Brexit and northern Ireland will be a pain!

[Collie]

13 hours ago, VERYSTORMY said:

On recent numbers - this week - French economy is worse than the UK. Inflation is below Germany, the so called beating heart of Europe. Have a look at unemployment - the entire system is failing. Unemployment is about twice  

The EU was not set up to maintain peace. Far from it. It was set up to act as a dominant power to other parts of the world. Look at the way it treats imports from the poorest countries such as Africa with massive tarrifs.  The only thing the EU has changed since 45 is the use of gas chambers against the poorest countries. Instead it likes to watch them slowly starve. I suppose to the sick that is more fun. 

Good to have your usual constructive and positive contribution, Very Stormy (& yes I am being sarcastic).  Do you never tire of being so cynical?  The gas chamber reference is in particularly poor taste.  It must be hard living with such a negative and cyncial outlook on life, I hope you find some peace soon.

 

A peaceful Europe – the beginnings of cooperation

The European Union is set up with the aim of ending the frequent and bloody wars between neighbours, which culminated in the Second World War. As of 1950, the European Coal and Steel Community begins to unite European countries economically and politically in order to secure lasting peace.

 https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/history_en

[aussiederek]

13 hours ago, VERYSTORMY said:

On recent numbers - this week - French economy is worse than the UK. Inflation is below Germany, the so called beating heart of Europe. Have a look at unemployment - the entire system is failing. Unemployment is about twice  

The EU was not set up to maintain peace. Far from it. It was set up to act as a dominant power to other parts of the world. Look at the way it treats imports from the poorest countries such as Africa with massive tarrifs.  The only thing the EU has changed since 45 is the use of gas chambers against the poorest countries. Instead it likes to watch them slowly starve. I suppose to the sick that is more fun. 

Your comments about the use of gas chambers and poor countries starving are out of order Verystormy! You also previously referred to people like me who were political Unionist in Northern Ireland (I'm an Aussie now) as having a very nasty streak, which I found most offensive. You are supposed to be a Moderator on this forum mate, I think you need to moderate yourself!

[newjez]

19 hours ago, VERYSTORMY said:

On recent numbers - this week - French economy is worse than the UK. Inflation is below Germany, the so called beating heart of Europe. Have a look at unemployment - the entire system is failing. Unemployment is about twice  

The EU was not set up to maintain peace. Far from it. It was set up to act as a dominant power to other parts of the world. Look at the way it treats imports from the poorest countries such as Africa with massive tarrifs.  The only thing the EU has changed since 45 is the use of gas chambers against the poorest countries. Instead it likes to watch them slowly starve. I suppose to the sick that is more fun. 

Since when was the EU created as a charitable organisation? It is a protectionism zone. You like protectionism zones. You can't argue both ways mate.

Inflation in Germany is high for different reasons. Ours is high because we crashed our currency by taking on a huge risk. Why is Germany's high?

You are starting to sound a little irrational mate. Chill out a bit. It's pretty obvious you won't get the brexit you wanted, but then you never would. You wouldn't be happy unless you have something to moan about

[Collie]

 

Interesting article for this tread, great picture too.

Balkanisation of the UK could leave NI badly exposed

Economic shock and a cut in Westminster transfers could blight living standards

Fri, May 19, 2017, 05:54

John FitzGerald

3

Swinging in the wind: Carrick-a-Rede rope bridge in Co Antrim. Photograph: iStock

Previous ImageNext Image

The dynamic of nationalism within the constituent parts of the United Kingdon, of which Brexit is a consequence, has implications for Ireland. The rise of English and Scottish nationalism has transformed the UK’s political system.

For more than a century, the issues that dominated elections in England and Scotland were broadly similar, and the three main parties – Conservatives, Labour and Liberals/Liberal Democrats – between them held the vast majority of seats in both Scotland and England. Today, however, the SNP holds 56 of the 59 Scottish seats at Westminster, while the Conservative and Labour parties dominate the English seats.

In this respect, Scotland’s Westminster representation is more like that of Northern Ireland, whose MPs have, since 1922, reflected the different perspectives on the North’s identity.

In the last election in the UK, instead of trying to scare English voters with the prospect of reds under the bed, an important Conservative argument was that a vote for Labour could see the SNP in government in Westminster as part of a coalition. For some English voters, the prospect of Scottish participation in government was seen to be a particularly undesirable outcome.

This difference in political representation reflects the very different political priorities of the voters in the different parts of the UK. Brexit has crystallised the difference in outlook in a manner that may be irreversible. The fear is that it may result in a major decline in regional solidarity within the UK.

