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Found 24 results

  1. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The GBP/ AUD exchange rate is trading at around 1.7727 on Monday, 0.90%b lover than at the same point last week. The pair has started to sell off steeply after rebounding to a multi - week high at 1.82. Although the overarching downtrend is still intact a break back below the trendline is required to confirm the downtrend. We retain a neutral outlook over the next 5 days, with a break higher or lower above various levels required to confirm the next direction of the trend. The most important data releases for the Aussie in the week ahead are employment data on Thursday and Chinese data on Wednesday. Australian employment data is forecast to show a 14k rise in July whilst unemployment is expected to remain at 5.8% when released at 2.30 BST on Thursday. This suggests a slightly positive result. The data could impact interest rate expectations and therefore the Aussie. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been aggressively cutting rates of late and this has been pressuring the Aussie lower since lower interest rates tend to weigh on currencies. A worse-than-expected result could increase speculation of a further interest rate cuts from the RBA in September - current market expectations are around 40% of a cut then.
  2. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has declined since the start of May with sterling losing value against all major currencies. Last week the Bank of England confirmed that British companies are close to a near record in regards to sterling deposits switched into Foreign Currency for the month of June. The Bank of England’s commentary and the data that supports it shows that businesses within the UK that have exposure to foreign currency are buying upfront due to threat of a no deal Brexit and could be the reason why the pound is continuing to lose value. The ongoing Brexit saga is going to be the key driver for the pound against the Australian dollar in the weeks and months to come. Since the start of May mid market exchange rates have continued to fall. If it’s the case Pro EU MP’s fail to stop Boris from crashing out of the EU, then the pound could see further decline. This was supported by the Bank of England last week, as Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney warned that the pound could crash on the back of a no deal, and consequently also cut growth forecasts. If you are buying Australian dollars in the months to come and are concerned about how Brexit could impact you, feel free to get in touch with me and I will be able to provide you with guidance on the markets.
  3. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The main events impacting the Australian Dollar in the week ahead are likely to be global and geopolitical in nature, with the only local data being a speech from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe. The Iranian special forces boarded and held a passing UK tanker in the Strait over the weekend in retaliation for the UK boarding and stopping an Iranian tanker in the strait of Gibraltar. Whilst further saber-rattling could drive up oil prices, it's not so integrally connected with Australia to spark a rout in the Aussie Dollar, although higher oil prices could become another headwind for the global economy and that could impact the Aussie over time if it came to pass. The major driver of the Pound this week is likely to be the announcement of the winner of the Conservative Party leadership election on July 22, but with little difference remaining between the two candidates' stated Brexit policies, the result may not cause as much volatility as previously expected. Jeremy Hunt is seen as more ‘moderate’ and less likely to take the UK out of the EU without a deal, so his election might provide some relief for Sterling. The opposite is true of Boris Johnson, who is the bookmakers' favourite to win, although such an outcome is likely in the price of the Pound by now.
  4. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP & AUD

    The Pound Sterling Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate remained muted and the pairing is currently trading at an inter-bank rate The Pound (GBP) is rangebound against the Australian Dollar and the majority of its other peers this morning, following the release of the UK’s latest housing data. Unsurprisingly, Brexit uncertainty continued to play a role in the dip, with both buyers and sellers seeking greater clarity before making any commitments. Looking ahead to next week’s session, we expect to see the Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate come under pressure following the release of the UK’s monthly GDP figures.
  5. Anthony from Moneycorp

    Update on AUD and GBP

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded at a one - week low against the Pound on Thursday, after the 'Aussie' was driven lower overnight following the Federal Reserve rate decision. While no policy changes were made by the Fed this month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to its ‘patient’ approach to monetary policy this year. This prompted a sharp drop in risk-sentiment in the mid-week as it gave no indication that the Fed could be planning to cut interest rates in the immediate future, despite recent speculation. Meanwhile the Pound (GBP) is clinging to its recent gains against the Australian (AUD) this morning following the publication of the UK’s construction PMI. While GBP investors welcomed the return to growth, with the sector only barely avoiding contraction and signs that activity could contract again in the coming months the PMI figures were ultimately unable to lend much support to the Pound.
  6. Anthony from Moneycorp

