Parent visa application timelines (143 & 173)

[Biggsy]

11 hours ago, patience said:

Hope this information helps everyone https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/foi/files/2019/fa-190500418-document-released.PDF

Thanks Patience, how did you find this? Been looking for this sort of information for a while now to try and do some forecasting.   I extracted the data and did some analysis on it.  According to those figures it looks like the currently processing date will stick at May/June 2017 for well over a year based on the current 143 cap. See attached pdf.  If anyone has trouble viewing the pdf let me know.

CPV Lodgement Date Analysis.pdf

[AlwaysVet]

3 hours ago, Biggsy said:

Thanks Patience, how did you find this? Been looking for this sort of information for a while now to try and do some forecasting.   I extracted the data and did some analysis on it.  According to those figures it looks like the currently processing date will stick at May/June 2017 for well over a year based on the current 143 cap. See attached pdf.  If anyone has trouble viewing the pdf let me know.

CPV Lodgement Date Analysis.pdf

Thank you so much. This is great!!

[Christa]

4 hours ago, Biggsy said:

Thanks Patience, how did you find this? Been looking for this sort of information for a while now to try and do some forecasting.   I extracted the data and did some analysis on it.  According to those figures it looks like the currently processing date will stick at May/June 2017 for well over a year based on the current 143 cap. See attached pdf.  If anyone has trouble viewing the pdf let me know.

CPV Lodgement Date Analysis.pdf

Thank you and Patience for the data. This is very informative but when it says 1 lodgement, could this be for each application lodged, and is it not the case that each application could include a partner and/or other family members and therefore the figures here become misleading? 

[Biggsy]

38 minutes ago, Christa said:

Thank you and Patience for the data. This is very informative but when it says 1 lodgement, could this be for each application lodged, and is it not the case that each application could include a partner and/or other family members and therefore the figures here become misleading? 

I'm not 100% sure, the figures are similar to what I've seen before and always seem to be compared with the cap (7175), hopefully it won't matter if we are comparing like for like.  I played around with the data a little more and created a report forecasting a date range for each lodgement month when processing might begin. It's based on todays date, last known currently processing date (I used 16 Dec 2015) and the number of places potentially processed per day using the cap. It was very interesting, my own forecast to start processing was between the 1st and 30th July 2020. By the end of this year it forecast that lodgement dates of March 2016 could be in progress. However I'd be worried about putting that document up for public viewing just in case it's misleading. I may monitor it and see how it looks.  No doubt the Oz Christmas break will impact on the dates and also we have no idea how far into the cap they are and could stop for a while if reached. 

[theballies]

2 hours ago, Biggsy said:

I'm not 100% sure, the figures are similar to what I've seen before and always seem to be compared with the cap (7175), hopefully it won't matter if we are comparing like for like.  I played around with the data a little more and created a report forecasting a date range for each lodgement month when processing might begin. It's based on todays date, last known currently processing date (I used 16 Dec 2015) and the number of places potentially processed per day using the cap. It was very interesting, my own forecast to start processing was between the 1st and 30th July 2020. By the end of this year it forecast that lodgement dates of March 2016 could be in progress. However I'd be worried about putting that document up for public viewing just in case it's misleading. I may monitor it and see how it looks.  No doubt the Oz Christmas break will impact on the dates and also we have no idea how far into the cap they are and could stop for a while if reached. 

Great work thanks I hope things keep moving as they have been.  My parents are Jan 2016

[theballies]

I have seen a lady on Facebook who said she applied in Dec 2015 (she’s unsure of the date) but received acknowledgement letter on 6 Jan 2016.  She got CO on Tuesday 13 Aug

[SusieRoo]

2 hours ago, Biggsy said:

I'm not 100% sure, the figures are similar to what I've seen before and always seem to be compared with the cap (7175), hopefully it won't matter if we are comparing like for like.  I played around with the data a little more and created a report forecasting a date range for each lodgement month when processing might begin. It's based on todays date, last known currently processing date (I used 16 Dec 2015) and the number of places potentially processed per day using the cap. It was very interesting, my own forecast to start processing was between the 1st and 30th July 2020. By the end of this year it forecast that lodgement dates of March 2016 could be in progress. However I'd be worried about putting that document up for public viewing just in case it's misleading. I may monitor it and see how it looks.  No doubt the Oz Christmas break will impact on the dates and also we have no idea how far into the cap they are and could stop for a while if reached. 

Thank you for posting your very informative CPV sheet.

I’ve just been having a rough count of how many applications are in front of our March 2016 lodgement date.  If I include both 143s and 173s, it works out at about 4500 applications. And because there are often multiple applicants per application (I’m assuming a ratio of 1.7:1), that’s 7650 visas to grant before they get to us. And as they have been granting about 6000 CPVs per year, it should take at approximately 15 months (November 2020). Which is slightly better than my previous assessment.

