shaped. Just human nature, you can't keep people locked away for ever and let's hope our Premier realises that and gives us a bit of leeway. I think masks will be in for the duration but you do get used to them.

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2 hours ago, starlight7 said:

I think the Victorian isolation is the most severe in the world, worse than Wuhan because it is going on longer. When I look at Europe and the US I think maybe, just maybe, we are doing the right thing but whether it is sustainable in the long run is a moot point.

It is not that bad really. I tyink in Wuhan peoples apartment buildings were welded shut and they could not escape.

Today I have been for 2 walks and been to the shops. So hardly a lockdown.

Yes our freedoms are curtailed but it is not like we are in prison. We can still go out exercising and go to the shops. 

To be honest my life hasn''t changed much at all.

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4 hours ago, kungfustu said:

Sweden appear to be over the worst of this virus.....infections down and staying down.....deaths low.....economy recovering well.....now doing better than their close neighbours that locked down and continue to lock down.....Us.....well what can you say.....the one dimensional approach to this pandemic by most of our governments still causing misery to millions.....jobs....health.....quality of life.....all trashed.....we accept 20k people dying of influenza every year.....no bother.....not a 2nd thought.....yet we are terrified of this virus.....look at what has taken place in Victoria.....complete madness.....they have gone from a relatively healthy position to a situation where the whole country has now been affected by the madness of curfews and business closures to protect what.....people dying from a virus that is just taking the place of another illnesses that would take their life anyway.....as sad as it is....its true though and all along we are being dictated too.....ordered to curtail our own lives....hopes.....relationships.....we have some treatments now available.....why we can't let the younger generations get on with their lives whilst doing our best to protect the most vulnerable to me is just senseless......for the sake of a few middle aged panic stricken people terrified to set foot outside their front doors.....sucked into this belief that its certain death if they even get a whiff of this virus.....turn a blind eye to the fact that about 3/4 of people that get it have no symptoms at all......I'm not sure the people of this country will stand for further mass restrictions......people I speak too day in day out have had enough.....but lets not let the lives of the less fortunate.....less financially secure and younger generations get in the way of our own fears and insecurities......At least Brexit is back on the agenda.....something else to talk about other than infection rates.....hospital admissions and socially distanced gatherings!

Why are you worried about the lives lost and damaged by the economic effects of covid lockdown, but you aren't bothered about the lives lost and damaged by the economic effects of a hard brexit?

Personally, I blame the Tories.

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Just been up north to the covid capital of Britain. People were taking precautions. Tesco's was done very well I thought. Everyone in masks. Went to a pub for tea and they had turned their carpark into Al fresco dining. Don't know what they will do in winter. But I'm not sure what explains the higher numbers.

But I'm sure transporting millions of uni students around the country is not going to help the situation. I would expect numbers to really pick up all over the country now.

Edited by newjez

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8 hours ago, kungfustu said:

Sweden appear to be over the worst of this virus.....infections down and staying down.....deaths low.....economy recovering well.....now doing better than their close neighbours that locked down and continue to lock down.....Us.....well what can you say.....the one dimensional approach to this pandemic by most of our governments still causing misery to millions.....jobs....health.....quality of life.....all trashed.....we accept 20k people dying of influenza every year.....no bother.....not a 2nd thought.....yet we are terrified of this virus.....look at what has taken place in Victoria.....complete madness.....they have gone from a relatively healthy position to a situation where the whole country has now been affected by the madness of curfews and business closures to protect what.....people dying from a virus that is just taking the place of another illnesses that would take their life anyway.....as sad as it is....its true though and all along we are being dictated too.....ordered to curtail our own lives....hopes.....relationships.....we have some treatments now available.....why we can't let the younger generations get on with their lives whilst doing our best to protect the most vulnerable to me is just senseless......for the sake of a few middle aged panic stricken people terrified to set foot outside their front doors.....sucked into this belief that its certain death if they even get a whiff of this virus.....turn a blind eye to the fact that about 3/4 of people that get it have no symptoms at all......I'm not sure the people of this country will stand for further mass restrictions......people I speak too day in day out have had enough.....but lets not let the lives of the less fortunate.....less financially secure and younger generations get in the way of our own fears and insecurities......At least Brexit is back on the agenda.....something else to talk about other than infection rates.....hospital admissions and socially distanced gatherings!

I'll tell you what, let's not treat anyone who catches Covid, we'll do like you and Abbott suggest, if you catch it, we give them some morphine and leave them isolated in a warehouse and just use some strong stomached staff in bio hazard suits to do a clear out down to the crem each day, meanwhile all those who can stand up each day go to work and go down the pub of an evening and we only treat people with non covid deseases, no covid infected people allowed in hospitals. 

Yep, that sounds like a grand idea for dealing with the situation.

Now let us consider that as a proposition, the real hard nuts are told that their mums, dads, grannies and granddads aren't getting any treatment, so p..s off,  how long before there are threats and medical staff too scared to go to work.

How long do you think you will have a functioning society,  there is always someone who is more selfish and more violent than someone else and will make themselves and their gang ahead of everyone else.

