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simmo

The (all new) Brexit Thread

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Unemployment rate in member states of the European Union in June 2018 (seasonally adjusted)

Image result for unemployment in european countries 2018

Drinking rum before 11am does not make you an alcoholic, it makes you pirate..

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Image result for unemployment in european countries 2017


Drinking rum before 11am does not make you an alcoholic, it makes you pirate..

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26 minutes ago, Perthbum said:

Unemployment rate in member states of the European Union in June 2018 (seasonally adjusted)

Image result for unemployment in european countries 2018

What is their that you don't understand that individual govts in individual countries make economic policies for THEIR countries which determine how successful the economies are in the same way that the much vaunted UK GOVT  does here and do you realise that if YOU WORK ONE HOUR IN THE UK then you are considered to be EMPLOYED, other countries do not consider you employed until you have a proper job.

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33 minutes ago, Perthbum said:

Image result for unemployment in european countries 2017

Spain govt invested heavily in its tourist trade building hotels and villas which encouraged pop growth, Greece concentrated on tourism and paying huge pensions and benefits to its populace to stay in power, no diversification so along came a tsunami  from the GFC and they were f....d, just like the world was after 1926.

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3 hours ago, Perthbum said:

The truth is that most prominent  EU countries would vote out if a choice was given to the people, the small countries who get more than they put in would obviously vote to stay but the bigger players would be out if it was up to the people.

Prominent Polish politician Radoslaw Sikorski said the results of the Italian and German elections prove there is a huge anti-EU movement and the success of Brexit could lead to more countries voting to leave the EU.

Mr Sikorski, the former minister of national defence in Poland, was asked whether other EU countries will follow the same path as Britain if Brexit is a success.

He told students at the University of Greenwich: “Sure. I mean, we’ve just got a result in Italy where right-wing anti-EU parties have the majority of the vote.

 

“In Germany, an anti-EU party is gaining ground. You know, we assume that the centre will hold in Germany.”

If you read any of what he said none of it adds up to your opening statement, if you look up Sikorski he is an ardent supporter of the ideals of the EU,  yet again selective quoting of individual sentences taken out of context, completely worthless.

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3 hours ago, newjez said:

I do love it. These polls are ok, but the other polls aren't.

Try watching the yes minister episode on polling.

You really don't seem to understand how the Europeans like their EU. Yes, they have different visions of where they want it to go. But I really can't see anyone else leaving after the example we have given them. We are one of the most powerful members. If they do that to us, what would they do to them?

We have never understood the unifying thinking behind the EU,  we have always treated it as a economic exercise  and  nothing else and that is why our MP'S have always performed so badly and achieved so little.

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3 hours ago, simmo said:

No one expects the EU to give the UK anything that is not rightfully ours.  For example, the massive investments the UK has made to the Sat Nav systems, defence, medicine, interpol etc... We are not suggesting we cash out - just that we invest closer to home in the future.  

That's what you do when you join a partnership and what you do when you invest in a company expecting it to make a profit and when you leave a company there is often a non competition agreement preventing you from using their intellectual property or using your knowledge of how they work to set up in opposition to them, so why did we think we could just walk away and everything would just carry on as before but we would be able to snaffle the EU 's trade.

What a bunch of twonkers

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2 hours ago, Perthbum said:

Brexit will RUIN Germany as UK taxpayers stop funding EU coffers - say Germans

BREXIT is threatening EU funded projects in Germany as budgets could shrink after the UK stops budget contributions when it leaves the bloc in March 2019, it has been revealed.

EU projects in Northern Hesse are going to see a huge reduction of EU funds and the German Association of Cities, the German County Association and the German Association of Towns and Municipalities are calling for the funding period to be maintained even after 2020.

They argue: "Because of the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union, future budget cuts in the EU must be expected, which could mean that the available funds are significantly reduced, especially in economically more developed Member States.”

They signed a policy statement on cohesion policy which supports hundreds of thousands of projects in Europe to receive funding from the European Regional Development Fund and the Cohesion Fund.

