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simmo

The (all new) Brexit Thread

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1 hour ago, Gbye grey sky said:

The painful reality is that when push came to shove many of the most ardent Brexiteers in Parliament voted against a deal that would result in Britain leaving the EU.

Can anyone - on the Leave side of the fence - explain to me how the 2016 referendum has any validity given that Leave clearly does not mean Leave?

In my opinion it was never simply about leaving the EU, it has always been about power, a bunch of numpties who had nothing to trade with to get power any other way, they have been in the game of gaining power on the back of nothing.

The parallels with the Nazi's is there for all to see.

 

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The referendum should never have been black-or-white. And the referendum should never have happened until some significant analysis had been presented about what the alternatives (>2) meant.

There's no viable course of action now other than to extend for a period of time that allows a vote to be put back to the public. A vote that contains multiple leave options and a single remain option. Parliament can't decide so the public should.

The outcome is what we take back to the EU.

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7 hours ago, Gbye grey sky said:

The painful reality is that when push came to shove many of the most ardent Brexiteers in Parliament voted against a deal that would result in Britain leaving the EU.

Can anyone - on the Leave side of the fence - explain to me how the 2016 referendum has any validity given that Leave clearly does not mean Leave?

I am assuming the lack of response means that there is an acceptance now that the referendum was invalid.


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3 hours ago, s713 said:

The referendum should never have been black-or-white. And the referendum should never have happened until some significant analysis had been presented about what the alternatives (>2) meant.

There's no viable course of action now other than to extend for a period of time that allows a vote to be put back to the public. A vote that contains multiple leave options and a single remain option. Parliament can't decide so the public should.

The outcome is what we take back to the EU.

The viable course of action would be leave with no deal and ignore the claims for the divorce settlement.

It would then force everyone, business owners, CEO's and all the other people moaning and groaning to actually get on with business in the post EU. It's got to happen surely😠

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10 minutes ago, Paul1Perth said:

The viable course of action would be leave with no deal and ignore the claims for the divorce settlement.

It would then force everyone, business owners, CEO's and all the other people moaning and groaning to actually get on with business in the post EU. It's got to happen surely😠

So you are expecting a majority vote tomorrow in Parliament in favour of leaving without a deal?

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24 minutes ago, Gbye grey sky said:

I am assuming the lack of response means that there is an acceptance now that the referendum was invalid.

Not at all. People voted to leave the EU, not to 'sort of' leave it, or 'leave it a little bit', which is all that May's proposed deal does.

I also think that a no-deal exit is the only real way forward. I'm sure it would have pretty severe economic consequences in the short (and maybe medium) term, but long term it might actually be a good thing. 

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20 minutes ago, Gbye grey sky said:

So you are expecting a majority vote tomorrow in Parliament in favour of leaving without a deal?

Unfortunately no. That's what should happen and the longer it gets delayed the more crap gets thrown around to scare people and let the moaners keep sitting on their hands. They can't keep putting it in the too hard basket for ever.

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19 minutes ago, mxh said:

Not at all. People voted to leave the EU, not to 'sort of' leave it, or 'leave it a little bit', which is all that May's proposed deal does.

I also think that a no-deal exit is the only real way forward. I'm sure it would have pretty severe economic consequences in the short (and maybe medium) term, but long term it might actually be a good thing. 

It may not have any bad economic consequences though. That's what the EU is afraid of and that's why they are making it so hard.

If the UK gets out with no deal and a lot of the bad predictions don't happen then the likes of Spain, Italy, Greece and maybe even France and Germany populace my start thinking a bit differently.

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38 minutes ago, Paul1Perth said:

It may not have any bad economic consequences though

 

You may be right.

However systems / procedures / agreements etc have developed and evolved over a period of several decades, so I can't really see how having to change these will not come with some cost. And I doubt that there'll be much benefit in the short term - any benefit that does arise will surely take a while to materialise.

But I'm mindful that it's very easy for me, sat in my Australian office, to suggest that the UK should just 'go for it', as I won't be on the receiving end of whatever might happen. Not sure if I'd be quite so confident if I was living and working there.