If there is increased transmission of this disease will it start to mutate in the way flu does purely and simply because it passes thro so many hosts?

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10 hours ago, kungfustu said:

Sweden appear to be over the worst of this virus.....infections down and staying down.....deaths low.....economy recovering well.....now doing better than their close neighbours that locked down and continue to lock down.....Us.....well what can you say.....the one dimensional approach to this pandemic by most of our governments still causing misery to millions.....jobs....health.....quality of life.....all trashed.....we accept 20k people dying of influenza every year.....no bother.....not a 2nd thought.....yet we are terrified of this virus.....look at what has taken place in Victoria.....complete madness.....they have gone from a relatively healthy position to a situation where the whole country has now been affected by the madness of curfews and business closures to protect what.....people dying from a virus that is just taking the place of another illnesses that would take their life anyway.....as sad as it is....its true though and all along we are being dictated too.....ordered to curtail our own lives....hopes.....relationships.....we have some treatments now available.....why we can't let the younger generations get on with their lives whilst doing our best to protect the most vulnerable to me is just senseless......for the sake of a few middle aged panic stricken people terrified to set foot outside their front doors.....sucked into this belief that its certain death if they even get a whiff of this virus.....turn a blind eye to the fact that about 3/4 of people that get it have no symptoms at all......I'm not sure the people of this country will stand for further mass restrictions......people I speak too day in day out have had enough.....but lets not let the lives of the less fortunate.....less financially secure and younger generations get in the way of our own fears and insecurities......At least Brexit is back on the agenda.....something else to talk about other than infection rates.....hospital admissions and socially distanced gatherings!

Isn't what you are proposing is freedom of action for anyone who wants to ignore the impact of their actions on others, isn't that the same argument that is always put forward by the freedom of speech advocates.

So believers in freedoms can make the case regardless of the cost of those freedoms for others! 

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10 hours ago, kungfustu said:

Sweden appear to be over the worst of this virus.....infections down and staying down.....deaths low.....economy recovering well.....now doing better than their close neighbours that locked down and continue to lock down.....Us.....well what can you say.....the one dimensional approach to this pandemic by most of our governments still causing misery to millions.....jobs....health.....quality of life.....all trashed.....we accept 20k people dying of influenza every year.....no bother.....not a 2nd thought.....yet we are terrified of this virus.....look at what has taken place in Victoria.....complete madness.....they have gone from a relatively healthy position to a situation where the whole country has now been affected by the madness of curfews and business closures to protect what.....people dying from a virus that is just taking the place of another illnesses that would take their life anyway.....as sad as it is....its true though and all along we are being dictated too.....ordered to curtail our own lives....hopes.....relationships.....we have some treatments now available.....why we can't let the younger generations get on with their lives whilst doing our best to protect the most vulnerable to me is just senseless......for the sake of a few middle aged panic stricken people terrified to set foot outside their front doors.....sucked into this belief that its certain death if they even get a whiff of this virus.....turn a blind eye to the fact that about 3/4 of people that get it have no symptoms at all......I'm not sure the people of this country will stand for further mass restrictions......people I speak too day in day out have had enough.....but lets not let the lives of the less fortunate.....less financially secure and younger generations get in the way of our own fears and insecurities......At least Brexit is back on the agenda.....something else to talk about other than infection rates.....hospital admissions and socially distanced gatherings!

Uk deaths/million580, Sweden deaths/million614

Sweden pop and size of cities approx 17% of UK size

We now have freedom protestors advocating freedom for them to do as they want, where do we go with that, how do we organise a society based on that.?

Edited by BacktoDemocracy

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15 hours ago, starlight7 said:

Our lockdown is very long-a lot  longer than Italy and Spain who didn't stick to it anyway. Israel similar but shorter. They can only travel 1km not 5 but then is is a smaller place.

 

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-world-s-longest-covid-19-lockdowns-how-victoria-compares-20200907-p55t7q.html

That article says, " But while ours has been tough, it has nothing on some other lockdowns, either for length or severity."

Ours has been stricter than Britain, Spain or France - but consider, they are all having serious second waves now, so did they really make better decisions?   I have a friend in Italy who says she's astonished at how compliant Italians are - most of them still wearing masks and social distancing very conscientiously.  So although not in lockdown, they are still following the rules.

Israel's didn't work either, and now they've started a new, stricter lockdown just in time for the high holidays - including a 500m limit on how far you can walk:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-lockdown-rules-effective-from-september-18-at-2-p-m/#gs.glx97d

Edited by Marisawright
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Scot by birth, emigrated 1985 | Aussie husband applied UK spouse visa Jan 2015, granted March 2015, moved to UK May 2015 | Returned to Oz June 2016

"The stranger who comes home does not make himself at home but makes home itself strange." -- Rainer Maria Rilke

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15 hours ago, starlight7 said:

I think after another 3-4 weeks the whole thing will start to turn pear shaped. Just human nature, you can't keep people locked away for ever and let's hope our Premier realises that and gives us a bit of leeway. I think masks will be in for the duration but you do get used to them.

