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Found 16 results

  1. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD

    The Australian dollar has been struggling recently against the pound owing to a number of different reasons. The wildfires have caused a huge amount of damage to the country and this is likely to have a knock on effect on the economy. According to Katrina Ell from Moody’s ‘the risk of there being broader macroeconomic spillovers this season are high given the scale of the fires.’ Also, the chances are increasing that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will look to cut interest rates when they hold their next meeting on 4th February. Economic data has been mixed during 2019 and the RBA has already hinted that it may look to make further cuts to the interest rate. The Australian dollar has also weakened recently over the unrest in the Middle East. As a commodity based currency the AUD can often be adversely affected by geopolitical uncertainty. The currency can often be sold off as investors view the Australian dollar as a riskier based currency. Investors will then typically move money towards safe haven currencies including the US dollar, Swiss franc or the Japanese yen. This can be evidenced when looking at what has happened to those three currencies over the last few weeks.
  2. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    Despite trending lower for most of this week, and briefly seeing a slump yesterday, the British Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate has rebounded from its lows today and ultimately hasn’t seen huge losses this week after all. Demand for the Pound has been limited amid political uncertainty, but the Australian Dollar has seen big shifts in movement this week which have driven exchange rate movement. After opening this week at the level of 1.8710, GBP/AUD has spent the week trending with a downside bias due as the Australian Dollar capitalised on mixed Pound movement. GBP/AUD was almost on track to have lost around a cent and a half as it touched on a three week low of 1.8550 overnight, but after hitting those lows the pair has been recovering. While GBP/AUD continues to trend below the week’s opening levels, it has recovered most of its losses amid fresh Australian Dollar weakness, and at the time of writing was trending closer to the level of 1.8673. The Pound has seen mixed performance all week, and has lacked fresh support as investors focus on Britain’s 2019 General Election race. The election, still over a month away, is expected to see a win for the ruling Conservative Party which is being perceived as boosting the chances of a relatively soft Brexit. However, uncertainty about the possibility of other election outcomes is weighing on the British currency, preventing it from continuing to climb on softer Brexit hopes. On top of this, the Bank of England (BoE) surprised investors yesterday as policymakers were unexpectedly split on UK monetary policy.
  3. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD

    The GBP/AUD exchange rate is trading at around 1.8084 at the start of the new week having fallen 0.75% in the week before, and we note the pair to be trading in an increasingly narrow sideways range, with a decisive break higher or lower required to define the trend. With a politically-charged week of UK politics lying ahead, we could see some fresh direction injected into this exchange rate over coming days: the question is what are the levels readers should be watching. The Australian Dollar remains a proxy for investor sentiment towards China, and specifically the U.S.-China trade war. The Australian Dollar extended lower on Friday as 'risk assets' fell from favour with investors ahead of a weekend that is expected to yield a further escalation of the U.S.-China trade war although the Antipodean unit is tipped by multiple analysts to remain under pressure for a while to come. President Donald Trump moved ahead Sunday with a new tariff of 15% aimed at the remaining balance of Chinese exports to the U.S. not yet covered by punitive levies, although it will be December 15 before all of the country's trade with the U.S. is fully tariffed. Those exports waiting to be tariffed are worth around $300 bn each year, while the U.S. has $75 bn of exports to China that are set to be targeted in retaliation.
  4. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD update

