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AJM22

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  1. 5600 applications are ahead of you in the queue so based on the annual cap of 3600 places you can expect to wait another 1.5 years.
  2. Hi April Yes based on the annual cap of 3600 places and the number of applications in the queue up to July 2017 it would look like the applications are unlikely to be processed for another 5.5 years if assuming a 5% rejection rate. When applying for an 870 visa there is a condition that once the 870 visa has been granted that you cannot then apply for a 143 visa afterwards. 143 visa applications that have already been applied for are not affected if subsequently applying for an 870 visa. Hopefully you will be able to catch up with your parents during 2022.
  3. Hi Ruby You are welcome. Enjoy your stay in Australia whist your 143 visa is being processed. Hopefully it gives people a more realistic idea of how long it may take for their applications to be processed based on the current cap level of 3600 CPV places and queue to enable them to make better plans in meantime. Ideally the Immi website should really display how many applications are on hand at any point in time to allow new applicants to make an estimate of how long processing might take based on the annual cap level set at the time as the current situation where new applications made in August 2021 may take 16-17 years to be processed is ridiculous.
  4. Higher resolution version of table attached The following table gives you an idea of how much longer applications may take to be processed/granted from 1st September 2021 depending on month application was originally made based on the current annual cap of 3600 Contributory Parent Visa places versus different rejection rates at 0% 5% 10% 15% and 20% (Columns 8 to 12) . Refusal rate for 2020-2021 was 6.70%.
  5. This petition EN3366 is about increasing the quota of family and parent visa. Please sign the petition and bring this to more people’s attention. Just one click may bring our parents one year earlier. This is the link below and please get as more people as you are able to, really appreciate it. https://www.aph.gov.au/e-petitions/petition/EN3366
  6. The migration report for migration year 2020/2021 is available at the following link https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-stats/files/report-migration-program-2020-21.pdf In migration year the 4500 Parent Visa Cap were fulfilled including the reduced number of 3600 Contributory Visas even during Covid-19. It would therefore appear that the shortfall on grant of Parent visas in previous 4 migration years was deliberate to reduce the number of parent visas being granted. Refusal/Rejection rates were 6.70% in migration year 2021/2022. Outstanding contributory parent visa applications in train as of 15th September 2021 is available at the following link. 288 applications from May 2016 are yet to processed as of this date. https://www.gm-parent-visas.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/CP-visa-applications-in-train-15-Sept-2021.pdf The following table gives you an idea of how much longer applications may take to be processed/granted from 1st September 2021 depending on month application was originally made based on the current annual cap of 3600 Contributory Parent Visa places versus different rejection rates at 0% 5% 10% 15% and 20% (Columns 8 to 12) . Refusal rate for 2020-2021 was 6.70%. So basically someone applying for a Contributory Parent Visa in August 2021 will now have to wait 16 to 17 years for their application to be processed assuming the current annual CPV CAP of 3600 places and current outstanding queue level of 65834 CPV applications. https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/visas/getting-a-visa/visa-processing-times/family-visa-processing-priorities/parent-visas-queue-release-dates There is currently a senate enquiry going on into the problems to do with the queue for family and parent visas and the outcome of this was originally meant to be made available 10th August 2021 but has now been delayed until 25th November 2021 probably due to Covid-19 issues in Australia. https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Legal_and_Constitutional_Affairs/FamilyandPartnerVisas It is unlikely that this enquiry will change the current situation as the current backlog is partly due to recommendations made in the Australian Productivity Review of April 2016. https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/migrant-intake/report/migrant-intake-report.pdf The document provide an interesting insight into recommended policy (In relation to Family reunion see pages 469 to 485) From this document it appears that permanent visas for parents will be reduced significantly/discouraged in the future due to modelled lifetime costs per individual that will be incurred by the Australian taxpayer during their lifetime after a permanent visa has been granted. In this report it suggests based on financial modelling that $335000 to $410000 costs are incurred by the taxpayer over the lifetime of every permanent parent visa granted and that the 143 visa cost of $47295 (now $47825) is heavily subsidised and only covers a fraction of this lifetime cost. It would however be interesting to be able to see the cost breakdown by category per individual from any modelling to better understand how the $335000 to $410000 cumulated lifetime fiscal cost per individual is apportioned as it probably does not assume that many parents that may be relocating to Australia may already have sufficient assets accumulated in their original country of origin such as property, savings and pensions which will be used to live on when relocating to Australia. In this document the following recommendations were made to Australian Government Two of the recommended measures from this review have already been implemented in the form of the 870 visa (flexible temporary parent visa) and reduction in the annual cap for contributory parent visas (reduced from 7175 places in 2018/2019 migration year to the current level of 3600 places in 2020/2021 and 2021/2022 migration years). It is possible that the shortfall in granted parents visas in the four migration year periods from 1st July 2016 to 30th June 2020 against the available cap is deliberate in response to recommendations made in this report until the annual cap was officially lowered to 3600 CPV places in 2020/2021. In previous migration years the annual cap in any migration year was always fulfilled with granted parent visas. Within the document on page 483 one of the recommendations is to substantially increase the charge for Contributory Parent Visas fee levels initially by 100% by doubling the fee. This recommendation has not happened yet.
