John from Moneycorp

Brexit – what happens next?

33 posts in this topic

Brexit – what happens next?

 

Comment by John Kinghorn from Moneycorp

 

So after the hype and hysteria all year, the vote has come and gone. In June, the UK voted to leave the EU by 52% to 48%. Leave won the majority of votes in Wales and England - every council in Scotland saw Remain majorities. The result was unexpected by a lot of people and shocked the financial markets. As a result the pound weakened considerably against all currencies.

 

Further to the result, David Cameron officially resigned as the UK Prime Minister causing political instability. With the Labour party also in crisis there was a political vacuum at a time when the country most needed to show leadership.

 

The combination of the Referendum result and the resignation of David Cameron causes major worries and the pound has remained largely much weaker against the Australian dollar. This leads us to the question, the majority of people have voted for Brexit so what happens next?

 

Following the result, the only certainty has been the uncertainty. And uncertainty is never good for the financial markets. Theresa May becoming Prime Minister this week has helped provide some degree of stability but many unanswered questions remain which we currently don’t the answers to, some of these key questions are below.

 

· When and will we trigger Article 50 to formally notify the EU that the UK is leaving?

· Will we still have access to the single market?

· What does Brexit really mean for the UK economy?

· Will it affect the UK’s standing in the world?

· Will Scotland hold another Independence Referendum?

 

All these questions are important because they affect businesses in the UK and how they can plan ahead – also for investment in the UK from other countries it’s important the message is that we genuinely are still open for business. What happens next will also affect the exchange and the pound against the Australian dollar.

 

If you need to transfer money overseas?

In this climate of change and uncertainty, if you need to transfer money to or from Australia, it is more important than ever to speak to an expert foreign exchange company.

 

Exchange experts moneycorp can provide free expert guidance and information on the exchange rates - they offer competitive exchange rates, often beating the banks by up to 4%. Importantly they also provide expert guidance on when to transfer your money. As the exchange rate is always moving this is an important feature which can help you to save money.

 

You can register for a free moneycorp account by clicking here. Once registered you will have your own account manager who can discuss your money transfer requirements in detail.

 

Find out more information on the Poms in Oz currency zone- http://moneytransfer.pomsinoz.com/

 

Please mention Poms in Oz when contacting moneycorp for free transfer fees.

Edited by John from Moneycorp

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Australia has called for a free trade deal with Britain following its exit from the European Union - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36818055

 

Few stories in the papers on possible trade deals - in reality, some of these deals can take years to discuss and formalise so will be interesting to see what actually happens.

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With little in the way of political news or economic data to influence its state yesterday, sterling was net unchanged – for once post Brexit – on average, against the other dozen most actively-traded currencies.

 

In fact it has been the Australian and New Zealand dollars that have been the weakest performers so far this week, both falling by -0.7%. In each case it is the prospect of lower interest rates that has led investors to mark them down.

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Hi all

 

Very uncertain time at the moment, few things to watch out for.

 

Possible interest rate cut in the UK on the 4th august – if this were to happen then it would weaken the pound. However it has been fairly clearly signalled from the bank of England so the market is expecting it, so the impact is not likely to be significant unless the bank leaves the door open to further interest rate cuts or further quantitative easing in the future during their press conference.

 

Possible interest rate cut in Australia on Tuesday next week – the inflation figures released from Australia this week still show that inflation is below the RBA’s target so there is a chance that they could cut interest rates next week or in the coming months if inflation hasn’t picked up.

 

UK growth figures later this year – despite yesterday’s GDP figures showing UK growth picked up in Q2 it relates to a time before the Brexit decision and therefore largely ignored by the currency markets, there is speculation about the UK going into recession later this year, however if a recession is avoided then the pound could move higher.

 

Brexit – article 50 won’t be triggered until next year at the earliest. If this is the case then there is still a lack of clarity over our trading position – this doesn’t help some businesses to plan ahead. Generally negative for the pound.

 

What can you do if you need to transfer money to or from Australia?

 

Discuss your options with a Moneycorp account manager – eg market orders. They will go through your timeframe and the amounts you are looking to transfer to help you try and achieve the best exchange rate.

