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Anthony from Moneycorp

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About Anthony from Moneycorp

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  1. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    Pound to Australian dollar rates have been trending lower as the market becomes more concerned over the outcome on Brexit and there has also been rising belief of progress on the trade wars, which have acted as a major drain for the global economy and sentiments generally. Clients looking to make a purchase of Australian dollars with pounds could find they become unstuck if there is a sudden change in the political situation for the UK. There has been many rumours that we could soon find Theresa May on the ropes once again, having to defend her position as Prime Minister. UK local elections are just around the corner, with the votes on May 2nd and this will be a big factor in determining the public mood with the Conservatives. There has been a growing expectation that there will need to be some change of approach in order to see Brexit make passage. Concerns over what type of Brexit is on offer could easily see the pound losing ground quite quickly. This week the focus will be on lots of talks with Labour which are unlikely to yield too much progress with the Labour party spotting an opportunity to make some further headway themselves, by frustrating Mrs May and her party.
  2. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) was turbo - charged overnight on Tuesday with the currency racing higher against the Pound (GBP) and the majority of its other peers following the release of some stronger - than - expected economic data from China. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistic, Chinese GDP held at 6.4% through the first quarter of 2019. While this left growth at a decade low it beat expectations that growth would have slowed to 6.3% prompting suggestions that China’s recent slowdown may have bottomed out. This was also accompanied by some impressive Chinese industrial statistics, with year-on-year growth in industrial production reported to have rocketed up from 5.3% to 8.5%, blowing past forecasts of a modest rise to 5.9%. The accompanying industrial data may have been even more supportive of the rise in risk sentiment according to some analysts. Looking ahead, the Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate may come under additional pressure on Thursday as the UK publishes its latest retail sales figures. Sterling looks likely to stumble following the data as economists forecast that sales growth will have slumped in March, falling from 0.4% to -0.3% as consumers limited their purchases amid heighted Brexit uncertainty. In the meantime the release of Australia’s employment figures overnight could elicit some weakness in the Australian Dollar.
  3. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has made some small gains to start this week after a poorer performance from the GBP to AUD pair last week. The general move lower in the last couple of weeks has been influenced by a weaker pound due to continued Brexit uncertainty but also a stronger Australian dollar as commodity prices have spiked higher. In the UK, Brexit remains the single biggest driver for sterling exchange rates although news on this front it likely to be less in these coming weeks with Parliament taking the Easter recess. The UK is now preparing to contest the European elections following the agreed extension for Britain’s withdrawal from the EU until 31st October 2019. The markets are now preparing for the implications from this extension in that the Conservative party could lose a great deal of seats in the EU elections. With the newly formed Brexit party being campaigned by Nigel Farage there could be something of a revolution in British politics. The local elections could also see a major shift in voting patterns, with this carrying much risk for the pound. Any big changes could result in major volatility for the GBP vs AUD pair.
  4. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rates drifted lower on Tuesday afternoon, this comes as Theresa May went on a last minute charm offensive in Paris and Berlin in attempt to persuade Emmanuel Macron and Angel Merkel to back her request for a short Brexit extension. EU leaders will decide on Wednesday whether to grant Theresa May another Brexit delay or leave the UK to face a no- deal Brexit on Friday, an outcome that will unnerve most GBP investors. Demand for the Pound is unlikely to see any significant improvement in the near term, with investors wary ahead of Friday’s Brexit deadline.Unless Theresa May agrees another deadline extension with EU leaders the GBP/AUD exchange rate looks set to remain biased to the downside this week.If a sense of clarity over the UK’s future relationship with the EU starts to emerge, though, the Pound could recover some of its recently lost ground.On the other hand, if May fails to secure a further extension of the current deadline GBP exchange rates may come under further pressure as the risk of a no-deal Brexit intensifies. AUD exchange rates could find fresh encouragement on the back of February’s Australian home loans and investment lending figures, meanwhile.Forecasts point towards home loans bouncing back from the previous month’s -1.2% contraction, delivering modest growth of 0.5% on the month.While investment lending is expected to remain within negative territory any improvement on January’s contraction may give the Australian Dollar a modest boost against its rivals.However, if Australian lending shows signs of weakening as consumers and businesses rein in their borrowing this could offer the GBP/AUD exchange rate some support.
  5. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has fallen over the last week to the tune of 3 cents for GBP/AUD. The markets are preparing for a volatile few days ahead as Brexit remains the main driver for the GBP to AUD pair. Today in Parliament will be a debate on extending Article 50, whilst discussions between the two main political parties continue to try and find cross party support for a deal on Brexit. So far, whilst discussions have been technical they have failed to bear fruits, adding another layer of uncertainty to the fraught negotiations. The Government also announced its intention to contest the European elections on 23rd May 2019 having written to candidates yesterday to prepare. If a deal were to be reached between Labour and the Conservative Party before these elections then the requirement to contest them would be removed. How things unfold from here will very much depend on the emergency EU Brexit summit tomorrow which will seek to allow Britain more time to find a majority in Parliament for a way forward. As things stand the deadline for the UK is this Friday. Even if the EU offers the UK an extension it remains to be seen whether Theresa May will be able to find sufficient common ground with the opposition Labour Party to get a majority in Parliament for her deal or a revised version of her deal. Any statements are likely to create significant volatility for GBP vs AUD in the days ahead.
  6. Anthony from Moneycorp

