Have you bought any bitcoin ?

[newjez 10,032]

6 hours ago, Parley said:

You can call it a ponzi if you wish. Many critics like to toss that around. Doesn't bother me.

I plan to sell the day before the bubble bursts 

On a serious note, I will look to sell out of all my crypto when the time is right. It has gone up too much to carry on at this rate for long. But the good thing is there is limited supply and it has global recognition and demand is high all over the world. So i don't see it bursting any time soon. 

The whole market is a bubble parley, propped up by government stimulus. Bitcoin is just the tip of the mountain. Tesla is worth over a million for each car sold. Once the money stops, it will be time to get off in a hurry. When will that be? God only knows. Maybe 2022, 2023. Maybe April.

[Parley 5,531]

9 hours ago, newjez said:

The whole market is a bubble parley, propped up by government stimulus. Bitcoin is just the tip of the mountain. Tesla is worth over a million for each car sold. Once the money stops, it will be time to get off in a hurry. When will that be? God only knows. Maybe 2022, 2023. Maybe April.

Agreed. And i think Biden is more inclined to pump even more stimulus into the market. and the Republicans won't be able to stop them. All this money printing pushes the US Dollar down and encourages people into Gold and Bitcoin.

Edited January 8 by Parley

[newjez 10,032]

21 minutes ago, Parley said:

Agreed. And i think Biden is more inclined to pump even more stimulus into the market. and the Republicans won't be able to stop them. All this money printing pushes the US Dollar up and encourages people into Gold and Bitcoin.

Well, it actually pushes the us dollar down, but yes you are right, it pushes them into risky assets. I did read an article on seeking alpha that said we are in danger of an extreme correction if the S&P hits 3900. The S&P will blow straight through 3900. I have a target of 4500 for June. I may take some shelter then. Although when it does blow is anyone's guess. Markets can get very overbought.

I'm looking at good gains in the UK market as we are playing catch-up. Australia too. I expect them to outperform the USA, although they will still do well.

As for bitcoin, it wouldn't surprise me if it hit $100,000 before June. Anything is possible now we are in bubble land.

Ride that tiger. Only thing you can really do is set a target for you, and hope that it gets there before everything crashes.

I can see this leading to an eventual bear market. But hey, what can you do. Piper will have to be paid eventually. Just make sure you don't get caught when it comes.

Trick is to never believe it's real.

Edited January 8 by newjez

[Parley 5,531]

1 hour ago, newjez said:

Well, it actually pushes the us dollar down, but yes you are right, it pushes them into risky assets. I did read an article on seeking alpha that said we are in danger of an extreme correction if the S&P hits 3900. The S&P will blow straight through 3900. I have a target of 4500 for June. I may take some shelter then. Although when it does blow is anyone's guess. Markets can get very overbought.

I'm looking at good gains in the UK market as we are playing catch-up. Australia too. I expect them to outperform the USA, although they will still do well.

As for bitcoin, it wouldn't surprise me if it hit $100,000 before June. Anything is possible now we are in bubble land.

Ride that tiger. Only thing you can really do is set a target for you, and hope that it gets there before everything crashes.

I can see this leading to an eventual bear market. But hey, what can you do. Piper will have to be paid eventually. Just make sure you don't get caught when it comes.

Trick is to never believe it's real.

Yes i meant push USD down. I corrected that in my post when i noticed. 

I think the sharemarket is overvalued but all the "experts" are predicting a good year in 2021. I'm in cash in my super and it has cost me  a lot of money but my crypto is making up for it to some extent. 

[newjez 10,032]

1 hour ago, Parley said:

Yes i meant push USD down. I corrected that in my post when i noticed. 

I think the sharemarket is overvalued but all the "experts" are predicting a good year in 2021. I'm in cash in my super and it has cost me  a lot of money but my crypto is making up for it to some extent. 

I was risk adverse for a lot of last year and I could have done alot better. Part of that was because I was out of work for half the year. But I did ok and I can't complain, especially when so many are suffering.

A lot of people predicted a sharp 10% pull back first quarter. But we got through brexit and the USA elections without it. Plus the new variant and everything else. I really can't see Biden raising taxes this year. I can't see a pull back now. Doesn't mean it won't happen, but I can't see it.

The only thing that could bring this market down is a credit crisis. Bad news gets rewarded. Good news gets rewarded. It's looking very much like the GFC. Things will go up until the virus is under control, and they are about to turn the money off. I expect that to happen late this year early next.

Of course if a variant breaks through the vaccines, all bets are off.

[newjez 10,032]

On 08/01/2021 at 04:04, Parley said:

Yes i meant push USD down. I corrected that in my post when i noticed. 

I think the sharemarket is overvalued but all the "experts" are predicting a good year in 2021. I'm in cash in my super and it has cost me  a lot of money but my crypto is making up for it to some extent. 

There are a lot of calls for a pullback, and I'm seeing the S&P 3900 put forward as the trigger. Biden speaks on Thursday about stimulus, and that should power through 3900. Only question is whether it will hold.

