So Brexit now needs parliamentary approval?

[VERYSTORMY]

The two year period can only be extended if the European Council and the UK unanimously agree to it. If negotiations go badly the UK could easily be shoved out the door with nothing agreed.

 

Correct, though personally, as a supporter of hard Brexit, I would like to se it concluded within days of article 50 being triggered.

[tea4too]

Not read all the posts, so apologies if this has already been mentioned but, Lord Kerr devised Article 50 and he is of the view that the country "might want to think again" when Brexit terms become clearer, adding "You can change your mind while the process is going on”.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37852628

[BacktoDemocracy]

But that is just it. Article 50 itself does nothing. All it states is that under article 50, a member state can give notice of an INTENT to leave the EU. It doesn't mean we leave, it doesn't actually mean anything. It is an international treaty and the article simply says that under this treaty a member may give the other members a notice. There is in triggering article 50 nothing to scrutinize. All the article 50 trigger amounts to is a short - probably two sentence letter stating that in accordance with article 50, the UK is giving notice that it intends to leave. It is as simple as that. All it actually triggers is that negotiations can take place, and that is only because the EU have said they will not commence until then - in theory, and what could have happened is the government have given its notice of intent the day after the referendum.

 

There will be zero to scrutinize at that point. Likewise it is not reasonable at this very early stage to ask the government to put the details to parliament as 1, that would be incredibly stupid before going into negotiations and 2, there is no way of knowing what the deal will be until it is finalized which could be in many years time - article 50 says 2 years but extendable indefinitely. There will certainly be nothing to tell parliament in March as negotiations would not have even begun. May could tell parliament anything, but as it is not agreed with the other side, it is pointless

I don't agree, I cannot see any other European country agreeing to leave such negotiations in the hands of a small cabal in its govt without agreeing what its actions were to be and agreeing what it was seeking to achieve in "Principle".

The approach that is being taken is one of seeming to expect opposition to any proposals that UK suggests it wants from these negotiations and is posited on believing that there will be a better deal to be wrung out of the EU the more obdurate we are, this is the way that we have always approached our membership of the EU, I am of the opinion that if we approach the negotiations from that stance the EU will simply put the shutters up and say you have decided to leave, then leave and we will negotiate trade deals afterwards.

 

The argument about imbalance of trade may be met with a gallic shrug, they simply cannot afford negotiations which make us a special case because that will embolden the extreme right in Europe and they are causing problems in Poland and Hungary already and France, Holland, Denmark Belgium and Germany cannot fight a renewed extreme right and I believe know this is a pivotal moment in the fight against the populist right embodied in Farage and Trump .

[VERYSTORMY]

I don't agree, I cannot see any other European country agreeing to leave such negotiations in the hands of a small cabal in its govt without agreeing what its actions were to be and agreeing what it was seeking to achieve in "Principle".

The approach that is being taken is one of seeming to expect opposition to any proposals that UK suggests it wants from these negotiations and is posited on believing that there will be a better deal to be wrung out of the EU the more obdurate we are, this is the way that we have always approached our membership of the EU, I am of the opinion that if we approach the negotiations from that stance the EU will simply put the shutters up and say you have decided to leave, then leave and we will negotiate trade deals afterwards.

 

The argument about imbalance of trade may be met with a gallic shrug, they simply cannot afford negotiations which make us a special case because that will embolden the extreme right in Europe and they are causing problems in Poland and Hungary already and France, Holland, Denmark Belgium and Germany cannot fight a renewed extreme right and I believe know this is a pivotal moment in the fight against the populist right embodied in Farage and Trump .

 

First, there are no negotiations until article 50, second, the EU has no say in when we trigger or in under what circumstances, third, yes, I think we will approach with a degree of expected hostility, as I think it is likely that the EU will be hostile no mater what is offered by the UK. Junker and his clowns of already pretty much said this.

 

The reality is, Germany and France have elections next year - long before any negotiations are going to be concluded and the parties to the right may have taken the lead in both countries by then. But, even if not, personally, as I have said, I support a hard Brexit and actually see little to negotiate about. In fact, I think it would be highly beneficial to force a hard Brexit and watch the EU come asking us for a deal later when they see EU economies struggling as if there is anything that empowers the far right and gains them support in France and Germany it is tough economic times.

[newjez]

First, there are no negotiations until article 50, second, the EU has no say in when we trigger or in under what circumstances, third, yes, I think we will approach with a degree of expected hostility, as I think it is likely that the EU will be hostile no mater what is offered by the UK. Junker and his clowns of already pretty much said this.