    AUD and GBP Update

    Of late Pound Sterling and the Australian Dollar have been two of the best-performing major currencies in global FX markets: it is therefore little wonder that the GBP/AUD exchange rate reflects something of a deadlock. As such, the GBP/AUD exchange rate is trading at 1.8338 at the start of the new week, little changed from the week before. Sterling has exhibited strength on the back of the news that Theresa May was reaching out to Jeremy Corbyn in order to try to forge a consensus on Brexit that could actually result in a deal that a majority in the House of Commons might support. The Australian Dollar has meanwhile benefited from a robust recovery in global investor sentiment, with markets being particularly optimistic that a trade deal between the U.S. and China is nigh.
  7. Anthony from Moneycorp

    AUD and GBP Update

    The Australian Dollar was trading on its back foot Tuesday ahead of the release of February retail sales data, which will help markets to answer the question of whether 2018's economic weakness carried forward into the New Year. Economic growth has faltered, in large part, due to the impact that declines in house prices have had on household confidence and spending. However, President Donald Trump's trade war with China also dented business confidence the world over in 2018, as well as the Australian Dollar. Currency markets care about the retail data because of the impact rising and falling demand has on inflation. It's changes in consumer price pressures that central banks are attempting to manipulate when they tinker with interest rates, which are themselves the raison d'être for most swings in exchange rates.
  8. Anthony from Moneycorp

    Quarterly Overview of the AUD

    The numbers presented a mixed, but largely steady picture in Australia. The gross domestic product data showed that Australia's' economy grew more slowly in Q4; by 0.2% instead of the expected 0.3%. Annual growth was 2.3%, down from 2.8% three months earlier. At the beginning of the year, there were signs that the trade surplus was narrowing. One of the more influential statistics for the Australian dollar was the AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index. It was up by a point and a half in February at 52.5. Data relating to housing and employment also had an effect on the Aussie’s value. House prices in Australian capital cities fell an average of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018, leaving them 5.1% lower on the year. It marked the longest run of losses since 2011. At the end of the quarter, data showed that unemployment fell to 4.9%, its lowest level since 2011. However, less than 5,000 of the jobs were new ones and there was a 15k swing from full-time to part-time employment. Investors were not totally impressed. Consumer confidence deteriorated by 4.7% to 99.6 in December, according to a Westpac survey and this trend continued into January. February's rebound did little more than reverse the previous month's decline and the onepoint improvement in business confidence, from 3 to 4, still left the measure below trend. However, by March surveys by NAB and Westpac found business confidence fading from 4 to 2 while consumer confidence was down by 4.8% to 103.8.
  9. Anthony from Moneycorp

    AUD Update

    The Aussie took third place behind the Japanese yen and US dollar. It lost narrowly to the USD and strengthened by two thirds of a cent against the pound. Australian economic data were conspicuous by their absence. The only ones to appear were for private sector credit in February. Lending to individuals and companies increased by a monthly 0.3% and was 4.2% higher on the year. Investors did not really notice. What they did notice, though, was guidance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that its next change to interest rates was likely to be a cut. Although there is no direct link between the RBNZ and the Reserve Bank of Australia, investors decided that such a move would be likely to affect the thinking of the RBA. It does not have much room to take rates lower but it might be inclined to try to find some.
  10. The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate has been testing some of the best levels since before the EU vote June 2016. Brexit is however far from settled and we could easily see some big changes in the currency markets soon. Positivity from Brexit could easily see the GBP/AUD rate top the 1.90 level, whilst the threat of no-deal Brexit could sink us back below 1.80. This week has seen the pound to Australian dollar exchange rate drop back slightly from the higher 1.80’s and the 1.8830 reached on the 14th March, as Theresa May’s position remains very much under threat. There is currently uncertainty over whether or not she is likely to have her job at the end of this week! The outlook for GBP/AUD rates is very mixed as we approach the finality on Brexit. Much will hinge on what lies head for the rest of this week. Theresa May is supposed to be having another ‘meaningful’ vote although these appear to be quickly becoming meaningless in my opinion. Last night parliament voted to take control of the some of the next stages which could open us up to a second Referendum or General Election. Mrs May is still determined to have her vote but it is looking increasingly like she will struggle and in any event it will be voted down. Clients expecting some certainty this week on Brexit will now find the dates of the 12th April and the 22nd May more interesting. These are the dates given by the EU as an extension. The latter date being conditional on Mrs May’s Brexit deal being passed by the Government, which is so far not looking likely. Those buying Australian dollars might wish to use this uncertain time to be making key preparations around what is likely to be a very turbulent period for GBP/AUD rates.
  11. Anthony from Moneycorp

