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  1. If you're moving to Australia and haven't decided where to want to live yet, it may be worthwhile keeping an eye on CommSec's 'State of the States' reports. The quarterly report attempts to find out how Australia’s states and territories are performing by analysing eight key indicators: economic growth retail spending equipment investment unemployment construction work done population growth housing finance dwelling commencements. Just as the Reserve Bank uses long-term averages to determine the level of “normal” interest rates; CommSec do the same with the economic indicators. For each state and territory, latest readings for the key indicators were compared with decade averages – that is, against the “normal” performance. The latest State of the States report also includes a section comparing annual growth rates for the eight key indicators across the states and territories as well as Australia as a whole. This enables another point of comparison – in terms of economic momentum. FIRST - Victoria SECOND - NSW THIRD - Australian Capital Territory FOURTH - Tasmania FIFTH - Queensland SIXTH - South Australia SEVENTH - Northern Territory EIGHTH - Western Australia Victoria is now at the top of the economic performance rankings (For the first time since Commsec introduced the 'State of the States' economic performance rankings). Victoria ranks first on economic growth, dwelling starts and construction work done. NSW is second on the overall economic performance rankings but still holds top spot for retail spending and the relative performance on unemployment. The ACT has held on to third spot on the rankings. The ACT is top-ranked on relative housing finance and equipment spending and second-ranked on population growth and unemployment. Tasmania has held on to fourth position on the economic performance rankings and it can be broadly grouped with the ACT. Tasmania is ranked first on the relative position on population growth, a position that is driving strength in home building. Queensland is now in fifth position on the performance rankings ahead of South Australia but there is little to separate the two economies. Queensland ranks fourth on two indicators and fifth on four indicators South Australiais now in sixth position. But unemployment is the lowest in 5½ years in trend terms. The Northern Territory retains its seventh position on the economic performance rankings and can be broadly grouped with Western Australia. Both are facing challenges with the transition of resource projects moving from the production to the export phase. The Northern Territory is third-ranked on construction work done and economic growth. But it lags all other states and territories on four of the indicators. The good news is that employment is growing again in annual terms. Western Australia is seventh on three indicators and lags other economies on three indicators. But equipment spending is now the highest in just over three years.
  2. Cerberus1

