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simmo

The UK and Climate Change

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MET OFFICE ADMITS THE UK IS NOW COOLING !!!
 

The last decade in the UK went down as the ‘second’ hottest of the past 100 years, at least according to the Met Office’s temperature dataset AND this recent article from the BBC.

But taking the Met’s politicized, warm-mongering, UHI-ignoring data as read, for arguments sake, the simple fact remains: the 2010’s have come out cooler than the 2000’s — the agency may be in control of the spin, but it hasn’t been able to fudge the findings.

Dr Mark McCarthy, from the Met Office in Exeter, said it was “a consequence of our warming climate”.

That’s right, Mark — despite this most recent decade coming out cooler than the previous one, the AGW juggernaut must keep-on rolling, your funding depends on it, doesn’t it? And even in the face of such evidence to the contrary, you can’t bring yourself to stop and ask… why, or how… the 2010’s were cooler than the 2000’s?

I was told average temperatures would rise “linearly” –always up and up and up on an endless march to catastrophe if no action was taken– as depicted by Michael Mann’s now infamous Hockey Stick Graph:
 

Image result for michael mann's hockey stick graph


Now, I can buy a year or two falling out of line — local weather patterns and natural ocean current-fluctuations etc. can explain why 2018 was cooler than 2017 and 2016, for example.

But an entire decade dropping by the wayside?

No, this appears to be evidence that the sun has had its say, that its Grand Solar MAXIMUM has run its course and that its activity is now waning, likely ushering in the onset of earth’s next cooling cycle — perhaps even the next Grand Solar MINIMUM:
 

Solar-Cycle-25-NASA-full.png?w=640&ssl=1


Furthermore, the BBC is also trying to paint 2019 as a disastrously hot year.

But the reality, again according to the Met Office’s own warm-mongering data, is that 2019 was merely the 11th warmest on record — hardly signs of an impending fiery doom.

And serving as a further indication of how hard it is for the Met to tell it’s arse from it’s elbow, I’ll leave you with this recent quote from Dr Mark McCarthy: “We are expecting to see an increase in winter rainfall, so wetter winters and drier summers — but we could still experience dry winters and wet summers.”

Bases covered — the AGW juggernaut is safe to roll-on for at least another decade.
 

Or is it…
 

GSM-and-Sunspots.png?resize=640%2C249&ss


…natural climate cycles can scupper even the best-laid frauds.

And as the lower-latitudes continue to refreeze, as depicted by the below Total Snow Mass for the Northern Hemisphere chart, a period of GSM-induced global cooling is likely that natural climate cycle.
 

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Met Office: UK's 10 hottest years on record occurred since 2002

The UK’s 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 2002, the Met Office has said. Its statistics stretching back to 1884 reveal a worrying trend, as the planet as a whole deals with the climate crisis.

In a further indication of how the climate is heating up, the records show that none of the UK’s 10 coldest years have occurred since 1963.

“The world has warmed 1C since pre-industrial times, meaning that hot years are the new normal,” said Dr Michael Byrne from the University of St Andrews. “Not only is the UK getting warmer, but also wetter, with 13% more summer rain compared to last century. With global emissions of greenhouse gases on the rise, the UK will continue to get warmer and wetter as global warming accelerates.


Drinking rum before 11am does not make you an alcoholic, it makes you pirate..

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2 minutes ago, Perthbum said:

Met Office: UK's 10 hottest years on record occurred since 2002

The UK’s 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 2002, the Met Office has said. Its statistics stretching back to 1884 reveal a worrying trend, as the planet as a whole deals with the climate crisis.

In a further indication of how the climate is heating up, the records show that none of the UK’s 10 coldest years have occurred since 1963.

“The world has warmed 1C since pre-industrial times, meaning that hot years are the new normal,” said Dr Michael Byrne from the University of St Andrews. “Not only is the UK getting warmer, but also wetter, with 13% more summer rain compared to last century. With global emissions of greenhouse gases on the rise, the UK will continue to get warmer and wetter as global warming accelerates.

yes... its a solar cycle dummy!

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35 minutes ago, simmo said:

yes... its a solar cycle dummy!

Image result for yeh sure it is


Drinking rum before 11am does not make you an alcoholic, it makes you pirate..

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5 hours ago, Perthbum said:

Image result for yeh sure it is

Havent got any opinion either way .

All I know is , winter ain't nothing like when I was a child .

Its mid jan - temps are 7-11c

The birds are whistling and the daffs are appearing 

20200108_164345.jpg

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BUT I DONT FEEL AFRAID

AS LONG AS I GAZE AT

WATERLOO SUNSET

IAM IN PARADISE

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Posted (edited)

Missed your calling simmo, you could have been a weather girl.

I'd certainly avoid statistics if I were you.

Perhaps you can explain the statistical significance of a decade? 

Edited by newjez
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42 minutes ago, newjez said:

Missed your calling simmo, you could have been a weather girl.