Interesting to see so many applications in May and June 2017. If you add in the 173s and use the same 1.7:1 ratio, that’s 15,000 applicants in just two months (or 30 months of processing time). And even worse when you add up all of the 2016/17 year, it will take five years to process just this one year.

It would be good to get any feedback on my assumption of 1.7 people per application. Does this sound about right? I’m thinking there will be a mixture of single applicants, couples and families for each application on the list. 

Edited August 15, 2019 by SusieRoo

[patience]

11 hours ago, Biggsy said:

Thanks Patience, how did you find this? Been looking for this sort of information for a while now to try and do some forecasting.   I extracted the data and did some analysis on it.  According to those figures it looks like the currently processing date will stick at May/June 2017 for well over a year based on the current 143 cap. See attached pdf.  If anyone has trouble viewing the pdf let me know.

CPV Lodgement Date Analysis.pdf

Australia got Freedom of information policy (FOI) under which people can request information from various departments and same with immigration. So someone requested this info. You can Search border foi logs on google and can see logs for same. 

[ramot]

5 hours ago, SusieRoo said:

Thank you for posting your very informative CPV sheet.

I’ve just been having a rough count of how many applications are in front of our March 2016 lodgement date.  If I include both 143s and 173s, it works out at about 4500 applications. And because there are often multiple applicants per application (I’m assuming a ratio of 1.7:1), that’s 7650 visas to grant before they get to us. And as they have been granting about 6000 CPVs per year, it should take at approximately 15 months (November 2020). Which is slightly better than my previous assessment.

Interesting to see so many applications in May and June 2017. If you add in the 173s and use the same 1.7:1 ratio, that’s 15,000 applicants in just two months (or 30 months of processing time). And even worse when you add up all of the 2016/17 year, it will take five years to process just this one year.

It would be good to get any feedback on my assumption of 1.7 people per application. Does this sound about right? I’m thinking there will be a mixture of single applicants, couples and families for each application on the list. 

I wonder if the number of visas granted count as 1 or are a multiple of the number of applicants in each application? Then again if a husband and wife apply is that one application or 2? and Would that cancel out more visas granted than originally applied for?

I have no idea, just raising the thought.

To add to your statistics, although we later withdrew our 864 visa application.

We applied March 2017, and the number of visas granted have moved only 4 months, from September 2016 to January 2017. So did we lessen the queue by one or two?

 

143 pathway visa granted March 2019

Edited August 16, 2019 by ramot

[patience]

I think they count it as one app not each applicant otherwise there will be 80000 plus in que and someone that applies today will be 13 year wait which is not the case

[Biggsy]

10 hours ago, SusieRoo said:

Thank you for posting your very informative CPV sheet.

I’ve just been having a rough count of how many applications are in front of our March 2016 lodgement date.  If I include both 143s and 173s, it works out at about 4500 applications. And because there are often multiple applicants per application (I’m assuming a ratio of 1.7:1), that’s 7650 visas to grant before they get to us. And as they have been granting about 6000 CPVs per year, it should take at approximately 15 months (November 2020). Which is slightly better than my previous assessment.

Interesting to see so many applications in May and June 2017. If you add in the 173s and use the same 1.7:1 ratio, that’s 15,000 applicants in just two months (or 30 months of processing time). And even worse when you add up all of the 2016/17 year, it will take five years to process just this one year.

It would be good to get any feedback on my assumption of 1.7 people per application. Does this sound about right? I’m thinking there will be a mixture of single applicants, couples and families for each application on the list. 

I also extracted the 173 data but excluded it as I wasn't sure it counted in the annual cap/allocation of 143's.  On the home affairs website it says when you have a 173 you then can apply for a 143! If the 173's were included in the numbers wouldn't they then be counted twice?  Once when applying for the 173 then again when applying for the 143.  Can anyone out there clarify this for us please?

[Biggsy]

5 hours ago, patience said:

I think they count it as one app not each applicant otherwise there will be 80000 plus in que and someone that applies today will be 13 year wait which is not the case

Yes I'm pretty sure you're right about that (I hope)

[patience]

17 minutes ago, Biggsy said:

Yes I'm pretty sure you're right about that (I hope)

If this is not the case then the numbers in that pdf/in the que include secondary applicants too. 

[LindaH27]

I wonder what caused the huge jump in May and June 2017? That’s going to take years to process!! 

[patience]

This visa is all about being patient and that is why I used that username. If you spread positivity the wait time runs by but if you spread negativity all the time then it gets difficult to wait. Although most users here are helpful. Some always see the glass half empty.

