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Found 18 results

  1. Okay, so it's clear now to anyone with half a brain out there that house prices in Australia are collapsing fast, with the data released yesterday highlighting massive falls in Perth and Brisbane especially but all around the country too! Sometimes it’s hard to believe this ponzi kept going for as long as it did. It should have popped last time but a round of unprecedented stimulus forced a last gasp of air into the bubble. All they did was kick the can down the road and now the collapse will be even worse. Posters have been predicting this outcome for some time, and now the scale of this coming collapse will surprise the majority of commentators, in the same way the GFC surprised most economists I'm a potential FHB (First Home Buyer) as are several family members and we can't help thinking this will be a scary thought for our politicians, and now that this (inevitable IMHO) crash is underway they'll be utterly desperate to avoid a UK or US style economic collapse led by the bursting of the housing bubble. What's worse, is that GDP has gone negative and we're only one quarter away from a technical recession. Get that, halfway to recession folks! This aint good news! (for housing bulls ha ha) :biggrin: I kind of suspect our government will panic and pressure the Reserve Bank to slash interest rates, and at the same time they'll unlease another barrage of stimulus spending, especially more grants and handouts to the bloated and inefficient housing sector. What does everyone else think? Will Labor make the same schoolboy errors all over again and pump up the housing bubble with more stimulus, or will they sit back let it all collapse this time and bring the country down with it? Awareness of the housing bubble is really seeping into the brains of the masses in Australia. The biggest driver of house prices is sentiment, when consumers are confident they’ll bid up prices to crazy levels irrespective of fundamentals, but now the tides turning, panic is setting in and they’ll all run for the exits at the same time, especially the speculators holding multiple investment properties. Even Kochie is in on the game, saying prices are crashing on morning television! Thoughts? BB.
  2. Guest

    Virtual Bubble Wrap

    virtual bubble wrap pop till you drop :biglaugh::biglaugh: http://www.i-am-bored.com/bored_link.cfm?link_id=27267
  3. Treasury warning on home price 'bubble. A SENIOR Treasury official has sounded the alarm over Australia's property market. He has warned that the prospect of a sudden and dramatic drop in prices is "the elephant in the room" and should not be ignored by the federal government. While the government and Reserve Bank insist Australia does not have a housing bubble - as some economists and the International Monetary Fund suggest - it remains such a worrying concept that Treasury has privately sought reassurance from its analysts that prices are not artificially high and that Australia does not face the kind of house price collapse that has hit Britain and the US. Documents obtained by The Weekend Australian under Freedom of Information laws show the Treasury officials preparing the so-called Red Book of briefs for the incoming government were as divided as private sector economists about the strength of the property market. Definitely something going on in Melbourne..... according to SQM Research there are about 35K houses, units and apartments for sale in Melbourne..... e.g. Bayside alone 2,500....
  4. I am sure there are a few who would disagree with the experts. Housing bubble a myth, says Westpac | News.com.au According to this article the future is looking rosier.:biggrin:
  5. Property market hit by flood of new listings: Report. Residential property listings increased in all cities during October with the market now flooded with more properties than during 2008, one expert has warned.... .....Melbourne has recorded the largest increase in property listings over the quarter, with listings jumping by 20.2% in the three months to October to a total of 26,521 houses and 9,547 units. Listings jumped by 28.6% over the year.
  6. connaust

    House Bubble

    House price bubble home page. News links, craziness.
  7. kernow43

    No house bubble in Oz for now?