I'd certainly avoid statistics if I were you.

Perhaps you can explain the statistical significance of a decade? 

Giyf 😘

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10 hours ago, simmo said:

Giyf 😘

Information isn't much use if you don't know what it means.

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39 minutes ago, newjez said:

Information isn't much use if you don't know what it means.

Well don't bother then. Simples.

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57 minutes ago, simmo said:

Well don't bother then. Simples.

Why did you bother then?

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Scot by birth, emigrated 1985 | Aussie husband applied UK spouse visa Jan 2015, granted March 2015, moved to UK May 2015 | Returned to Oz June 2016

"The stranger who comes home does not make himself at home but makes home itself strange." -- Rainer Maria Rilke

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13 minutes ago, Marisawright said:

Why did you bother then?

No bother hun. 

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13 hours ago, Rallyman said:

Big money to be made of all this 

Yep , big oil, big coal still minting it with all the subsidies they get, despite all the money they spend on propaganda to shill the gullible

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Chance of summer heatwaves now thirty times more likely

Human-induced climate change has made the 2018 record-breaking UK summer temperatures about 30 times more likely than it would be naturally, the Met Office will say at CoP24 - in Poland – later today (6 December 2018).

Professor Peter Stott is a world-leading expert on climate attribution based at the Met Office and the University of Exeter in the UK. He said: “Our provisional study compared computer models based on today’s climate with those of the natural climate we would have had without human-induced emissions. We find that the intensity of this summer’s heatwave is around 30 times more likely than would have been the case without climate change.”

Met Office scientist Dr Nikolaos Christidis who was also involved in the study said: “Our models show that there is now about a 12% chance of summer average temperatures being as high as the UK experienced in summer 2018. This compares with a less than half per cent chance we’d expect in a natural climate.”

In the UKCP18 climate projections published last week, the Met Office described that by mid-century, such hot summers could become very common, happening around 50% of the time.

Professor Stott added: “This rapidly increasing chance results from the increase in concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The most recent figure is for 2017, which shows the atmosphere held around 405.5 parts per million of CO2. This represents 146 % of the values in the pre-industrial era (before 1750), when the atmospheric concentration was about 280 parts per million.”

2018 was the equal-warmest summer for the UK in a series from 1910, along with 2006, 2003 and 1976.

The UK’s hottest day of the summer was on 27 July, with 35.6 °C recorded at Felsham (Suffolk); 32 °C was exceeded widely across East Anglia and south-east England on both 26 and 27 July and temperatures reached 35 °C on both dates in parts of East Anglia, Kent and central London. Temperatures above 35 °C are unusual but not unprecedented in the UK having been recorded in the summers of 2015, 2006, 2003, 1995, 1990 and 1976. More information here.

Today’s announcement is part of an ongoing in-depth Met Office analysis of the causes of the 2018 heatwave. Other components to this research will include the role of changing circulation patterns and ocean temperatures.

Professor Stephen Belcher, Met Office Chief Scientist said: “The extreme temperatures experienced in the UK and around the world during summer 2018 had a significant impact upon many people’s lives. Analysis from scientists at the Met Office has shown that we now live in a climate in which heatwaves will occur much more frequently and, depending on the choices we make around greenhouse gas emissions, we could reach a point in the future when we can expect a hot summer like that of 2018 to occur every year.”


Drinking rum before 11am does not make you an alcoholic, it makes you pirate..

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Met Office 

2020 set to extend series of Earth’s warmest years

The Met Office annual global temperature forecast for 2020 suggests that next year will once again extend the series of the earth’s hottest years, since records began in 1850.

The series of warmest years began in 2015; the first year when global temperatures exceeded 1.0 °C above the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).

The warmest year on record was in 2016, when significant El Niño-related warming in the tropical Pacific boosted the global temperature. 2020 is projected to be another very warm year, but this time without a strong El Niño signal.

The Met Office forecasts the global average temperature for 2020 to be between 0.99 °C and 1.23 °C - with a central estimate of 1.11 °C - above the pre-industrial average period from 1850–1900. Since 1850, 2016 was the warmest year on record with a central estimate of 1.16 °C above the same baseline.

In the absence of strong El Niño-induced warming in the Pacific, rising levels of greenhouse gases are driving the 2020 temperature forecast. Professor Adam Scaife is the Met Office head of long-range prediction. He said: “Natural events – such as El Niño-induced warming in the Pacific – influence the climate system, but in the absence of El Niño, this forecast gives a clear picture of the strongest factor causing temperatures to rise: greenhouse gas emissions.”

The forecast is based on the key drivers of the global climate, but it doesn’t include unpredictable events, such as a large volcanic eruption, which would cause a temporary cooling. Dr Nick Dunstone, an expert in climate variability at the Met Office, said: “Although the Earth has warmed by about 1.0 °C on average since pre-industrial times, this isn’t spread evenly over the surface of the globe as much of the warming is occurring in the Arctic and over land masses. This was a feature of climate change that was predicted at the time of the launch of the Met Office Hadley Centre and the publication of the first IPCC report thirty years ago.”