Has anyone suggested it will go another 3-4 weeks?  The magic date is 28 September and they've always said that if numbers can get down to where they need to be, they will start making concessions sooner.  

Of course, if people start being stupid and numbers surge, what else do you suggest they do?

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Scot by birth, emigrated 1985 | Aussie husband applied UK spouse visa Jan 2015, granted March 2015, moved to UK May 2015 | Returned to Oz June 2016

"The stranger who comes home does not make himself at home but makes home itself strange." -- Rainer Maria Rilke

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It really annoys me all the protestors blaming Dan Andrews and saying that COVID rates are low enough now for him to remove the restrictions. Don't they realise that the rest of Australia isn't going to open their borders with Victoria while there are still any case of COVID in Victoria? Dan Andrews has no choice but to get the numbers down to zero.

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32 minutes ago, Ken said:

It really annoys me all the protestors blaming Dan Andrews and saying that COVID rates are low enough now for him to remove the restrictions. Don't they realise that the rest of Australia isn't going to open their borders with Victoria while there are still any case of COVID in Victoria? Dan Andrews has no choice but to get the numbers down to zero.

It's a bit like saying, we don't have any bushfires at the moment, so everyone can go out into the bush and have BBQs. Whether people can have BBQs or not is determined by the weather. Not the current number of fires.

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1 hour ago, Marisawright said:

That article says, " But while ours has been tough, it has nothing on some other lockdowns, either for length or severity."

Ours has been stricter than Britain, Spain or France - but consider, they are all having serious second waves now, so did they really make better decisions?   I have a friend in Italy who says she's astonished at how compliant Italians are - most of them still wearing masks and social distancing very conscientiously.  So although not in lockdown, they are still following the rules.

Israel's didn't work either, and now they've started a new, stricter lockdown just in time for the high holidays - including a 500m limit on how far you can walk:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-lockdown-rules-effective-from-september-18-at-2-p-m/#gs.glx97d

The UK Spain and France are creeping up again because we try to open up the holidays market. It was bound to happen. Australia is in a very different position to Europe and the Americans. You have the chance to eradicate it. We will never do that. All we can hope for is to contain it so we don't overwhelm our health services. They open or close the economy here accordingly.

 

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20 hours ago, kungfustu said:

Sweden appear to be over the worst of this virus.....infections down and staying down.....deaths low.....economy recovering well.....now doing better than their close neighbours that locked down and continue to lock down.....Us.....well what can you say.....the one dimensional approach to this pandemic by most of our governments still causing misery to millions.....jobs....health.....quality of life.....all trashed.....we accept 20k people dying of influenza every year.....no bother.....not a 2nd thought.....yet we are terrified of this virus.....look at what has taken place in Victoria.....complete madness.....they have gone from a relatively healthy position to a situation where the whole country has now been affected by the madness of curfews and business closures to protect what.....people dying from a virus that is just taking the place of another illnesses that would take their life anyway.....as sad as it is....its true though and all along we are being dictated too.....ordered to curtail our own lives....hopes.....relationships.....we have some treatments now available.....why we can't let the younger generations get on with their lives whilst doing our best to protect the most vulnerable to me is just senseless......for the sake of a few middle aged panic stricken people terrified to set foot outside their front doors.....sucked into this belief that its certain death if they even get a whiff of this virus.....turn a blind eye to the fact that about 3/4 of people that get it have no symptoms at all......I'm not sure the people of this country will stand for further mass restrictions......people I speak too day in day out have had enough.....but lets not let the lives of the less fortunate.....less financially secure and younger generations get in the way of our own fears and insecurities......At least Brexit is back on the agenda.....something else to talk about other than infection rates.....hospital admissions and socially distanced gatherings!

That is pretty much what we are doing.

What specifically would you have us do differently? Do you think we should stop WFH?

To a large extent, all the virus has done is increase the speed at which we move towards a digital world. A lot of the economic upheaval we are having now was going to happen over the next ten years anyway.

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1 hour ago, Ken said:

It really annoys me all the protestors blaming Dan Andrews and saying that COVID rates are low enough now for him to remove the restrictions. Don't they realise that the rest of Australia isn't going to open their borders with Victoria while there are still any case of COVID in Victoria? Dan Andrews has no choice but to get the numbers down to zero.

It will never go to zero cases.

No one expects that.


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1 hour ago, Parley said:

It will never go to zero cases.

No one expects that.

I'm pretty sure Australia is trying for zero cases. It seems to be an extravagant cost you are committing upon yourself if you aren't trying to get zero cases. Law of diminishing returns and all that.

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11 hours ago, BacktoDemocracy said:

Uk deaths/million580, Sweden deaths/million614

Sweden pop and size of cities approx 17% of UK size

We now have freedom protestors advocating freedom for them to do as they want, where do we go with that, how do we organise a society based on that.?

Can't wait for those critical of BLM protests spreading covid to start being critical of anti lockdown protests. Any minute now.

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