 

Although it is rarely discussed in Brussels or Berlin, Germany is becoming increasingly concerned about losing UK funding and trade.

I assume that came from the AfD,  such a charming bunch of wonderful populist nationalists

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37274201

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2 hours ago, Perthbum said:

France would have voted to leave EU too if in UK's situation, French leader Macron says

  • When asked if France could take the same decision as the British people, Macron said: "Yeah, probably. Probably in a similar context, but our context was very different"
     
  • The French leader said that he hopes the ongoing Brexit negotiations will deliver a deep and special relationship with the U.K., but that any deal with the EU "will be by definition less deep than today"
Published 6:58 AM ET Mon, 22 Jan 2018  Updated 9:39 AM ET Mon, 22 Jan 2018CNBC.com
     
     
     
     
     
French President Emmanuel Macron on January 16, 2018 in Calais, France.
Sylvain Lefevre | Getty Images
French President Emmanuel Macron on January 16, 2018 in Calais, France.

France would likely have followed the U.K. and also voted to leave the European Union if the opportunity had presented itself, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview Sunday.

Macron said that, if the French people had been put in a similar situation and were asked to vote "yes or no" on EU membership, then they would probably have chosen to leave the bloc.

"Middle classes and working classes and especially the oldest in your country decided that the recent decades were not in their favor and that the adjustments made by both the EU and globalization… wasn't in their favor," Macron told the BBC about the Brexit vote.

 

When asked if France could take the same decision as the British people, Macron said: "Yeah, probably. Probably in a similar context, but our context was very different."

He said that the U.K. government had made a mistake in asking the British electorate "yes or no on a very complicated subject."

This is a bit desperate isn't it, constantly quoting stuff out of context and selectively, Macron himself qualifies his statements and agreements, everyone admits that if their countries were presented with such a poorly drafted binary choice in a referendum and if a bunch of rabble rousing right wing fantasists were allowed to lie to their populace supported by a press allowed to print lies then there was a strong possibility their countries might vote to leave, but and it is a big but, our countries have in place laws to prevent referendums and to prevent outright lies to be used in political campaigns or printed in our press.

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2 hours ago, BacktoDemocracy said:

That's what you do when you join a partnership and what you do when you invest in a company expecting it to make a profit and when you leave a company there is often a non competition agreement preventing you from using their intellectual property or using your knowledge of how they work to set up in opposition to them, so why did we think we could just walk away and everything would just carry on as before but we would be able to snaffle the EU 's trade.

What a bunch of twonkers

this is not communism.  Have you heard of dividends?

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4 hours ago, BacktoDemocracy said:

We have never understood the unifying thinking behind the EU,  we have always treated it as a economic exercise  and  nothing else and that is why our MP'S have always performed so badly and achieved so little.

To be fair most other countries would leave relatively easily.

It's only because we used the EU to let sinn fein and the dup both think they won, rather than actually solving the issue. As the EU tide goes out, it left everyone naked.

The EU have bent over backwards to allow us to leave, despite our arrogance. But they aren't going to hurt themselves to help us, and obviously if they can screw us for their benefit then they will. Why wouldn't they? We are now their competitors.

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5 hours ago, BacktoDemocracy said:

What is their that you don't understand that individual govts in individual countries make economic policies for THEIR countries which determine how successful the economies are in the same way that the much vaunted UK GOVT  does here and do you realise that if YOU WORK ONE HOUR IN THE UK then you are considered to be EMPLOYED, other countries do not consider you employed until you have a proper job.

Complete tosh they all include people no matter how many hours they work, please post a link when they only give figures on full time employmwnt.


Drinking rum before 11am does not make you an alcoholic, it makes you pirate..

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Forget Brexit, the EU may be on the brink of collapse

 

 

The Brexit debate is nothing if not insular. While the business, media and political elite in London obsess over the kind of future relationship the UK should have with Brussels, few seem to have noticed that the EU itself may soon collapse. If and when it does, the fall will be all the more shocking precisely because so many eyes have not been kept on the ball.

