Australian House Price Growth

[Guest The Pom Queen]

 

Australian house prices have grown rapidly over the past year, continuing the trend since the end of the global financial crisis.

Across the nation's capitals, prices jumped by 10.7% in the year to August, according to data from CoreLogic, leaving the median price at $567,000.

However, as seen in the map below posted by CoreLogic's head of research, Tim Lawless, on Twitter, that national figure was not reflective of board-based gains across the nation.

 

Indeed, it was entirely driven by strength in Australia's southeastern corner, especially in Sydney and Melbourne, Australia's largest housing markets.

Based on SA4 regional data, breaking states down into large regional areas, prices in many regions within and surrounding Sydney and Melbourne grew by 10% or more over the year, masking falls or significantly smaller gains in other parts of the country.

 

This divergence reflects stronger economic conditions in both Sydney and Melbourne over the year, partially contributing to strong population growth in both cities over the same period.

The map provides an excellent reminder that Australia's housing market is not one market, but many, with the strength in the national figure over the past year merely reflecting strong gains in small-yet-highly-populated parts of the country.

It also underscores the conundrum facing policymakers who are currently attempting to cool strong price growth in Australia's southeastern corner without exacerbating price weakness in other parts of the county.

 

 




 

 

 

Sent using Poms in Oz mobile app

[Parley]

You should have stayed in Melbourne Pom Queen.

[Guest263228]

For goodness sake why?  Talk about a city being spoilt by its popularity.

[Guest The Pom Queen]

1 hour ago, Parley said:

You should have stayed in Melbourne Pom Queen.

I think we got out at the right time to be honest. It was definitely Cairns and Townsville where we lost money or broke even. Saying that Cairns was the most beautiful place I have lived

[Zatara80]

We were looking at house prices last night in the areas we thought we would like to purchase in the future, we looked up to 1 hour from Melbourne CBD and we knew it would be expensive but gosh to get a modern decent house in a nice area really is like breaking an arm or leg.

We've noticed that there are a lot of house auctions on the real estate websites, do banks in Australia lend for auctions or would it apply to cash buyers only? Also, we are looking at what it would cost to buy land and get a house building company to build those ready packaged houses there...any ideas if the Banks would lend for land and house to be built?

After our house sale, we will only have £70,000 for a deposit for a house in Australia...from what I am reading, this will not be a great deposit, although I hope acceptable???

[ScottieGirl]

The majority of sales in Sydney and Melbourne are sold by auction so yes you can get a mortgage. The bank will give you a pre approval amount so you know what the limit is on how much you can bid.

However if you are not a PR you need FIRB approval, the approval is specific to the property and it normally takes longer to get than the auction campaign. It's  also expensive. So in practice buying at auction is a challenge if you don't  have PR.

[Zatara80]

7 hours ago, ScottieGirl said:

The majority of sales in Sydney and Melbourne are sold by auction so yes you can get a mortgage. The bank will give you a pre approval amount so you know what the limit is on how much you can bid.

However if you are not a PR you need FIRB approval, the approval is specific to the property and it normally takes longer to get than the auction campaign. It's  also expensive. So in practice buying at auction is a challenge if you don't  have PR.

Thanks ScottieGirl,

We are currently just browsing to get an idea but will definitely only buy once we have PR for exact those reasons as well as the cost associated to get FIRB approval ($5000 for a house costing $1 million or less), just looking at our options for the future as house prices in Oz seems to be ever climbing....for now anyway!

 

[Guest263228]

The onus being on 'for now anyway'. Over here in Perth, we have witnessed some dropping of prices within the metro area. No where near enough or' bottomed out'  IMO. Those with vested interests through the media attempt to convince us otherwise of course.

[Guest The Pom Queen]

On 13/09/2017 at 20:16, Zatara80 said:

We were looking at house prices last night in the areas we thought we would like to purchase in the future, we looked up to 1 hour from Melbourne CBD and we knew it would be expensive but gosh to get a modern decent house in a nice area really is like breaking an arm or leg.

We've noticed that there are a lot of house auctions on the real estate websites, do banks in Australia lend for auctions or would it apply to cash buyers only? Also, we are looking at what it would cost to buy land and get a house building company to build those ready packaged houses there...any ideas if the Banks would lend for land and house to be built?

After our house sale, we will only have £70,000 for a deposit for a house in Australia...from what I am reading, this will not be a great deposit, although I hope acceptable???