The Met Office’s forecast for the 2019 global mean temperature, issued at the end of 2018 (0.98 °C to 1.22 °C with a central estimate of 1.10 °C), agrees closely with the latest observations of global temperature so far this year. Data from Jan-Oct 2019 shows the global mean temperature is 1.11±0.10 °C above pre-industrial levels.

Dr Doug Smith, Met Office research fellow, said: “The forecast for 2020 would place next year amongst the six warmest years on record, which would all have occurred since 2015. All of these years have been around 1.0 °C warmer than the pre-industrial period.”

The global temperature series is an average of three global temperature data sets: HadCRUT; NOAAGlobalTemp; and GISTEMP.

 

Table 1: Global temperature series from 1997

 

Year

Combined Series (degC)

Combined Series uncertainty

 

Year

Combined Series (degC)

Combined Series uncertainty

2020 forecast

1.11

0.12

 

2008

0.72

0.02

2019
to the end of October

1.10

0.11

 

2007

0.82

0.06

2018

0.98

0.12

 

2006

0.82

0.02

2017

1.06

0.11

 

2005

0.86

0.03

2016

1.16

0.09

 

2004

0.75

0.04

2015

1.09

0.02

 

2003

0.82

0.02

2014

0.91

0.04

 

2002

0.81

0.02

2013

0.85

0.04

 

2001

0.74

0.03

2012

0.81

0.04

 

2000

0.60

0.03

2011

0.76

0.05

 

1999

0.61

0.05

2010

0.90

0.04

 

1998

0.83

0.06

2009

0.83

0.03

 

1997

0.68

0.05

 


Drinking rum before 11am does not make you an alcoholic, it makes you pirate..

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If UK keeps warming up then there won't be any reason for poms to come to Australia.

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I want it all, and I want it now.

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54 minutes ago, Parley said:

If UK keeps warming up then there won't be any reason for poms to come to Australia.

bulya will be happy.

Actually no he wont.

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2 hours ago, Parley said:

If UK keeps warming up then there won't be any reason for poms to come to Australia.

Its to hot in Oz for poms


Drinking rum before 11am does not make you an alcoholic, it makes you pirate..

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3 hours ago, Parley said:

If UK keeps warming up then there won't be any reason for poms to come to Australia.

Winter has generally been later - let's see what march brings 

At the moment it's ridiculous for January 

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BUT I DONT FEEL AFRAID

AS LONG AS I GAZE AT

WATERLOO SUNSET

IAM IN PARADISE

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4 minutes ago, bunbury61 said:

Winter has generally been later - let's see what march brings 

At the moment it's ridiculous for January 

Not even a frost last year and its like early spring already, its weird.


Drinking rum before 11am does not make you an alcoholic, it makes you pirate..

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5 hours ago, Parley said:

If UK keeps warming up then there won't be any reason for poms to come to Australia.

You’d miss them really 

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Genuine question - for those that advocate that human interference has no/limited impact on naturally ocurring climate change (not dismissing that view, I just dont share it). What would be the alleged motivation for lying about human impact on climate change? Surely logic would suggest that there are stronger motivations to deny climate change caused by burning fossil fuels, given the large sums of money to be made burning them. What motivations (financial or otherwise) offer bigger gain that that to motivate climate change 'believers'? We've gone to war to secure oil so we can sell it and burn it, we havent yet gone to war to plant trees

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:evilface_frowning_s

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12 hours ago, Perthbum said:

Not even a frost last year and its like early spring already, its weird.

November/December was quite cold. We had half a dozen frosts. Maybe you don't get up early enough? January is warm so far. 

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42 minutes ago, MacGyver said:

Genuine question - for those that advocate that human interference has no/limited impact on naturally ocurring climate change (not dismissing that view, I just dont share it). What would be the alleged motivation for lying about human impact on climate change? Surely logic would suggest that there are stronger motivations to deny climate change caused by burning fossil fuels, given the large sums of money to be made burning them. What motivations (financial or otherwise) offer bigger gain that that to motivate climate change 'believers'? We've gone to war to secure oil so we can sell it and burn it, we havent yet gone to war to plant trees

Money, big money to be made 

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1 hour ago, MacGyver said:

Genuine question - for those that advocate that human interference has no/limited impact on naturally ocurring climate change (not dismissing that view, I just dont share it). What would be the alleged motivation for lying about human impact on climate change? Surely logic would suggest that there are stronger motivations to deny climate change caused by burning fossil fuels, given the large sums of money to be made burning them. What motivations (financial or otherwise) offer bigger gain that that to motivate climate change 'believers'? We've gone to war to secure oil so we can sell it and burn it, we havent yet gone to war to plant trees

No one is lying about anything.

Different people have different genuinely held beliefs as with lots of issues.

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I want it all, and I want it now.

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