    Update on AUD and GBP

    GBP/AUD UPDATE: The Pound to Australian Dollar extended gains to post a fresh one-night best in overnight trade with Sterling reaching AU$1.86613 following a downbeat Aussie Building Approvals release. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the number of new building approvals issued over the last month declined by 15.5%, the sharpest contraction since February 2018. The Pound-to-Aussie trimmed gains marginally heading into Friday's session amid reports both the UK's main political parties, the Conservatives and Labour, look set to lose a significant number of seats in English local elections - suggestive of malcontent over Brexit choas. The session ahead is relatively sparse with the notable exception of the latest UK Services PMI, forecast to rebound into growth territory following a dip below the neutral 50 level in last month's print. Focus, as-ever, will also be on UK politics with final election results and any ad-hoc Brexit news-flow while for the Aussie, with the RBA set to review policy next week, upside may be capped by expectations of further dovish rhetoric or even a potential cut to key policy rates amid persistently underwhelming data.
  7. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The Pound-to-Australian Dollar exchange rate starts the new week trading at 1.8348 having climbed over a percent during the week before. Gains came mainly as a result of a weakening of the Australian unit after lower-than-expected inflation data suggested the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might actually lower interest rates over coming months. Lower interest rates tend to weigh on the local currency as they detract from foreign capital inflows which favour jurisdictions with higher interest rates where their money will earn a higher interest return. The main release for the Australian Dollar is probably Chinese data in the shape of manufacturing PMI out Tuesday at 2:00 B.S.T. The PMI data for April will show whether Australia's largest trading partner has indeed turned a corner from its recent soft patch. PMIs for March suggested this is indeed the case, the data is considered to be on of the drivers of the recent pick-up in global investor sentiment over recent weeks: conditions that would typically favour the Aussie currency.
  8. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) was turbo - charged overnight on Tuesday with the currency racing higher against the Pound (GBP) and the majority of its other peers following the release of some stronger - than - expected economic data from China. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistic, Chinese GDP held at 6.4% through the first quarter of 2019. While this left growth at a decade low it beat expectations that growth would have slowed to 6.3% prompting suggestions that China’s recent slowdown may have bottomed out. This was also accompanied by some impressive Chinese industrial statistics, with year-on-year growth in industrial production reported to have rocketed up from 5.3% to 8.5%, blowing past forecasts of a modest rise to 5.9%. The accompanying industrial data may have been even more supportive of the rise in risk sentiment according to some analysts. Looking ahead, the Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate may come under additional pressure on Thursday as the UK publishes its latest retail sales figures. Sterling looks likely to stumble following the data as economists forecast that sales growth will have slumped in March, falling from 0.4% to -0.3% as consumers limited their purchases amid heighted Brexit uncertainty. In the meantime the release of Australia’s employment figures overnight could elicit some weakness in the Australian Dollar.
  9. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has made some small gains to start this week after a poorer performance from the GBP to AUD pair last week. The general move lower in the last couple of weeks has been influenced by a weaker pound due to continued Brexit uncertainty but also a stronger Australian dollar as commodity prices have spiked higher. In the UK, Brexit remains the single biggest driver for sterling exchange rates although news on this front it likely to be less in these coming weeks with Parliament taking the Easter recess. The UK is now preparing to contest the European elections following the agreed extension for Britain’s withdrawal from the EU until 31st October 2019. The markets are now preparing for the implications from this extension in that the Conservative party could lose a great deal of seats in the EU elections. With the newly formed Brexit party being campaigned by Nigel Farage there could be something of a revolution in British politics. The local elections could also see a major shift in voting patterns, with this carrying much risk for the pound. Any big changes could result in major volatility for the GBP vs AUD pair.
  10. Anthony from Moneycorp

    AUD and GBP Update

    The Australian Dollar was trading on its back foot Tuesday ahead of the release of February retail sales data, which will help markets to answer the question of whether 2018's economic weakness carried forward into the New Year. Economic growth has faltered, in large part, due to the impact that declines in house prices have had on household confidence and spending. However, President Donald Trump's trade war with China also dented business confidence the world over in 2018, as well as the Australian Dollar. Currency markets care about the retail data because of the impact rising and falling demand has on inflation. It's changes in consumer price pressures that central banks are attempting to manipulate when they tinker with interest rates, which are themselves the raison d'être for most swings in exchange rates.
  11. Anthony from Moneycorp