I have to admit Melbourne has gone crazy since we have been here. Especially with the exchange rate coming in to play. I'm sure we worked it out that our Brand new ex display house, 5 bed, with cinema room was £80,000 back then

Blocks of land were around $20,000 the same blocks now go for over $300,000.

This one around the corner, smaller land size and house is up on the market now for $700,000 so around £400k with the current exchange

In regards to your deposit have a chat with @Andrew from Vista Financial He secured us a mortgage where others couldn't. If you send him a pm he may be able to advise how much you could borrow. 

[Zatara80]

8 hours ago, The Pom Queen said:

I have to admit Melbourne has gone crazy since we have been here. Especially with the exchange rate coming in to play. I'm sure we worked it out that our Brand new ex display house, 5 bed, with cinema room was £80,000 back then

Blocks of land were around $20,000 the same blocks now go for over $300,000.

This one around the corner, smaller land size and house is up on the market now for $700,000 so around £400k with the current exchange

In regards to your deposit have a chat with @Andrew from Vista Financial He secured us a mortgage where others couldn't. If you send him a pm he may be able to advise how much you could borrow. 

Thanks Pom Queen,

Seems like you are living the dream with a very respectable house equity that most would only dream of.

We will email him for some advice once we have settled in Oz.

Read yesterday that some people are buying cheaper houses on decent sized land to then bulldoze the house over and build a new one to their standards and taste. Would be far cheaper and would add instant value to house IMO but depends if bank would lend for a project like this, who knows but this might become the norm in the future if house prices continue to climb?

[Guest263228]

One would need to be careful not too over capitalise though. An acquaintance of mine, I recall mentioning a couple of years ago, his cost estimates into refurbishing their house just didn't stack up value wise. Unless of course you or member in family are builders, it is a very expensive operation.

My take would be any future purchase, buy new, all completed, or most of, when the time is right. It hasn't proved that difficult for potential home buyers to get brokers, in order to brokage deals, sometimes beyond the capacity to repay come a change to situation like rate rises.

[rammygirl]

Even plots of land with decrepit houses on go for eye watering amounts in some areas.  Add to this the cost of removal, especially if asbestos is involved ( common ).  Even on the outskirts of Adelaide, the supposedly cheaper market I have seen plots of land around 600-700 m with run down properties only worth bulldozing go for $700-$900k. Madness.  Although wish we had bought there and not in the Hills.  Although I love it here the house has not risen in value nearly as much.  At least not yet, families are looking further out for more affordable homes and prices are definitely creeping up, especially for turnkey properties.

[Guest The Pom Queen]

Yes over here it's the land that costs the money rather than the house itself. In Melbourne we were in the South East and back then the new builds tended to stop after Cranbourne, now they are building way out past Nar Nar Goon etc. 

[rammygirl]

Yes some people we know who lived on the last row of development on the Melbourne outskirts, went to Switzerland for  a couple of years for work.

when they returned to their home it was surrounded! They had several more blocks already built behind them and being lived in and more to come.  Their commute was already a pain, all those extra people now are making them consider moving again.

[Parley]

It is not madness rammygirl.

With these older houses you are paying land value when you buy. The house is often not worth anything.

It happens all the time here in the well established eastern suburbs of melbourne.

The older 1960s weatherboards get bought for over a million, the house is demolished and a new townhouse or large home built.

It makes sense because the blocks are quite large. It obviously makes financial sense as it happens all the time here.

A derelict house on a block over 700 sq metres goes for 1.1 to 1.2 Million. Multiple bidders at the auctions too.

[Parley]

The other thing that surprises me is the block gets cleared in only 1 or 2 days.

The bull dozer smashes it down and it is a totally bare block in only 2 days. 

Specialist companies do it very quickly and remove everything. No idea what they charge.

[kevsan]

33 minutes ago, Parley said:

Specialist companies do it very quickly and remove everything. No idea what they charge.

it was about 20k when we looked into it for an average 3 bed.

[Parley]

3 minutes ago, kevsan said:

it was about 20k when we looked into it for an average 3 bed.

Probably not that significant when you have just paid well over $1M.

[KurtH]

I guess the question is when to buy. House prices have stalled in Sydney now. My wife and I are looking to buy but don't feel like now is the time to invest. Frankly (sorry to those who have just bought) we are hoping for a fall in prices. 20% would be nice.

[Guest263228]

14 hours ago, KurtH said:

I guess the question is when to buy. House prices have stalled in Sydney now. My wife and I are looking to buy but don't feel like now is the time to invest. Frankly (sorry to those who have just bought) we are hoping for a fall in prices. 20% would be nice.