We could see a correction on auguration day which would be ironic. Regardless, I think it will most likely be a temporary setback, if it happens. Not many predicting otherwise. Although numbers of virus cases are high, and this will affect profits.

You take your chances, but regardless of the movements over the next month, 2021 should be a good year for shares. Haven't a clue about bitcoin, but if there is loose stimulus money around, it may find a home there.

I'm 70% invested at the moment. Thinking about putting the last 30% in this week and then taking some shelter Friday. It's nice to have some cash to buy the dips.

Edited January 9 by newjez

[Parley 5,531]

11 hours ago, newjez said:

There are a lot of calls for a pullback, and I'm seeing the S&P 3900 put forward as the trigger. Biden speaks on Thursday about stimulus, and that should power through 3900. Only question is whether it will hold.

We could see a correction on auguration day which would be ironic. Regardless, I think it will most likely be a temporary setback, if it happens. Not many predicting otherwise. Although numbers of virus cases are high, and this will affect profits.

You take your chances, but regardless of the movements over the next month, 2021 should be a good year for shares. Haven't a clue about bitcoin, but if there is loose stimulus money around, it may find a home there.

I'm 70% invested at the moment. Thinking about putting the last 30% in this week and then taking some shelter Friday. It's nice to have some cash to buy the dips.

I made 8% in the sharemarket in the 6 months to end of September. I have been trading the momentum in the market which has worked quite well at times as the market has gone up and down between 6000 and 6600 quite a few times, so sell at the top and buy at the bottom of the range.

I was unlucky in that i was in cash when the positive vaccine announcements happened which kicked off the latest strong rallies and it has now held at the top of the range.

I'm waiting for a pullback, but if it doesn't happen soon i might have to dive in regardless. At least a volatile market does provide opportunities as well as risks.

[Bobj 9,501]

Same here, well, a tad over 7%
Cheers,Bobj.

[newjez 10,032]

3 hours ago, Parley said:

I made 8% in the sharemarket in the 6 months to end of September. I have been trading the momentum in the market which has worked quite well at times as the market has gone up and down between 6000 and 6600 quite a few times, so sell at the top and buy at the bottom of the range.

I was unlucky in that i was in cash when the positive vaccine announcements happened which kicked off the latest strong rallies and it has now held at the top of the range.

I'm waiting for a pullback, but if it doesn't happen soon i might have to dive in regardless. At least a volatile market does provide opportunities as well as risks.

The vaccine news came earlier than I had expected. I was in the process of moving my ISA into airlines, and had committed half when the news broke. I made a tidy profit but less than I had hoped.

I've been in oil, banks and alternative energy since the USA election. They have been doing well.

I've decided to keep my 30% pension as cash. I'm a bit worried this auguration may be buy the rumour sell the news. My pensions aren't great at movement and they can lock when I make a change. I'm thinking maybe the S&P may hit 3900 this week, and then could sell off. 

Unemployment isn't looking good state side, and earnings start being reported soon. These may disappoint. The virus numbers are very bad despite the vaccine. Biden may give stimulus, but this should be priced in. He could also try and lockdown, which will save lives, but the markets won't like it.

I'm thinking if the S&P hits 3900, I may start to increase my cash pile. It's hard to predict as everything is so irrational at the moment. But I think I'll sleep better.

[newjez 10,032]

This guy is quite good parley from an Australian perspective.

https://australianmarketreport.wordpress.com/2021/01/10/weekly-wrap-8-1-21-xjo-stays-in-consolidation/

He tends to do a daily blog, and does cover the USA.

[Red Rose 240]

This seems to be a good thread for finance discussions haha. What do you guys think of the vanguard passive funds such as the global all cap? 

[newjez 10,032]

2 minutes ago, Red Rose said:

This seems to be a good thread for finance discussions haha. What do you guys think of the vanguard passive funds such as the global all cap? 

With any fund I look primarily what they are invested in and go from there.

Many are centred around the us tech giants, Google, apple, Amazon etc, which have done very well. I find it very hard to justify their value, so I try and make sure I'm not overly exposed. But any funds invested in them will have done very well.

I'm close to retirement, so I am looking for some exposure to value stocks, oil and gas, utilities, etc. I also am over exposed to UK, as they have been overlooked due to brexit.

It's hard to say one fund is better than another, because they serve different needs for different people at different times in their lives. What suits me may not suit you.

[Red Rose 240]

38 minutes ago, newjez said:

With any fund I look primarily what they are invested in and go from there.

Many are centred around the us tech giants, Google, apple, Amazon etc, which have done very well. I find it very hard to justify their value, so I try and make sure I'm not overly exposed. But any funds invested in them will have done very well.

I'm close to retirement, so I am looking for some exposure to value stocks, oil and gas, utilities, etc. I also am over exposed to UK, as they have been overlooked due to brexit.

It's hard to say one fund is better than another, because they serve different needs for different people at different times in their lives. What suits me may not suit you.

Edit 

Edited January 10 by Red Rose

[newjez 10,032]

Wow! When these things move, they really move.

Any reason other than someone said something nasty?