    The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has come under added pressure following new Brexit developments, which are once again starting to impact on sterling exchange rates. Rates for GBP vs AUD had rallied higher since last Friday when US President Donald Trump delivered on his promise to impose additional tariffs on Chinese good coming into the US. The uncertainty has continued after China then imposed 60 billion worth of tariffs on US exports escalating the trade war further. Overnight has seen the rift widen after China has reportedly said that they may not continue with these trade negotiations unless the US shows “sincerity”. Any developments in this spat are likely to see a reaction for the pound to Australian dollar exchange rate. The Australian dollar also faces a further slide lower as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) considers cutting interest rates. New Zealand have already cut interest rates this month signalling the mood in this part of the world for the commodity currencies. Concerns in the Australian economy and the recent weak retail sales data continue to point the RBA in the direction of cutting interest rates putting added pressure on the Australian dollar. In the UK the Brexit debate is heating up ahead of European elections to be held 23rd May. Major volatility for sterling exchange rates is expected around this time with many voters expected to leave the two main parties for the Liberal Democrats, Change UK and the newly formed Brexit Party. If there is a major shift towards the Brexit Party under Nigel Farage then this may be seen as a reaffirmation of the Leave vote and could help shape the direction of Brexit with a potentially cleaner Brexit to become possible, something that would be seen as negative for the sterling exchange rates. It should not be underestimated how much of a political stir these elections could cause which could see high currency volatility. The fourth and final vote on the existing withdrawal agreement will be held in the first week of June. This event will likely see major volatility for GBP to AUD rates. The Prime Minister is expected to lose this vote and her departure from office is to be expected shortly after this date with Conservative MPs already preparing for a quick leadership contest. A change of leader will almost certainly have a bearing on the direction of Brexit and hence the strength of the pound.
  5. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate is on the back foot this morning as AUD investors were relieved by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to keep rates on hold this month. At the time of writing the GBP/AUD exchange rate is down around 0.4% this month, leaving the pairing trading at around AU$1.8658. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthened during the Asian session on Tuesday, rising against the Pound (GBP) and the majority of its other peers in the wake of the RBA’s latest rate decision. Ahead of the meeting markets had priced in a roughly 50% chance that the bank could cut rates this month, leading the ‘Aussie’ to tick higher as AUD investors unravelled their positions after the RBA voted to leave interest rates on hold again in May. However, whilst the RBA may have kept rates on hold this month, the bank made it clear that a potential rate cut remains on the table this year, especially as slack in the labour market remains a concern.
  6. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    Pound to Australian dollar rates have been trending lower as the market becomes more concerned over the outcome on Brexit and there has also been rising belief of progress on the trade wars, which have acted as a major drain for the global economy and sentiments generally. Clients looking to make a purchase of Australian dollars with pounds could find they become unstuck if there is a sudden change in the political situation for the UK. There has been many rumours that we could soon find Theresa May on the ropes once again, having to defend her position as Prime Minister. UK local elections are just around the corner, with the votes on May 2nd and this will be a big factor in determining the public mood with the Conservatives. There has been a growing expectation that there will need to be some change of approach in order to see Brexit make passage. Concerns over what type of Brexit is on offer could easily see the pound losing ground quite quickly. This week the focus will be on lots of talks with Labour which are unlikely to yield too much progress with the Labour party spotting an opportunity to make some further headway themselves, by frustrating Mrs May and her party.
  7. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates drifted lower on Tuesday afternoon, this comes as Theresa May went on a last minute charm offensive in Paris and Berlin in attempt to persuade Emmanuel Macron and Angel Merkel to back her request for a short Brexit extension. EU leaders will decide on Wednesday whether to grant Theresa May another Brexit delay or leave the UK to face a no- deal Brexit on Friday, an outcome that will unnerve most GBP investors. Demand for the Pound is unlikely to see any significant improvement in the near term, with investors wary ahead of Friday’s Brexit deadline.Unless Theresa May agrees another deadline extension with EU leaders the GBP/AUD exchange rate looks set to remain biased to the downside this week.If a sense of clarity over the UK’s future relationship with the EU starts to emerge, though, the Pound could recover some of its recently lost ground.On the other hand, if May fails to secure a further extension of the current deadline GBP exchange rates may come under further pressure as the risk of a no-deal Brexit intensifies. AUD exchange rates could find fresh encouragement on the back of February’s Australian home loans and investment lending figures, meanwhile.Forecasts point towards home loans bouncing back from the previous month’s -1.2% contraction, delivering modest growth of 0.5% on the month.While investment lending is expected to remain within negative territory any improvement on January’s contraction may give the Australian Dollar a modest boost against its rivals.However, if Australian lending shows signs of weakening as consumers and businesses rein in their borrowing this could offer the GBP/AUD exchange rate some support.
  8. Anthony from Moneycorp

    AUD and GBP Update

    Of late Pound Sterling and the Australian Dollar have been two of the best-performing major currencies in global FX markets: it is therefore little wonder that the GBP/AUD exchange rate reflects something of a deadlock. As such, the GBP/AUD exchange rate is trading at 1.8338 at the start of the new week, little changed from the week before. Sterling has exhibited strength on the back of the news that Theresa May was reaching out to Jeremy Corbyn in order to try to forge a consensus on Brexit that could actually result in a deal that a majority in the House of Commons might support. The Australian Dollar has meanwhile benefited from a robust recovery in global investor sentiment, with markets being particularly optimistic that a trade deal between the U.S. and China is nigh.
  9. The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has been testing some of the best levels since before the EU vote June 2016. Brexit is however far from settled and we could easily see some big changes in the currency markets soon. Positivity from Brexit could easily see the GBP/AUD rate top the 1.90 level, whilst the threat of no-deal Brexit could sink us back below 1.80. This week has seen the pound to Australian dollar exchange rate drop back slightly from the higher 1.80’s and the 1.8830 reached on the 14th March, as Theresa May’s position remains very much under threat. There is currently uncertainty over whether or not she is likely to have her job at the end of this week! The outlook for GBP/AUD rates is very mixed as we approach the finality on Brexit. Much will hinge on what lies head for the rest of this week. Theresa May is supposed to be having another ‘meaningful’ vote although these appear to be quickly becoming meaningless in my opinion. Last night parliament voted to take control of the some of the next stages which could open us up to a second Referendum or General Election. Mrs May is still determined to have her vote but it is looking increasingly like she will struggle and in any event it will be voted down. Clients expecting some certainty this week on Brexit will now find the dates of the 12th April and the 22nd May more interesting. These are the dates given by the EU as an extension. The latter date being conditional on Mrs May’s Brexit deal being passed by the Government, which is so far not looking likely. Those buying Australian dollars might wish to use this uncertain time to be making key preparations around what is likely to be a very turbulent period for GBP/AUD rates.
  10. Anthony from Moneycorp

