Jump to content
simmo

The (all new) Brexit Thread

Recommended Posts

10 hours ago, simmo said:

So (playing devils advocate) it's a commercial dicision?

For most of those who voted to remain it was a commercial decision. For most of those who voted to leave it wasn't.

  • Like 3
  • Congratulations 1

Chartered Accountant (England & Wales); Registered Tax Agent & Fellow of The Tax Institute (Australia)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, newjez said:

Great. Pin pong brexit voters.

So we have decades of moaning to look forward to?

You most certainly do.

  • Like 1

Chartered Accountant (England & Wales); Registered Tax Agent & Fellow of The Tax Institute (Australia)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, FirstWorldProblems said:

and talk about cutting off our nose to spite our faces.

We need immigration like never before.

Organically, we are declining as a population.  Long gone are the days of 2.4 children per family, we're now down at 1.7 and that is a huge problem.

We have an ageing population that successive govenment have failed to plan for economically.  The state pension scheme is unsustainable - it simply cannot afford the higher numbers of people who are living longer so retirement age has to be pushed up. And as we live longer, we tend to suffer from multiple, non-life threatening conditions that adds massive strain on the NHS. On average a person in their 70's costs the NHS 3 times more per year than someone in their 40's. By age 80 it's 4 times more.

So we now need far, far more tax money than we used to in order to pay for more people, who are living longer and costing more per year to maintain.

But we are 'creating' less tax payers (1.7 per family) so our organic pool of people to pay into the fund is shrinking.

There's no fixing that quickly, so we need to import tax payers from other countries to try and keep the whole house of cards from tumbling over.

The irony that the very people who are more likely to need the public purse to sustain their retirement are those who want to prevent immigrants coming in to pay for it is....well it's astounding.

 

To get tax from people you need them in jobs, not rolling up with no qualifications, getting benefits and then working in the black economy, usually run by people of the same nationality and sending money back to their home country.

 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, FirstWorldProblems said:

I suppose I am a hopeless optimist.  I'd like to think that if we can talk things through without resorting to insults and tribalism, that we can move closer to common ground.  If we can do that, we might be able to limit the worst of the impacts and try to make it successful.

Funny, you don't come across as an optimist.

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Paul1Perth said:

To get tax from people you need them in jobs, not rolling up with no qualifications, getting benefits and then working in the black economy, usually run by people of the same nationality and sending money back to their home country.

 

If we're talking about the UK, that's not the kind of immigration Brexit was expected to stop.  After all, how could it? Brexit will only stop legal EU citizens from entering the UK.  It won't do a thing to stop the illegals.  

When I was in Southampton, Brexiteers wanted to stop the flood of Eastern European immigrants.  They are all EU citizens, so without Brexit, the UK had no right to refuse them entry.  Brexiteers wanted them out, not because they had no qualifications, but because they were well-qualified enough to take British jobs.   It seemed as though every builder, carpenter and plumber in England was Polish!   In Southampton, I could spot a Pole because they were always well-dressed with well-behaved children.  They weren't the ones queuing for the dole - they all seemed like hard-working folk.  

Edited by Marisawright
  • Like 4

Scot by birth, emigrated 1985 | Aussie husband applied UK spouse visa Jan 2015, granted March 2015, moved to UK May 2015 | Returned to Oz June 2016

"The stranger who comes home does not make himself at home but makes home itself strange." -- Rainer Maria Rilke

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, FirstWorldProblems said:

And what are the tangible benefits that brings?

This thread is 705 pages long dyor.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Marisawright said:

If we're talking about the UK, that's not the kind of immigration Brexit was expected to stop.  After all, how could it? Brexit will only stop legal EU citizens from entering the UK.  It won't do a thing to stop the illegals.  

When I was in Southampton, Brexiteers wanted to stop the flood of Eastern European immigrants.  They are all EU citizens, so without Brexit, the UK had no right to refuse them entry.  Brexiteers wanted them out, not because they had no qualifications, but because they were well-qualified enough to take British jobs.   It seemed as though every builder, carpenter and plumber in England was Polish!   In Southampton, I could spot a Pole because they were always well-dressed with well-behaved children.  They weren't the ones queuing for the dole - they all seemed like hard-working folk.  

Wow! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Paul1Perth said:

To get tax from people you need them in jobs, not rolling up with no qualifications, getting benefits and then working in the black economy, usually run by people of the same nationality and sending money back to their home country.

 

I'll let my Hungarian cancer surgeon know that next time I see him Paul.

In fact, I'll let you know that. You're an immigrant aren't you? Or did you forget?

  • Like 1

Nearly there! Don't drop the ball now guys! Vaccines are weeks away. Stay safe!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, simmo said:

How much immigration contributes to the UK economy.

