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simmo

How is Trump doing so far?

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6 minutes ago, Gbye grey sky said:

What will said deal contain?

I am struggling to find out what sort of deal the US are looking for.  So on that basis any deal could be seen as a huge win for Trump by some I suppose even if nothing much changes.

You need to wait and see but probably be great for the working class who support Trump.

Farmers and the like.

And obviously China need to buy a lot more US goods generally to reduce their trade surplus.

China get away unchecked with rampant illegality like Intellectual Property theft and everyone has been scared to stand up to them in the past. 

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1 hour ago, Parley said:

You need to wait and see but probably be great for the working class who support Trump.

Farmers and the like.

And obviously China need to buy a lot more US goods generally to reduce their trade surplus.

China get away unchecked with rampant illegality like Intellectual Property theft and everyone has been scared to stand up to them in the past. 

There is at least one flaw there, China is not a true democracy, there are very few repercussions for the Chinese autocracy if China's economy slows badly, even if there are some repercussions they are easily dealt with by blaming the US, the Chinese leaders will not be voted out of office, 2 years of economic decline in the USA is going to be more difficult  to spin away..

Maybe we are about to witness imperial over reach in action, preparations for war against Iran and economic carnage at home.

Trump trying to reincarnate the good ole' days is a bit like the UK hankering for the Empire days, it ain't goin' happen, ever

As we all know for China and Japan, it is all about 'Face' so I doubt that there will be any Chinese backdown.

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10 hours ago, BacktoDemocracy said:

There is at least one flaw there, China is not a true democracy, there are very few repercussions for the Chinese autocracy if China's economy slows badly, even if there are some repercussions they are easily dealt with by blaming the US, the Chinese leaders will not be voted out of office, 2 years of economic decline in the USA is going to be more difficult  to spin away..

Maybe we are about to witness imperial over reach in action, preparations for war against Iran and economic carnage at home.

Trump trying to reincarnate the good ole' days is a bit like the UK hankering for the Empire days, it ain't goin' happen, ever

As we all know for China and Japan, it is all about 'Face' so I doubt that there will be any Chinese backdown.

I feel that you are underplaying US power and influence.  Yes it is waning a little but it is still THE Superpower economically.

Trump is nothing if not a bully.  And all bullies have an instinct for their relative power and influence.

Whilst it is true that China is not a democracy and can pay scant attention to ordinary working Chinese what is not understood is how little impact ordinary working people in the USA actually have.  About half of them do not vote at all and the other half generally have the choice of two parties, neither of which have their interests at heart.

Ultimately the deciding factor will be the extent to which the wealthy and powerful in China and the USA assert dominance because both of these will be hurting from trade wars.  If nothing else it will indicate how secure the Communist Party hierarchy in China actually are.


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7 hours ago, Gbye grey sky said:

I feel that you are underplaying US power and influence.  Yes it is waning a little but it is still THE Superpower economically.

Trump is nothing if not a bully.  And all bullies have an instinct for their relative power and influence.

Whilst it is true that China is not a democracy and can pay scant attention to ordinary working Chinese what is not understood is how little impact ordinary working people in the USA actually have.  About half of them do not vote at all and the other half generally have the choice of two parties, neither of which have their interests at heart.

Ultimately the deciding factor will be the extent to which the wealthy and powerful in China and the USA assert dominance because both of these will be hurting from trade wars.  If nothing else it will indicate how secure the Communist Party hierarchy in China actually are.

Agreed, workers in the US have limited power but can vote Trump out and if big US money starts to hurt badly they will bundle Trump out, Republican or not, and I don’t  think Trump has realised that their support can disappear like dew on a summer morning, whereas the Communist party know that if they give way to the US then their power will be eroded, and especially Xi? cannot allow himself to be seen to be weak in the face of Trump and may gamble that Trump is over extending himself, politically and militarily.  

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33 minutes ago, BacktoDemocracy said:

Agreed, workers in the US have limited power but can vote Trump out and if big US money starts to hurt badly they will bundle Trump out, Republican or not, and I don’t  think Trump has realised that their support can disappear like dew on a summer morning, whereas the Communist party know that if they give way to the US then their power will be eroded, and especially Xi? cannot allow himself to be seen to be weak in the face of Trump and may gamble that Trump is over extending himself, politically and militarily.  