The stark truth is that since the financial crisis of 2008 eurozone leaders have tried and failed to put the single currency on a secure footing. President Macron’s attempt to promote a fiscal union is a recognition of this failure and an attempt to do something about it, but his plan has already been killed off by a combination of the German economic policy-making elite and the Italian voter. If it goes ahead at all now, it will be in largely insignificant form.

The attempt to build a banking union is meeting a similar fate. Its bail-in provisions for failing banks are not being consistently implemented and its fund for recapitalising failing banks is far too small. In Italy in particular, the political will does not exist to comply with is strictures. No progress has been made on a European Deposit Insurance Scheme either. And work to build a Capital Markets Union is painfully slow and is, in any case, the work of decades.

The common thread across all these stalled attempts at eurozone reform is a reluctance on the part of national authorities to pursue genuinely European solutions. What this means in practice is that if and when a new crisis comes, there will be no common European response. Individual eurozone countries will be largely left to fend for themselves while EU leaders, as in the last crisis, seek to make decisions largely on the hoof. The question now is for how long eurozone leaders can get away with it? And the answer is not, perhaps, for much longer.

A scan of the horizon suggests it is all too possible to identify the triggers for what could quickly become a eurozone and wider EU collapse. On the economic side one obvious path to crisis is via the onset of a new recession. Eurozone growth is already slowing, and the international environment is clouding badly.

Both a transatlantic trade war provoked by Trump, or a Chinese financial crisis on the back of spiralling public and private debt could cause massive and sudden damage to eurozone economies. A severe recession would in turn undermine the public finances in many already heavily indebted eurozone member states, raise their borrowing costs prohibitively, and wipe billions off the balance sheets of their banks, many of which have been heavy investors in bonds issued by their own governments. Amid falling asset values and a generalised increase in non-performing loans, many banks would be in trouble.

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They would once again need help from already strapped governments who would struggle to provide it. There is therefore a clear path from a recession to a new banking and sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone, raising the prospect of euro exits, contagion and an existential crisis for the single currency as a whole.

If a recession does not trigger a banking and sovereign debt crisis there is a non-negligible possibility that a new banking crisis could be the trigger for a recession. Globally, warnings from senior policy-makers over asset bubbles, unregulated shadow banking in Asia, and excessive risk-taking in global financial markets are rife.

If a further crisis emerges out of this morass, the opaque and complex lending arrangements that characterise the system will mean a generalised loss of confidence and a crunch in the availability of credit. Again, weak banks in the eurozone would be knocked over by both declining asset values and a lack of liquidity.

Italy is a particular worry. The Italian government could, in principle, attempt to deal with such a scenario with bail-ins but is unlikely to do so, since many Italian retail investors are heavily invested in bonds issued by Italian banks and would be massive losers. It would therefore have to attempt taxpayer-funded bail-outs.

Amid its already high debts it would quickly find it almost impossible to borrow. It could appeal to other eurozone member states for loans in return for years of austerity and structural reform but after two decades of little growth and with a population already voting in large numbers for eurosceptic parties, that path appears politically undeliverable. The alternative would be for Italy to leave the single currency and print its own money.

There is therefore a plausible path to a major euro exit, contagion to other parts of the eurozone, and an existential crisis for the euro buried in a new financial crisis, whether that crisis starts in Europe or somewhere else in the world. Politically, other paths to break-up exist too. A straightforward electoral breakthrough by eurosceptic forces that want to leave the European Union still cannot be ruled out in countries like Italy and France.

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Drinking rum before 11am does not make you an alcoholic, it makes you pirate..

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52 minutes ago, Perthbum said:

Forget Brexit, the EU may be on the brink of collapse

 

 

The Brexit debate is nothing if not insular. While the business, media and political elite in London obsess over the kind of future relationship the UK should have with Brussels, few seem to have noticed that the EU itself may soon collapse. If and when it does, the fall will be all the more shocking precisely because so many eyes have not been kept on the ball.

