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3 minutes ago, kungfustu said:

yeh thats the spirit.....talk it up now....no harm done.....ūüėāūü§£ūüėā

At what cost Paul.....what do you think the cost of 4 months of lock down will be on the people.....on their mental health.....on their finances.....their job prospects.....honestly mate you really need to remove your head from all that WA sand......

How lovely............not

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We have been in tier 3 for 2 weeks now and the infection rate is not reducing significantly. These halfway measures don't work. We need a Wales-style lockdown or nothing.

Yesterday's deaths were 210 or so of which only 6 people didn't have underlying health conditions.

There are a lot of nutjobs here who think coronavirus isn't a thing, of course it is. But, for most people the chances of succumbing to it are very small. So, why aren't the Govt. encouraging vulnerable groups to isolate whilst the vast majority of people, and businesses, continue to go about their lives?

222 hospitality businesses have gone to the wall in Liverpool, since March. The cost of these lockdown measures is going to change our landscape for ever.

We need an exit strategy, once it gets to December everyone is going to ignore these measures anyway, there's no way anyone is going to observe lockdown over Xmas. Which reinforces why we should have had a hard lockdown now. Unfortunately the people in charge are clueless.

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1 hour ago, kungfustu said:

What was that phrase....."please don't tell me" Melbourne is still in lock down.....

I've just been out for dinner (sat down) and then a pint in the way home.

Melbourne is not locked down.

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1 hour ago, Paul1Perth said:

This weekend people will be out in Melbourne, eating, drinking, celebrating, shopping, life feeling almost back to normal. 

Well worth the lockdown, things will improve quickly once people can get out.

One of the reasons that Melbourne had to stay in lockdown for so long is that they wasted the first month of lockdown in July because it didn't reduce the case numbers at all.  In fact the numbers kept rising for the whole month.  Had they gone hard and fast like NZ right from the beginning, they could've wrapped it up in just six weeks (as it stands, the bulk of the level 4 lockdown time was spent undoing the damage done during the first month of level 3 lockdown).

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2 hours ago, kungfustu said:

I noticed last night that the BBC have changed tack with their over reporting of the figures......they have now introduced another phrase to their standard line......"deaths for any reason" within 28 days of a positive test.....at least it is a little more accurate.....deaths for any reason.....so what they are now saying is these people could have died from anything......not just Corona virus even tho they are registered as a corona virus death......well there's a thought.....are they now saying that there's other nasty things out there that can actually kill us other than Corona virus.....ūü§Ē

There were 64,000 more deaths in the UK in the period 28th February to 5th June 2020 than there were in the comparative period of 2019 (187,000 deaths in 2020 vs 123,000 in 2019). Now you will get some fluctuation from year to year and even an increasing trend due to a larger and older population, but that large a number of extra deaths clearly shows that the UK drastically understated the number of COVID-19 deaths in that period. Stop trying to pretend these people would all have died anyway. These figures do not include anyone who died after 5th June.

Source: https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/comparing-covid-19-impact-in-the-uk-to-european-countries?gclid=Cj0KCQjwreT8BRDTARIsAJLI0KIs6s3o08IIB7qjAf4TR49NZ1q56QvOhfkVdeSC62hAn2OJArxsttUaAtmyEALw_wcB

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Chartered Accountant (England & Wales); Registered Tax Agent & Fellow of The Tax Institute (Australia)

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3 hours ago, Paul1Perth said:

This weekend people will be out in Melbourne, eating, drinking, celebrating, shopping, life feeling almost back to normal. 

Well worth the lockdown, things will improve quickly once people can get out.

Really ? - will some of the businesses recover ?

 


BUT I DONT FEEL AFRAID

AS LONG AS I GAZE AT

WATERLOO SUNSET

IAM IN PARADISE

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19 minutes ago, bunbury61 said:

Really ? - will some of the businesses recover ?

 

Well today we took enormous pleasure in going out to a restaurant for lunch. I always said Australians were amongst the most obedient people in the world- not many places would accept being under lock and key for months and months like we have.What we have done would not be possible anywhere else in the world.

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26 minutes ago, Ken said:

There were 64,000 more deaths in the UK in the period 28th February to 5th June 2020 than there were in the comparative period of 2019 (187,000 deaths in 2020 vs 123,000 in 2019). Now you will get some fluctuation from year to year and even an increasing trend due to a larger and older population, but that large a number of extra deaths clearly shows that the UK drastically understated the number of COVID-19 deaths in that period. Stop trying to pretend these people would all have died anyway. These figures do not include anyone who died after 5th June.