    Looks like there will be no house bubble in the near future predicted by many here. Going to be solid growth for the next 3 years on the back of the mining boom and shortage in construction. House prices poised to rise, not burst: BIS Shrapnel report | The Australian
  8. A SERIOUS political headache looms for the next federal government over what to do with up to 200,000 international students. They have finished their courses but are allowed to stay in Australia a further 18 months. Both the Howard and Rudd administrations permitted the students to stay on to improve their English language skills or find a job in their chosen qualification, a pathway to permanent residency. But it has helped create a bubble in Australia's net overseas migration rate, which the Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday confirmed hit the highest on record in 2008-09 at 298,900. Ballooning immigration was the main factor behind the rapid population increase in recent years and has been the catalyst for the "big Australia" population debate that dominated the first stage of the election campaign. Leading demographer Peter McDonald said the sudden growth in the net overseas migration rate was exacerbated by those arriving in Australia on temporary visas who haven't left. He said the build-up of overseas students still in Australia after their courses were complete was likely to be somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000, and any political move to send the students home would create a huge domestic labour force issue. "These people are all employed in Australia as taxi drivers, in bakeries, in aged-care facilities, in hospitality. If a future government decided it wasn't going to give them permanent residency, this would mean many would drop out of employment, creating huge labour shortages in the areas they are working," Professor McDonald said. "I think if there were Australian workers to fill those jobs, they would be doing it now." "On the other hand, if they are able to stay, they will take up most of the permanent resident places under the skilled migration program. In other words, the government will be in a position that it will have to choose. "While it would have been better if it hadn't happened at all, if I was the government, I would take the students that are already here as a one-off, but also still take the mining engineers and the nurses and other skilled migrants. "I'd increase the permanent intake for a short period until these temporary student visa holders washed through the system." Julia Gillard opened the election campaign with a warning that Australia should not "hurtle" toward a population of 36 or 40 million by 2050, but later claimed the issue was not about immigration. The Coalition has a policy for the net overseas migration to be capped at 170,000 a year. The ABS figures yesterday showed that "over the past three years, NOM has more than doubled from 146,800 persons in 2005-06 to (an estimated) 298,900 in 2008-09, the highest on record". It also noted significant shifts in interstate migration, with Queensland and Western Australia recording net growth. Queensland gained 12,500 people from NSW alone, which continued to record significant losses. Overseas students inflate migration bubble | The Australian
  9. Just a bit of food for thought for those of you worried about property prices ,values etc. These are a few of the predictions I made some time ago and now being spoke about by some of the leading economists across the country. According to The Economist, Australian housing is now 56.1% overvalued based on the long run average of price to rent ratios. The price to rent ratio is seen as similar to that of the PE (price/earnings) ratio used to value shares. Australia is in 1st position on the leader board of overpriced property. In close 2nd is Spain at 53.4%, Hong Kong at 49.1%, France 39.7%, and Sweden 37%. According to Edward Chancellor, author of the book titled Crunch Time for Credit (2005) and a member of US Investment Firm GMO’s asset allocation team, Australia is in the midst of an unsustainable housing bubble that could burst at any time. It’s hard to argue with these claims when reports out today show Australian house prices have surged 20 percent this year, the most since the ABS started the house price series in 2002. Melbourne recorded an unsustainable gain of 27.7 percent followed by Sydney at 21.0 percent. This comes after reports in February that wage growth fell to it’s slowest pace in a decade last year. M Chancellor told The Australian, he estimates Australian house prices are more than 50 percent above their fair value, something he cites as a once in a 40 year event. “If house prices were to revert to their historic long-term average (ratio of average price to average income) they would fall quite considerably.” for more detailed info and graphs go to www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com
  10. Tax breaks to blame for rising house prices. The government has ignored Ken Henry’s prescription for more affordable housing. EVERY time the Reserve Bank of Australia raises interest rates, Wayne Swan expresses his deepest sympathy for hard-pressed Australians with mortgages… …. Of course, you’ll never catch politicians criticising rising house prices…… ….addressing the bias in investment housing towards negatively geared investment, which it describes as “a major distortion in the rental property market”….. The Australian Taxation Office says losses declared from negatively geared property grew by 35 per cent in 2007-08 to $8.6 billion… …While house prices in Australia have tripled since 1996, in the US they increased by 70 per cent….. But with the International Monetary Fund warning of the risk of a housing bubble and Australia a world leader in household debt and unaffordable housing, perhaps rising interest rates or other economic stresses will find their own drastic solution to the problem sooner or later…..
  11. Australia's housing bubble would defy worldwide trends and all historical evidence if it did not burst, a US investment fund has said. Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of Boston-based GMO, said Australian home prices continued to rise because the Reserve Bank's rapid interest rate cuts during the financial crisis “protected” the nation's housing bubble. “But if they (home prices in Australia and the UK) don't go back to ... the old trend line multiple of family income, which should drive house prices, it will be the first time in history that such a bubble is not broken,” Mr Grantham said in a recent interview with the Financial Times.“Now we have to see what happens when interest rates rise.” Of interest are the 200+ comments.....
  12. Property boom spurs spending spree. SURGING property prices appear to be driving a spending spree in Australia, with home owners taking out bigger mortgages to help fund the purchase of big-ticket items, from new cars to holidays.....But regulators and economists fear that the borrowing binge could leave home owners vulnerable to rising interest rates, while any sudden reversal of housing prices might tip many into negative equity - when the size of the loan exceeds the value of the property. Big four banks gorge on house mortgages. THE big banks may soon be forced to curb sales of mortgages after a feeding frenzy on housing over the past 18 months has lifted their share of the nation's property market to record levels. Any steps to slow mortgage sales are likely to hit first-home buyers hardest as they are considered riskier and surging property prices have forced them to seek larger loans Am sure British are familiar with this situation.....scary.....
  13. connaust