 

The reality is, Germany and France have elections next year - long before any negotiations are going to be concluded and the parties to the right may have taken the lead in both countries by then. But, even if not, personally, as I have said, I support a hard Brexit and actually see little to negotiate about. In fact, I think it would be highly beneficial to force a hard Brexit and watch the EU come asking us for a deal later when they see EU economies struggling as if there is anything that empowers the far right and gains them support in France and Germany it is tough economic times.

Fortunately that is looking unlikely now. But at least you'll have the advantage in years to come, whatever events the UK faces, of being able to moan, 'if only we had done a hard brexit none of this would have happened'. Sometimes it's better if the dream doesn't become a reality.

[newjez]

I think the daily mail has out done themselves. It's pretty hard to go lower than the Sun, but boy have they managed it. Disgusting.

[BacktoDemocracy]

First, there are no negotiations until article 50, second, the EU has no say in when we trigger or in under what circumstances, third, yes, I think we will approach with a degree of expected hostility, as I think it is likely that the EU will be hostile no mater what is offered by the UK. Junker and his clowns of already pretty much said this.

 

The reality is, Germany and France have elections next year - long before any negotiations are going to be concluded and the parties to the right may have taken the lead in both countries by then. But, even if not, personally, as I have said, I support a hard Brexit and actually see little to negotiate about. In fact, I think it would be highly beneficial to force a hard Brexit and watch the EU come asking us for a deal later when they see EU economies struggling as if there is anything that empowers the far right and gains them support in France and Germany it is tough economic times.

If you start from a presumption that they are clowns and from that I assume you would treat them like clowns then I think they are not going to negotiate at all.

I think that attitude epitomises what I said was driving the whole brexit campaign which is a sense of superiority based on a false believe in our relative worth in the world.

We lost an Empire and have ever since been trying to find our place in the world and there are still those who believe we can still recapture that pomp and glory when the truth is we are a small country still trying to rule the world, tonight Fallon defence secretary announces the construction of, I think, 22 warships, how do we afford that when the social provision simply cannot keep up with the aging population and the NHS is starting to creak but we have to keep up the pretence that we are a world power, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany and France were all colonial powers who seem to have moved on and now consentrate on making a new world rather than constantly looking backwards.

[VERYSTORMY]

If you start from a presumption that they are clowns and from that I assume you would treat them like clowns then I think they are not going to negotiate at all.

I think that attitude epitomises what I said was driving the whole brexit campaign which is a sense of superiority based on a false believe in our relative worth in the world.

We lost an Empire and have ever since been trying to find our place in the world and there are still those who believe we can still recapture that pomp and glory when the truth is we are a small country still trying to rule the world, tonight Fallon defence secretary announces the construction of, I think, 22 warships, how do we afford that when the social provision simply cannot keep up with the aging population and the NHS is starting to creak but we have to keep up the pretence that we are a world power, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany and France were all colonial powers who seem to have moved on and now consentrate on making a new world rather than constantly looking backwards.

 

I don't think we are trying to pretend to be anything we are not. We are the 5/6 (depending on measurement) biggest economy in the world. We are one of the largest military powers, we are a permanent member of the security council, a G7 nation and one of the most respected nations on the planet.

 

it is not a sense of superiority. It is superiority and it is a bit sad that as a Brit you don't believe that.

 

I have worked / lived in a lot of the world and the U.K. Is far more respected and admired than I think you appreciate. As for the NHS, that is another debate, but, I think if you took the entire GDP of the USA and Chine combined and gave it to the NHS there would still be complaints of under funding.

[VERYSTORMY]

Fortunately that is looking unlikely now. But at least you'll have the advantage in years to come, whatever events the UK faces, of being able to moan, 'if only we had done a hard brexit none of this would have happened'. Sometimes it's better if the dream doesn't become a reality.

 

Actually, I think a hard brexit is the most likely outcome.

[newjez]

I don't think we are trying to pretend to be anything we are not. We are the 5/6 (depending on measurement) biggest economy in the world. We are one of the largest military powers, we are a permanent member of the security council, a G7 nation and one of the most respected nations on the planet.

 

it is not a sense of superiority. It is superiority and it is a bit sad that as a Brit you don't believe that.

 

I have worked / lived in a lot of the world and the U.K. Is far more respected and admired than I think you appreciate. As for the NHS, that is another debate, but, I think if you took the entire GDP of the USA and Chine combined and gave it to the NHS there would still be complaints of under funding.

actually, for all his failings, it was doing quite well under Blair. It can work well if it is not starved of funds and governed by an idiot.

[newjez]

 

Actually, I think a hard brexit is the most likely outcome.

glad you think that but it's an impossibility now.

[Gbye grey sky]

I don't think we are trying to pretend to be anything we are not. We are the 5/6 (depending on measurement) biggest economy in the world. We are one of the largest military powers, we are a permanent member of the security council, a G7 nation and one of the most respected nations on the planet.

