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Harpodom

Trump in big trouble?

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unpopular with 70% of women....that's even worse than me in my 20's with a belly full of Stella!


My Brain Hurts!

 

 

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unpopular with 70% of women....that's even worse than me in my 20's with a belly full of Stella!

 

You mean you weren't always the babe - magnet that you've become in your 40's? :wink:

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They have been writing that for 6 months, but the voters haven't taken any notice.


I want it all, and I want it now.

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And Hillary's support among non-whites has collapsed. Come on Bernie! David Lynch just endorsed Bernie, which is something I like!


She'll be right!

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They have been writing that for 6 months, but the voters haven't taken any notice.

 

It might help if you read the article, that might help you understand the trouble he is in among those voters who aren't conservative white males like yourself.


My Brain Hurts!

 

 

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The problem is statistically some of those groups are less likely to vote, plus the voting system there is a shambles and non compulsory.

 

Yeah, but.....70% of women?


My Brain Hurts!

 

 

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You mean you weren't always the babe - magnet that you've become in your 40's? :wink:

 

Nah mate, I'm only mildly repulsive to the laaaaaaaaadies these days, which is a big improvement on my appeal as a youf!


My Brain Hurts!

 

 

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Trump's silly antics are providing lots of amusement for those of us who expected another boring US election campaign, but none of us would be laughing if he actually won.

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they have been writing that for 6 months, but the voters haven't taken any notice.

ooohhhh but they have, trump is now 12/1 to be president, in other words.....no chance,


Drinking rum before 11am does not make you an alcoholic, it makes you pirate..

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They have been writing that for 6 months, but the voters haven't taken any notice.

 

The voters have taken plenty of notice. The registered supporters of GOP who vote in primary elections might not have. That's what a disapproval rating in the high 60s means

 

This is the classic mistake the populist right always makes: They convince themselves they speak for a "silent majority" and if only people weren't censored or prevented from speaking their minds, then nearly everyone would think and/or vote like them - or certainly enough to return such a populist conservative candidate to office.

 

This PoV is born from a misconception though - the misconception being that the populist right IS stifled or prevented from speaking its mind. It isn't; it speaks its mind loudly and incessantly. The only things it is genuinely unable to say are outright racist or inciteful statements/posts/speeches/whatever, but as there's a small minority of people who really want to do that, the bulk of people are allowed to say exactly what they like.

 

What they mean is, they are prevented from saying or writing what they think without being challenged on it. News just in, not everyone is of the same opinion, particularly on the contentious issues that surround nationality and migration that this group is so concerned with. These people don't speak for a silent majority - they speak for a substantial minority. And the louder and more strident they get, the more they turn people off who aren't in their minority and provoke them to vote negatively/tactically, to keep out the populist right candidate, whatever the alternative. We saw this in Britain in the noughties - Tories behind in the polls, two party leaders in succession (Hague and Howard) were seduced by populist cheerleaders in the press that if they turned to the right and went hard on immigration etc they could get the election over the line - and in both cases they saw their polls dip in the last knockings of the campaign and the election was lost, because it turned off swing voters who saw it as confirmation that the Tories were the "nasty" party. In 2010 Cameron resisted this pressure to turn right even though the press were still pushing for it, and got in, just. Obviously there were other factors at work in these three polls but turning right didn't unlock a hidden pool of populist voters, it did the reverse.

 

It seems this is happening with the Trump campaign. Always dangerous predicting elections months out, but it's hard to see how someone who has spent so much campaign time on stances that are going to play really badly with most ethnic communities, and who appears to be widely disliked by a big chunk of the female population, can get in. It doesn't matter how popular you are with white working/lower middle class men if that constituency is only about 20-25% of the electorate, you've got too much ground to make up elsewhere.

Edited by northshorepom

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I fully expect a concerted effort from within the Republican Party that will divert support away from Trump. Trump is increasingly a liability and fragmenting the traditional Republican Party into two increasingly hostile camps.

 

Once it was the Left that tore themselves apart through splintering into factions. The Right appeared to have learnt very well how not to run an election by following suite and something hardly confined to America either.

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