  7. So your application will be behind the 29498 CPV applications in the queue still yet to be released for processing in the period June 2016 to end May 2018 which are subject to the annual cap of 3600 places. These will take between 6 to 7 years to clear depending on rejection rates assuming the annual CPV cap of 3600 places are fulfilled each year .
  8. Huubang - see link below. Your queue date will be the same date as your application lodgement date if you have not received a letter ( for applications prior to June 1st 2018). “Haven’t received a queue date letter? It has been found that some Contributory Parent Subclass 143 visa applications have received queue date letters and others have not. The Department has provided that all applications lodged prior to 1 June 2018 have automatically been allocated a queue date that is the same as the date of lodgement.” https://www.ahclawyers.com/news-articles/updates-on-contributory-parent-subclass-143-queue-and-covid-19-biosecurity-emergency-extended As of June 2021 Contributory Parent Visa applications up to a queue date of May 2016 have been released for final processing. This is no change from June 2020.  CPV applications from June 2016 (2051 applications ) will next to be released for processing under the current annual cap of 3600 CPV places. https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/visas/getting-a-visa/visa-processing-times/family-visa-processing-priorities/parent-visas-queue-release-dates In regards to when your application from June 2018 may be processed and granted check the tables in previous posts. There are 31173 CPV applications in the queue yet to be released for processing in the period June 2016 to June 2018. Based on the current 3600 CPV annual cap the estimated time is another 6 to 8 years from now before your CPV143 visa application will be processed/ granted depending on rejection rates in each migration year and assuming that that 3600 CPV visas are granted annually to fulfil the annually cap.
  9. Hi Linda Many thanks for the info about the Productivity Review for 2016. I managed to find the document and it does provide an interesting insight. (In relation to Family reunion pages 469 to 485) https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/migrant-intake/report/migrant-intake-report.pdf Certainly from this document it appears that permanent visas for parents will be reduced significantly due to modelled lifetime costs per individual that will be incurred by the Australian taxpayer of which entitlement to state pension after being resident for 10 years is also factored into the model as well as other criteria. It would be interesting to be able to see the cost breakdown by category per individual from any modelling to better understand how the $335000 to $410000 cumulated lifetime fiscal cost is apportioned. As you highlighted two of the recommended measures from this review have already been implemented in the form of the 870 visa and reduction in the annual cap. Maybe the 870 visa should be altered slightly to permit further residence in excess of the maximum of 10 years which is currently possible by applying for a 5 year visa and then renewing for a further 5 years to allow parents who can demonstrate they have sufficient income and assets to continue be reunited with their family. As also highlighted it may also be desirable to create a separate "non permanent" subclass type visa that allows an extended stay for the parent but at the same time allows them the right to work unlike the 870 visa where the condition is that they are not allowed to work.
