Fewer People want to live in Australia

[Guest The Pom Queen]

As Australia's mining-investment boom winds down, the central bank has been relying on a steady flow of new migrants to boost the economy -- a stimulant most developed nations lack.

But the country's appeal is now waning as wages stagnate and its jobless rate climbs above the US level. The population is on track for the slowest growth in nine years -- a danger signal for an already faltering economy.

"It's another challenge for policy makers already struggling with a difficult situation," said James McIntyre, head of economic research at Macquarie Group and a former Treasury official. "On the monetary policy side, it really amps up the pressure."

 

An expanding population and record-low interest rates are lynchpins for the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecast that growth will pick up to its long-run average of about 3 per cent. Without rising ranks of new workers to boost consumption and buy the growing number of newly constructed houses, the economy's recovery is that much trickier.

Australia's population growth slowed to 1.4 per cent in 2014 -- double the average of countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development but down from 1.8 per cent two years earlier. The slowdown is at odds with the RBA's May forecast for a 1.7 per cent gain in working-age population this year.

"This suggests the Australian economy will likely fall short of the current growth path expected by policy makers in the near term and thus justifies some further easing," said Tim Toohey, chief economist for Goldman Sachs in Australia.

 

No Jobs

 

Australia and the US, which traditionally vie for immigrants, are heading in opposite directions economically. The jobless rate Down Under, currently at 6 per cent, has been higher than the US rate, now at 5.3 per cent, for the past nine months.

"Would you move to a country where you can't get a job?," Toohey said

Macquarie estimates Australia's population growth could slow to 1.3 per cent this year, the weakest since mid-2006, as net migration cools to 162,000. Treasury projected earlier this year that a net 237,750 people would arrive in 2015, rising to 250,000 in each of the following three years.

The danger of the slowdown in new arrivals is underscored by Australia's first quarter growth data. The economy expanded 2.3 per cent from a year earlier, with 1.3 per centage points of that coming from resource exports, according to McIntyre. That means the rest of the economy produced just 1 per centage point of growth, highlighting the importance of sustaining consumer demand.

 

Fewer Babies

Alongside fewer migrants, the natural increase in population also slowed last year to the weakest since 2006.

"Households are choosing to have children only after a period of sustained income growth," Toohey said. Given household income growth is the slowest since the early 1990s, "it is not surprising that the number of births has slowed appreciably."

Fewer workers than expected are also a complication for Australia's budget, as revenue from personal income and consumption taxes is hit. The fiscal deficit is already more than 2 per cent of gross domestic product and compounded by falling iron ore prices

 

 

Houses

 

 

 

Then there's housing.

The central bank's 2 per cent cash rate has fueled a surge in property prices in the two biggest cities, Sydney and Melbourne, prompting a building boom as construction companies cash in. Policy makers have hailed the home building boost as a means to ease supply shortfalls and soak up former mine workers.

But Goldman now sees the potential for a property glut as population growth slows. Its revised demographic estimates point to an excess of 75,000 dwellings by 2017 rather than a previously forecast shortfall of 140,000.

The slowdown in population growth is a headache for RBA Governor Glenn Stevens.

"It represents a weakening of one of the key fundamentals the RBA has highlighted as supporting a pickup in non-mining investment," McIntyre said.

 

 

 

 

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/fewer-people-want-to-live-in-australia-in-growth-risk-for-rba-20150714-gicfon.html#ixzz3fyDUHe34

[Guest The Pom Queen]

I know I love Australia but I have to say I think we have hit a hard time and the next few years will be hard for everyone. I don't know about other states but I have chatted to lots of business owners in Cairns and Townsville and everyone seems to be struggling.

One good thing is that now is a good time to make the move where currency is concerned as you will get more for your pounds.

[fifi69]

Australia is a great place to live, if you've made it.

 

but when I look at some threads and see what people are paying for a family visa, and what they are giving up, sacrificing, to come here, with no job guaranteed. I'm gobsmacked.

