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JockinTas

Australian housing bubble

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It doesn't mean prices will fall.

 

I was just reading a report saying Melbourne is the most overvalued housing market in Australia.

 

However, it is expected to stagnate for a few years, not fall.

 

http://www.domain.com.au/news/melbourne-is-the-countrys-most-overvalued-market-corelogicmoodys-analytics-20160225-gn3ga0/

 

No it is not. Far from it. Seek out research and comment not industry opinion. If you want to know the truth and not delusion of course. May make you feel better but just not reliant.

I guess people will never admit to their mistakes. Aussies will no doubt big up their 'wonderful' housing market until their heads explode.

 

Australian real estate is way overpriced however one wants to look at it. Just as the people are way over leveraged. No worries though, keep reading industry reports to put your mind at rest. At least until the explosion, which lets face it looks incurably more likely by the month.

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Yes it is, very very grim. Thats why everyone else should stay in the sunny south east. Keeps our houses affordable! :smile:

 

Not half as grim as Australian Real Estate is looking though...

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No it is not. Far from it. Seek out research and comment not industry opinion. If you want to know the truth and not delusion of course. May make you feel better but just not reliant.

I guess people will never admit to their mistakes. Aussies will no doubt big up their 'wonderful' housing market until their heads explode.

 

Australian real estate is way overpriced however one wants to look at it. Just as the people are way over leveraged. No worries though, keep reading industry reports to put your mind at rest. At least until the explosion, which lets face it looks incurably more likely by the month.

 

did you read the report ?


I want it all, and I want it now.

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The programme focussed almost exclusively on a mining boomtown so those examples cannot easily be extrapolated to the whole country.

 

It is not only cities way over priced but larger country towns as well. Every city in in the Anglo speaking world under 100,000 people and house prices 5 times median wage is to be found in Australia.

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did you read the report ?

 

Yes the usual head in sand stuff with prices still rising. The question should be is it too late for a managed decline in prices, which should have happened years ago, or will vested interests, politicians included, allow the bubble to further grow, putting the financial system at risk?

A 30% correction, would likely be catastrophic for the system. But that is likely the conservative estimate of how inflated the market is.

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Emotional link rather than a reality gripped market

 

Let them eat at Bunning's

 

Farms are going cheaper and cheaper - great time to start looking (Bench marking) and getting ready to buy

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It doesn't mean prices will fall.

 

I was just reading a report saying Melbourne is the most overvalued housing market in Australia.

 

However, it is expected to stagnate for a few years, not fall.

 

http://www.domain.com.au/news/melbourne-is-the-countrys-most-overvalued-market-corelogicmoodys-analytics-20160225-gn3ga0/

 

 

 

Stagnation is a fall in real terms. You could argue whether it's better for 30% fall or ten years stagnation.

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Emotional link rather than a reality gripped market

 

Let them eat at Bunning's

 

Farms are going cheaper and cheaper - great time to start looking (Bench marking) and getting ready to buy

 

You would have to know what you were doing getting involved with farms. Hardly an occupation for the faint hearted, with so much economic distress, drought, suicides and mental anguish involved.

 

There will be considerable resistance to the lowering of prices. The industry is pretty much dug in from my experience and doesn't want to budge. I put a bid of a substantial amount in just over a week ago with the agent point blank refusing to go to the vendor with my offer.

Sadly the Under Offer sign went up two days ago. There are more than a few mugs around perfectly willing still to pay over the top.

 

Something certainly has to give. Inner City locations here in Perth, though slowing are still going for a substantial inflated price.

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Even here in little old Devonport there are a couple of houses near us which have been on the market for over 2 years for just over $1,000,000 :shocked: I really don't think anybody will pay anywhere near that price but the owners are obviously living in hope.


Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take but by the moments that take our breath away :smile:

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Stagnation is a fall in real terms. You could argue whether it's better for 30% fall or ten years stagnation.

 

Personally I would prefer a 30 to 40% fall across the board. It will clear the decks and allow First Time Home Buyers into the market and smash speculators. Housing should never be a speculative tool anyway. Those wanting to sell to move to a bigger/smaller place can't lose, as prices would fall simultaneously.

 

Just how the over exposed banks would manage, or the considerable number, that fell under the spell of snake charmers on over leveraging themselves, at times by being encouraged to give false info into finance, will be any ones business.

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Inflation is 2% approx.

 

A few years when housing prices stay at their current levels will hardly be noticed.

 

A large fall won't happen as there is no prospect of interest rates rising for years.


I want it all, and I want it now.

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Even here in little old Devonport there are a couple of houses near us which have been on the market for over 2 years for just over $1,000,000 :shocked: I really don't think anybody will pay anywhere near that price but the owners are obviously living in hope.

Pretty much the same in country cities. I have been looking at Albany WA, and heading off down there on Saturday . Most stuff over $500,000 and much rather considerably so. A number close to or over the one million mark. Insane. Bad for the nation. For people and longer term for the housing industry. It should have been spiked years back. Thing being of course very little work in a city that size, and not well paying generally.

Bring it on is all I can say.

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Inflation is 2% approx.

 

A few years when housing prices stay at their current levels will hardly be noticed.

 

A large fall won't happen as there is no prospect of interest rates rising for years.

 

It doesn't even matter if interest rates stay as they are. They may well decline in a clueless attempt to look to be doing something which will only aggravate the problem and bubble to gigantic proportions. It would prolong the illusion obviously. Be kinder to raise interest rates really, reward saving and reduce casino speculation. How about spending money we have got or at least afford rather than further Ponzi speculation?

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The first one is nice, as for the second one, it takes a special talent to make a house that looks so good on the outside and make it so crap on the inside!!!


Jeremy Corbyn on the EU  " A European bureaucracy totally unaccountable to anybody"

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Yes the usual head in sand stuff with prices still rising. The question should be is it too late for a managed decline in prices, which should have happened years ago, or will vested interests, politicians included, allow the bubble to further grow, putting the financial system at risk?

A 30% correction, would likely be catastrophic for the system. But that is likely the conservative estimate of how inflated the market is.

 

Can you make that happen now? A 30% fall and I will buy in a premium Brisbane suburb tomorrow. I'm sure i'm not the only one...

 

The people who will get hit hard are the really high end property or those way out in the burbs. Those buying in middle ring suburbs will never fall 30% there just isn't the prospect for that level of unemployment or lack of demand.

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House prices not doing much here in Adelaide! Perhaps all the first time buyers should buy here....


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Tut tut Flag, have you learned nothing in your time in Australia, OK house prices high, unemployment on the rise, wage growth low and growth in the economy below the long term average, but this is Straya, it's not like the rest of the world, she'll be right mate.


Jeremy Corbyn on the EU  " A European bureaucracy totally unaccountable to anybody"

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Tut tut Flag, have you learned nothing in your time in Australia, OK house prices high, unemployment on the rise, wage growth low and growth in the economy below the long term average, but this is Straya, it's not like the rest of the world, she'll be right mate.

 

Struth yeh. I can be a complete Galah at times. In Straylia well known fact prices double every seven years. What was I thinking?

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Can you make that happen now? A 30% fall and I will buy in a premium Brisbane suburb tomorrow. I'm sure i'm not the only one...

 

The people who will get hit hard are the really high end property or those way out in the burbs. Those buying in middle ring suburbs will never fall 30% there just isn't the prospect for that level of unemployment or lack of demand.

 

Did I hear never??? Really. Just who is going to be buying all this way over priced real estate in time when changes are forces on the Ponzi system in place? Multi millionaires flipping to one another at ever expensive prices. Sadly the charade can indeed be prolonged, by outside intervention. The trifecta of Government/Real Estate/ Financial Industry are certainly in a position to drag it out. Just means the pieces will be that much greater when the House of Cards does fall.

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You are dreaming if you think houses are dropping by 30% in any of the inner city established suburbs. Only ones that could come close are the new boxy apartments. I love how extreme you hey flag, the longer Australia goes without a recession the more extreme your position seems to get.

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You are dreaming if you think houses are dropping by 30% in any of the inner city established suburbs. Only ones that could come close are the new boxy apartments. I love how extreme you hey flag, the longer Australia goes without a recession the more extreme your position seems to get.

 

And the longer you remain in Australia to more you may just learn about it. I expect you were in short trousers during the last recession experienced.

I have obviously no idea how much house prices will fall. Probably 50% over priced in certain areas. The government hand in hand with Real Estate, Banks, Insurance and other vested interests, may well stall needed correction. Anyway that considers things are carry on indefinitely how it is going is crackers. Nothing extreme in that reasoning. Plenty though in continuing the housing sham that is very scary.

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OK from today they are going down 30% in inner Sydney Melbourne or Brisbane? Whens this happening by? Let me know I've got my 20% deposit ready to go in any top Brisbane suburb... Shame you are wrong that would be awesome! Keep shorting!

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OK from today they are going down 30% in inner Sydney Melbourne or Brisbane? Whens this happening by? Let me know I've got my 20% deposit ready to go in any top Brisbane suburb... Shame you are wrong that would be awesome! Keep shorting!

 

You really have no idea. Obviously prime Sydney locations will hold out longer. A word from the wise. The falls in Perth have been greatest among some of the most pricy locations. Obviously far flung, outer burbs will get burnt worse, but anyhow stick around for the ride.

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You really have no idea. Obviously prime Sydney locations will hold out longer. A word from the wise. The falls in Perth have been greatest among some of the most pricy locations. Obviously far flung, outer burbs will get burnt worse, but anyhow stick around for the ride.

 

You are the clueless one but OK...

 

Notice you didn't put a time line. So no doubt you will say it again in 5 years after it has risen again. Bit weird how much you have invested in a downturn! But good luck with that...

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