    Quarterly Overview of the AUD

    The numbers presented a mixed, but largely steady picture in Australia. The gross domestic product data showed that Australia's' economy grew more slowly in Q4; by 0.2% instead of the expected 0.3%. Annual growth was 2.3%, down from 2.8% three months earlier. At the beginning of the year, there were signs that the trade surplus was narrowing. One of the more influential statistics for the Australian dollar was the AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index. It was up by a point and a half in February at 52.5. Data relating to housing and employment also had an effect on the Aussie’s value. House prices in Australian capital cities fell an average of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018, leaving them 5.1% lower on the year. It marked the longest run of losses since 2011. At the end of the quarter, data showed that unemployment fell to 4.9%, its lowest level since 2011. However, less than 5,000 of the jobs were new ones and there was a 15k swing from full-time to part-time employment. Investors were not totally impressed. Consumer confidence deteriorated by 4.7% to 99.6 in December, according to a Westpac survey and this trend continued into January. February's rebound did little more than reverse the previous month's decline and the onepoint improvement in business confidence, from 3 to 4, still left the measure below trend. However, by March surveys by NAB and Westpac found business confidence fading from 4 to 2 while consumer confidence was down by 4.8% to 103.8.
  12. Anthony from Moneycorp

    AUD Update

    The Aussie took third place behind the Japanese yen and US dollar. It lost narrowly to the USD and strengthened by two thirds of a cent against the pound. Australian economic data were conspicuous by their absence. The only ones to appear were for private sector credit in February. Lending to individuals and companies increased by a monthly 0.3% and was 4.2% higher on the year. Investors did not really notice. What they did notice, though, was guidance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that its next change to interest rates was likely to be a cut. Although there is no direct link between the RBNZ and the Reserve Bank of Australia, investors decided that such a move would be likely to affect the thinking of the RBA. It does not have much room to take rates lower but it might be inclined to try to find some.
  13. The Pound to Australian Dollar rate is set to beging trading around 1.8648 Sunday after falling more than one percent in the previous week, although studies of the charts suggest the outlook for the days ahead is a bullish one. The GBP/AUD pair fell at the start of last week after it the government requested from Brussels only a very short delay to the Brexit process. It recovered later, however, after the EU left the door open a much longer extension of the Article 50 negotiating window, and potentially an indefinite one if Prime Minister Theresa May fails again to get the EU Withdrawal Agreement through parliament. Pundits are still suggesting she will struggle to win enough votes for her deal to be approved next week so there is at least one fundamental reason for why the Pound could rise during the week ahead as a third failure of the Withdrawal Bill to clear parliament might see the market fixate on the odds of Brexit being abandoned by the government or prevented through a second referendum. The main event for the Australian Dollar in the week ahead is likely to be geopolitical in nature since the domestic data releases in the calendar are fairly low key. U.S.-China trade talks are scheduled to kick off again on Thursday, 28 March. Any positive opening statements may support the Chinese Renmimbi and Australian Dollar although markets could soon begin to grow impatient with a lack of detail on the final shape of the trade deal.
  14. Over the last 4 weeks GBP/AUD exchange rates have increased by 6 cents making a AUD $300,000 purchase £5,340 cheaper. The slowdown in Australia is putting a major strain on Australian dollar exchange rates. The housing market is under severe pressure due to the tightening of lending standards throughout 2018. China is slowing due to the ongoing trade war which means less commodities are leaving Australian shores and the Reserve Bank of Australia have hinted at cutting interest rates in a bid to stimulate economic growth. All in all, it’s hard to see how the tides will change for the Australian economy unless major changes are made to monetary policy and the US and China secure a trade deal that works for both parties. One positive is that unemployment numbers have remained stable over the last couple of months. This week Australia will release their latest unemployment numbers and 5% is expected. If the number is released at 5%, I expect the Australian dollar could benefit on Thursday morning. However earlier in the week, the RBA minutes and House Price index numbers are released on Tuesday morning. Both releases I expect could disappoint, therefore waiting till Friday to sell Australian dollars seems a risky strategy.
  15. Further volatility looks likely for the GBP/AUD exchange rate in the wake of Parliament’s next round of votes, with markets still weighing up the likely outcome of the Brexit process. If an amendment paving the way for a second referendum gains sufficient support this could offer the Pound a fresh boost. However, the prospect of an extended period of Brexit-based uncertainty and political anxiety may weigh on GBP exchange rates in the wake of the results. Even if MPs vote in favour of extending the deadline unless there are signs of progress towards a workable deal the upside potential of the Pound is likely to prove limited.
  16. Anthony from Moneycorp

    On the road to recovery?

