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Found 22 results

  1. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    Dragging the Aussie lower was the latest Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting minutes with guidance pointing to a clear easing bias moving forward. "They no longer talk about an accumulation of evidence in order to ease again, and highlight risks to the global economy,” wrote National Australia Bank senior FX strategist Rodrigo Catril, adding "It certainly sounds a lot more dovish than before.” For Sterling, Brexit remains the key to the outlook ahead of Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's BoE with focus falling on the Supreme Court on Tuesday as they open a case into PM Johnson's prorogation of Parliament. UK and EU officials are also set to resume Brexit talks after agreeing to host daily negotiations in a bid to thrash out a last minute deal. Risk-off was the dominant theme for currency markets on Monday while the GBP was facing the double-whammy of resurgent no-deal Brexit fears as Tory Brexiteers continue to insist the UK will leave the common currency bloc on October 31st. While there was some positivity out of a meeting between PM Johnson and the EU's Juncker in which the leaders agreed to daily Brexit talks moving forward, time's quickly running out to secure an outcome other than no-deal. "The fact remains there is still a decent chance of Britain not able to secure a deal and that is prompting investors to take profits after last week’s rally,” wrote currency strategist Thu Lan Nguyen of Commerzbank. For the Aussie, RBA minutes are due overnight which should set the tone moving forward while currency markets as a whole will likely take their cue from geopolitical risks - with a focus on the US response to the attacks on Saudi oil refineries - as well as central bank policy with the Fed and Bank of England releases likely to impact the cross.
  2. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    GBP/AUD UPDATE: The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate remained on the defensive on Tuesday afternoon, with the pairing trading at around AU$1.7867 in response to heightened political uncertainty in the UK.Markets are currently bracing for the unknown as MPs attempt to pass a bill compelling the government to seek an extension to Brexit, whilst Boris Johnson is preparing to call for a snap election if he is defeated. Helping the ‘Aussie’ to press its advantage was the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest rate decision, where an upbeat economic outlook helped to boost AUD exchange rates. The Australian Dollar’s period of weakness in August has not been enough to keep the British Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate climbing, and after markets opened today the pair tumbled once again. The Pound’s volatility is worsening on a mixture of UK economic fears and expectations for Brexit chaos, but the Australian Dollar has been unable to capitalise on Sterling weakness amid global trade fears and anticipation for upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) news.
  3. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD

    The GBP/AUD exchange rate is trading at around 1.8084 at the start of the new week having fallen 0.75% in the week before, and we note the pair to be trading in an increasingly narrow sideways range, with a decisive break higher or lower required to define the trend. With a politically-charged week of UK politics lying ahead, we could see some fresh direction injected into this exchange rate over coming days: the question is what are the levels readers should be watching. The Australian Dollar remains a proxy for investor sentiment towards China, and specifically the U.S.-China trade war. The Australian Dollar extended lower on Friday as 'risk assets' fell from favour with investors ahead of a weekend that is expected to yield a further escalation of the U.S.-China trade war although the Antipodean unit is tipped by multiple analysts to remain under pressure for a while to come. President Donald Trump moved ahead Sunday with a new tariff of 15% aimed at the remaining balance of Chinese exports to the U.S. not yet covered by punitive levies, although it will be December 15 before all of the country's trade with the U.S. is fully tariffed. Those exports waiting to be tariffed are worth around $300 bn each year, while the U.S. has $75 bn of exports to China that are set to be targeted in retaliation.
  4. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate is holding on to its recent gains with rates for GBP Vs AUD sitting at 1.8140. The markets will now focus on all the latest Brexit developments this week with political fireworks expected as we approach the 31st October Brexit deadline. High volatility is to be expected for GBP to AUD exchange rates as parliament will return 3rd September after the summer recess. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson made clear to MP’s yesterday that there will be no way of stopping Brexit and that Britain will leave the EU at the end of October. There has been much talk of a vote of no confidence which could be issued by leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn although whether he could succeed in putting in place a caretaker Prime Minister remains to be seen. There is also the very real prospect of a general election something that could see additional volatility for GBP/AUD. Those looking to buy or sell Australian dollars are likely to see heightened volatility in these coming weeks with a big swing in either direction depending on whether or not a Brexit deal is reached. Those with a sizeable amount to transfer would be wise to consider planning around these developments as the 31st October deadline counts down. There has been much talk of a vote of no confidence which could be issued by leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn although whether he could succeed in putting in place a caretaker Prime Minister remains to be seen. There is also the very real prospect of a general election something that could see additional volatility for GBP/AUD. Those looking to buy or sell Australian dollars are likely to see heightened volatility in these coming weeks with a big swing in either direction depending on whether or not a Brexit deal is reached. Those with a sizeable amount to transfer would be wise to consider planning around these developments as the 31st October deadline counts down.
  5. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The GBP/ AUD exchange rate is trading at around 1.7727 on Monday, 0.90%b lover than at the same point last week. The pair has started to sell off steeply after rebounding to a multi - week high at 1.82. Although the overarching downtrend is still intact a break back below the trendline is required to confirm the downtrend. We retain a neutral outlook over the next 5 days, with a break higher or lower above various levels required to confirm the next direction of the trend. The most important data releases for the Aussie in the week ahead are employment data on Thursday and Chinese data on Wednesday. Australian employment data is forecast to show a 14k rise in July whilst unemployment is expected to remain at 5.8% when released at 2.30 BST on Thursday. This suggests a slightly positive result. The data could impact interest rate expectations and therefore the Aussie. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been aggressively cutting rates of late and this has been pressuring the Aussie lower since lower interest rates tend to weigh on currencies. A worse-than-expected result could increase speculation of a further interest rate cuts from the RBA in September - current market expectations are around 40% of a cut then.
  6. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has declined since the start of May with sterling losing value against all major currencies. Last week the Bank of England confirmed that British companies are close to a near record in regards to sterling deposits switched into Foreign Currency for the month of June. The Bank of England’s commentary and the data that supports it shows that businesses within the UK that have exposure to foreign currency are buying upfront due to threat of a no deal Brexit and could be the reason why the pound is continuing to lose value. The ongoing Brexit saga is going to be the key driver for the pound against the Australian dollar in the weeks and months to come. Since the start of May mid market exchange rates have continued to fall. If it’s the case Pro EU MP’s fail to stop Boris from crashing out of the EU, then the pound could see further decline. This was supported by the Bank of England last week, as Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney warned that the pound could crash on the back of a no deal, and consequently also cut growth forecasts. If you are buying Australian dollars in the months to come and are concerned about how Brexit could impact you, feel free to get in touch with me and I will be able to provide you with guidance on the markets.
  7. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD update

    The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has come under added pressure following new Brexit developments, which are once again starting to impact on sterling exchange rates. Rates for GBP vs AUD had rallied higher since last Friday when US President Donald Trump delivered on his promise to impose additional tariffs on Chinese good coming into the US. The uncertainty has continued after China then imposed 60 billion worth of tariffs on US exports escalating the trade war further. Overnight has seen the rift widen after China has reportedly said that they may not continue with these trade negotiations unless the US shows “sincerity”. Any developments in this spat are likely to see a reaction for the pound to Australian dollar exchange rate. The Australian dollar also faces a further slide lower as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) considers cutting interest rates. New Zealand have already cut interest rates this month signalling the mood in this part of the world for the commodity currencies. Concerns in the Australian economy and the recent weak retail sales data continue to point the RBA in the direction of cutting interest rates putting added pressure on the Australian dollar. In the UK the Brexit debate is heating up ahead of European elections to be held 23rd May. Major volatility for sterling exchange rates is expected around this time with many voters expected to leave the two main parties for the Liberal Democrats, Change UK and the newly formed Brexit Party. If there is a major shift towards the Brexit Party under Nigel Farage then this may be seen as a reaffirmation of the Leave vote and could help shape the direction of Brexit with a potentially cleaner Brexit to become possible, something that would be seen as negative for the sterling exchange rates. It should not be underestimated how much of a political stir these elections could cause which could see high currency volatility. The fourth and final vote on the existing withdrawal agreement will be held in the first week of June. This event will likely see major volatility for GBP to AUD rates. The Prime Minister is expected to lose this vote and her departure from office is to be expected shortly after this date with Conservative MPs already preparing for a quick leadership contest. A change of leader will almost certainly have a bearing on the direction of Brexit and hence the strength of the pound.
  8. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    Pound to Australian dollar rates have been trending lower as the market becomes more concerned over the outcome on Brexit and there has also been rising belief of progress on the trade wars, which have acted as a major drain for the global economy and sentiments generally. Clients looking to make a purchase of Australian dollars with pounds could find they become unstuck if there is a sudden change in the political situation for the UK. There has been many rumours that we could soon find Theresa May on the ropes once again, having to defend her position as Prime Minister. UK local elections are just around the corner, with the votes on May 2nd and this will be a big factor in determining the public mood with the Conservatives. There has been a growing expectation that there will need to be some change of approach in order to see Brexit make passage. Concerns over what type of Brexit is on offer could easily see the pound losing ground quite quickly. This week the focus will be on lots of talks with Labour which are unlikely to yield too much progress with the Labour party spotting an opportunity to make some further headway themselves, by frustrating Mrs May and her party.
  9. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) was turbo - charged overnight on Tuesday with the currency racing higher against the Pound (GBP) and the majority of its other peers following the release of some stronger - than - expected economic data from China. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistic, Chinese GDP held at 6.4% through the first quarter of 2019. While this left growth at a decade low it beat expectations that growth would have slowed to 6.3% prompting suggestions that China’s recent slowdown may have bottomed out. This was also accompanied by some impressive Chinese industrial statistics, with year-on-year growth in industrial production reported to have rocketed up from 5.3% to 8.5%, blowing past forecasts of a modest rise to 5.9%. The accompanying industrial data may have been even more supportive of the rise in risk sentiment according to some analysts. Looking ahead, the Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate may come under additional pressure on Thursday as the UK publishes its latest retail sales figures. Sterling looks likely to stumble following the data as economists forecast that sales growth will have slumped in March, falling from 0.4% to -0.3% as consumers limited their purchases amid heighted Brexit uncertainty. In the meantime the release of Australia’s employment figures overnight could elicit some weakness in the Australian Dollar.
  10. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has made some small gains to start this week after a poorer performance from the GBP to AUD pair last week. The general move lower in the last couple of weeks has been influenced by a weaker pound due to continued Brexit uncertainty but also a stronger Australian dollar as commodity prices have spiked higher. In the UK, Brexit remains the single biggest driver for sterling exchange rates although news on this front it likely to be less in these coming weeks with Parliament taking the Easter recess. The UK is now preparing to contest the European elections following the agreed extension for Britain’s withdrawal from the EU until 31st October 2019. The markets are now preparing for the implications from this extension in that the Conservative party could lose a great deal of seats in the EU elections. With the newly formed Brexit party being campaigned by Nigel Farage there could be something of a revolution in British politics. The local elections could also see a major shift in voting patterns, with this carrying much risk for the pound. Any big changes could result in major volatility for the GBP vs AUD pair.
  11. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates drifted lower on Tuesday afternoon, this comes as Theresa May went on a last minute charm offensive in Paris and Berlin in attempt to persuade Emmanuel Macron and Angel Merkel to back her request for a short Brexit extension. EU leaders will decide on Wednesday whether to grant Theresa May another Brexit delay or leave the UK to face a no- deal Brexit on Friday, an outcome that will unnerve most GBP investors. Demand for the Pound is unlikely to see any significant improvement in the near term, with investors wary ahead of Friday’s Brexit deadline.Unless Theresa May agrees another deadline extension with EU leaders the GBP/AUD exchange rate looks set to remain biased to the downside this week.If a sense of clarity over the UK’s future relationship with the EU starts to emerge, though, the Pound could recover some of its recently lost ground.On the other hand, if May fails to secure a further extension of the current deadline GBP exchange rates may come under further pressure as the risk of a no-deal Brexit intensifies. AUD exchange rates could find fresh encouragement on the back of February’s Australian home loans and investment lending figures, meanwhile.Forecasts point towards home loans bouncing back from the previous month’s -1.2% contraction, delivering modest growth of 0.5% on the month.While investment lending is expected to remain within negative territory any improvement on January’s contraction may give the Australian Dollar a modest boost against its rivals.However, if Australian lending shows signs of weakening as consumers and businesses rein in their borrowing this could offer the GBP/AUD exchange rate some support.
  12. Anthony from Moneycorp