The stark truth is that since the financial crisis of 2008 eurozone leaders have tried and failed to put the single currency on a secure footing. President Macron’s attempt to promote a fiscal union is a recognition of this failure and an attempt to do something about it, but his plan has already been killed off by a combination of the German economic policy-making elite and the Italian voter. If it goes ahead at all now, it will be in largely insignificant form.

The attempt to build a banking union is meeting a similar fate. Its bail-in provisions for failing banks are not being consistently implemented and its fund for recapitalising failing banks is far too small. In Italy in particular, the political will does not exist to comply with is strictures. No progress has been made on a European Deposit Insurance Scheme either. And work to build a Capital Markets Union is painfully slow and is, in any case, the work of decades.

The common thread across all these stalled attempts at eurozone reform is a reluctance on the part of national authorities to pursue genuinely European solutions. What this means in practice is that if and when a new crisis comes, there will be no common European response. Individual eurozone countries will be largely left to fend for themselves while EU leaders, as in the last crisis, seek to make decisions largely on the hoof. The question now is for how long eurozone leaders can get away with it? And the answer is not, perhaps, for much longer.

A scan of the horizon suggests it is all too possible to identify the triggers for what could quickly become a eurozone and wider EU collapse. On the economic side one obvious path to crisis is via the onset of a new recession. Eurozone growth is already slowing, and the international environment is clouding badly.

Both a transatlantic trade war provoked by Trump, or a Chinese financial crisis on the back of spiralling public and private debt could cause massive and sudden damage to eurozone economies. A severe recession would in turn undermine the public finances in many already heavily indebted eurozone member states, raise their borrowing costs prohibitively, and wipe billions off the balance sheets of their banks, many of which have been heavy investors in bonds issued by their own governments. Amid falling asset values and a generalised increase in non-performing loans, many banks would be in trouble.

Get more from CapX

They would once again need help from already strapped governments who would struggle to provide it. There is therefore a clear path from a recession to a new banking and sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone, raising the prospect of euro exits, contagion and an existential crisis for the single currency as a whole.

If a recession does not trigger a banking and sovereign debt crisis there is a non-negligible possibility that a new banking crisis could be the trigger for a recession. Globally, warnings from senior policy-makers over asset bubbles, unregulated shadow banking in Asia, and excessive risk-taking in global financial markets are rife.

If a further crisis emerges out of this morass, the opaque and complex lending arrangements that characterise the system will mean a generalised loss of confidence and a crunch in the availability of credit. Again, weak banks in the eurozone would be knocked over by both declining asset values and a lack of liquidity.

Italy is a particular worry. The Italian government could, in principle, attempt to deal with such a scenario with bail-ins but is unlikely to do so, since many Italian retail investors are heavily invested in bonds issued by Italian banks and would be massive losers. It would therefore have to attempt taxpayer-funded bail-outs.

Amid its already high debts it would quickly find it almost impossible to borrow. It could appeal to other eurozone member states for loans in return for years of austerity and structural reform but after two decades of little growth and with a population already voting in large numbers for eurosceptic parties, that path appears politically undeliverable. The alternative would be for Italy to leave the single currency and print its own money.

There is therefore a plausible path to a major euro exit, contagion to other parts of the eurozone, and an existential crisis for the euro buried in a new financial crisis, whether that crisis starts in Europe or somewhere else in the world. Politically, other paths to break-up exist too. A straightforward electoral breakthrough by eurosceptic forces that want to leave the European Union still cannot be ruled out in countries like Italy and France.

Don’t know where you copy and pasted that from PB but I don’t disagree with any of it.  Another GFC is a very real possibility.


Timeline: 309/100 Sent 7/8/13, Money Taken 9/8/13, CO appointed 3/9/13. Med 3/12/13. Police check 4/12/13. VISA GRANTED 8/4/14, Subclass100. Recce August 2014. Arrived 30 July 2015.

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Been away for a week, anything happening with Brexit?

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Jeremy Corbyn on the EU  " A European bureaucracy totally unaccountable to anybody"

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14 minutes ago, amibovered said:

Been away for a week, anything happening with Brexit?

dead in the water mate.

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9 hours ago, Perthbum said:

France would have voted to leave EU too if in UK's situation, French leader Macron says

  • When asked if France could take the same decision as the British people, Macron said: "Yeah, probably. Probably in a similar context, but our context was very different"
     
  • The French leader said that he hopes the ongoing Brexit negotiations will deliver a deep and special relationship with the U.K., but that any deal with the EU "will be by definition less deep than today"
Published 6:58 AM ET Mon, 22 Jan 2018  Updated 9:39 AM ET Mon, 22 Jan 2018CNBC.com
     
     
     
     
     
French President Emmanuel Macron on January 16, 2018 in Calais, France.
Sylvain Lefevre | Getty Images
French President Emmanuel Macron on January 16, 2018 in Calais, France.

France would likely have followed the U.K. and also voted to leave the European Union if the opportunity had presented itself, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview Sunday.

Macron said that, if the French people had been put in a similar situation and were asked to vote "yes or no" on EU membership, then they would probably have chosen to leave the bloc.

"Middle classes and working classes and especially the oldest in your country decided that the recent decades were not in their favor and that the adjustments made by both the EU and globalization… wasn't in their favor," Macron told the BBC about the Brexit vote.

 

When asked if France could take the same decision as the British people, Macron said: "Yeah, probably. Probably in a similar context, but our context was very different."

He said that the U.K. government had made a mistake in asking the British electorate "yes or no on a very complicated subject."

Macron is right about this.  Ask a stupid question, and you get a stupid answer.

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Timeline: 309/100 Sent 7/8/13, Money Taken 9/8/13, CO appointed 3/9/13. Med 3/12/13. Police check 4/12/13. VISA GRANTED 8/4/14, Subclass100. Recce August 2014. Arrived 30 July 2015.

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3 hours ago, Perthbum said:

Forget Brexit, the EU may be on the brink of collapse

 

 

The Brexit debate is nothing if not insular. While the business, media and political elite in London obsess over the kind of future relationship the UK should have with Brussels, few seem to have noticed that the EU itself may soon collapse. If and when it does, the fall will be all the more shocking precisely because so many eyes have not been kept on the ball.

The stark truth is that since the financial crisis of 2008 eurozone leaders have tried and failed to put the single currency on a secure footing. President Macron’s attempt to promote a fiscal union is a recognition of this failure and an attempt to do something about it, but his plan has already been killed off by a combination of the German economic policy-making elite and the Italian voter. If it goes ahead at all now, it will be in largely insignificant form.

The attempt to build a banking union is meeting a similar fate. Its bail-in provisions for failing banks are not being consistently implemented and its fund for recapitalising failing banks is far too small. In Italy in particular, the political will does not exist to comply with is strictures. No progress has been made on a European Deposit Insurance Scheme either. And work to build a Capital Markets Union is painfully slow and is, in any case, the work of decades.

The common thread across all these stalled attempts at eurozone reform is a reluctance on the part of national authorities to pursue genuinely European solutions. What this means in practice is that if and when a new crisis comes, there will be no common European response. Individual eurozone countries will be largely left to fend for themselves while EU leaders, as in the last crisis, seek to make decisions largely on the hoof. The question now is for how long eurozone leaders can get away with it? And the answer is not, perhaps, for much longer.

A scan of the horizon suggests it is all too possible to identify the triggers for what could quickly become a eurozone and wider EU collapse. On the economic side one obvious path to crisis is via the onset of a new recession. Eurozone growth is already slowing, and the international environment is clouding badly.

Both a transatlantic trade war provoked by Trump, or a Chinese financial crisis on the back of spiralling public and private debt could cause massive and sudden damage to eurozone economies. A severe recession would in turn undermine the public finances in many already heavily indebted eurozone member states, raise their borrowing costs prohibitively, and wipe billions off the balance sheets of their banks, many of which have been heavy investors in bonds issued by their own governments. Amid falling asset values and a generalised increase in non-performing loans, many banks would be in trouble.