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1 hour ago, mxh said:

I'm sure it would have pretty severe economic consequences in the short (and maybe medium) term, but long term it might actually be a good thing. 

I'm glad you're not my bank manager.

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1 hour ago, mxh said:

Not at all. People voted to leave the EU, not to 'sort of' leave it, or 'leave it a little bit', which is all that May's proposed deal does.

I also think that a no-deal exit is the only real way forward. I'm sure it would have pretty severe economic consequences in the short (and maybe medium) term, but long term it might actually be a good thing. 

But many who campaigned to leave (such as Gove and Fox) voted for the deal to leave the EU negotiated by May.  It is almost as if those who campaigned to leave had a different idea about what leave meant than you do.  Surely not?

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1 hour ago, Paul1Perth said:

It may not have any bad economic consequences though. That's what the EU is afraid of and that's why they are making it so hard.

If the UK gets out with no deal and a lot of the bad predictions don't happen then the likes of Spain, Italy, Greece and maybe even France and Germany populace my start thinking a bit differently.

The EU are concerned because they have functioning brains.  UK based businesses are the ones that are truly afraid because they know what the implications to them are.

Those with cognitive dissonance and those who exhibit the Dunning-Kruger effect are of course very confident that all will be well.  But in the unlikely event (in their view) that the economy tanks and they are thrown out of work, well then it will all have been the EUs fault wouldn’t it.  😜

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The EU are concerned because they have functioning brains.  UK based businesses are the ones that are truly afraid because they know what the implications to them are.
Those with cognitive dissonance and those who exhibit the Dunning-Kruger effect are of course very confident that all will be well.  But in the unlikely event (in their view) that the economy tanks and they are thrown out of work, well then it will all have been the EUs fault wouldn’t it.  



Yes - more so, it would have been the EU’s fault for actually existing, and us having to now have costs to extricate ourselves from them. How very dare they!

Also it’ll be businesses fault for not just thinking about the implications of the cost of doing business in Britain or the EU, but also for having thunk at all.
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3 hours ago, mxh said:

Not at all. People voted to leave the EU, not to 'sort of' leave it, or 'leave it a little bit', which is all that May's proposed deal does.

I also think that a no-deal exit is the only real way forward. I'm sure it would have pretty severe economic consequences in the short (and maybe medium) term, but long term it might actually be a good thing. 

How long before the possible advantages outway the damage done.

Bearing in mind that the world hasn't recovered from the GFC yet, and for Britain, no deal will have similar consequences?

Around 2050 maybe? Do you really think that is a viable option when they are much safer options to pursue?

Do you really think an MP that unleashes economic carnage on their electorate will be re elected, and do you not think they don't know that? The people have short memories. They only see the now.

There is no chance no deal will get passed.

I would love to see it from an educational perspective. But the only way we get no deal is if the EU refuse an extension, or the UK refuse the humiliation of the terms.

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1 minute ago, newjez said:

How long before the possible advantages outway the damage done.

Bearing in mind that the world hasn't recovered from the GFC yet, and for Britain, no deal will have similar consequences?

Around 2050 maybe? Do you really think that is a viable option when they are much safer options to pursue?

Do you really think an MP that unleashes economic carnage on their electorate will be re elected, and do you not think they don't know that? The people have short memories. They only see the now.

There is no chance no deal will get passed.

I would love to see it from an educational perspective. But the only way we get no deal is if the EU refuse an extension, or the UK refuse the humiliation of the terms.

Or if we get an extension but the clock on that extension ticks down and we are still where we are now.

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How long before the possible advantages outway the damage done.
Bearing in mind that the world hasn't recovered from the GFC yet, and for Britain, no deal will have similar consequences?
Around 2050 maybe? Do you really think that is a viable option when they are much safer options to pursue?
Do you really think an MP that unleashes economic carnage on their electorate will be re elected, and do you not think they don't know that? The people have short memories. They only see the now.
There is no chance no deal will get passed.
I would love to see it from an educational perspective. But the only way we get no deal is if the EU refuse an extension, or the UK refuse the humiliation of the terms.