    The Australian Dollar weakened on Wednesday, helping the Pound-to-Australian-Dollar rate to recover onto a firmer footing, although analysts say the Brexit saga playing out in London is a double edged sword for the Antipodean and British currencies. A messy turn of events in London over the coming days would send Pound Sterling reeling once again but it could also have adverse implications for the Aussie Dollar in its own right, given the likely impact on the U.S. Dollar and the Antipodean unit's sensitivity to changes in risk appetite. "AUD/USD has been largely unaffected by Brexit developments. However, if the UK Parliament vote for a hard Brexit tomorrow, AUD/USD could fall as the USD gets bid in the global foreign exchange market, and if/as global equities decline," says Richard Grace, head of FX strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
  17. Anthony from Moneycorp

    Brexit Uncertainty for GBP and AUD

    Over the last 12 months, the property market down under has been causing major problems for the Australian dollar. Lending standards alongside the global slowdown has caused property prices to take a tumble in the major cities. If the home loan numbers fail to hit 1%, the Australian dollar could have a tough week as it increased the chances of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting interest rates this year. However Brexit negotiations are likely to be the most important driver for GBPAUD exchange rates. If Theresa May has managed to sway MPs to vote in favour of her Brexit deal I expect the pound to make further inroads against the Australian dollar. However, if MPs decide to extend Article50 or vote to crash out of the EU this could have a negative impact on the pound and rates could fall to levels we become accustom to last year.
  18. Anthony from Moneycorp

    AUD Declining due to economy

    The Pound-to-Australian Dollar exchange rate is trading at 1.8456 at the start of the new week after declining a percent in the previous week, cutting back the pair's 2019 advance to 2%. The losses suffered by the pair over recent sessions appear to have come largely from the Sterling side of the equation as opposed to independent Australian Dollar strength, with markets paring back exposure to the UK currency ahead of a key week of Brexit votes in the House of Commons. major weakness in the Australian economy is the state of the housing market which has seen steep discounts recently. This has pressured the Australian Dollar lower as it could prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) into cutting interest rates: lower interest rates, or expectations thereof, tend to weigh on a currency.
  19. Benefits of using a foreign exchange specialist By John Kinghorn from moneycorp If you’re sending money overseas, you may think using your local bank is the most convenient and efficient option, but working with a currency exchange specialist can give you access to great value rates and services that your bank may not be willing to provide. In addition, a specialist can offer expert guidance to help you navigate the fluctuating currency market. As an ex-pat, you could have a number of reasons why you need to convert currency, and accessing great rates and avoiding high fees could have a significant impact on the money you receive for any of the following: · Buying a home in Australia; · Converting UK rental income into Australian dollars; · Repatriating Australian dollars back to the UK; · Receiving your pension payments; · Transferring money to friends and family overseas. As well as great rates and lower fees than most high street banks, a specialist can also offer a range of product solutions to help you manage all your foreign exchange requirements · Spot contracts for urgent payments which allow for same-day exchange and transfer; · Stop-loss orders to prevent against precipitous drops in the exchange rate; · Rate targeting and tracking to help you make the most of your money ; · Regular payment plans to fix rates and collect funds from a UK account by direct debit for overseas payments; · Easy-access online account management, supported by an expert team available on the phone. Get started with moneycorp moneycorp offers all our clients a professional service that helps you transfer money across borders and let you get on with enjoying your new life in Australia. It’s free to register for a moneycorp account and you can do this online by clicking here. You can also read more information here on the Poms in Oz currency page – https://www.moneycorp.com/uk/campaigns/partners/pio/ Moneycorp is a reference to TTT Moneycorp Pty Limited which is registered in Australia (business number 116612858). Its principal place of business is Level 15 Exchange Tower, 2 The Esplanade, Perth WA 6000, Australia. TTT Moneycorp Pty Limited is authorised to deal in foreign exchange contracts and buy/sell quotes to retail and wholesale clients as an Authorised Representative (reference number 445555) of Rochford Capital Pty Limited (AFSL License No. 361276).
  20. Mattcouts