 

Its not a risk I would take. Proper research is the key, not fancy dreams!!

[PeepingTom]

I know I love Australia but I have to say I think we have hit a hard time and the next few years will be hard for everyone. I don't know about other states but I have chatted to lots of business owners in Cairns and Townsville and everyone seems to be struggling.

One good thing is that now is a good time to make the move where currency is concerned as you will get more for your pounds.

 

true that regarding the pound strength! It has just crossed 2.10 and with the BoE governor signalling Interest Rate rise is near the horizon, the only way seems to be UP against the Aussie (unless something drastic happens)

[Guest51810]

Im glad that the currency is in my favour. Job situation isn't as good for me.. Sometimes feel like I missed my chance to go while it was easier. never mind!

[PeepingTom]

Just received a rate of 2.1056 for my transfer from my forex provider (v/s the interbank rate of 2.1156)... In a matter of an hour the pound has shot up by almost 1%.

[Guest51810]

Wonder if I should start buying some dollars when I get paid or do I wait and get it all in one go

[PeepingTom]

Wonder if I should start buying some dollars when I get paid or do I wait and get it all in one go

 

Going by the current trends, the pound seems to be on the upward trajectory (I am just an individual transferring GBP --> AUD on a regular basis, not a forex expert).. The thumb rule is to buy in regular intervals (Shares, bonds, funds, forex etc) to average out the volatility

 

I started drip-transferring GBP --> AUD since April 2013. The lowest rate I got back in 2013 was 1.49 and the highest is 2.1056 (today!).. As I am converting on a regular basis, the average rate I have received is around 1.95.

[House Biatch]

Just received a rate of 2.1056 for my transfer from my forex provider (v/s the interbank rate of 2.1156)... In a matter of an hour the pound has shot up by almost 1%.

 

Who are you using and do they charge a fee? Moneycorp are showing at $2.08 v/s the interbank rate of $2.12 but don't charge a fee

[PeepingTom]

I use UKForex and they dont charge a fee for transfers above GBP3000. They are currently quoting 2.1093 v/s interbank rate of 2.1214

[House Biatch]

I use UKForex and they dont charge a fee for transfers above GBP3000. They are currently quoting 2.1093 v/s interbank rate of 2.1214

 

 

Thanks for that - I'm going to take a look at them. That rate I quoted above was based on £10,000 - perhaps moneycorp aren't the most competitive...

[Atlas]

interesting article! definitely not an ideal time to be thinking of moving over will probably end up just validating my visa and working in london for a bit, but who knows! a lot can change in a few years.

[Guest51810]

I won't be amused if I come over on my whv and can't find work at all and end up back within 2 months! I'll turn into a bitter poster lol

[PeepingTom]

interesting article! definitely not an ideal time to be thinking of moving over will probably end up just validating my visa and working in london for a bit, but who knows! a lot can change in a few years.

 

Everything goes in cycles and similar is the case for Economies of developed countries... You just need to plan, ride and hope you catch the right wave!

[Bound4Tassie]

It's collapsing because I just paid for a partner visa! We bought a uk house and 6 months later the housing market crashed! Sorry it's all my fault! Lol!

[MARYROSE02]

I know I love Australia but I have to say I think we have hit a hard time and the next few years will be hard for everyone. I don't know about other states but I have chatted to lots of business owners in Cairns and Townsville and everyone seems to be struggling.

One good thing is that now is a good time to make the move where currency is concerned as you will get more for your pounds.

 

I'm not sure whether I agree with you or not. I have never been very good with economics, but the evidence I see in my life in Sydney is an economy which appears to be booming. Construction sites are everywhere. Despite the high prices of property, I read recently that Sydney property is not over-priced. On the Channel 7 News last night, there was a piece about a group of home owners in Castle Hill who have formed a group to sell their homes together to maximise their value because blocks of land big enough for appartments are rocketing in price.

