views on aud to gbp exchange rates?

What are peoples in the know view on the exchange rate getting over the 2 to 1 dollar to pound mark any time soon?

Thanks for any input!

There is nobody on the planet that is in the know. If they were they would be billionaires anyway.

So all speculation. My personal speculation is that it will hang around where it is now until at least Article 50 is triggered. I believe it will return to 1:2 one day as I believe this is its natural level, but could be a while yet and some of the Brexit uncertainty needs to be worked through first.

There is nobody on the planet that is in the know. If they were they would be billionaires anyway.

 

So all speculation. My personal speculation is that it will hang around where it is now until at least Article 50 is triggered. I believe it will return to 1:2 one day as I believe this is its natural level, but could be a while yet and some of the Brexit uncertainty needs to be worked through first.

You might be right about that natural level. I still can't get over how on the 50th anniversary of the launch of the Australian dollar and with all those reruns on TV of the original adverts saying "1 pound will be worth exactly 2 dollars" the exchange rate was pretty much 2 dollars to the pound (despite huge fluctuations during those 50 years). Of course now for warning: "past performance is no guarantee of future performance".

Update: Decided to check my facts before anyone else did. Sadly the rate on 12th Feb 2016 (the actual anniversary on 14th Feb was a Sunday) was 0.5114 or $1.955 but it had been 0.5000 or $2.00 in January which is when they started promoting the upcoming anniversary.

If the UK can somehow contrive an agreement with the EU that provides UK based businesses and financial institutions with unrestricted access to that market then a return to 2:1 is fairly likely in 2018 or 2019.

If not then the UK economy will need to have a devalued GBP to maintain competitiveness. Keeping interest rates at or near zero for the longer term will suppress the currency particularly when global interest rates start to rise.

I suspect we will have to wait a few years for a return to 2:1 (as I believe the odds are against a favourable outcome from the negotiations) but, as I have pensions in the UK, I hope I am just being over pessimistic.

Unless Australia has a recession and we got half way there yesterday.

If the UK can somehow contrive an agreement with the EU that provides UK based businesses and financial institutions with unrestricted access to that market then a return to 2:1 is fairly likely in 2018 or 2019.

 

If not then the UK economy will need to have a devalued GBP to maintain competitiveness. Keeping interest rates at or near zero for the longer term will suppress the currency particularly when global interest rates start to rise.

 

I suspect we will have to wait a few years for a return to 2:1 (as I believe the odds are against a favourable outcome from the negotiations) but, as I have pensions in the UK, I hope I am just being over pessimistic.