Source: https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/comparing-covid-19-impact-in-the-uk-to-european-countries?gclid=Cj0KCQjwreT8BRDTARIsAJLI0KIs6s3o08IIB7qjAf4TR49NZ1q56QvOhfkVdeSC62hAn2OJArxsttUaAtmyEALw_wcB

Not 100% certain on your figures but happy to take your word for it.....of the 64k deaths I think about 20% - 25% of them were not coronavirus deaths.....ie not mentioned on the death certificate......so were do you suppose they came from......maybe there is another corona virus out there that is not detectable and thats what accounts for those 12k to 15k extra deaths or maybe......they were people that died because they were too terrified to go to their doctors or hospital or had their treatments cancelled and died at home.....at the moment you are in a position to quote actual figures from corona virus deaths albeit a bit of a ridiculous and exaggerated method of accounting for them......give it 2 years or even 5 years.....lets see how many people have succumbed due to the restriction imposed on society during 2020...... those cancer patients not diagnosed or those that had treatments cancelled......people with heart conditions.....transplant patients unable to receive treatment or transplants.....mental health patients unable to obtain any form of treatment and those that just decide to take their own life.....job losses and loss of living standards all resulting in death.....I wouldn't mind placing a friendly wager with you that the number of people dying as a result of these restrictions far out numbers the elderly and vulnerable that succumb to this virus.....what do you think Ken?

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2 hours ago, unzippy said:

I've just been out for dinner (sat down) and then a pint in the way home.

Melbourne is not locked down.

some short term memory loss by any chance or is it a case of just trying to block it out....honestly.....it never really happened.....what 4 months.....all good now though champ.....as Paul said by the weekend it will all just return back to normal as if nothing had ever happened......ZZzZzzzZZzZzzzz......

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4 hours ago, starlight7 said:

Well today we took enormous pleasure in going out to a restaurant for lunch. I always said Australians were amongst the most obedient people in the world- not many places would accept being under lock and key for months and months like we have.What we have done would not be possible anywhere else in the world.

We haven't stopped going out here to eat or for a beer - a bit of commonsense goes a long way .

What melbourne has done is the same as what n.z has done 

But at what cost to some melbourne businesses ?

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BUT I DONT FEEL AFRAID

AS LONG AS I GAZE AT

WATERLOO SUNSET

IAM IN PARADISE

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4 hours ago, kungfustu said:

some short term memory loss by any chance or is it a case of just trying to block it out....honestly.....it never really happened.....what 4 months.....all good now though champ.....as Paul said by the weekend it will all just return back to normal as if nothing had ever happened......ZZzZzzzZZzZzzzz......

I really feel sorry for some of the business owners , who must be on their arse 

Its as if the 4 months never happened 


BUT I DONT FEEL AFRAID

AS LONG AS I GAZE AT

WATERLOO SUNSET

IAM IN PARADISE

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10 hours ago, s713 said:

We have been in tier 3 for 2 weeks now and the infection rate is not reducing significantly. These halfway measures don't work. We need a Wales-style lockdown or nothing.

Yesterday's deaths were 210 or so of which only 6 people didn't have underlying health conditions.

There are a lot of nutjobs here who think coronavirus isn't a thing, of course it is. But, for most people the chances of succumbing to it are very small. So, why aren't the Govt. encouraging vulnerable groups to isolate whilst the vast majority of people, and businesses, continue to go about their lives?

222 hospitality businesses have gone to the wall in Liverpool, since March. The cost of these lockdown measures is going to change our landscape for ever.

We need an exit strategy, once it gets to December everyone is going to ignore these measures anyway, there's no way anyone is going to observe lockdown over Xmas. Which reinforces why we should have had a hard lockdown now. Unfortunately the people in charge are clueless.

Yep, you wouldn't believe how clueless

Quote

Until a working vaccine is released and widely used, our best hope of controlling Covid-19 is testing, tracing and isolating people who might carry the disease. Even after a vaccine is produced, test and trace will remain essential, as inoculation will not be completely effective, or universally accepted.Today, it’s our only real hope of preventing repeated lockdowns, and other great interruptions to our lives. Yet the English system on which our freedoms depend is a total fiasco. The government has so far spent £12bn on test and trace. But, as a result of catastrophic mismanagement, it might as well have flushed this money down the toilet, as tracing has failed to reach the critical threshold (roughly 80% of contacts) needed to reduce the infection rate. Last week, after a further fall, the figure stood at just under 60%.

To put this in context, £12bn is more than the entire general practice budget. The total NHS capital spending budget for buildings and equipment is just £7bn. To provide all the children in need with free meals during school holidays between now and next summer term, which the government has dismissed as too expensive, is likely to cost about £120m: in other words, just 1% of the test and trace budget.