 

I was in the city during the week and I did not get the impression I was in anything like 'Skid Row' although there were a few homeless people sleeping rough on park benches, something which also shocked me in Central London a few years back.

 

I suppose it all depends on your particular situation. I'm not actually doing it that easy with my income from a combination of rent and pensions, despite owning my own home, but perhaps that is due to my lifestyle and poor budgeting. I did draw up a budget for the start of the financial year, working out that I have an income of about $2,500 per month (dependent on the UK/Australia FX rates) and I need to save about $1,100 from that to cover my annual bills.

[MARYROSE02]

interesting article! definitely not an ideal time to be thinking of moving over will probably end up just validating my visa and working in london for a bit, but who knows! a lot can change in a few years.

 

I don't think it is viable to pick the 'right' time to migrate to Australia, or anywhere else. When I came in 1978, it was possibly the 'wrong' time, with a strong dollar and I quit a good and stable job in the UK to spend months looking for any kind of work. Looking back, I should have waited until after Xmas / New Year / school holidays, as I finally got a job, after three months and three states, in Sydney at the end of January.

 

I don't know how hard it is to get work in Sydney, but one of the staff in my local cafe is a Pommie, and I noticed one of the bar staff in KB on Monday night was also a Pommie. I also saw a sign in Crown Street, Surry Hills about a new cafe/bar opening, and the sort of staff they will need - legal right to work, able to commit for a few months, which seemed to be aimed at 'travellers'.

 

I was in the city the other day, around the part where I first lived, back in December, 1978, even had an OJ in the Criterion Hotel because I thought it was the first pub I went to in Sydney. I did it tough in a way, but I'm still here, so 'bottom line' if you are thinking of coming to Australia, don't put it off until you can pick the 'right time'.

[Guest51810]

I don't think it is viable to pick the 'right' time to migrate to Australia, or anywhere else. When I came in 1978, it was possibly the 'wrong' time, with a strong dollar and I quit a good and stable job in the UK to spend months looking for any kind of work. Looking back, I should have waited until after Xmas / New Year / school holidays, as I finally got a job, after three months and three states, in Sydney at the end of January.

 

I don't know how hard it is to get work in Sydney, but one of the staff in my local cafe is a Pommie, and I noticed one of the bar staff in KB on Monday night was also a Pommie. I also saw a sign in Crown Street, Surry Hills about a new cafe/bar opening, and the sort of staff they will need - legal right to work, able to commit for a few months, which seemed to be aimed at 'travellers'.

 

I was in the city the other day, around the part where I first lived, back in December, 1978, even had an OJ in the Criterion Hotel because I thought it was the first pub I went to in Sydney. I did it tough in a way, but I'm still here, so 'bottom line' if you are thinking of coming to Australia, don't put it off until you can pick the 'right time'.

 

hoping I can find something in one of these pubs or cafes!

[flag of convenience]

I'm afraid Australia is about to be uncovered for the fraud it has become in recent years. The population Ponzi scheme appears to be in retreat. As is the economy and consumer sentiment, but still this country remains one of the most expensive. A recent report listed Perth as continuing to be one of the most over priced cities in the world.

One can but wonder just how long this situation can last?

 

Why would migrants come to a country with declining prospects? Where migration is a business but hardly reflects the needs of society besides creating stimulation through population growth but taking little of the negatives into consideration.

 

There is always a time factor from declining fortunes until it reaches levels everyone can appreciate. Just as the boom took three or more years to filter through to the economy and housing prices etc.

 

A declining dollar will make us poorer regardless of the counter arguments of it stimulating tourism and generally low value earnings. Of course it will make the country an ever greater steal for foreigners in buying up land and parking (laundering) money in real estate as well as normal transactions.

 

All depends on the type of country one wants to live in and see's future prospects I suppose. I expect the individual, self absorbed gloating will win out though and we will continue to get the politicians we deserve.

