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simmo

The (all new) Brexit Thread

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14 hours ago, newjez said:

If someone asked if you were European, what would your answer be?

It's not hard. Can we move on?

Australian😊

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Just now, newjez said:

@simmo deal or no deal? Are you feeling lucky punk? Well are you?

haven't really read through the small print yet but based on the headlines i'm leaning to a deal as it would just be enough to deliver the greater goal over time and also give business something to get their teeth into. 

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I have a feeling it won't be voted through.

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exactly my thoughts.

MAY-HAT.png?resize=540%2C533&ssl=1

Theresa May went to Strasbourg and pulled a unilateral declaration rabbit out of her hat. Stage-managed? Perhaps. At least Juncker was on stage with her and agreed that this was the last double act in which he would be appearing with her. You got the sense that this really is finally the end of the show. If it doesn’t work the curtain will come up on either a Second Referendum farce, Article Extension pantomime or General Election tragi-comedy…

May’s statement is here, the EU’s here – review them yourself. We await Cox’s legal review and the decision of the DUP critics tomorrow. If the DUP give it the thumbs up most Tory rebels will follow suit. The ERG’s lawyers are unlikely to be enthusiastic – that is already priced in. Guido suspects those Tory MPs that want to avoid the hell that will follow a delay to Brexit – for whatever reason – will choose to believe the rabbit is real. Some will reluctantly accept the possibility of the existence of the rabbit for fear of the Brexit terms being further diluted by the remainers in parliament, or worse still derailed altogether. If however the DUP reject it and there is no further last minute revision forthcoming – perhaps after a third vote – the show comes to an end with the current line-up. May will come under intense pressure to magically disappear from the stage…

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All the talk about the backstop was a clever diversionary tactic to distract everyone from a pretty lousy deal overall.  That said I hope it passes now so they can all move on to the next phase.

If it doesn’t then surely May won’t last to the weekend.


Timeline: 309/100 Sent 7/8/13, Money Taken 9/8/13, CO appointed 3/9/13. Med 3/12/13. Police check 4/12/13. VISA GRANTED 8/4/14, Subclass100. Recce August 2014. Arrived 30 July 2015.

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Gbye grey sky said:

All the talk about the backstop was a clever diversionary tactic to distract everyone from a pretty lousy deal overall.  That said I hope it passes now so they can all move on to the next phase.

If it doesn’t then surely May won’t last to the weekend.

What don't you like about the deal? I'm not a fan either, but I think it's the best they could expect within her red lines. If people really want brexit they should back the deal. There is a strong risk of no brexit without it. If it fails, the next two votes will be very interesting. If it passed it still needs to be passed by the EU.

Edited by newjez
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I can't stand this thread going for another 2 years so Brexit better happen in 2 weeks.

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I want it all, and I want it now.

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1 hour ago, Parley said:

I can't stand this thread going for another 2 years so Brexit better happen in 2 weeks.

This just takes the UK into a transitional period to December 2020 during which time both sides will need to negotiate future arrangements.  So this is not the end, it could be the end of the beginning though.

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Timeline: 309/100 Sent 7/8/13, Money Taken 9/8/13, CO appointed 3/9/13. Med 3/12/13. Police check 4/12/13. VISA GRANTED 8/4/14, Subclass100. Recce August 2014. Arrived 30 July 2015.

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8 hours ago, Rallyman said:

Sorry didn’t realise that you are the grammar police , you have never miss typed anything , you have never made a mistake or predictive text spelt something incorrect , that’s the best rebuttal you can come up with. Sad sad life mate get out and enjoy yourself , 

Only a bit of banter, mate.

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1 hour ago, newjez said:

What don't you like about the deal? I'm not a fan either, but I think it's the best they could expect within her red lines. If people really want brexit they should back the deal. There is a strong risk of no brexit without it. If it fails, the next two votes will be very interesting. If it passed it still needs to be passed by the EU.

I agree it is the best option given the red lines.

Being outside of both the single market and customs union is disadvantageous.  The UK will be paying both a large exit cost and ongoing membership for the next 2 years with no say at all in the rules.  And the uncertainties of the future relationship will not be resolved until at least 2021.


Timeline: 309/100 Sent 7/8/13, Money Taken 9/8/13, CO appointed 3/9/13. Med 3/12/13. Police check 4/12/13. VISA GRANTED 8/4/14, Subclass100. Recce August 2014. Arrived 30 July 2015.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Gbye grey sky said:

This just takes the UK into a transitional period to December 2020 during which time both sides will need to negotiate future arrangements.  So this is not the end, it could be the end of the beginning though.

Sounds a bit like Chamberlain circa 1938 and his infamous bit of paper.

Mind you it bought Chamberlain 15 months or so.

Mrs May might avoid the axe for a few months if she can get this deal through as well

But we all know how 1938 ended up don't we, a nationalist and a populist in charge in both places

Edited by BacktoDemocracy
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Doesn't anyone say they are from Australasia.