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/key-topics/economics

Claims are all cited for transparency and scrutiny.

So, are you saying that all the posters who immigrated to Australia have contributed very little to Australia? I think some may beg to differ. Or are you saying immigration to Australia is good, whereas immigration to England is bad?

  • Like 1

Nearly there! Don't drop the ball now guys! Vaccines are weeks away. Stay safe!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Paul1Perth said:

Funny, you don't come across as an optimist.

 

If the glass is half full or half empty it's easy.

If the glass has come from Boris and has a dribble of something that may not be drinkable in the bottom, it's harder.

There are some sound economic reasons for leaving the EU. But if the method of leaving cancels these out for thirty years, you lose the economic argument.

The other arguments are sound too. It is true that the benefits of being a member of the EU were not evenly distributed with the costs. This became much more apparent during austerity. The irony is that Osborne was effectively the designer of brexit, even though he was a staunch remainder.

But the assumption that a Tory or labour government will redress these issues fail very quickly. Labour because they bank those votes, and the Tories, because they know the last election was a one off and they won't get those votes again.

It is sad, but the people in isolated places in the UK who voted for brexit just removed their best interests. London will be fine.

Covid is another spanner. The industry hit by covid, (and for many industries covid will be a permanent hit, as it has accelerated digitalisation) is not the industry that will be hit by a bad brexit transition. You will have companies that do well out of brexit, but they won't survive both covid and the brexit transition to reap those benefits.

If people want to brexit, then that's fine. But why wouldn't you want the best brexit you can get. I just don't get those who are willing to trash the country. We know the cost of austerity, we know the cost of lockdown. The cost of a bad brexit is no different. It is measured in both lives lost and damaged.

Edited by newjez
  • Like 1

Nearly there! Don't drop the ball now guys! Vaccines are weeks away. Stay safe!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Marisawright said:

If we're talking about the UK, that's not the kind of immigration Brexit was expected to stop.  After all, how could it? Brexit will only stop legal EU citizens from entering the UK.  It won't do a thing to stop the illegals.  

When I was in Southampton, Brexiteers wanted to stop the flood of Eastern European immigrants.  They are all EU citizens, so without Brexit, the UK had no right to refuse them entry.  Brexiteers wanted them out, not because they had no qualifications, but because they were well-qualified enough to take British jobs.   It seemed as though every builder, carpenter and plumber in England was Polish!   In Southampton, I could spot a Pole because they were always well-dressed with well-behaved children.  They weren't the ones queuing for the dole - they all seemed like hard-working folk.  

Marisa,

You can't fight prejudice and ignorance with facts and logic!

  • Like 2

British  | Lived in Australia 2001-02 on 457   | Married Aussie wife & moved back to UK | Plan to return to Sydney 2026 when all kids have finished school

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, bunbury61 said:

Why is 1.7 children a problem ? .

So your argument is that we need more people ,so we can pay more taxes , to support our greatest fiscal burden - which is what ????

Social security takes up a nice percentage 

 Our cities are already overcrowded 

And what is the birth rate amongst the new arrivals?

Probably a touch more than 2.4 .

So pray tell us , what do you do, ,when the population reaches 70 or 80 million , and there isn't the houses , schools ,hospital places or jobs , to sustain the number ?- enlighten us .

Please don't say higher taxes - because the higher tax payers will just leave the country , if there is a hint that taxes will be increased - remember the early 70s ? - I do 

During the current covid crisis , the London mayor is now saying 1000s are about to be evicted from rented properties ,because they cannot afford the rents , due to job losses .

What is your answer - add another few million to the population - crazy 

Well, we could encourage all the old people to go and live in Spain. Oh damn. Possibly Australia? India? Africa? South East Asia? We will get them to look after them...so, rather than bring the immigrants to us, we take the old people to the immigrants. We just need agreement with the countries and a tax incentive for them to move.


Nearly there! Don't drop the ball now guys! Vaccines are weeks away. Stay safe!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Ken said:

You most certainly do.

Well, as global warming will improve the weather, I guess the poms will need something else to moan about.


Nearly there! Don't drop the ball now guys! Vaccines are weeks away. Stay safe!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, simmo said:

How much immigration contributes to the UK economy.

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/key-topics/economics

Claims are all cited for transparency and scrutiny.

This is your source of truth?  The organisation who had to retract their own paper because it was a "stark misapprehension" and was "simply wrong"?

Those quotes by the way are from one of the authors after they retracted their nonsense claims that immigration cost the economy hundreds of billions over 20 years.   They admitted they simply ignored that fact (hint: real facts have actual evidence) that migrants contribute more in taxes than they consume in public benefits or services.