Hang in there and don't feel pressured . Australia's housing is quite a mess. It won't take much, to see some of the most over priced and over leveraged housing in the world  to drop. The question is by how much and how much more tinkering is the government prepared to do to maintain the façade.

Interest rates will have to rise at some stage with overseas  nations beginning to do so. Australia usually follows America in that, but will likely try to differ knowing the pain that be inflicted, but will have little scope not to raise them, even if defers a time longer.

[Guest263228]

To give a further example my accountant has sold his house and rents. A far better use of resources as well as prepared for when reality further bites here in Perth.

[starlight7]

Not sure the prices will drop because there are overseas buyers continually pushing up prices.  Our negligent government just lets them do it, they don't even have to live here or have any interest in the country at all.

[Guest263228]

2 hours ago, starlight7 said:

Not sure the prices will drop because there are overseas buyers continually pushing up prices.  Our negligent government just lets them do it, they don't even have to live here or have any interest in the country at all.

Not only that, but until recently, the banks facilitated foreigners borrowing money in order to purchase Australian real estate , further putting it out of reach. Yes I believe they will come down but when remains an open question. The simple reason being each passing year, ever more people are locked out of housing. Sydney and Melbourne will become hell holes, un affordable to most Australians.

Of course those that allowed the state of things to get so out of hand deserve at the least a summons to explain motives and a Royal Commission into the banking industry should be a priority The selling out of this country is criminal. It is food for right wing political politics and disharmony.

The government can be thankful apathy is such a profound sentiment in this country and people live rather 'private inside lives'.

[ScottieGirl]

For prices to drop there need to be significantly more sellers than buyers. Since most people don't like selling in a buyers market they need to be forced sales.  This would require some sort of crisis that preciptates rate rises or a rise in unemployment. Even if rates were to rise 0.5% that still only brings them back to where they were in 2016.  People who bought prior to that would cope unless they lost their jobs. It may be tough but they won't lose their homes

Changes to stamp duty and negative gearing will reduce the number of investors buying but again they won't sell up unless it becomes unprofitable.

I don't see prices falling dramatically in Sydney or Melbourne, 5% maybe but not 20%. 

[Guest263228]

9 hours ago, ScottieGirl said:

For prices to drop there need to be significantly more sellers than buyers. Since most people don't like selling in a buyers market they need to be forced sales.  This would require some sort of crisis that preciptates rate rises or a rise in unemployment. Even if rates were to rise 0.5% that still only brings them back to where they were in 2016.  People who bought prior to that would cope unless they lost their jobs. It may be tough but they won't lose their homes

Changes to stamp duty and negative gearing will reduce the number of investors buying but again they won't sell up unless it becomes unprofitable.

I don't see prices falling dramatically in Sydney or Melbourne, 5% maybe but not 20%. 

A lot of people are/will be a little tired of purely 'coping' with living with some of the world's most over inflated housing prices. It will increasing become less politically a selling point maintaining ever higher prices due to political manipulation.

Australia would likely be the first nation that have managed to surmount such challenges if it did come about. For one thing growth in house prices as way out stripped wage growth over time. The housing costs in excess of  6.5 times  annual wages is close to the highest in the world.

Interest rates will rise with the rise of American interest rates, the currency Australian loans are in. Not a thing Australia can do about that. That's al reliant on overseas events.

Nobody or few agreed the state of the WA economy would be as it is at the moment just a few short years ago. People are so easy to convince and manipulated. We now have the highest delinquency rate regarding payments in Australia. Still only a trickle compared to the likelihood of great numbers finding themselves in a spot of bother come even the smallest of rises. Let alone a return to a more normal rate.

Changes in NG and the removal of housing from being included in inflation figures as well as halving the tax, by the idiotic Howard Lib government has done no end of damage to the economy.

NAB indicated recently that their figures showed 11.6%  oh house buyers and 17% of flat buyers were foreign based. At one point the owners of property applauding many hundreds of times increase in their property will be silenced in their complicity in selling out the nation by the growing chorus of dissatisfied and disillusioned people either locked out or locked in a life time beholden to banks , even if little else happened.

Of course denial was very evident in the air in Ireland and USA before their corrections as well. But some believe Australia is 'different'.

New Zealand is setting a 'new tone' with its new government. Something Australia could emulate when and if it ever manages to elect a political class willing to do something towards housing than a few sound bites. If not a very high price will be paid.