Get more from CapX

They would once again need help from already strapped governments who would struggle to provide it. There is therefore a clear path from a recession to a new banking and sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone, raising the prospect of euro exits, contagion and an existential crisis for the single currency as a whole.

If a recession does not trigger a banking and sovereign debt crisis there is a non-negligible possibility that a new banking crisis could be the trigger for a recession. Globally, warnings from senior policy-makers over asset bubbles, unregulated shadow banking in Asia, and excessive risk-taking in global financial markets are rife.

If a further crisis emerges out of this morass, the opaque and complex lending arrangements that characterise the system will mean a generalised loss of confidence and a crunch in the availability of credit. Again, weak banks in the eurozone would be knocked over by both declining asset values and a lack of liquidity.

Italy is a particular worry. The Italian government could, in principle, attempt to deal with such a scenario with bail-ins but is unlikely to do so, since many Italian retail investors are heavily invested in bonds issued by Italian banks and would be massive losers. It would therefore have to attempt taxpayer-funded bail-outs.

Amid its already high debts it would quickly find it almost impossible to borrow. It could appeal to other eurozone member states for loans in return for years of austerity and structural reform but after two decades of little growth and with a population already voting in large numbers for eurosceptic parties, that path appears politically undeliverable. The alternative would be for Italy to leave the single currency and print its own money.

There is therefore a plausible path to a major euro exit, contagion to other parts of the eurozone, and an existential crisis for the euro buried in a new financial crisis, whether that crisis starts in Europe or somewhere else in the world. Politically, other paths to break-up exist too. A straightforward electoral breakthrough by eurosceptic forces that want to leave the European Union still cannot be ruled out in countries like Italy and France.

Don't disagree. The GFC showed how flawed the euro is. But I think the next GFC will be around south east Asia. This will affect Europe, but not as much as it will affect Australia.

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They would be demonstrating against immigration........and I fear that the backlash from the far right thugs, who would get a whole new group of recruits, would be dangerous.  Not saying that we should pander to the extremists but to override the referendum would give them a terrific amount of ammunition.  It is why the Brexit campaign was so fundamentally evil in that it stoked up fear and hatred and continues to do so.  This genie is just not going to go back in the bottle.
For the same reason Newjez proposal to give them Hard Brexit and see how they suffer is flawed.  The extremists will use the resulting recession to blame it on foreigners (not Brexit) and stoke up the hatred to a new level.  Rising joblessness coupled with political isolation would be a potent mix.
The only realistic choice was damage limitation and this is the path May and the EU have chosen.  Nobody is going to vote for this deal because they want it.  It is pure pragmatism in the face of pig-headed intransigence.


If it comes to that, we have a crack SAS and other forces, never mind GCHQ. They will need to protect the loose cannons from themselves, in the national interest. You are right, we shouldn’t pander to the extremists, regardless of the tipping point.

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This proves the point I have been making.  The Brexit groupies were never going to accept any responsibility.  It is either the EUs fault or it is the fault of those who voted Remain.
 



Not a surprise really. Wouldn’t waste time giving their denials oxygen.

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yes austerity sucks, ask the Greeks.

 

 

Shouldn’t have been retiring at age 45 on state pensions, have jobs for life and live beyond their means (retire at age 45 and push pencils for life)....

 

Such a tragedy when reality bites. Of course they could have been left to their slow demise outside the EU - with the same result.

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rubbish!



Of course. Rainbows and Unicorns are never to blame.

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7 hours ago, simmo said:

this is not communism.  Have you heard of dividends?

You got your dividends.

You thought they were worthless so you used them for toilet paper and flushed them away.

Oh, sorry, we're all out of toilet paper now but we've got 587 pages of a new agreement which pays absolutely no dividends at all which you can use for the next 5 years

Edited by BacktoDemocracy
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Don't worry yourself mate , no one's asking for your help.



I wouldn’t quit the day job.
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it's a fact.



That you lied? Yep. It’s true.
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