[Biggsy]

28 minutes ago, patience said:

This visa is all about being patient and that is why I used that username. If you spread positivity the wait time runs by but if you spread negativity all the time then it gets difficult to wait. Although most users here are helpful. Some always see the glass half empty.

Quite right, I'm ok with the waiting but I think for many people it's soul destroying not having any idea of how long the wait will be.

[LindaH27]

To put it another way - some of us are overly optimistic and some of us are just being realistic !  We are all different and the help is given in different ways. I’m not expecting to hear anything at all for at least another 3 years but will just make long visits every year whilst waiting. It would help too if everybody put their timeline in their signature. 

[Biggsy]

3 hours ago, LindaH27 said:

I wonder what caused the huge jump in May and June 2017? That’s going to take years to process!! 

Bit weird isn't it!

I wonder if some people unwittingly think that they need to get their application in before the end of June and if they do they will get processed sooner!

[SusieRoo]

7 hours ago, Biggsy said:

I also extracted the 173 data but excluded it as I wasn't sure it counted in the annual cap/allocation of 143's.  On the home affairs website it says when you have a 173 you then can apply for a 143! If the 173's were included in the numbers wouldn't they then be counted twice?  Once when applying for the 173 then again when applying for the 143.  Can anyone out there clarify this for us please?

I think this has come up in the past on the main thread and the general consensus was that the 173s were counted as a place initially (but not when the upgrade to 143 is granted). Ether way you still get approximately the same total of places at the yearend.

[Biggsy]

I've created a more detailed report (143's only) using the same data. It shows the number lodged each day and a cumulative total so you can see how many are in the queue ahead of you.  Obviously this will change every time a more recent currently processing date pops up so I will update and upload a new version as and when I can.  Let me know if you see any typo's or errors.

CPV 143 Lodged Date Detailed Report.pdf

[Bigtrev]

8 hours ago, Biggsy said:

I've created a more detailed report (143's only) using the same data. It shows the number lodged each day and a cumulative total so you can see how many are in the queue ahead of you.  Obviously this will change every time a more recent currently processing date pops up so I will update and upload a new version as and when I can.  Let me know if you see any typo's or errors.

CPV 143 Lodged Date Detailed Report.pdf

Thanks great info. We are March 3rd 2016 so fingers crossed.

[MillieB]

Thanks so much for your time and effort producing this list.  I was getting excited when the queue seemed to be moving quickly recently .  Now looking at the queue ahead of us it looks like another 5 1/2 years.  My husband and I will continue to look forward to our annual trips to WA and keep dreaming we will be there permanently in a few years.  

[LindaH27]

15 hours ago, Biggsy said:

I've created a more detailed report (143's only) using the same data. It shows the number lodged each day and a cumulative total so you can see how many are in the queue ahead of you.  Obviously this will change every time a more recent currently processing date pops up so I will update and upload a new version as and when I can.  Let me know if you see any typo's or errors.

CPV 143 Lodged Date Detailed Report.pdf

Huge thanks for all the  hard work! 

I do have one query though - is the queue actually bigger as the contributory parent queue is made up of 173, 143, 864 and 143 pathway applicants (who will move more quickly as there is a dedicated quota every year for these) 

I’m not being pessimistic,  I just want to have a more realistic view of when I’m lucky enough to reach the processing stage!!  

When my daughter first made enquiries around January 2015 the agent said there was an 18 month wait list!!! As I wasn’t yet in a position to move even after that time we didn’t apply till later thinking we still had the same wait. We really didn’t think the queue would stretch out so much - in retrospect (bad I know!) we should have applied then and I would have had my visa by now. 

So I'm sure you can understand why I’d like a more realistic version of the queue!! 

[sub7er]

any applicant(visa 143) from Jan 16 who have been requested for further docs yet?

[Greece]

4 hours ago, LindaH27 said:

Huge thanks for all the  hard work! 

I do have one query though - is the queue actually bigger as the contributory parent queue is made up of 173, 143, 864 and 143 pathway applicants (who will move more quickly as there is a dedicated quota every year for these) 

I’m not being pessimistic,  I just want to have a more realistic view of when I’m lucky enough to reach the processing stage!!  

When my daughter first made enquiries around January 2015 the agent said there was an 18 month wait list!!! As I wasn’t yet in a position to move even after that time we didn’t apply till later thinking we still had the same wait. We really didn’t think the queue would stretch out so much - in retrospect (bad I know!) we should have applied then and I would have had my visa by now. 

So I'm sure you can understand why I’d like a more realistic version of the queue!! 

It looks like realistic queue. In your case, still waiting could go from 3 to 4 years unless cap is increased next year.