[flag of convenience]

I don't think it is viable to pick the 'right' time to migrate to Australia, or anywhere else. When I came in 1978, it was possibly the 'wrong' time, with a strong dollar and I quit a good and stable job in the UK to spend months looking for any kind of work. Looking back, I should have waited until after Xmas / New Year / school holidays, as I finally got a job, after three months and three states, in Sydney at the end of January.

 

I don't know how hard it is to get work in Sydney, but one of the staff in my local cafe is a Pommie, and I noticed one of the bar staff in KB on Monday night was also a Pommie. I also saw a sign in Crown Street, Surry Hills about a new cafe/bar opening, and the sort of staff they will need - legal right to work, able to commit for a few months, which seemed to be aimed at 'travellers'.

 

I was in the city the other day, around the part where I first lived, back in December, 1978, even had an OJ in the Criterion Hotel because I thought it was the first pub I went to in Sydney. I did it tough in a way, but I'm still here, so 'bottom line' if you are thinking of coming to Australia, don't put it off until you can pick the 'right time'.

 

1978 was a different world and nothing like the world Australia is facing today. China for one was a closed economy. Asia was shaking of poverty and developing. This was an easy country where anybody with a job could buy a house. There are definitely better times than others to emigrate.

[flag of convenience]

I'm not sure whether I agree with you or not. I have never been very good with economics, but the evidence I see in my life in Sydney is an economy which appears to be booming. Construction sites are everywhere. Despite the high prices of property, I read recently that Sydney property is not over-priced. On the Channel 7 News last night, there was a piece about a group of home owners in Castle Hill who have formed a group to sell their homes together to maximise their value because blocks of land big enough for appartments are rocketing in price.

 

I was in the city during the week and I did not get the impression I was in anything like 'Skid Row' although there were a few homeless people sleeping rough on park benches, something which also shocked me in Central London a few years back.

 

I suppose it all depends on your particular situation. I'm not actually doing it that easy with my income from a combination of rent and pensions, despite owning my own home, but perhaps that is due to my lifestyle and poor budgeting. I did draw up a budget for the start of the financial year, working out that I have an income of about $2,500 per month (dependent on the UK/Australia FX rates) and I need to save about $1,100 from that to cover my annual bills.

 

Well what about the fact that most buys are for investment purposes and the average Sydneysider has given up on purchasing a house to live in suggest to you?

[MARYROSE02]

1978 was a different world and nothing like the world Australia is facing today. China for one was a closed economy. Asia was shaking of poverty and developing. This was an easy country where anybody with a job could buy a house. There are definitely better times than others to emigrate.

 

Some people talk about 'The good old days' and some people talk about 'The bad old days' but I think the truth is that every generation thinks they are hard done by, whilst the ones that came before them had it easy.

 

In 1978 I faced the world as a 24 year old. Today, I face it as a 61 year old. Australia did not seem like a Utopian Paradise when I arrived. I was on my own. I knew nobody. I could not get a job. I wanted to go home, but my Dad talked me out of it. The only ways I could communicate with 'home' were by phone from the GPO at Martin Place or writing 'snail mail.'

 

Why do you say it was easy to buy a house in 1978? And presumably easy to buy a house in 1968, 1958, 1948, 1938, 1928, 1918, 1908? I have lived through depressions without realizing they were happening because I happened to be working in a secure job, but it wasn't 'easy' to buy a house in 1987, when I bought mine. You still had to have a deposit, which my parents actually 'loaned' to me. I'd still be renting now had they not done that. An interest rates were horrendous in the 1980's reaching I think as high as 18 per cent. My parents bought their first house in the UK in 1954 and if it was easy for them, I wonder why they both had to work full time, whilst raising three boys?

 

You are also measuring 'easy' purely in terms of being able to get a job and/or buy a house. Ten Pound Poms had to commit to staying two years in Australia before they could go home without paying the Australian government the cost of their fares. Their feelings of isolation were far greater then too,

[VERYSTORMY]

Where we live, we are seeing many people leave oz. Until 4 months ago, we lived in a little complex of 30 houses. About 10 of the families were immigrants. A mix of South Africans, poms and kiwis. All bar us and one other family of poms have left oz. the houses have been empty for a while now.

[MARYROSE02]

Well what about the fact that most buys are for investment purposes and the average Sydneysider has given up on purchasing a house to live in suggest to you?

 

Are you sure that 'most buys are for investment purposes' and the 'average Sydneysider has given up on buying a home?' Even if it was true, it would mean that investors were confident of enough people working to be able to afford to pay off their investments. If the outlook is less than rosy then all those investors will be heading for a fall.

 

'Buying to let' has always been popular in Sydney, or at least popular since negative gearing was introduced.

 

It might be hard to buy a home in Sydney, but it does not mean that 'the average Sydneysider' has given up on it.

 

 

 

• • News

  • Videos

  • Tips

  • Your Questions

  • Property Guides

  • Calculators

  • Renovations

  • Investor Centre

  • Home Loan Centre

   

   

   

  [*]Blog

  [*]Invest

  [*]My Domain

  [*]Place an Ad

   

 

[h=1]Home ownership rises in Sydney[/h] Date June 19, 2012 [h=3]Dr Andrew Wilson[/h]

 

A resilient Sydney housing market supports home ownership

 

 

•  

• submit to reddit

• Email article

• Print

 

 

Recent announcements have positive implications for the ongoing health of the Sydney housing market.

Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Guy Debelle revealed last week that Australian housing markets were unlikely to record the steep price falls experienced by some markets in Europe and the US.

The underlying resilience of Australian housing markets has of course been apparent for some time and was never really in question given the long-term attachment of Australians to home ownership.

Home ownership rates in Australia have declined only marginally over the past 5 years despite the impact of two significant downturns in buyer activity levels during that period.

According to the 2011 Census, 67 percent of Australian households either own their own home or are in the process of owning their own home with a mortgage. This compares to the 68 percent recorded in 2006. Australia’s home ownership rates have been relatively consistent for over 50 years.

Sydney recorded the best performance in home ownership growth of all the capitals rising from 62.2 percent in 2006 to 65.2 percent in 2011. This is despite Sydney having clearly the nation’s highest capital city median house prices.

Sydney’s home ownership rate would have increased since the census data was collected in August of 2011. This increase is a result of a surge in first home buyers recorded over the later part of 2011 and into 2012 driven by state government changes to buyer stamp duty concessions and grants.

The state government indicated that it also proposes to implement changes to the planning system designed to streamline the development approval process. With current residential construction levels struggling to cater for Sydney’s rising housing demand it can be hoped that this initiative will enhance Sydney’s recent surge in home ownership.

Dr Andrew Wilson is Senior Economist for Australian Property Monitors.

 

 

[Guest Dave53]

Some people talk about 'The good old days' and some people talk about 'The bad old days' but I think the truth is that every generation thinks they are hard done by, whilst the ones that came before them had it easy.

 

In 1978 I faced the world as a 24 year old. Today, I face it as a 61 year old. Australia did not seem like a Utopian Paradise when I arrived. I was on my own. I knew nobody. I could not get a job. I wanted to go home, but my Dad talked me out of it. The only ways I could communicate with 'home' were by phone from the GPO at Martin Place or writing 'snail mail.'

 

Why do you say it was easy to buy a house in 1978? And presumably easy to buy a house in 1968, 1958, 1948, 1938, 1928, 1918, 1908? I have lived through depressions without realizing they were happening because I happened to be working in a secure job, but it wasn't 'easy' to buy a house in 1987, when I bought mine.

 

It may have not been " easy " to buy a house in 1978 or whatever , but I think it was easier than now .. I arrived in Australia in 1987 , paid $75000 for my first house , that was a little under 4X my annual wage ... Try buying now at that rate and see what you will get .. So it was easier ...

 

Dave C