Because so much about this essential programme has been shrouded in secrecy, it’s not easy to see where the money has gone. But the breakdown of the system appears to result at least in part from its oversight by corporate executives (led by Dido Harding), with no relevant experience in public health and a tra3ck record of failure, rather than by professional public servantsThe government has created an opaque and unmanageable hybrid system of public and private provision, in which favoured corporations have received vast contracts without competition, advertising or even penalty clauses. Public health, reorganised in the midst of the pandemic to give even greater control to Harding and her chums, is in semi-privatised meltdown.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/28/england-coronavirus-covid-test-and-trace-teenagers

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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.23.20218446v1

Interesting survey of where the virus in the UK was imported from, up until June.

Country    Observed importations      Percentage
Spain                   387.12          33.066
France                  334.04          28.532
Italy                   140.83          12.029
Belgium                 84.88           7.25
Netherlands             55.08           4.705
Ireland                 45.3            3.869
Switzerland             34.91           2.982
US                      29.16           2.491
Germany                 10.85           0.927
Portugal                9.56            0.817
Sweden                  6.71            0.573
China                   4.64            0.397
Denmark                 3.84            0.328
Austria                 3.48            0.297
Romania                 2.24            0.191
Norway                  1.95            0.167
Poland                  1.28            0.109
Canada                  1.08            0.093
Turkey                  0.96            0.082
Hungary                 0.95            0.081
Czechia                 0.65            0.056
Greece                  0.55            0.047
United Arab Emirates    0.3             0.026
Israel                  0.27            0.023
Finland                 0.25            0.022
Iran                    0.22            0.019
South Korea             0.2             0.017
Morocco                 0.18            0.015
Brazil                  0.17            0.015
Dominican Republic      0.16            0.013
Mexico                  0.08            0.007
Serbia                  0.07            0.006
Japan                   0.07            0.006
Egypt                   0.06            0.005
Malaysia                0.05            0.004
Pakistan                0.05            0.004
Moldova                 0.04            0.004
Philippines             0.04            0.003
Russia                  0.03            0.003
Ecuador                 0.03            0.003
Other                   8.39            0.717

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18 hours ago, kungfustu said:

Not 100% certain on your figures but happy to take your word for it.....of the 64k deaths I think about 20% - 25% of them were not coronavirus deaths.....ie not mentioned on the death certificate......so were do you suppose they came from......maybe there is another corona virus out there that is not detectable and thats what accounts for those 12k to 15k extra deaths or maybe......they were people that died because they were too terrified to go to their doctors or hospital or had their treatments cancelled and died at home.....at the moment you are in a position to quote actual figures from corona virus deaths albeit a bit of a ridiculous and exaggerated method of accounting for them......give it 2 years or even 5 years.....lets see how many people have succumbed due to the restriction imposed on society during 2020...... those cancer patients not diagnosed or those that had treatments cancelled......people with heart conditions.....transplant patients unable to receive treatment or transplants.....mental health patients unable to obtain any form of treatment and those that just decide to take their own life.....job losses and loss of living standards all resulting in death.....I wouldn't mind placing a friendly wager with you that the number of people dying as a result of these restrictions far out numbers the elderly and vulnerable that succumb to this virus.....what do you think Ken?

Up to 5th June the official total of UK Coronavirus deaths was only 40,000 so 37.5% of these 64,000 deaths were (officially) not coronavirus deaths. The main thing that accounts for the other 24,000 deaths not being counted as Coronavirus is that they weren't tested but (as you've said) a second factor is where they died of something that would have been treatable in a normal year but their treatment was cancelled due to Coronavirus. I still consider that to be a death caused by Coronavirus even if it doesn't qualify to go on the death certificate.

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21 hours ago, unzippy said:

I've just been out for dinner (sat down) and then a pint in the way home.

Melbourne is not locked down.

Melbourne is still locked down. Just not locked down as tightly as it used to be. For example you still can't travel more than 25km from home or into regional Victoria (unless you have a permit for work reasons etc).

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18 hours ago, bunbury61 said:

I really feel sorry for some of the business owners , who must be on their arse 

Its as if the 4 months never happened 

Its a bit like child birth.....the most painful experience they can possible have but 24 hours later they have forgotten all about it and would do it all again if asked......

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18 hours ago, bunbury61 said:

We haven't stopped going out here to eat or for a beer - a bit of commonsense goes a long way .

What melbourne has done is the same as what n.z has done 

But at what cost to some melbourne businesses ?

The funny thing is they are now hailing it as a great success.....a master stroke in controlling this deadly virus.....no one seems to have considered though.....at what cost.....I know a few people that live in Melbourne.....I have customers that have relatives that live there....not one person I spoke to was willing to put their stamp of approval on Dans master plan.....4 months!!....wasn't it only supposed to be for a few weeks which then turned into a few more weeks then months.....its a one dimensional approach to a complex problem.....

