eu referendum update

http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/24/france-overtakes-uk-as-fifth-largest-economy-as-pound-plummets-5964746/

 

I hope it goes well for the UK but there are verystormy (no pun intended) waters ahead and I bet it's the poorer areas that pay the highest price.

Has your aviation fuel for that chopper gone up in price yet?

There will be bumps, but I think there will be very short lived. I have seen the article, but it is a bit artificial - as anyone who lives in Australia knows all too well, currency can fluctuate wildly with very little real effect on people - in my 8 years in Oz, I have seen it rise to be over the USA dollar and tumble to a fraction. Nobody panicked.

The trade deals the UK wants around the world are starting to take shape - the negotiations with India start to today, Indonesia has said it wants a deal before Brexit, Canada is saying similar things, Australia and NZ have said they want to bring a closer partnership.

FTSE is above pre vote levels

FTSE 250 climbed strongly

House price data for June has just come out and showed price increases

Jobs data for June came out yesterday and showed better than expected

The biggest 5 of the banks in the city have said they will not be going anywhere

And no, helicopter fuel hasn't changed as most Av Gas used in the UK is UK produced.

I know, completely unimportant.

 

Just the 5th biggest economy, the 4th biggest manufacturer, the biggest buyer of German manufacturing, the biggest buyer of Indian textiles, the centre of the worlds financial industry, the centre for over 90% of metal production sales, a G7 nation, a permanent member of the security council, the worlds 6th biggest military power, one of the worlds few nuclear powers.

How on earth did Norway manage all that?

How on earth did Norway manage all that?

the long summer days helped!

There will be bumps, but I think there will be very short lived. I have seen the article, but it is a bit artificial - as anyone who lives in Australia knows all too well, currency can fluctuate wildly with very little real effect on people - in my 8 years in Oz, I have seen it rise to be over the USA dollar and tumble to a fraction. Nobody panicked.

 

The trade deals the UK wants around the world are starting to take shape - the negotiations with India start to today, Indonesia has said it wants a deal before Brexit, Canada is saying similar things, Australia and NZ have said they want to bring a closer partnership.

 

FTSE is above pre vote levels

FTSE 250 climbed strongly

House price data for June has just come out and showed price increases

Jobs data for June came out yesterday and showed better than expected

The biggest 5 of the banks in the city have said they will not be going anywhere

 

And no, helicopter fuel hasn't changed as most Av Gas used in the UK is UK produced.

The Brexit vote would not have impacted house prices in June, nor the jobless numbers. Nor will it impact much if at all in the coming months. Any real impact would happen only if the UK opted to leave the single market or if there was a genuine belief that it might. The major UK banks or anyone else will not suddenly decide to relocate anyway. The principle concern would be future inward investment which would not be short lived but long term. However the BOfE's moves to print money and encourage devaluation of the currency is doing the job of countering any negativity in the short term.

With continued depressed oil prices and low inflation the UK can ride a consequential jump in inflation from the currency devaluation. Inflation has the advantage of effectively reducing government debt too. In the medium term the 10% and rising devaluation against the Euro may have an impact on Britain's trade balance with the EU which will not aid negotiations.

from the times.

The falling pound is good news for exporters because it means that their products become cheaper for foreign customers to buy, and thus more competitive.

+Theresa May will also be speaking at the European summit tomorrow and Friday where she will be grilled on her EU exit strategy which could cause major volatility for the pound.+

Nah, she'll just say brexit means breakfast. Dogs that is.

The Brexit vote would not have impacted house prices in June, nor the jobless numbers. Nor will it impact much if at all in the coming months. Any real impact would happen only if the UK opted to leave the single market or if there was a genuine belief that it might. The major UK banks or anyone else will not suddenly decide to relocate anyway. The principle concern would be future inward investment which would not be short lived but long term. However the BOfE's moves to print money and encourage devaluation of the currency is doing the job of countering any negativity in the short term.

 

With continued depressed oil prices and low inflation the UK can ride a consequential jump in inflation from the currency devaluation. Inflation has the advantage of effectively reducing government debt too. In the medium term the 10% and rising devaluation against the Euro may have an impact on Britain's trade balance with the EU which will not aid negotiations.

You think there is no "genuine belief" that UK might leave the single market. :err:

You dont think the referendum made this very much a possibility? Wow.