    AUD and GBP Update

    Pound Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rate fell to a fresh low for the week thus far in early Tuesday trading as rebounding risk sentiment lifted the Aussie and Brexit-related uncertainty kept a lid on GBP upside. Brexit retains its influence as a key factor with developments therein expected to continue to drive price action for the GBP. Following Monday's parliamentary session, focus now turns to Wednesday's indicative votes which will give MPs the opportunity to present, and vote on, alternative Brexit plans. Aside from a panel discussion including RBA assistant governor, Christopher Kent, the schedule is clear for the Aussie with the antipodean currency expected to be at the mercy of risk-appetite, which for now at least remains positive.
  11. The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate could lose further value as the UK heads closer to the 29th Brexit date with no real sign of what lies ahead. Whilst it is accepted that there should be some form of extension, the EU will only agree to this is the current deal is passed by the UK parliament. If the deal is rejected again we could see the pound lose further value as it increases the likelihood of a no-deal scenario. GBPAUD exchange rates could then slip below 1.80 and potentially below the 1.77 lows of 2019. Overnight there has also been Australian unemployment figures released, with Unemployment slightly better than expected at 4.9% versus the 5% prediction. This is at odds with the recent expectations we could see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates this year. It is likely that pound to Australian dollar rates will be very difficult to predict with lots of sudden twists and turns ahead. Today is the UK Bank of England decision which could well provide some further volatility. The outcome of Brexit negotiations and the changing impression is likely to remain the main driver of movements on pound to Australian dollar exchange rates.
  12. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP/AUD Sheds Last Week's Gains

    Pound to Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Sheds Last Week’s Impressive Gains Fresh frustration from the UK and EU over a Brexit impasse, with just over one week until Brexit, led to a deluge of unexpected developments yesterday that sent Brexit confidence and the Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate plummeting. Last week saw GBP/AUD surge from 1.8467 to 1.8763, as investors bet against a no-deal Brexit. However, since yesterday’s ultimatums from the EU and from the UK government, no-deal Brexit fears returned once again and GBP/AUD essentially shed those gains. The Australian Dollar (AUD) was more easily able to capitalise on the Pound’s (GBP) weakness this morning, due to dovishness from the Federal Reserve making investors more willing to take risks.
  13. The two key releases for the Australian Dollar are the minutes of the last Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting and employment data. Analysts are currently split over whether the RBA will cut interest rates or not so the RBA minutes will be a closely watched deciding factor in the debate with implications for the Aussie. If the members of the RBA policy committee appear to endorse a possible rate cut it would weigh on the Australian Dollar. Lower interest rates weigh on currencies as they make the country less attractive as a destination for foreign capital inflows. The other main release is employment data. This has traditionally been quite strong in Australia and one of the bright spots of the economy. The risk lies with it weakening and surprising the market negatively. This would weigh on the Aussie. Current Status While the immediate outlook for GBP/AUD has softened, Sterling is nevertheless still looking to notch up a weekly gain on its antipodean counterpart. Brexit aside, a key driver of GBP/AUD has been a softening in expectations for the outlook of the Australian economy. The question being asked by foreign exchange markets is whether or not the slowdown in Australian economic momentum is great enough to warrant interest rate cuts at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
  14. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and USD update

    The Australian Dollar weakened on Wednesday, helping the Pound-to-Australian-Dollar rate to recover onto a firmer footing, although analysts say the Brexit saga playing out in London is a double edged sword for the Antipodean and British currencies. A messy turn of events in London over the coming days would send Pound Sterling reeling once again but it could also have adverse implications for the Aussie Dollar in its own right, given the likely impact on the U.S. Dollar and the Antipodean unit's sensitivity to changes in risk appetite. "AUD/USD has been largely unaffected by Brexit developments. However, if the UK Parliament vote for a hard Brexit tomorrow, AUD/USD could fall as the USD gets bid in the global foreign exchange market, and if/as global equities decline," says Richard Grace, head of FX strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
  15. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The Australian dollar is also likely to be influenced by the outcome of the US-China trade war negotiations. The ecostats presented a mixed picture. Construction work done in the fourth quarter of 2018 was down by a seasonally-adjusted 3.1% from Q3 January’s building permits were up by 2.5% on the month and 28.6% on the year. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its benchmark rate steady at 1.5% In the accompanying statement the RBA Governor noted a strong labour market, slower growth, lower house prices and low and stable inflation, which is likely to pick up over the next couple of years.
  16. Anthony from Moneycorp

    AUD braced for Australian employment data

    The Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar exchange rate is on the offensive and is being pushed higher by rising enthusiasm amongst dealers. Tonight's Australian employment data is really important . By the time they come out it is possible that the media will have something to say about the success of Theresa May's Brussels jaunt. AUD overnight implied volatility as currency traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision. Investors now await monthly readings of the UK Services PMI followed by testimony by the Governor Mark Carney.
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