    AUD and GBP Update

    Of late Pound Sterling and the Australian Dollar have been two of the best-performing major currencies in global FX markets: it is therefore little wonder that the GBP/AUD exchange rate reflects something of a deadlock. As such, the GBP/AUD exchange rate is trading at 1.8338 at the start of the new week, little changed from the week before. Sterling has exhibited strength on the back of the news that Theresa May was reaching out to Jeremy Corbyn in order to try to forge a consensus on Brexit that could actually result in a deal that a majority in the House of Commons might support. The Australian Dollar has meanwhile benefited from a robust recovery in global investor sentiment, with markets being particularly optimistic that a trade deal between the U.S. and China is nigh.
  13. Anthony from Moneycorp

    AUD Update

    The Aussie took third place behind the Japanese yen and US dollar. It lost narrowly to the USD and strengthened by two thirds of a cent against the pound. Australian economic data were conspicuous by their absence. The only ones to appear were for private sector credit in February. Lending to individuals and companies increased by a monthly 0.3% and was 4.2% higher on the year. Investors did not really notice. What they did notice, though, was guidance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that its next change to interest rates was likely to be a cut. Although there is no direct link between the RBNZ and the Reserve Bank of Australia, investors decided that such a move would be likely to affect the thinking of the RBA. It does not have much room to take rates lower but it might be inclined to try to find some.
  14. The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has been testing some of the best levels since before the EU vote June 2016. Brexit is however far from settled and we could easily see some big changes in the currency markets soon. Positivity from Brexit could easily see the GBP/AUD rate top the 1.90 level, whilst the threat of no-deal Brexit could sink us back below 1.80. This week has seen the pound to Australian dollar exchange rate drop back slightly from the higher 1.80’s and the 1.8830 reached on the 14th March, as Theresa May’s position remains very much under threat. There is currently uncertainty over whether or not she is likely to have her job at the end of this week! The outlook for GBP/AUD rates is very mixed as we approach the finality on Brexit. Much will hinge on what lies head for the rest of this week. Theresa May is supposed to be having another ‘meaningful’ vote although these appear to be quickly becoming meaningless in my opinion. Last night parliament voted to take control of the some of the next stages which could open us up to a second Referendum or General Election. Mrs May is still determined to have her vote but it is looking increasingly like she will struggle and in any event it will be voted down. Clients expecting some certainty this week on Brexit will now find the dates of the 12th April and the 22nd May more interesting. These are the dates given by the EU as an extension. The latter date being conditional on Mrs May’s Brexit deal being passed by the Government, which is so far not looking likely. Those buying Australian dollars might wish to use this uncertain time to be making key preparations around what is likely to be a very turbulent period for GBP/AUD rates.
  15. Anthony from Moneycorp