Thursday’s meeting of the European council will be the prime minister’s first opportunity to address the leaders of all the other member states since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June.

+Donald Tusk, the European council president, has insisted Britain’s future relationship with the EU will not be on the formal agenda for the two-day meeting, but he will give May the opportunity to set out the “current state of affairs in the country” over coffee at the end of the meal.

A No 10 source said she would tell her fellow EU leaders: “The British people have made a decision and it’s right and proper that that decision is honoured. There will be no second referendum. The priority now has got to be looking to the future, and the relationship between the UK, once we leave”.+

That is obvious to everyone and everyone knows that already.

She has said already she will be invoking Article 50 by end of March.

God knows why you and others are clinging to the fantasy of a 2nd referendum or that Britain has changed its mind.

You think there is no "genuine belief" that UK might leave the single market. :err:

 

You dont think the referendum made this very much a possibility? Wow.

Where did I say that? Suggest re-read my post.

You think there is no "genuine belief" that UK might leave the single market. :err:

 

You dont think the referendum made this very much a possibility? Wow.

The referendum was on leaving the EU not on leaving the single market. Norway is not in the EU but is in the single market. Personally I think that's the worst case option and it's better for Britain to be out of the single market if it's not an EU member since otherwise it'll still be forced to pay all the same fees it's paying at the moment and still have no control over the immigration of EU citizens plus it won't have the right to vote against whatever silly nonsense the EU come up with next.

The referendum was on leaving the EU not on leaving the single market. Norway is not in the EU but is in the single market. Personally I think that's the worst case option and it's better for Britain to be out of the single market if it's not an EU member since otherwise it'll still be forced to pay all the same fees it's paying at the moment and still have no control over the immigration of EU citizens plus it won't have the right to vote against whatever silly nonsense the EU come up with next.

To say Norway has no say is incorrect, and with the UK Norway would have much more say.

But the eea is essentially a halfway house. People say it is a phase countries go through whilst joining the EU, but this is clearly not the case. It is the least risky option. True, there is a danger that we will stay there. But we can leave the eea any time. It's up to us. If it's in our interests to move past the eea, we will.

But it is a necessary step, and one that I might add, isn't even guarenteed.

Despite all the bravado by the government and on here, we don't have an amazing position to negotiate from. With a ticking clock, vultures circling dangling one sided trading agreements in front of us, the EU facing increasing rebellion, we've been set up to fall. The only real card we have to play is to buy time. That is the eea, or something so similar to the eea, it may as well be.

+The European Union is to show its determination to make no concessions to the UK on Brexit terms by telling Switzerland it will lose access to the single market if it goes ahead with plans to impose controls on the free movement of EU citizens.

The Swiss-EU talks, under way for two years but now needing a solution possibly within weeks, throws up the exact same issues that will be raised in the UK’s exit talks – the degree to which the UK must accept free movement of the EU’s citizens as a price for access to the single market.

The Swiss are desperate to strike a deal in order to give its politicians time to pass the necessary laws to meet a February 2017 deadline imposed by a legally binding referendum in 2014.

The former president of the FDP-Liberal Radicals, Philipp Müller, on Sunday said the Brexit threat should serve as a warning to the Swiss, amid suggestions in Brussels the prospect of UK-EU exit talks meant there was less willingness to give ground on freedom of movement.+

[h=1]EU may refuse informal Brexit talks until UK triggers article 50[/h]

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Time to start feeling more positive about brexit methinks

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-vauxhall-general-motors-job-losses-pound-value-crash-cuts-a7379931.html

Time to start feeling more positive about brexit methinks

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-vauxhall-general-motors-job-losses-pound-value-crash-cuts-a7379931.html

I don't see what there is to be positive about, I just hope everybody loves having their country back!!!!!

Apparently a trade deal with a country on the other side of the Atlantic, with half the population of the UK is a great deal for the EU, but they are going to make it hard for us :laugh:

Apparently a trade deal with a country on the other side of the Atlantic, with half the population of the UK is a great deal for the EU, but they are going to make it hard for us :laugh:

It's more the fact that it took how many years and nearly failed? Dealing with the EU is a pain in the bum. Keep it simple and then refine it in our own time, not while on the EU clock. You don't want to make hasty trade agreements with third parties. Let's do this properly. Theresa thinks so.

Brexit is a process. What we get after the two years doesn't have to be the end of it. We are out. We can adapt and mold to our hearts content.