Another point for a bit of additional context, the reason why I would rather not go down the route of an employer sponsored PR (the 186) is because of the 2 year contract. My understanding is that neither me or my employer is held to this agreement but the intention at the onset of the agreement must be that I am willing to continue my employment for the length of the contract (or at least have the intention to do so). Unfortunately, I have no intention of doing this and don't want to start my relationship with the immigration department on this footing. Would much rather be 100% forthright in my initial application and be free to make choices independent of this requirement.
Considering the above, I think I am leaning to toward possibly applying for the 190 in January once I have three years of relevant Australian employment. With the 5 point state nomination, I should have 95 points. If I apply for the 189, it'll be 90 points (also in January) and that does not look like it will be enough.
Would 95 points for a 190 be enough? Do understand that there will be point movements over the next few months and it is not possible to say for sure but just looking for rough likelihood so I can plan ahead. If not enough, will likely bite the bullet and go through my employer with the 186.