    FX transfer UK to Aus

    Hi My partner and I are moving to Aus (she's an Aussie) in the autumn 2018. We have quite a bit of savings which we are keen to move over to Aus for a house. We will look to buy early/mid 2019 between North Sydney and the Central Coast. GBP/AUD is at a low but clearly it could get worse if Brexit negotiations go badly/ no deal but could do better if we get a decent deal/ not a terrible deal. What I and no one else can do is predict what is likely to happen but I am interested to know if anyone has been in a similar situation and what strategies you used to move money over, did you do it in stages, wait for the uptick, do it in £5000 chunks?... any/ all ideas welcome. Thanks Matt
  21. Hi there, I am looking to transfer money from the UK to buy a house in Oz within the next year or so. I've used a forex company to transfer smaller sums and I'm aware of options like forward contracts and limit orders to help protect against exchange rate fluctuations when moving larger sums. But I'd really like advice from someone who understands the markets on the best time to move the money. Does anyone know whether there are companies that offer this? A fellow Pom mentioned having transferred the proceeds of a UK house sale some years back, and says he paid commission to an advisor who helped him decide on the best moment to make the transfer, and the commission paid was well worth it. He can't remember who he used, and I can't find a service like this on google. My forex company say they don't offer anything like this. Obviously no one has a crystal ball, but I'm guessing an expert broker would be in a much better position to make the call than I am! Many thanks for any help!
  22. Just a quick reminder that we'll be holding one of our regular chat events tomorrow evening. Plan ahead by moving overseas with the experts! Moving to Australia is not without its ups and downs. To make sure you stay ahead of the game, it pays to be well informed. Everyone wants to start their new life down under with as much money as possible and there are a number of things you can do to ensure you make the most of your funds. Key topics always discussed on the forum include moving your possessions, shipping your car, transferring your money into your new Australian bank account and job hunting. Poms in Oz is hosting Live Chat sessions with leading experts in banking, currency exchange, international removals, job searching & vehicle importation and these sessions will take place on 22nd March 2011 from 8pm-10pm (UK Time). National Australia Bank, Moneycorp, PSS International Removals, Hire A Migrant and Iron Chef Imports will be on hand to answer any questions you may have about your move. To participate, click on the 'chat' menu option at the top of the page. Clicking on chat will launch the chat software. There will different 'rooms' for each of the different companies. Unregistered guests can participate by following this link - Chat with Industry Experts, then, once the chat software has loaded, tick the 'Guest' option at the top of the chat window, then choose a username and click 'Login' and enter the 'Moneycorp, NAB, PSS or Ironchef' chat rooms. National Australia Bank [img2=right]http://www.pomsinoz.com/images/chat-nab.png[/img2] Rebecca Joils will talk about the Australian Banking system providing you with some insights as to what is different between the UK and Australia. She will also talk about how straight forward it is to open an Australian Bank account before you leave home and some of the services you should consider. Moneycorp [img2=right]http://www.pomsinoz.com/images/chat-moneycorp.png[/img2] Whether you are moving to Australia, or living there already, John Kinghorn will bring you the latest updates on the Aussie dollar and provide insight into the key factors influencing market movements. Exchange rates are constantly fluctuating and transferring your funds at the right time, via the right channel, can make a big difference to the amount of money you actually end up with. PSS International Removals [img2=right]http://www.pomsinoz.com/images/chat-pss.png[/img2] One of the key ingredients when you are moving overseas is the planning of your removal. Liam Witham will be on hand to offer advice and answer any questions you may have regarding the packing and shipping of your household effects, including what items you can ship to Australia, Australian Customs procedures and AQIS. Whether you are importing household effects or just a vehicle, it is never too early to start researching or to start the process. Hire A Migrant [img2=right]http://www.pomsinoz.com/images/hireamigrant.jpg[/img2] Jamie Smith will answer questions about how Hire A Migrant can find your next employer while you remain at home with family - and your existing employer . Learn how Hire A Migrant makes direct approach to targeted employers, avoids unhelpful recruiters, impersonal job boards and taps into the 75% of jobs that are not advertised in Australia - so you can keep earning a wage in current employment and keep your family together. You'll also find out the true costs of doing-it-yourself to find a job in Australia. Iron Chef Imports [img2=right]http://www.pomsinoz.com/images/ironchef.gif[/img2] Iron Chef Imports is a small, Australian-based business that specialises in arranging transportation of vehicles from anywhere in the world to any port in Australia. For a fixed brokerage fee, we can help arrange your vehicle's import approval paperwork, shipping, customs clearance and registration in Australia. Aside from our fee, all other costs are invoiced to you directly - no hidden markups! We're also happy to advise you if it's worth bringing your car over before you start (that part's free!).