The USA is one of the most unequal societies in the world. It's a classic example of when you allow too much capitalism and not enough socialism. They got away with it when their poor were richer than everyone else's poor. But you would be hard to argue that case now.

Trump didn't create that inequality, and democrats can often be more right wing than republicans.

Maybe he will go some ways towards making the USA more equal. But at the moment, it's just looking like he will make everything more expensive. I doubt he has time to see his policies through.

Alot depends on who follows trump.

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1 hour ago, BacktoDemocracy said:

Agreed, workers in the US have limited power but can vote Trump out and if big US money starts to hurt badly they will bundle Trump out, Republican or not, and I don’t  think Trump has realised that their support can disappear like dew on a summer morning, whereas the Communist party know that if they give way to the US then their power will be eroded, and especially Xi? cannot allow himself to be seen to be weak in the face of Trump and may gamble that Trump is over extending himself, politically and militarily.  

Much will depend on who is pitted against Trump in 2020.  If it just another representative of the Washington establishment like Hillary was then I wouldn’t bet against re-election whatever happens in the next 18 months.

Never underestimate the strength of the incumbent President.  Almost all Presidents serve a 2nd term.

Because the US is being pretty non-specific about their terms unless I have missed them I suspect a deal could be done with both sides claiming victory.

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Timeline: 309/100 Sent 7/8/13, Money Taken 9/8/13, CO appointed 3/9/13. Med 3/12/13. Police check 4/12/13. VISA GRANTED 8/4/14, Subclass100. Recce August 2014. Arrived 30 July 2015.

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20 minutes ago, Gbye grey sky said:

Much will depend on who is pitted against Trump in 2020.  If it just another representative of the Washington establishment like Hillary was then I wouldn’t bet against re-election whatever happens in the next 18 months.

Never underestimate the strength of the incumbent President.  Almost all Presidents serve a 2nd term.

Because the US is being pretty non-specific about their terms unless I have missed them I suspect a deal could be done with both sides claiming victory.

You have come a long way from when you said Trump wouldn't last 3 months from the stress. You and Very Stormy did used to make me laugh.


I want it all, and I want it now.

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1 hour ago, Parley said:

You have come a long way from when you said Trump wouldn't last 3 months from the stress. You and Very Stormy did used to make me laugh.

You will have to find that quote as I don’t recall ever thinking any such thing.

I haven’t altered my opinion on him.  He and the morons he surrounds himself with have enacted some terribly regressive policies largely hidden by his publicity-seeking tweets.

 

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Timeline: 309/100 Sent 7/8/13, Money Taken 9/8/13, CO appointed 3/9/13. Med 3/12/13. Police check 4/12/13. VISA GRANTED 8/4/14, Subclass100. Recce August 2014. Arrived 30 July 2015.

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4 hours ago, newjez said:

The USA is one of the most unequal societies in the world. It's a classic example of when you allow too much capitalism and not enough socialism. They got away with it when their poor were richer than everyone else's poor. But you would be hard to argue that case now.

Trump didn't create that inequality, and democrats can often be more right wing than republicans.

Maybe he will go some ways towards making the USA more equal. But at the moment, it's just looking like he will make everything more expensive. I doubt he has time to see his policies through.

Alot depends on who follows trump.

Yes, the thing I find fascinating is that if you look at US economy and the UK's economy over something like the last 150 years and possibly longer,  then  it seems to me that poverty and inequality have been the common theme for all that time with a few blips of plenty for all and the longest of those blips was during and after the 2nd WW, which lasted longer than most as the world recovered from the war, that was experienced by many posting on here and I'm sure forms their view of the world and how it should be, when in actual fact the reality is that we are simply seeing the economies revert to their normal position of growing inequalities.

It is, to my mind, startlingly obvious how little power workers here and in the USA now have in comparison to any other western European country and how easily these 2 countries have fallen under the spell of nationalism and populism as workers try to gain some sense of power over events which are now so obviously beyond their control, yes globalisation is part of the problem but that has been hugely facilitated by the greed of our own elected governments. 

 

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