 

it is not a sense of superiority. It is superiority and it is a bit sad that as a Brit you don't believe that.

 

I have worked / lived in a lot of the world and the U.K. Is far more respected and admired than I think you appreciate. As for the NHS, that is another debate, but, I think if you took the entire GDP of the USA and Chine combined and gave it to the NHS there would still be complaints of under funding.

 

I think that living in the UK has affected your perspective. The most common and widely held view outside of Britain seems to be that the UK is crazy to leave the EU (much as they believe the USA would be crazy to elect Trump).

 

FWIW I believe you are right that, regardless of political machinations in the UK, a hard Brexit is the far more likely outcome. This has the potential to do the most damage to a UK economy (which, lets face it, was doing pretty well in the EU) and afford the most benefit for the EU.

 

It would be really bad news for the future of the EU if the UK were to flourish after leaving and the reverse would act as a major deterrent to further disintegration. I would be amazed if this divorce did not end in acrimony. How an acrimonious relationship with Europe can be deemed a good outcome anyway I cannot imagine.

 

The UK may be able to navigate a path to future prosperity alone but the risks are greater and, at the end of the day, I cannot see why a sensible person would consider that the potential reward was ever worth this level of risk. To me it is like betting the house that you love, at very poor odds, for the chance of gaining a nice TV for the living room.

[Gbye grey sky]

glad you think that but it's an impossibility now.

 

Why would you say that? If the EU block any proposals that allow the UK to remain in the single market then a Hard Brexit is inevitable. There is a growing body of opinion in the EU favouring a hard Brexit which would render the UK's stance irrelevant.

[Perthbum]

You need to put a little faith in the people running this country. How can you go so quickly from rapture to despair? There's a name for that.

Yes,reality.

[bunbury61]

I think that living in the UK has affected your perspective. The most common and widely held view outside of Britain seems to be that the UK is crazy to leave the EU (much as they believe the USA would be crazy to elect Trump).

 

FWIW I believe you are right that, regardless of political machinations in the UK, a hard Brexit is the far more likely outcome. This has the potential to do the most damage to a UK economy (which, lets face it, was doing pretty well in the EU) and afford the most benefit for the EU.

 

It would be really bad news for the future of the EU if the UK were to flourish after leaving and the reverse would act as a major deterrent to further disintegration. I would be amazed if this divorce did not end in acrimony. How an acrimonious relationship with Europe can be deemed a good outcome anyway I cannot imagine.

 

The UK may be able to navigate a path to future prosperity alone but the risks are greater and, at the end of the day, I cannot see why a sensible person would consider that the potential reward was ever worth this level of risk. To me it is like betting the house that you love, at very poor odds, for the chance of gaining a nice TV for the living room.

 

The bed thing that the u.s can do tobsave their country is elect Donald trump ....some of you clowns are bloating yourselves on the bullahit you are being fed .

Hillary is up to neck in it .

Get yourself an education ...go online ...julian assange with john pilger .

They have the emails that nail her .

I cannot believe you are buying all the bullshit ..

The media ...washington ...wall at

[Quokka2005]

Someone is trump obsessed..

[Slean Wolfhead]

I don't think we are trying to pretend to be anything we are not. We are the 5/6 (depending on measurement) biggest economy in the world. We are one of the largest military powers, we are a permanent member of the security council, a G7 nation and one of the most respected nations on the planet.

 

it is not a sense of superiority. It is superiority and it is a bit sad that as a Brit you don't believe that.

 

I have worked / lived in a lot of the world and the U.K. Is far more respected and admired than I think you appreciate. As for the NHS, that is another debate, but, I think if you took the entire GDP of the USA and Chine combined and gave it to the NHS there would still be complaints of under funding.

 

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/britain-s-economic-future-will-be-decided-home?utm_source=Chatham%20House&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=7709539_CH%20Newsletter%20-%2004.11.2016&utm_content=Britain-Title&dm_i=1S3M,4L8PV,NUT248,H1REC,1#sthash.v37d4o2z.uxfs

[Fisher1]

And when the government win their appeal as most experts say they will, that is democracy....the people voted to leave... no ifs...no buts...

 

Well of course it is.

[bunbury61]

Someone is trump obsessed..

 

Whatever ...but I cant believe so many so called articulate people are taken in by the bullshit ...its almost blairesque

[Slean Wolfhead]

Just seen this pronouncement by Suzanne Evans , a leadership contender for UKIP, "How dare these activist judges attempt to overturn our will. It's a power grab and undermines democracy. Time we had the right to sack them."

Sounds like it came straight out of a Jack and Jill Nuremberg speeches handbook.

Where do these people come from, frightening or what!!!

 

It's a marker to the kind of people that have been created in the last 30 years. They don't understand the meaning of words, laws processes, education ; they don't even know how their own country works or how it came to be.