Your worst case scenario is possible, because the EU will not accept ‘more time for endless waffles and tail chasing’ and we have the Tory ERG’s stance meaning anything less is humiliation for the UK.

From a helicopter view, a transition stage TMs deal means more time to get things right over a transition but it’s as if we have a bunch of technocrats who are hung up on the what-ifs. Analysis paralysis
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I am beginning to really like Theresa May.  She is a plucky lady surrounded by a bunch of self serving jackals.

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5 hours ago, mxh said:

Not at all. People voted to leave the EU, not to 'sort of' leave it, or 'leave it a little bit', which is all that May's proposed deal does.

I also think that a no-deal exit is the only real way forward. I'm sure it would have pretty severe economic consequences in the short (and maybe medium) term, but long term it might actually be a good thing. 

Some people voted leave not a significant majority.

Certainly not the people of Scotland and more importantingly NI who don't want a return to the bad old days.

They are being bounced into a leaving a union they want to be in (70% + in NI in a recent poll).

The politicans can't agree so it should go back to the people, with a single transferable vote on tbe following options;

Remain

Leave with May's deal

Leave with No deal

Each part of the UK should decide it's own fate (i.e. if Scotland or NI or Wales vote Remain - they can remain).

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1 minute ago, Collie said:

Some people voted leave not a significant majority.

Certainly not the people of Scotland and more importantingly NI who don't want a return to the bad old days.

They are being bounced into a leaving a union they want to be in (70% + in NI in a recent poll).

The politicans can't agree so it should go back to the people, with a single transferable vote on tbe following options;

Remain

Leave with May's deal

Leave with No deal

Each part of the UK should decide it's own fate (i.e. if Scotland or NI or Wales vote Remain - they can remain).

The last part cannot work as each would need to leave the Union first which has to be a wholly separate question.


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27 minutes ago, starlight7 said:

I am beginning to really like Theresa May.  She is a plucky lady surrounded by a bunch of self serving jackals.

She is more like someone who has painted herself into a corner and is now being pelted with rotten fruit. True, she takes the fruit well. But if she had had a little foresight rather than the tunnel vision she is famous for, she wouldn't be in this situation. I have no respect for her as a leader. As a doer yes, but leaders need vision.

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1 hour ago, ssiri said:

 


Your worst case scenario is possible, because the EU will not accept ‘more time for endless waffles and tail chasing’ and we have the Tory ERG’s stance meaning anything less is humiliation for the UK.

From a helicopter view, a transition stage TMs deal means more time to get things right over a transition but it’s as if we have a bunch of technocrats who are hung up on the what-ifs. Analysis paralysis

 

Technically, if we reject no deal, and we reject an extension or the EU do, doesn't that mean they need to revolt article 50 by default? Surely logic dictates?

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29 minutes ago, Gbye grey sky said:

The last part cannot work as each would need to leave the Union first which has to be a wholly separate question.

Why not save on another referendum. Two birds with one stone. After all, hasn't this always been about breaking up the union? To have an independent powerhouse called England? I'm sure some had that vision.

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So, if there's another referendum and people vote to stay - how is that more valid than the leave result and will it be a best of 3 to see who the eventual winners are? Plus, if there's another referendum - do you think this might lead to protests/confrontations it's really quite emotive

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I just want PIO to be a happy place where people are nice to each other and unicorns poop rainbows

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The last part cannot work as each would need to leave the Union first which has to be a wholly separate question.



Yes. But this is what potentially is the next reality.The views aren’t aligned across the nations that make up the UK on this. Another reason why it was a fools errand to begin with

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6 hours ago, mxh said:

Not at all. People voted to leave the EU, not to 'sort of' leave it, or 'leave it a little bit', which is all that May's proposed deal does.

I also think that a no-deal exit is the only real way forward. I'm sure it would have pretty severe economic consequences in the short (and maybe medium) term, but long term it might actually be a good thing. 

Are you in the UK, " pretty severe economic consequences" is an understatement, the economy would be back to where it was in 1972, completely dysfunctional, another devaluation of the pound, emergency loans and unemployment up at 10%.

Nice little earner, trebles all round lads.

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