  23. [img2=right]http://www.pomsinoz.com/forum/../images/moneycorp-graph-pio.png[/img2] Australian dollar – review from Moneycorp Following the spike in autumn 2008, which took it to a five-year high at $2.70, sterling spent two years on the retreat, losing more than half its peak value in the process. It bottomed out at $1.51 in late December, an all-time low, rebounding to $1.60 in early January. Since then it has gone nowhere. For eight weeks the pound has inhabited a five-cent-wide channel between $1.5750 and $1.6250, moving up and down through the $1.60 midpoint two or three times a week. There is no particular reason for the Aussie's temporarily high correlation with sterling. If anything, the dollar should still be making hay while the sun shines on its 4.75% Cash Rate as it snows on the pound's 0.5% Bank Rate. The two currencies are subject to different pressures even apart from the interest rate differential. The UK economy is heavily dependent on the contribution from financial services, a sector that was hard-hit by the crisis and precipitated the recession. Australia's mining and agricultural sectors are big exporters of products for which there has been consistent demand from, among others, China. That steady flow of exports helped Australia to avoid recession entirely. Britain's economy grew by 1.5% in 2010 while growth in Australia pushed ahead by 2.7%. Investors are under no compulsion to keep currencies on the move, even though that is what they usually do. With the goings-on in Egypt, Libya and the Gulf they see no reason to send GBP/AUD one way or the other, hence this temporary stability in the exchange rate. But that it what it is likely to be; temporary. The next chapter For more than twenty years the pound spent the vast majority of its time wandering between $2 and $3. Against that background the Australian dollar's current strength could be a fluke, soon to be corrected. It could also reflect a fundamental change in the world order. The pain felt by Britain's economy is far from over. Negative growth in the fourth quarter of 2010 was a reminder that there is no simple choice between forward and reverse for an economy. America has shown that growth does not necessarily bring more jobs and greater spending power. UK government spending cuts and tax increases will be felt more deeply as the months go by and it will be years before things get back to "normal". House prices are stagnant and there is a yawning gulf between bid and offer. The indices from Halifax, Nationwide and the Land Registry that plot transaction prices show an average property changing hands at £162,854. The one from Rightmove that plots asking prices shows sellers asking £233,121 for that same average house. Another problem is the inflation that eats further into people's spending power. At 4% it is twice as high as it should be. Without January's VAT increase and high oil and food prices inflation would be fairly close to its 2% target but that's like saying without all this rain we would be able to sunbathe. It looks as though the Bank of England is beginning to lean towards an interest rate increase, if only to prove to the world that it is not asleep on the job. That prospect is helping the pound. The Australian dollar has already done that legwork. With no recession to worry about the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised its cash rate from 3% to 4.75% over the last 18 months. The rate could go higher still in the second half of this year. There has been no fall in house prices either, despite warnings of a bubble. The Economist said recently that Australian house prices are the most inflated in the world, 56% above fair value. It is not a new argument but it does make you wonder whether the 5.8% increase in 2010 reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics will be repeated in 2011. The other bubble faced by the Australian economy and the dollar is the one inflating in Southeast Asia. Beijing has so far been reluctant to lean too heavily on the rising commodity and asset prices that are fuelling inflation there but analysts worry that the longer the authorities do nothing, the bigger the problem they lay in store. If demand from China were to slow sharply it would dampen appetite for the Australian dollar and other commodity-related currencies. Summary After more than two months steady around $1.60 the only reason to expect the GBP/AUD exchange rate to move is because it cannot remain static forever. Still close to its all-time highs against the US dollar, the euro, the yen and the pound the Aussie is undoubtedly overvalued. That suggests the next move for sterling will be upward but it does not indicate when, nor does it prevent the Aussie becoming even more overvalued in the meantime. Click here for more information on the Australian dollar and receiving the best exchange rates.