Today there are major transfers from the richer English regions to the poorer UK regions, especially Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, the poorer regions of England fare less well than Scotland and Northern Ireland. Whether this pattern of income redistribution can survive Brexit and the related rise in English nationalism seems very doubtful.

If you compare Northern Ireland and the northeast of England, the two regions have similar, low, output per head – about 75 per cent of the UK average. In Scotland, partly due to oil, output per head in 2015 was more than 90 per cent of the UK average.

 

However, what really stands out is the disparity in public expenditure per head between the North, Scotland and the poorest English regions, such as the northeast. Public expenditure per head in Northern Ireland is 125 per cent of the UK average, compared with 115 per cent in Scotland and 105 per cent for northeast England. This reflects the massive budgetary transfer from Westminster to the North of more than 30 per cent of regional GDP, something that does not happen within England.

In Northern Ireland an abnormally large share of output is accounted for by public expenditure, funded by transfers from London. Without transfers on this scale, output per head in the North would be even lower than it is.

English reckoning

As the costs of Brexit bite in the UK economy, there will be ongoing pressure to reduce expenditure or increase taxation. Where the axe will fall will be determined by the new UK government, almost certainly a government made up of English MPs, with a possible smattering of Welsh representatives.

As in the current government, MPs from Northern Ireland and Scotland will have no role. Under these circumstances, it seems highly possible that the English government of the UK may reconsider the generosity of their transfers to Scotland and Northern Ireland. It will be doubly hard to argue that the transfers should continue at the current level when poor English regions are today treated significantly less generously.

With the North likely to suffer disproportionately from Brexit, a simultaneous cut in the large transfers, to bring its treatment more into line with northeast England, could produce a pretty dramatic cut in living standards. It could affect the quality of public services in the North as well as personal disposable incomes.

Today these transfers ensure that average household income in the North is more than 80 per cent of the UK average.

In the longer term, if Scotland were to leave the UK, it would leave Northern Ireland even more exposed – a true political orphan. However, even if the balkanisation of the UK continues, while keeping Scotland within the UK, it is likely to be destabilising from an economic and social point of view.

Having been the first to leave the UK in 1922, it may seem unfair to now want to pull up the drawbridge. However, we may well find that a fractured UK poses other serious problems for Ireland over and above the multiple challenges posed by Brexit.

[simmo]

what a load of nonsense 

[amibovered]

1 hour ago, simmo said:

what a load of nonsense 

As support for remaining in the EU is in free-fall, the few remaining euro-fanatics are becoming more and more hysterical, I suppose it must give them some comfort!!  

[newjez]

1 hour ago, amibovered said:

As support for remaining in the EU is in free-fall, the few remaining euro-fanatics are becoming more and more hysterical, I suppose it must give them some comfort!!  

So, if you can't come up with a decent response you play the man? Fair enough.

[Collie]

10 hours ago, simmo said:

what a load of nonsense 

Very constructive.  What issues do you have with the article?  The author is a very well qualified economist and has a long political family history (his father was the Irish PM in the 80's and was an author of the original Anglo Irish agreement with the UK), see his credentials below.  Basically he know his stuff.

I'm not sure what you think is nonsense, perhaps you could articulate your argument with more words than "What a load of nonsense".  The 1st 2/3rds of the article is factually based ie London and the SE of the UK basically subsidize the rest of the UK to varying amounts and that Scotland and NI get a better deal than parts of the North of England with similar economic and population characteristics.

The 2nd part is a hypothesis (from English reckoning down) is that in a post Brexit world and with the rise in nationalism and a UK government made up of mostly English (& a few Welsh) MPs, the pressure will be to improve the lot of the poorer parts of England.  This will most likely come from reducing the block grants to NI and Scotland (whose MPs will not be in Govt) leading to a lower living standards in those areas (and raising them in parts of England.  A not unreasonable hypothesis IMO.  The alternative is increasing taxes or borrowing for current expenditure.

 

John D. FitzGerald was head of the Macroeconomics and Resource economics Division and former coordinator of the research programme of macroeconomics of the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in Dublin, Ireland. He joined the ESRI in 1984, after 12 years at the Department of Finance. He holds master's degrees in History and Economics from University College Dublin.

He is currently a member of the Independent Expert Panel Commission established by the Department of Communications Energy and Natural Resources in 2014. He is also a member of the Commission of the Central Bank of Ireland.^[1][2]

Edited May 22, 2017 by Collie

[simmo]

9 hours ago, amibovered said:

As support for remaining in the EU is in free-fall, the few remaining euro-fanatics are becoming more and more hysterical, I suppose it must give them some comfort!!  

I suppose Brexit will mean certain parts of GB & NI will not get a seat on the gravy train.