I think I'll start telling everyone I'm from Oceania. That sounds even better.


I want it all, and I want it now.

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26 minutes ago, Parley said:

Doesn't anyone say they are from Australasia.

I think I'll start telling everyone I'm from Oceania. That sounds even better.

Sounds kind of blue, a bit sort of Jonathan Swift.

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38 minutes ago, Parley said:

Doesn't anyone say they are from Australasia.

I think I'll start telling everyone I'm from Oceania. That sounds even better.

That might confuse them if they're from FIFA. They think New Zealand is in Oceania but Australia is in Asia.

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Chartered Accountant (England & Wales); Registered Tax Agent & Fellow of The Tax Institute (Australia)

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5 hours ago, simmo said:

exactly my thoughts.

MAY-HAT.png?resize=540%2C533&ssl=1

Theresa May went to Strasbourg and pulled a unilateral declaration rabbit out of her hat. Stage-managed? Perhaps. At least Juncker was on stage with her and agreed that this was the last double act in which he would be appearing with her. You got the sense that this really is finally the end of the show. If it doesn’t work the curtain will come up on either a Second Referendum farce, Article Extension pantomime or General Election tragi-comedy…

May’s statement is here, the EU’s here – review them yourself. We await Cox’s legal review and the decision of the DUP critics tomorrow. If the DUP give it the thumbs up most Tory rebels will follow suit. The ERG’s lawyers are unlikely to be enthusiastic – that is already priced in. Guido suspects those Tory MPs that want to avoid the hell that will follow a delay to Brexit – for whatever reason – will choose to believe the rabbit is real. Some will reluctantly accept the possibility of the existence of the rabbit for fear of the Brexit terms being further diluted by the remainers in parliament, or worse still derailed altogether. If however the DUP reject it and there is no further last minute revision forthcoming – perhaps after a third vote – the show comes to an end with the current line-up. May will come under intense pressure to magically disappear from the stage…

the rabbit should be brown

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2 hours ago, newjez said:

the rabbit should be brown

... and rather smelly ...

Looking like Mays deal is a turd - even with glitter and air freshner. 

So, down to no deal or no brexit. God this is exciting. It's like love island!

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22 minutes ago, newjez said:

... and rather smelly ...

Looking like Mays deal is a turd - even with glitter and air freshner. 

So, down to no deal or no brexit. God this is exciting. It's like love island!

I think it's a gift and she has done quite well tbh.

I accept that it's largely the same as in Jan and will probably be defeated.

I can see Parliment voting for an extension (only a request btw, the EU have to agree and are increasingly growing tired with the UK).

All comes back to the fact that the UK is divided and doesn't know what it wants.

No deal will hasten the break up of the UK ( certainly before the EU - ah the irony for the Brexiteers)

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1 hour ago, Collie said:

I think it's a gift and she has done quite well tbh.

I accept that it's largely the same as in Jan and will probably be defeated.

I can see Parliment voting for an extension (only a request btw, the EU have to agree and are increasingly growing tired with the UK).

All comes back to the fact that the UK is divided and doesn't know what it wants.

No deal will hasten the break up of the UK ( certainly before the EU - ah the irony for the Brexiteers)

£1.3 billion a month - with no rebate.

Another fine mess you've got us in Boris.

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Deal defeated again then.

So stand-by for ‘no-deal’ vote tomorrow.


Timeline: 309/100 Sent 7/8/13, Money Taken 9/8/13, CO appointed 3/9/13. Med 3/12/13. Police check 4/12/13. VISA GRANTED 8/4/14, Subclass100. Recce August 2014. Arrived 30 July 2015.

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The painful reality is that when push came to shove many of the most ardent Brexiteers in Parliament voted against a deal that would result in Britain leaving the EU.

Can anyone - on the Leave side of the fence - explain to me how the 2016 referendum has any validity given that Leave clearly does not mean Leave?

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Timeline: 309/100 Sent 7/8/13, Money Taken 9/8/13, CO appointed 3/9/13. Med 3/12/13. Police check 4/12/13. VISA GRANTED 8/4/14, Subclass100. Recce August 2014. Arrived 30 July 2015.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gbye grey sky said:

Deal defeated again then.

So stand-by for ‘no-deal’ vote tomorrow.

That will get slaughtered.

Then the extension. But the EU will want a plan. What will that plan B? Pun intended.

Edited by newjez
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That will get slaughtered.

Then the extension. But the EU will want a plan. What will that plan B? Pun intended.

 

 

I have no words at this point- will wait to see what tomorrow brings. It’s wide open in front of a cliff right now - indeed what is Plan B (and I don’t mean the group).

 

Especially since the EU have always said, come back if you have a viable Plan B. With this circus in Parliament any plan will be DOA

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