    AUD and GBP Update

    Pound Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rate fell to a fresh low for the week thus far in early Tuesday trading as rebounding risk sentiment lifted the Aussie and Brexit-related uncertainty kept a lid on GBP upside. Brexit retains its influence as a key factor with developments therein expected to continue to drive price action for the GBP. Following Monday's parliamentary session, focus now turns to Wednesday's indicative votes which will give MPs the opportunity to present, and vote on, alternative Brexit plans. Aside from a panel discussion including RBA assistant governor, Christopher Kent, the schedule is clear for the Aussie with the antipodean currency expected to be at the mercy of risk-appetite, which for now at least remains positive.
  12. The Pound to Australian Dollar rate is set to beging trading around 1.8648 Sunday after falling more than one percent in the previous week, although studies of the charts suggest the outlook for the days ahead is a bullish one. The GBP/AUD pair fell at the start of last week after it the government requested from Brussels only a very short delay to the Brexit process. It recovered later, however, after the EU left the door open a much longer extension of the Article 50 negotiating window, and potentially an indefinite one if Prime Minister Theresa May fails again to get the EU Withdrawal Agreement through parliament. Pundits are still suggesting she will struggle to win enough votes for her deal to be approved next week so there is at least one fundamental reason for why the Pound could rise during the week ahead as a third failure of the Withdrawal Bill to clear parliament might see the market fixate on the odds of Brexit being abandoned by the government or prevented through a second referendum. The main event for the Australian Dollar in the week ahead is likely to be geopolitical in nature since the domestic data releases in the calendar are fairly low key. U.S.-China trade talks are scheduled to kick off again on Thursday, 28 March. Any positive opening statements may support the Chinese Renmimbi and Australian Dollar although markets could soon begin to grow impatient with a lack of detail on the final shape of the trade deal.
  13. The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate could lose further value as the UK heads closer to the 29th Brexit date with no real sign of what lies ahead. Whilst it is accepted that there should be some form of extension, the EU will only agree to this is the current deal is passed by the UK parliament. If the deal is rejected again we could see the pound lose further value as it increases the likelihood of a no-deal scenario. GBPAUD exchange rates could then slip below 1.80 and potentially below the 1.77 lows of 2019. Overnight there has also been Australian unemployment figures released, with Unemployment slightly better than expected at 4.9% versus the 5% prediction. This is at odds with the recent expectations we could see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates this year. It is likely that pound to Australian dollar rates will be very difficult to predict with lots of sudden twists and turns ahead. Today is the UK Bank of England decision which could well provide some further volatility. The outcome of Brexit negotiations and the changing impression is likely to remain the main driver of movements on pound to Australian dollar exchange rates.
  14. Anthony from Moneycorp

    GBP/AUD Sheds Last Week's Gains

    Pound to Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Sheds Last Week’s Impressive Gains Fresh frustration from the UK and EU over a Brexit impasse, with just over one week until Brexit, led to a deluge of unexpected developments yesterday that sent Brexit confidence and the Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate plummeting. Last week saw GBP/AUD surge from 1.8467 to 1.8763, as investors bet against a no-deal Brexit. However, since yesterday’s ultimatums from the EU and from the UK government, no-deal Brexit fears returned once again and GBP/AUD essentially shed those gains. The Australian Dollar (AUD) was more easily able to capitalise on the Pound’s (GBP) weakness this morning, due to dovishness from the Federal Reserve making investors more willing to take risks.
  15. Over the last 4 weeks GBP/AUD exchange rates have increased by 6 cents making a AUD $300,000 purchase £5,340 cheaper. The slowdown in Australia is putting a major strain on Australian dollar exchange rates. The housing market is under severe pressure due to the tightening of lending standards throughout 2018. China is slowing due to the ongoing trade war which means less commodities are leaving Australian shores and the Reserve Bank of Australia have hinted at cutting interest rates in a bid to stimulate economic growth. All in all, it’s hard to see how the tides will change for the Australian economy unless major changes are made to monetary policy and the US and China secure a trade deal that works for both parties. One positive is that unemployment numbers have remained stable over the last couple of months. This week Australia will release their latest unemployment numbers and 5% is expected. If the number is released at 5%, I expect the Australian dollar could benefit on Thursday morning. However earlier in the week, the RBA minutes and House Price index numbers are released on Tuesday morning. Both releases I expect could disappoint, therefore waiting till Friday to sell Australian dollars seems a risky strategy.