    AUD and GBP Update

    Pound Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rate fell to a fresh low for the week thus far in early Tuesday trading as rebounding risk sentiment lifted the Aussie and Brexit-related uncertainty kept a lid on GBP upside. Brexit retains its influence as a key factor with developments therein expected to continue to drive price action for the GBP. Following Monday's parliamentary session, focus now turns to Wednesday's indicative votes which will give MPs the opportunity to present, and vote on, alternative Brexit plans. Aside from a panel discussion including RBA assistant governor, Christopher Kent, the schedule is clear for the Aussie with the antipodean currency expected to be at the mercy of risk-appetite, which for now at least remains positive.
  16. The Pound to Australian Dollar rate is set to beging trading around 1.8648 Sunday after falling more than one percent in the previous week, although studies of the charts suggest the outlook for the days ahead is a bullish one. The GBP/AUD pair fell at the start of last week after it the government requested from Brussels only a very short delay to the Brexit process. It recovered later, however, after the EU left the door open a much longer extension of the Article 50 negotiating window, and potentially an indefinite one if Prime Minister Theresa May fails again to get the EU Withdrawal Agreement through parliament. Pundits are still suggesting she will struggle to win enough votes for her deal to be approved next week so there is at least one fundamental reason for why the Pound could rise during the week ahead as a third failure of the Withdrawal Bill to clear parliament might see the market fixate on the odds of Brexit being abandoned by the government or prevented through a second referendum. The main event for the Australian Dollar in the week ahead is likely to be geopolitical in nature since the domestic data releases in the calendar are fairly low key. U.S.-China trade talks are scheduled to kick off again on Thursday, 28 March. Any positive opening statements may support the Chinese Renmimbi and Australian Dollar although markets could soon begin to grow impatient with a lack of detail on the final shape of the trade deal.
  17. The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate could lose further value as the UK heads closer to the 29th Brexit date with no real sign of what lies ahead. Whilst it is accepted that there should be some form of extension, the EU will only agree to this is the current deal is passed by the UK parliament. If the deal is rejected again we could see the pound lose further value as it increases the likelihood of a no-deal scenario. GBPAUD exchange rates could then slip below 1.80 and potentially below the 1.77 lows of 2019. Overnight there has also been Australian unemployment figures released, with Unemployment slightly better than expected at 4.9% versus the 5% prediction. This is at odds with the recent expectations we could see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates this year. It is likely that pound to Australian dollar rates will be very difficult to predict with lots of sudden twists and turns ahead. Today is the UK Bank of England decision which could well provide some further volatility. The outcome of Brexit negotiations and the changing impression is likely to remain the main driver of movements on pound to Australian dollar exchange rates.
  18. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP/AUD Sheds Last Week's Gains

    Pound to Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Sheds Last Week’s Impressive Gains Fresh frustration from the UK and EU over a Brexit impasse, with just over one week until Brexit, led to a deluge of unexpected developments yesterday that sent Brexit confidence and the Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate plummeting. Last week saw GBP/AUD surge from 1.8467 to 1.8763, as investors bet against a no-deal Brexit. However, since yesterday’s ultimatums from the EU and from the UK government, no-deal Brexit fears returned once again and GBP/AUD essentially shed those gains. The Australian Dollar (AUD) was more easily able to capitalise on the Pound’s (GBP) weakness this morning, due to dovishness from the Federal Reserve making investors more willing to take risks.
  19. Anthony from Moneycorp

    On the road to recovery?

    The Australian Dollar weakened on Wednesday, helping the Pound-to-Australian-Dollar rate to recover onto a firmer footing, although analysts say the Brexit saga playing out in London is a double edged sword for the Antipodean and British currencies. A messy turn of events in London over the coming days would send Pound Sterling reeling once again but it could also have adverse implications for the Aussie Dollar in its own right, given the likely impact on the U.S. Dollar and the Antipodean unit's sensitivity to changes in risk appetite. "AUD/USD has been largely unaffected by Brexit developments. However, if the UK Parliament vote for a hard Brexit tomorrow, AUD/USD could fall as the USD gets bid in the global foreign exchange market, and if/as global equities decline," says Richard Grace, head of FX strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
  20. Anthony from Moneycorp

    Brexit Uncertainty for GBP and AUD

    Over the last 12 months, the property market down under has been causing major problems for the Australian dollar. Lending standards alongside the global slowdown has caused property prices to take a tumble in the major cities. If the home loan numbers fail to hit 1%, the Australian dollar could have a tough week as it increased the chances of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting interest rates this year. However Brexit negotiations are likely to be the most important driver for GBPAUD exchange rates. If Theresa May has managed to sway MPs to vote in favour of her Brexit deal I expect the pound to make further inroads against the Australian dollar. However, if MPs decide to extend Article50 or vote to crash out of the EU this could have a negative impact on the pound and rates could fall to levels we become accustom to last year.
  21. simmo

    Brexit Poll

    With all the hype and project fear now calmed down.. how would you vote? Have you changed your mind?
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