    Best performing states - Q1 2018

    If you're moving to Australia and haven't decided where to want to live yet, it may be worthwhile keeping an eye on CommSec's 'State of the States' reports. The quarterly report attempts to find out how Australia’s states and territories performing by analysing eight key indicators: economic growth retail spending equipment investment unemployment construction work done population growth housing finance dwelling commencements. Just as the Reserve Bank uses long-term averages to determine the level of “normal” interest rates; CommSec do the same with the economic indicators. For each state and territory, latest readings for the key indicators were compared with decade averages – that is, against the “normal” performance. The latest State of the States report also includes a section comparing annual growth rates for the eight key indicators across the states and territories as well as Australia as a whole. This enables another point of comparison – in terms of economic momentum. FIRST - New South Wales SECOND - Victoria THIRD - Australian Capital Territory FOURTH - Tasmania FIFTH - South Australia SIXTH - Queensland SEVENTH - Northern Territory EIGHTH - Western Australia NSW has retained top rankings on five of the eight economic indicators: retail trade, dwelling starts, equipment investment, construction work and unemployment. NSW is in third spot on economic growth, population growth and housing finance. Victoria is second on the economic performance rankings for five of the eight indicators and in third spot on the other three indicators. The biggest improvement has been the job market with unemployment now almost 3% below the decade average. The ACT has held on to third spot on the rankings. The ACT is top-ranked on housing finance, in second spot on the job market and in third position on dwelling starts and retail trade. Tasmania has held fourth position on the economic performance rankings and it can be broadly grouped with the ACT. Tasmania is top-ranked on relative population growth and is second placed on equipment investment. Population growth is the strongest in 7 years. South Australia remains in fifth position on the performance rankings and it can be broadly grouped with Queensland. South Australia is ranked fourth on dwelling starts and fifth on three other indictors. Construction work done is at record highs. Queensland remains in sixth position on the performance rankings. But annual employment growth is the fastest in the nation. Population growth is at 4-year highs. And the annual total of export receipts is up more than 26% over the year. The Northern Territory retains its seventh position on the economic performance rankings and can be broadly grouped with Western Australia. The NT is top ranked on economic growth and second-ranked on construction work done. But it lags all other states and territories on five of the indicators. The good news is that exports are growing strongly, up 22% on a year ago. Western Australia is seventh on five indicators and lags other economies on the other three indicators. But equipment spending and exports are posting firm annual growth.
  3. Australia will become the 11th largest economy on earth within the next eight years. The forecast is from UK think tank the Centre for Economics and Business Research, and is contained in its World Economic League Table 2018 report. “One of this year’s themes is that countries depending on brainpower will generally overtake countries depending on natural resources,” says the report.” Australia is one of the most popular countries in the world for inward migration as well as having natural resources. “The growing population means that the economy is forecast to rise from 13th largest in 2017 to 11th largest economy in 2026. Investment in urban infrastructure will need to accelerate as population increases.” There is a perception amongst many in Australia that we have a small economy. While Australia is well behind global leaders such as the USA and China, it is larger – in terms of economic output – than many countries we might As the report points out, the key driver of Australia’s economic growth is more people. Population is growing much more quickly than most other countries the Western world, primarily as a result of high immigration. Both major parties support this policy, though there is now something of a backlash against it. The findings have significant ramifications for public policy makers. The report mentions the need for higher spending on infrastructure, but it also means that Australia will be increasingly important on the global stage. Government policy at all levels will need to reflect this. A key aspect of the report is the growth of Asia, and in particular Australia’s largest trading partner China, which is forecast to overtake the USA the world’s top economy by 2030. “This remains a remarkable achievement from an economy that was only 12 percent the size of the US economy as recently as 2000.” India will shortly overtake UK and France to become the world’s fifth largest economy (Japan and Germany will remain third and fourth). By 2032 three out of the world’s four largest economies will be Asian (China, India and Japan) while Korea and Indonesia enter world’s top ten, and Taiwan, Thailand, Philippines and Pakistan enter world’s top 25 economies. “As formerly developing countries develop, they will become the majority of the world economy. As recently as 2000 the developed world was 76 percent of the world economy and the other countries 24 percent. Not surprisingly world politics was dominated by the 76 percent. By 2032 their share will have dropped to 44 percent while the formerly developing nations are 56 percent. Political influence is bound to follow the changing economic share and the former developing economies are likely to get increased political leverage in world bodies and bilateral relations. Other highlights of the report: India leapfrogs Britain and France to become the world’s 5th largest economy in dollar terms in 2018. Brexit effects on UK less than feared and the UK bounces back to overtake France in 2020. China overtakes the USA to become the world’s largest dollar economy in 2030. Because the impact of President Trump on trade has been less severe than expected, the USA will retain its global crown a year longer than anticipated in the last report. Cheap energy boosts growth for energy consumers but hits energy producer. As a consequence of a weak oil price, Russia will drop from 11th in 2017 to 17th in 2032. Brazil will overtake France and the UK and become the 6th largest economy by 2028 • Italy will drop out of the ten largest economies by 2023 and fall to 13th in 2029. The World Economic League Table tracks the size of different economies across the globe and projects changes over the next 15 years. This year the main revisions reflect dramatic changes in economic assumptions “If major risks can be avoided, our central forecast is for a period of stronger growth than we have seen for the past five years, driven by cheap energy and by technology. “The price of oil has been edging down over the last decade, driven by weaker demand, a falling ratio of energy usage to GDP as output dematerialises and, on the supply side, the growth of energy production from renewables and from fracking which has changed the traditional relationship between GDP and oil prices. We expect this change to persist through to 2032.”
  4. Shock News! Dr. Bob Birrell “anti immigration researcher” of the Centre for Population & Urban Research at Monash University calls for less Temporary Visas, International Students and Immigrants (but British, Irish etc. Backpackers ok?). AUSTRALIA’S major immigration visa subclasses need to be culled to slash record high immigration because the growth of jobs has slowed “to a crawl” and migrants are exploiting the system, according to the Centre for Population and Urban Research…… ….They say once here tens of thousands extend their presence in the labour market by churning from visa to visa. For example, in 2011-12, they say 26,671 overseas students already in Australia were granted a tourist visa….. …
  5. Bank Warning on Australian Property Prices Morgan Stanley analyst bearish on housing market. LOCAL property investors have become "Ponzi borrowers" in a market 40 per cent overvalued, according to a Morgan Stanley strategist. In a bearish note to clients this morning, Morgan Stanley strategist chief strategist Gerard Minack warned Australia's housing "bubble" could be pricked should banks tighten credit or "loss-making" middle-class landlords start to sell. He argues owner-occupiers are in too much debt and investors are riskily relying on capital gains to repay their loans and interest repayments. Compounding the problem is "ill-advised policy", such as the government's first home-buyers grant, which has combined to make Australian houses "40 per cent above fair value", Mr Minack says. "Buying an asset that's over-priced never ends well," he said. "The real return on residential property over the next decade is likely to be negative, in my view." No surprise, the supposed increase or spruiking of house prices has been based upon "population growth" spike due to labour demand till 2008, returning Australians, international students and backpackers (statistics and related info lags a lot...). But this has slowed dramatically with new student enrolments for 2011 "falling off a cliff", permanent residency blocked for many due to "immigration debate" so they are either not coming in the first place or are returning home, thus investors assuming they can rent out their properties should be very wary..... owner occupiers should be fine in medium term.
  6. connaust

    Media & House Shortage Porkies

    DOUBT has been cast on the widely held belief that a shortage of housing in Australia is driving up property prices, with a leading researcher arguing there are nearly two million too many homes. Researchers Brendan Darcy and Louis Christopher say high prices cannot be blamed on a lack of housing stock because the figures used to illustrate the shortage -- if indeed there is one -- were being misinterpreted. You still here stories about rising migration and population growth, while we know they are decreasing as we speak...... hope there is not going to be a crash.... but nice easing and deflation of prices could be useful.
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