    House Price Bubble Warnings....

    Melbourne Age newspaper editorial titled: A housing boom doesn't mean houses for all Here and in Australia's other big cities, housing prices are on the rise again. And, as always, the soaring prices carry both good and bad news. As Age economics editor Tim Colebatch argued on our opinion page earlier this week, property prices cannot balloon indefinitely. ''Melbourne house prices have trebled since 1997,'' he wrote, ''not because our incomes trebled but because we paid those prices by a massive increase in debt.''
  14. Not sure if this is the correct forum---but has anyone[Lukeskywalker??] seen the Sydney Morning Herald article in their World section on the Australian housing bubble.Frightening--read and inwardly digest.This is a reputable writer and newspaper.
  15. This popped up in the comments section of a Melbourne Age article: " Oh, what a lovely recession … for comfortable old folks" suggesting that older generation (of property owners) are benefitting at the expense of the younger generation in employment, benefits, housing, inflated salaries etc. Found this below explaining the supposed "housing shortage" that media and real estate industry keep on telling us about..... Property Spruikers Claim Australia Suffers from a ‘Chronic Housing Shortage’ Last Friday we sent a request to Money Morning readers. We asked if they had any authentic research to support the claim made by property spruikers that Australia suffers from a 'chronic housing shortage.' We assumed there must be such research in existence. After all, it is the main basis the property bulls make to support the idea of continually rising property prices. Fascinating article ...... and explains how the media have been boosting while the property industry has been spruiking and the govt. inducing...... rhymes
  16. Guest

    my bubble was burst

    hi i filled in some details on australias house site and someone got back to my husband yesterday because we wanted some info on sponsership anyway he wouldnt even discuss that with my husband and he sounded like he was in a really bad mood lol,, he told chris (husband ) that it would cost around 5 grand for visas as we have 6 children i was expecting it to be more actually and also it takes 18 mnths to complete which is fine ,but then he said once the visa is through we all have to visit oz to activate the visa before moving there and not to sell our house cos australia changes the rules all the time and might not need skilled workers in 12 months and we would have no home .so we could never afford to all visit then move and all our money is tied up in our home so it seems impossible .
  17. in oz is the bubble on a spirit level on the bottom of the glass instead of the top
  18. Well spent hours researching Australia and Perth. Never been there but feel like I have. Waiting for reply from TRA but cant wait to get there until OH phones me from Perth, He's gone on a fact finding trip for 10 days and he seems so negative (earnings, cost of living, house prices etc). Feel so down, Worried that this could be the end of my dream. Jan :cry: