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Sheena from Moneycorp

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About Sheena from Moneycorp

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  1. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD

    The Australian dollar has been struggling recently against the pound owing to a number of different reasons. The wildfires have caused a huge amount of damage to the country and this is likely to have a knock on effect on the economy. According to Katrina Ell from Moody’s ‘the risk of there being broader macroeconomic spillovers this season are high given the scale of the fires.’ Also, the chances are increasing that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will look to cut interest rates when they hold their next meeting on 4th February. Economic data has been mixed during 2019 and the RBA has already hinted that it may look to make further cuts to the interest rate. The Australian dollar has also weakened recently over the unrest in the Middle East. As a commodity based currency the AUD can often be adversely affected by geopolitical uncertainty. The currency can often be sold off as investors view the Australian dollar as a riskier based currency. Investors will then typically move money towards safe haven currencies including the US dollar, Swiss franc or the Japanese yen. This can be evidenced when looking at what has happened to those three currencies over the last few weeks.
  2. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD

    The Australian Dollar has faded further from Fridays 5-month highs as speculators took profits on recent gains. Added to this, the bushfires which have wreaked havoc across the whole of Australia continues to burn which is causing untold strain on both the population and wildlife as well as the economy. Recent news broke Friday that the US had confirmed airstrikes on an Iranian military official, this caused the AUD to drop as the safe-haven Yen also fell. The bushfires in Australia continue to rage on, destroying everything it its path. Australian residents, and wildlife have suffered to the fires. The emergency response from the Australian services has been widespread but the effect of the support needed to attempt to manage the fires is costly, and thus the Aussie economy has taken a hit. Added to this, the tourism sector for Australia has taken a hit amongst the news of the fires as many residents are evacuated from their houses. For the GBP, the news is surrounding the ongoing Brexit talks and whether the UK and EU can come to an agreement. Michael Brown, currency expert at Caxton FX mentioned that the UK has lost ground as the new year got underway. With the UK already being hit with poor manufacturing PMIs on Thursday, investors will be hoping for positive revelations from the Brexit talks. Any positive news would give the GBP a boost as fears reduce of a no-deal Brexit occurrence.
  3. Sheena from Moneycorp

    US-China trade war casts a shadow

    Hopes of a resolution to the US-China trade war were repeatedly raised and dashed towards the end of the year, and the Aussie similar rose and fell on the news. October saw talk of a resolution and a postponement of tariffs scheduled for the 15th October, while December brought about a softening of the tone of rhetoric from the US. This was good news for the Australian dollar, however those hopes were soon dashed when China declared that it would be reluctant to strike a trade deal with the States as long as US tariffs remained in place. As a result, the Aussie lost all that it gained. The pattern of dashed hopes continued for much of the quarter, with promises of a resolution that never appeared. The challenge for the Australian dollar is that, along with many other commodity-based currencies, the ongoing trade war between the US and China is having an impact on currency values. The indirect impact is also felt in the performance of Australia’s economy as a major trade route. Investors will be looking for a more definite resolution in 2020 to the ongoing uncertainty.
  4. Sheena from Moneycorp

    AUD Update

    It's been a slow week for AUD as the market settled down for the festive period. Uncertainty continues to be the main theme for the currency as we await the RBA's decision on interest rate cuts, with many analysts expecting the first cut to be made by the central bank as early as mid-2020. This outcome would lead to AUD losing strength in the global market as the interest rate cuts aim to increase economic growth. GBP/AUD is trading at 1.8742 at the time of writing. Happy New Year to all!
  5. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP/AUD update

    GBP / AUD slips to 1.8663 on the back of a late December rise for Australian shares, with the futures market set to open up 10-15 points. Last Monday's high of 1.9513 has also been influenced by a hardening Brexit tone with Boris Johnson setting a deadline for next December. UK monetary policy will be key in the coming weeks, with many experts predicting a refined policy in 2020.
  6. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD update