  10. Hi Linda I am not sure if the 125 reserved places are put back into queue if they are not taken up. There are of course some cases that carry over into the next migration year if the annual parent visa cap is fulfilled in a given migration year however the noticeable change from 2016/2017 migration year onwards is that the annual parent visa cap is no longer fulfilled/exhausted when prior to this parent visas were always granted to ensure the parent visa cap in a given migration year was used up. The reason for this sudden change is unknown and the shortfall in parent visas being granted to fulfil the annual cap in the period 1st July 2016 to 30th June 2020 is 7528 places which is the equivalent of an extra 2 years waiting in the queue based on the current CPV cap of 3600/annum. I am unsure if the 7528 places that were not fulfilled are rolled over over into the the next migration year in addition to the CPV cap for that particular migration year ( eg for 2020/2021 CPV cap of 3600 places + 7528 places that were not granted in the 4 previous migration years). It is highly likely that unfulfilled visa places are not rolled over and the allocation is lost. In December 2021 the Migration report for 2020/2021 will be available and it will be interesting to see if annual cap of 3600 CPV visas for 2020/2021 were fulfilled/granted and whether the trend over the past 4 migration periods has been reversed. https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-statistics/statistics/visa-statistics/live/migration-program
  11. Hi Linda The chart is not skewed. It shows 143 CPV applications/month and the cumulative total for 143 applications in columns 2 and 3 for information purposes. Columns 4 and 5 show Total CPV applications/month and cumulative CPV applications and these two columns include 173,143, 884 &864 contributory visas. The timescales are based on total CPV visas and not only 143 CPV visas. The table is designed give some estimates of timescales for processing based on current cap levels and actual outstanding queue levels which will be considerably longer especially for applications made 2018 onwards.
  12. Estimated processing time versus application date for Contributory Parent Visas based on outstanding queue 30th October 2020 and annual cap of 3600 CPC places Annual Parent Visa Cap Level v Parent Visas Granted. CPV and NCPV Queue levels at end of each migration year. Parent Visa Refusal Rate v Migration Year. Family Stream Visa Places v Migration Year. Parent Visa annual Cap levels v Migration Year.
  13. I do not think processing of applications from June 2016 will take over two years. Release for final processing is dependent on whether the annual cap for Contributory Parent Visas has been exhausted in a given migration year. In your case for applications made 31st October 2016 the cumulative total number of CPV applications in the queue yet to be released for final processing from June 2016 to October 2016 is 5407 against the current annual cap of 3600 places. If the annual cap is fulfilled as it used to be in all migration years pre July 2016 you would expect your application to be processed within 1.5 years (5407 divided by 3600 places). However there will be applications that will be refused and the refusal rate is anywhere between 6% to 18% which which could mean that your application could be processed any time between 1.2 years to 1.4 years from now but this would assume that the annual cap of 3600 CPV places is fulfilled each year which currently has not been the case even pre Covid-19. I can understand your frustration and this is why the Australian Office of Home Affairs ideally need to display a realistic timescale for processing based on outstanding applications in the queue and the current annual cap level at any time to allow individuals who are applying for a CPV to make realistic plans and to have a more accurate indication of how long processing may take so they do not get there hopes up. The 143 CPV used to be processed in under 2 years however this was when applications outstanding in the queue were around 10000 to 12000 with an annual cap of 7500 CPV places. Anyone applying for a 143 CPV today would probably have to wait at least 13 - 15 years for their application to be processed based on the current number of applications in the queue and the reduced annual cap of 3600 CPV places available to be granted each year. I do not think this last point was made particularly clear in the recent Senate Enquiry and really anyone applying for a 143 CPV should be aware of this so they can make informed decisions on whether to sell up and move into temporary accommodation assuming that the 143 CPV is a fast track for permanent residency into Australia as this is no longer the case. Processing of applications 2 to 4 years from date the application is made is no longer valid. https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Legal_and_Constitutional_Affairs/FamilyandPartnerVisas I really hope you application is processed within 2 years.
  14. As of June 2021 Contributory Parent Visa applications up to a queue date of May 2016 have been released for final processing. This is no change from June 2020. CPV applications from June 2016 (2051 applications ) will next to be released for processing under the current annual cap of 3600 CPV places. https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/visas/getting-a-visa/visa-processing-times/family-visa-processing-priorities/parent-visas-queue-release-dates
  15. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/12876550 “The expansion of the Global Talent Scheme at a time when movement is limited has raised questions about how Australia could hope to fill 15,000 places when it managed just 4,100 of a cap of 5,000 last year. Jackson Taylor, migration lawyer for Hammond Taylor, cautioned that the balance may have shifted too far towards "getting bang for your buck" out of the migration program, and the pandemic might highlight its flaws. "You don't want to build a migration program where the only way people are going here is either they are millionaires or they're engineers and doctors," he said. "There needs to be a program for people who just want to be part of society."
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