 

Visit here for how we can help - http://moneytransfer.pomsinoz.com/

 

Hope this helps.

 

Thanks

 

John

Edited by John from Moneycorp

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An interesting summation though what is not mentioned is the role of Parliament in ratifying any deal. There is a clear minority of MPs in favour of Brexit anyway so I would expect that they would favour remaining in the single market even without any significant gain on immigration. It seems inconceivable that a clean break from Europe would get majority backing in the Commons so a general election would be triggered.

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An interesting summation though what is not mentioned is the role of Parliament in ratifying any deal. There is a clear minority of MPs in favour of Brexit anyway so I would expect that they would favour remaining in the single market even without any significant gain on immigration. It seems inconceivable that a clean break from Europe would get majority backing in the Commons so a general election would be triggered.

 

True, if they do go down the route of parliament then it could raise further uncertainties.

 

In relation to the questions I raises in my initial post at the start of the thread, there are not many answers yet.

 

· When and will we trigger Article 50 to formally notify the EU that the UK is leaving?

· Will we still have access to the single market? (membership)

· What does Brexit really mean for the UK economy?

· Will it affect the UK’s standing in the world?

· Will Scotland hold another Independence Referendum?

 

Liam Fox yesterday giving his view on the single market but is it the Government view? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/29/liam-fox-signals-britain-will-leave-the-single-market-in-hard-br/

Edited by John from Moneycorp

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Brexit – what happens next?

 

Comment by John Kinghorn from Moneycorp

 

So after the hype and hysteria all year, the vote has come and gone. In June, the UK voted to leave the EU by 52% to 48%. Leave won the majority of votes in Wales and England - every council in Scotland saw Remain majorities. The result was unexpected by a lot of people and shocked the financial markets. As a result the pound weakened considerably against all currencies.

 

Further to the result, David Cameron officially resigned as the UK Prime Minister causing political instability. With the Labour party also in crisis there was a political vacuum at a time when the country most needed to show leadership.

 

The combination of the Referendum result and the resignation of David Cameron causes major worries and the pound has remained largely much weaker against the Australian dollar. This leads us to the question, the majority of people have voted for Brexit so what happens next?

 

Following the result, the only certainty has been the uncertainty. And uncertainty is never good for the financial markets. Theresa May becoming Prime Minister this week has helped provide some degree of stability but many unanswered questions remain which we currently don’t the answers to, some of these key questions are below.

 

· When and will we trigger Article 50 to formally notify the EU that the UK is leaving?

· Will we still have access to the single market?

· What does Brexit really mean for the UK economy?

· Will it affect the UK’s standing in the world?

· Will Scotland hold another Independence Referendum?

 

All these questions are important because they affect businesses in the UK and how they can plan ahead – also for investment in the UK from other countries it’s important the message is that we genuinely are still open for business. What happens next will also affect the exchange and the pound against the Australian dollar.

 

If you need to transfer money overseas?

In this climate of change and uncertainty, if you need to transfer money to or from Australia, it is more important than ever to speak to an expert foreign exchange company.

 

Exchange experts moneycorp can provide free expert guidance and information on the exchange rates - they offer competitive exchange rates, often beating the banks by up to 4%. Importantly they also provide expert guidance on when to transfer your money. As the exchange rate is always moving this is an important feature which can help you to save money.

 

You can register for a free moneycorp account by clicking here. Once registered you will have your own account manager who can discuss your money transfer requirements in detail.

 

Find out more information on the Poms in Oz currency zone- http://moneytransfer.pomsinoz.com/

 

Please mention Poms in Oz when contacting moneycorp for free transfer fees.

 

As the year comes to a close, we still have a lot of unanswered questions which I initially raised - 2017 may or may not bring some more clarity and answers. Let's wait and see!

Edited by John from Moneycorp

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I suspect he was pushed, and probably rightly. There have been a lot of statements from his office that are very political in the last few months. That is not the job of a civil servant. He didn't particularly cover himself in glory either in the negotiations arranged pre Brexit

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Wow. Leaving the Single Market...

 

I wonder will an Aussie Style Visa Process be put in place (down the line).

 

B

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