Genuine research organisations (as opposed to bile spouting bullshit machines) such as Universitry College London undertook an actual study and found that migrants have made a substantial contribution to the economy.

It's really not hard to find a balanced, subjective source of information and however much you might dislike foreigners, you need them to prop up the public pension and keep the NHS going.  Speaking of which, the government just put aside this week £25m to fund a recruitment drive to attract overseas workers into the NHS

 

Edit: apologies it's £28.8m not £25m

Edited by FirstWorldProblems
  • Like 3

British  | Lived in Australia 2001-02 on 457   | Married Aussie wife & moved back to UK | Plan to return to Sydney 2026 when all kids have finished school

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, FirstWorldProblems said:

Marisa,

You can't fight prejudice and ignorance with facts and logic!

Quote

 In Southampton, I could spot a Pole because they were always well-dressed with well-behaved children.  They weren't the ones queuing for the dole - they all seemed like hard-working folk.  

facts and logic 🤣

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, simmo said:

This thread is 705 pages long dyor.

I think we deserve to be informed as to what benefits the brexiteers expect to gain from leaving the EU  without a deal and on bad terms.

The remainers have very clear views about what they see the country losing from the whole brexit debacle, but, it seems that the the brexiteers have suddenly become coy about telling us what we will gain

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, simmo said:

How much immigration contributes to the UK economy.

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/key-t230pics/economics

Claims2300e all cited for transparency and scrutiny.

Meanwhile in the real academic world

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba

Migrants contribute more than £2300 extra to the UK economy

Another more balanced view

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba

 But of course anybody can do a piece that selectively uses facts that fit their obsession

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the real analysis and report https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba

It was commissioned by the Govt in 2016 prior to Brexit.

- The average UK-based migrant from Europe contributed approximately £2,300 more to UK public finances in 2016/17 than the average UK adult. In comparison, each UK born adult contributed £70 less than the average, and each non-European migrant contributed over £800 less than the average.

- The average European migrant arriving in the UK in 2016 will contribute £78,000 more than they take out in public services and benefits over their time spent in the UK (assuming a balanced national budget), and the average non-European migrant will make a positive net contribution of £28,000 while living here. By comparison, the average UK citizen’s net lifetime contribution in this scenario is zero.

- Taken together, this means that the migrants who arrived in 2016 will make a total net positive contribution of £26.9 billion to the UK’s public finances over the entirety of their stay. The value of this to the UK’s public finances is equivalent to putting approximately 5p on income tax rates (across all marginal rate bands) in that year.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, s713 said:

Here's the real analysis and report https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba

It was commissioned by the Govt in 2016 prior to Brexit.

- The average UK-based migrant from Europe contributed approximately £2,300 more to UK public finances in 2016/17 than the average UK adult. In comparison, each UK born adult contributed £70 less than the average, and each non-European migrant contributed over £800 less than the average.

- The average European migrant arriving in the UK in 2016 will contribute £78,000 more than they take out in public services and benefits over their time spent in the UK (assuming a balanced national budget), and the average non-European migrant will make a positive net contribution of £28,000 while living here. By comparison, the average UK citizen’s net lifetime contribution in this scenario is zero.

- Taken together, this means that the migrants who arrived in 2016 will make a total net positive contribution of £26.9 billion to the UK’s public finances over the entirety of their stay. The value of this to the UK’s public finances is equivalent to putting approximately 5p on income tax rates (across all marginal rate bands) in that year.

Obviously, European migrants taking the jobs that would otherwise go to British people will pay tax and the British Citizens may end up on welfare.

I don't see this as positive and is mostly why the British people voted as they did in the referendum.

  • Like 1

I want it all, and I want it now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, FirstWorldProblems said:

Marisa,

You can't fight prejudice and ignorance with facts and logic!

The area we lived in had a huge influx of polish immigrants, they opened their own shops and posted signs stating “Polish only “

but would sell alcohol to under age , police had shop shut in the end . There was a group that would drink vodka at end of public footpath near our home and  would dump their empties there , at least 10-15 bottles per week. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BacktoDemocracy said:

Meanwhile in the real academic world

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba

Migrants contribute more than £2300 extra to the UK economy

Another more balanced view

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba

 But of course anybody can do a piece that selectively uses facts that fit their obsession

read the report OVERALL 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Rallyman said:

The area we lived in had a huge influx of polish immigrants, they opened their own shops and posted signs stating “Polish only “

but would sell alcohol to under age , police had shop shut in the end . There was a group that would drink vodka at end of public footpath near our home and  would dump their empties there , at least 10-15 bottles per week. 

I bet they were well dress though and had well behaved children...😂

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think most of this needs to be under "stop the boats"

One last point.  None of those going on about the economics seem to care about the social impact on mass population growth. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×