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23 hours ago, starlight7 said:

Well today we took enormous pleasure in going out to a restaurant for lunch. I always said Australians were amongst the most obedient people in the world- not many places would accept being under lock and key for months and months like we have.What we have done would not be possible anywhere else in the world.

China......North Korea.....?

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On 28/10/2020 at 12:25, starlight7 said:

Well today we took enormous pleasure in going out to a restaurant for lunch. I always said Australians were amongst the most obedient people in the world- not many places would accept being under lock and key for months and months like we have.What we have done would not be possible anywhere else in the world.

I am not sure all did accept being under lock and key.  There’s a big difference between being obedient/accepting and being so scared of the huge, unaffordable fine you’d get if caught, especially as so many had financial worries over loss of jobs/likely job losses that you have to tow the line. It worked so I’m certainly not suggesting all was wrong but many didn’t accept it, they just had no choice.  Nice that you can all start going out again though, I’m sure it will be a welcome relief. 

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1 hour ago, Tulip1 said:

I am not sure all did accept being under lock and key.  There’s a big difference between being obedient/accepting and being so scared of the huge, unaffordable fine you’d get if caught, especially as so many had financial worries over loss of jobs/likely job losses that you have to tow the line. It worked so I’m certainly not suggesting all was wrong but many didn’t accept it, they just had no choice.  Nice that you can all start going out again though, I’m sure it will be a welcome relief. 

So if there had been no fine would people have ignored the restrictions, there has been a lot of talk about civic duty and responsibility, lines and lines of text about common sense, but it seems when push comes to shove for a lot of people they just want to keep on doing what they want to do and forget the implications for wider society 

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On 28/10/2020 at 12:25, starlight7 said:

Well today we took enormous pleasure in going out to a restaurant for lunch. I always said Australians were amongst the most obedient people in the world- not many places would accept being under lock and key for months and months like we have.What we have done would not be possible anywhere else in the world.

Starlight you have been living in a police state for 4 months , you probably earned an afternoon out ....I wouldnt praise your obedience 

Its ridiculous what is going on.

Some of the arrests for non compliance are truly worrying .

Some stated that melbourne was open again this weekend , as if nothing had happened ...tell that to the lost business owners . 

You can always tell that these comments from people ,who have never owned a business 

Italy has had a massive lockdown set up - and now they are in full lockdown again 

Sweden has had no lockdown and is doing better than most ,and has had no lockdown 

Commonsense - gloves - masks ,- eat well - sleep well - stack up on your vitamins and social distancing 

No need for 4 months of lockdown 


BUT I DONT FEEL AFRAID

AS LONG AS I GAZE AT

WATERLOO SUNSET

IAM IN PARADISE

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Deaths globally 1.18 million .

The world has gone into meltdown and the population of perth has died because of it .

How man people have died of other diseases during the same time period 

TB 

INFLUENZA 

We are going into tier 3 lockdown in the west midlands  on Monday- some businesses will not survive 


BUT I DONT FEEL AFRAID

AS LONG AS I GAZE AT

WATERLOO SUNSET

IAM IN PARADISE

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7 hours ago, BacktoDemocracy said:

So if there had been no fine would people have ignored the restrictions, there has been a lot of talk about civic duty and responsibility, lines and lines of text about common sense, but it seems when push comes to shove for a lot of people they just want to keep on doing what they want to do and forget the implications for wider society 

Many would have have adhered to the restrictions even without fines/consequences but human nature is such that it’s likely some wouldn’t have.  Take the U.K., very few fines have actually been given out since March so a certain amount of people just do what they want.  Mask wearing in shops for example.  It’s  just hoped people will wear one but  neither the shops or the police enforce/ask people to leave if they’re not wearing one. I believe in Melbourne people who are exempt from wearing one have to have evidence of that or they will be fined. Nothing like that here.  To say it would be completely different between the two countries if the consequences were the same would be saying people in Australia are much more considerate and descent than those in the U.K. I’ve always thought of both countries as quite equal in their values and decency. Based on that it’s likely to have been the fear of higher consequences that resulted in better compliance. Non of that though was really about what my comment was saying. It was just in response to the comment that people accepted the hard lockdown. A lot of people didn’t accept it but could do nothing about it and faced harsh punishment if they didn’t tow the line.  I also said I wasn’t saying it was all bad,  just many were far from accepting of the harshness of it. They behaved or faced high fines or even jail. I saw on the news earlier that some guy here in a tier 3 area got given a £10k fine because the police came across him having a christening party for his baby with loads of people there and a DJ too. He seemed most put out his guests had to leave and all the food laid out on big tables cost him lots of money. Well it’s just cost him a whole load more now. Selfish man, I’m glad he got slapped with a big fine.  We have got much better with giving out fines in recent weeks which can only be a good thing based on our terribly high covid numbers.  

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