    Pound to Australian dollar levels have been rising following the outcome from the UK’s General Election, which saw the Conservative Party win a resounding majority under Boris Johnson. It is currently the best time to buy Australian dollars with pounds since before the Referendum June 2016. With the recent advance for sterling, it is currently the best time in 3 ½ years to purchase Australian dollars with pounds. How likely is this to continue? Well, the outcome from the election in the UK is still being digested and the market will now look to the next events with parliament set to vote on the Brexit Withdrawal Bill this week. It might be that much of the good news will have been priced into current levels for the pound, which could limit the upside for the passage of the Withdrawal Bill. Whilst the move might end up being largely symbolic, it might ultimately end up being supportive for sterling, in removing the uncertainty regarding the outlook on Brexit.
  7. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rates rose today, due to opinion polls suggestion of a Conservative victory on the 12th December general election. The polls showed that the Tories were ahead of the Labour party in a 14 percentage point lead, ensuring a high probability that the Conservatives will win a majority this week. With markets preferring a Conservative victory, due to their promises to resolve Brexit uncertainty and engender enterprise - friendly policies, this has provided some uplift for the Pound today. However markets remain cautious over the remaining possibility of a hung parliament this week, with the opinion polls resulted being treated with a degree of scepticism. The Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled today after Chinese exports fell for their fourth consecutive month as US-China trade uncertainties weigh on China’s economy. China is clearly not immune to either the U.S. trade tariffs, or the lingering slowdown in the broader global economy. Tomorrow will also see the release of the industrial and manufacturing production figure for October, with any indications of improvement likely buoying market confidence in the British economy and boosting the Pound. UK political developments will remain in focus ahead of Thursday’s general election this week, with any signs of the Labour Party rising likely weakening the Pound on heightened political volatility.
  8. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The Pound-to-Australian Dollar exchange rate has on Thursday, December 05. hit a fresh 3-year high at 1.9214, amidst an ongoing rally in Sterling and softness in the Aussie Dollar. And, one investment bank we follow says AUD will likely continue to struggle through the course of 2020. GBP/AUD has been moving higher since late-July in a steady uptrend, built on expectations that Brexit is heading towards a conclusion. The latest chapter in this story is an expectation that the Conservatives of Boris Johnson will win the December 12. election and swiftly deliver Brexit in early 2020. However, the gains in GBP/AUD coincide with a softening in the Australian Dollar, which took a hit this week after Australia reported weaker than expected quarterly growth for the third quarter of 2019 * Time to move your money* - get industry leading exchange rates with a quick, easy and efficient service by using moneycorp foreign exchange!
  9. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    Despite trending lower for most of this week, and briefly seeing a slump yesterday, the British Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate has rebounded from its lows today and ultimately hasn’t seen huge losses this week after all. Demand for the Pound has been limited amid political uncertainty, but the Australian Dollar has seen big shifts in movement this week which have driven exchange rate movement. After opening this week at the level of 1.8710, GBP/AUD has spent the week trending with a downside bias due as the Australian Dollar capitalised on mixed Pound movement. GBP/AUD was almost on track to have lost around a cent and a half as it touched on a three week low of 1.8550 overnight, but after hitting those lows the pair has been recovering. While GBP/AUD continues to trend below the week’s opening levels, it has recovered most of its losses amid fresh Australian Dollar weakness, and at the time of writing was trending closer to the level of 1.8673. The Pound has seen mixed performance all week, and has lacked fresh support as investors focus on Britain’s 2019 General Election race. The election, still over a month away, is expected to see a win for the ruling Conservative Party which is being perceived as boosting the chances of a relatively soft Brexit. However, uncertainty about the possibility of other election outcomes is weighing on the British currency, preventing it from continuing to climb on softer Brexit hopes. On top of this, the Bank of England (BoE) surprised investors yesterday as policymakers were unexpectedly split on UK monetary policy.
  10. Sheena from Moneycorp

    AUD and GBP

    The Pound jumped by a percent against the Australian Dollar Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its interest rate to a new record low and hinted strongly of more cuts to come, which some analysts say now risks pushing the antipodean currency to its lowest level for more than a decade. Australia's central bank cut the cash rate to an all-time low of 0.75% Tuesday, in line with the market consensus, citing a continued weakening of the global economy and concerns about the outlook for jobs down under as risks to its inflation target. The RBA said the economy needs a lower rate of unemployment if it is to see the wage pressures that would enable the bank to meet its inflation target, but warned that jobs growth is likely to slow even further in Australia up ahead, even though unemployment has recently risen Changes in rates are normally only made in response to movements in inflation, which is sensitive to GDP growth, but impact currencies because capital flows tend to move in the direction of the most advantageous or improving returns. Those flows tend to move in the direction of the most advantageous or improving returns, with a threat of lower rates normally seeing investors driven out of and deterred away from a currency.
  11. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    Dragging the Aussie lower was the latest Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting minutes with guidance pointing to a clear easing bias moving forward. "They no longer talk about an accumulation of evidence in order to ease again, and highlight risks to the global economy,” wrote National Australia Bank senior FX strategist Rodrigo Catril, adding "It certainly sounds a lot more dovish than before.” For Sterling, Brexit remains the key to the outlook ahead of Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's BoE with focus falling on the Supreme Court on Tuesday as they open a case into PM Johnson's prorogation of Parliament. UK and EU officials are also set to resume Brexit talks after agreeing to host daily negotiations in a bid to thrash out a last minute deal. Risk-off was the dominant theme for currency markets on Monday while the GBP was facing the double-whammy of resurgent no-deal Brexit fears as Tory Brexiteers continue to insist the UK will leave the common currency bloc on October 31st. While there was some positivity out of a meeting between PM Johnson and the EU's Juncker in which the leaders agreed to daily Brexit talks moving forward, time's quickly running out to secure an outcome other than no-deal. "The fact remains there is still a decent chance of Britain not able to secure a deal and that is prompting investors to take profits after last week’s rally,” wrote currency strategist Thu Lan Nguyen of Commerzbank. For the Aussie, RBA minutes are due overnight which should set the tone moving forward while currency markets as a whole will likely take their cue from geopolitical risks - with a focus on the US response to the attacks on Saudi oil refineries - as well as central bank policy with the Fed and Bank of England releases likely to impact the cross.
  12. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    GBP/AUD UPDATE: The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate remained on the defensive on Tuesday afternoon, with the pairing trading at around AU$1.7867 in response to heightened political uncertainty in the UK.Markets are currently bracing for the unknown as MPs attempt to pass a bill compelling the government to seek an extension to Brexit, whilst Boris Johnson is preparing to call for a snap election if he is defeated. Helping the ‘Aussie’ to press its advantage was the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest rate decision, where an upbeat economic outlook helped to boost AUD exchange rates. The Australian Dollar’s period of weakness in August has not been enough to keep the British Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate climbing, and after markets opened today the pair tumbled once again. The Pound’s volatility is worsening on a mixture of UK economic fears and expectations for Brexit chaos, but the Australian Dollar has been unable to capitalise on Sterling weakness amid global trade fears and anticipation for upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) news.
  13. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD

    The GBP/AUD exchange rate is trading at around 1.8084 at the start of the new week having fallen 0.75% in the week before, and we note the pair to be trading in an increasingly narrow sideways range, with a decisive break higher or lower required to define the trend. With a politically-charged week of UK politics lying ahead, we could see some fresh direction injected into this exchange rate over coming days: the question is what are the levels readers should be watching. The Australian Dollar remains a proxy for investor sentiment towards China, and specifically the U.S.-China trade war. The Australian Dollar extended lower on Friday as 'risk assets' fell from favour with investors ahead of a weekend that is expected to yield a further escalation of the U.S.-China trade war although the Antipodean unit is tipped by multiple analysts to remain under pressure for a while to come. President Donald Trump moved ahead Sunday with a new tariff of 15% aimed at the remaining balance of Chinese exports to the U.S. not yet covered by punitive levies, although it will be December 15 before all of the country's trade with the U.S. is fully tariffed. Those exports waiting to be tariffed are worth around $300 bn each year, while the U.S. has $75 bn of exports to China that are set to be targeted in retaliation.
  14. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The pound to Australian dollar exchange rate is holding on to its recent gains with rates for GBP Vs AUD sitting at 1.8140. The markets will now focus on all the latest Brexit developments this week with political fireworks expected as we approach the 31st October Brexit deadline. High volatility is to be expected for GBP to AUD exchange rates as parliament will return 3rd September after the summer recess. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson made clear to MP’s yesterday that there will be no way of stopping Brexit and that Britain will leave the EU at the end of October. There has been much talk of a vote of no confidence which could be issued by leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn although whether he could succeed in putting in place a caretaker Prime Minister remains to be seen. There is also the very real prospect of a general election something that could see additional volatility for GBP/AUD. Those looking to buy or sell Australian dollars are likely to see heightened volatility in these coming weeks with a big swing in either direction depending on whether or not a Brexit deal is reached. Those with a sizeable amount to transfer would be wise to consider planning around these developments as the 31st October deadline counts down. There has been much talk of a vote of no confidence which could be issued by leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn although whether he could succeed in putting in place a caretaker Prime Minister remains to be seen. There is also the very real prospect of a general election something that could see additional volatility for GBP/AUD. Those looking to buy or sell Australian dollars are likely to see heightened volatility in these coming weeks with a big swing in either direction depending on whether or not a Brexit deal is reached. Those with a sizeable amount to transfer would be wise to consider planning around these developments as the 31st October deadline counts down.
  15. Sheena from Moneycorp

    GBP and AUD Update

    The GBP/ AUD exchange rate is trading at around 1.7727 on Monday, 0.90%b lover than at the same point last week. The pair has started to sell off steeply after rebounding to a multi - week high at 1.82. Although the overarching downtrend is still intact a break back below the trendline is required to confirm the downtrend. We retain a neutral outlook over the next 5 days, with a break higher or lower above various levels required to confirm the next direction of the trend. The most important data releases for the Aussie in the week ahead are employment data on Thursday and Chinese data on Wednesday. Australian employment data is forecast to show a 14k rise in July whilst unemployment is expected to remain at 5.8% when released at 2.30 BST on Thursday. This suggests a slightly positive result. The data could impact interest rate expectations and therefore the Aussie. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been aggressively cutting rates of late and this has been pressuring the Aussie lower since lower interest rates tend to weigh on currencies. A worse-than-expected result could increase speculation of a further interest rate cuts from the RBA in September - current market expectations are around 40% of a cut then.
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