But they want it back instead of something else they don't understand.

 

It's been well known since Victorian times, even in the richest of societies when Britain was fabulously rich, that around 20% of any population just didn't bother.

They've always been there, but they were safely ignored as they know little about anything and contribute nothing more than labour to put food on the table and beer in their belly. A malleable workforce that could be used as an engine.

 

The difference in the last 10 years is that with the internet and explosion in media and ways to link up information, these voices are being heard and they self-perpetuate in an echo chamber of moronic bullshit and despair. There is no use for their engine anymore, the future is in technology and robotics where humans will be less needed. So what happens to a growing world population, what do they do and how do they survive?

 

None of these people have got the ability, intelligence or skills to take on a job like the one that's coming. Truth and fact isn't important, the media have become a biased mob of opinion promoters, rather than news reporters. They're completely successful because they know a huge part of the population haven't got the intelligence or education to make sense of the truth anymore and will just follow slogans.

What they're calling for anarchy, because that is all they can imagine with the knowledge at their disposal.

 

Maybe they're right. The old rules don't apply because the world and information age has changed everything. Capitalism is eating democracy and it's happening in more countries than the UK. The countries where they've decided that not everybody needs to be educated are the ones that are suffering the most, because they never expected that these baying disenfranchised mobs could ever mobilise into groups that had power. The internet, greed and the inability to keep down the poorest has changed all that. Maybe it's just destiny?

Maybe people like Trump have read the tea leaves better?

[BacktoDemocracy]

Whatever ...but I cant believe so many so called articulate people are taken in by the bullshit ...its almost blairesque

Similarly I cannot believe that anyone would be so naive as to believe that a man with such a thin skin and a penchant for fantasies about how important he is to the world and sexual fantasies about women is suitable to be in charge of the largest arsenal in the world, what would he do when Putin didn't love him or the EU tell him his proposals are unacceptable, his deranged finger would be straight on the button.

We might live to see the first US president sent to a mental hospital.

[Gbye grey sky]

It's a marker to the kind of people that have been created in the last 30 years. They don't understand the meaning of words, laws processes, education ; they don't even know how their own country works or how it came to be.

But they want it back instead of something else they don't understand.

 

It's been well known since Victorian times, even in the richest of societies when Britain was fabulously rich, that around 20% of any population just didn't bother.

They've always been there, but they were safely ignored as they know little about anything and contribute nothing more than labour to put food on the table and beer in their belly. A malleable workforce that could be used as an engine.

 

The difference in the last 10 years is that with the internet and explosion in media and ways to link up information, these voices are being heard and they self-perpetuate in an echo chamber of moronic bullshit and despair. There is no use for their engine anymore, the future is in technology and robotics where humans will be less needed. So what happens to a growing world population, what do they do and how do they survive?

 

None of these people have got the ability, intelligence or skills to take on a job like the one that's coming. Truth and fact isn't important, the media have become a biased mob of opinion promoters, rather than news reporters. They're completely successful because they know a huge part of the population haven't got the intelligence or education to make sense of the truth anymore and will just follow slogans.

What they're calling for anarchy, because that is all they can imagine with the knowledge at their disposal.

 

Maybe they're right. The old rules don't apply because the world and information age has changed everything. Capitalism is eating democracy and it's happening in more countries than the UK. The countries where they've decided that not everybody needs to be educated are the ones that are suffering the most, because they never expected that these baying disenfranchised mobs could ever mobilise into groups that had power. The internet, greed and the inability to keep down the poorest has changed all that. Maybe it's just destiny?

Maybe people like Trump have read the tea leaves better?

 

Well said. Once the mob truly does rule the roost I suspect that, for all the glaring inequalities of the early 21st century, we will see the alternative is actually far worse for all.

[newjez]

Hi

The bed thing that the u.s can do tobsave their country is elect Donald trump ....some of you clowns are bloating yourselves on the bullahit you are being fed .

Hillary is up to neck in it .

Get yourself an education ...go online ...julian assange with john pilger .

They have the emails that nail her .

I cannot believe you are buying all the bullshit ..

The media ...washington ...wall at

this broadcast has been temporarily suspended by the Clinton secret police.

[Gbye grey sky]

Hi this broadcast has been temporarily suspended by the Clinton secret police.

 

Nah, I think his brain exploded while typing. :laugh:

[newjez]

 

Why would you say that? If the EU block any proposals that allow the UK to remain in the single market then a Hard Brexit is inevitable. There is a growing body of opinion in the EU favouring a hard Brexit which would render the UK's stance irrelevant.

then we would have to withdraw article 50, or have another referendum. I don't see what an election would achieve, but we would probably have that as well. Hard brexit is no longer an option, unless the people specifically vote for it. Edited November 4, 2016 by newjez