Edited January 11 by newjez

[Parley 5,531]

14 hours ago, newjez said:

Wow! When these things move, they really move.

Any reason other than someone said something nasty?

Someone spooked the herd. Seems to have recovered a bit. Hopefully it can hold these levels.

[newjez 10,032]

3 hours ago, Parley said:

Someone spooked the herd. Seems to have recovered a bit. Hopefully it can hold these levels.

There are more and more calls that the market is overbought. Not deafening yet, and markets can stay overbought for some time. I am hoping we will get through January ok, but it's going to go sometime soon. It's like playing a giant game of buckeroo.

[Perthbum 5,698]

people have lost a lot of money over the last 12 months in stocks and shares, listening to martin lewis today he advises sitting on your hands for now as buying stock that is rock bottom is a big risk at the moment

[newjez 10,032]

15 hours ago, Perthbum said:

people have lost a lot of money over the last 12 months in stocks and shares, listening to martin lewis today he advises sitting on your hands for now as buying stock that is rock bottom is a big risk at the moment

Strange interpretation of rock bottom. The US market is at an all time high.

But I would agree there is great risk.

Many companies, especially airlines have taken on a lot of debt.

Edited January 14 by newjez

[Parley 5,531]

3 hours ago, newjez said:

Strange interpretation of rock bottom. The US market is at an all time high.

But I would agree there is great risk.

Many companies, especially airlines have taken on a lot of debt.

Maybe he was referring to bitcoin. The thing is markets often do the opposite of what we expect.

People were probably thinking that was it for bitcoin after it corrected down to $30K. But today it seems to be going up again. Currently over $38K Only a couple of K off its all time high of a few weeks ago.

With the stockmarket too, crashes usually happen when all the experts don't expect it. It is safest not to over commit in any one stock.

Do you buy ETFs Newjez ?

[newjez 10,032]

5 hours ago, Parley said:

Maybe he was referring to bitcoin. The thing is markets often do the opposite of what we expect.

People were probably thinking that was it for bitcoin after it corrected down to $30K. But today it seems to be going up again. Currently over $38K Only a couple of K off its all time high of a few weeks ago.

With the stockmarket too, crashes usually happen when all the experts don't expect it. It is safest not to over commit in any one stock.

Do you buy ETFs Newjez ?

I invest in funds though my pension. I don't know if they are ETFs.

In my ISA I tend to buy individual shares.

Everything is anticipating Biden's speech. I hope he doesn't disappoint. The worry is inflation. Ambrose had a good article on it in the telegraph today. Ambrose tends to be a panic merchant, but he is often right eventually. Inflation will kill the golden goose. Or rather, any firm hint of inflation will kill the golden goose.

I'm 70% invested. I don't feel confident putting more in. But I'm unsure when to reduce.

Too many unknowns, so all you can really do is play it as safe as you can.

[newjez 10,032]

20 hours ago, Parley said:

Maybe he was referring to bitcoin. The thing is markets often do the opposite of what we expect.

People were probably thinking that was it for bitcoin after it corrected down to $30K. But today it seems to be going up again. Currently over $38K Only a couple of K off its all time high of a few weeks ago.

With the stockmarket too, crashes usually happen when all the experts don't expect it. It is safest not to over commit in any one stock.

Do you buy ETFs Newjez ?

Tbh I was hoping for a more positive response than that. I'm guessing it was all priced in.

Question is, where to now. Can we really see the markets going higher from here. I know it's possible, but I'm becoming sceptical.

I don't think it's time for a mad panic. But I don't see much chance of missing out by moving to cash, and there is potential downside.

Edited January 15 by newjez

[Red Rose 240]

What is the cheapest cryptocurrency you guys would take a punt on for 2021? 

[Paul1Perth 5,066]

11 hours ago, Red Rose said:

What is the cheapest cryptocurrency you guys would take a punt on for 2021? 

If I was to buy any I'd stick with bitcoin. They've talked about the price on the news, what other cryptocurrency do they mention?

Any publicity is good.

[Perthbum 5,698]

On 14/01/2021 at 07:20, newjez said:

Strange interpretation of rock bottom. The US market is at an all time high.

But I would agree there is great risk.

Many companies, especially airlines have taken on a lot of debt.

Its impossible for stocks not to show an increase over the decades as inflation goes up over the decades,  a Dollar 50 years ago would by you a lot more than a Dollar today...in real terms the USA has been in a far better financial position than it is now in the past.

[BacktoDemocracy 6,171]

On 14/01/2021 at 10:59, Parley said:

Maybe he was referring to bitcoin. The thing is markets often do the opposite of what we expect.

People were probably thinking that was it for bitcoin after it corrected down to $30K. But today it seems to be going up again. Currently over $38K Only a couple of K off its all time high of a few weeks ago.

With the stockmarket too, crashes usually happen when all the experts don't expect it. It is safest not to over commit in any one stock.

Do you buy ETFs Newjez ?

This gives a alternative viewpoint

https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2021/jan/19/is-bitcoin-a-scam?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other