Don't panic about Ebola

[VERYSTORMY]

There has been a lot of chat about this virus and it is obvious,y in the news a lot - rightly so as we need to do a lot more to help.

 

But this is not something we need to be worried about beyond what little our governemts are doing to help people.

 

I am probably one of the few people I guess on here who have seen it in the "flesh". We had a small outbreak in the DRC when I worked there. I visited the ward - as I have visited many in Africa as when I ever I work there it is noth part of my job and part of what I regard my moral duty to see how I can help. (I also visit the schools) and it has led to some very sad and worrying days, but some amazing days such as opening a new HIV clinic earlier this year. The point being, I visited a ward, with Ebola and as far as I am aware still here.

 

I have aves worked in a lot of Africa as some of you know - DRC, Uganda, South Africa, Tanzania and others and visited many others.

 

The problem being faced is very cultural. There are a lot of cultural issues that combined with poor living conditions are causing this outbreak to spread. The big ones include a suspicion of modern medicine (you would be surprised how huge this is - I have know post grad educated people in Africa who have spent time in modern countries still very suspicious of medicine and believe in magic). This often means people and their families do not seek treatment and often handle not just infected people but also it is common to handle dead bodies. I attended a funeral last year in which the body was passed on our hands over every man in the community.

 

Then you need to understand that most of these communities have no access to even good water, let alone disinfectant.

 

There is a good chance we will see some cases in oz / UK, simply due to the modern international world. But it isn't something to get worried about. Your chances of being infected are higher than being struck by lightning and winning the lotto on the same day.

[MARYROSE02]

I hope you are right! I'm not overly worrying about it, which is odd for a hypochondriac, but I also find these sort of outbreaks far more worrying than, say, 'climate change', which could be the greatest danger to the future of humankind since The Black Death, or it could just be one more fluctuation in the history of the planet's climate.

[Parley]

2 nurses in the US have contracted it after treating an Ebola sufferer.

 

They supposedly followed all the protocols but have caught it anyway.

And the 2nd one caught a commercial flight in the US the day before she was diagnosed.

 

US authorities are trying to trace and test every passenger on the flight.

 

It seems to be at a tipping point.

If we are lucky it will be contained, but it is also possible that it could spiral out of control with thousands of cases in the US and thousands of deaths.

[VERYSTORMY]

No. It is only spread by bodily fluids. As a result, it is only transmitted in the later stages.

 

Hemoragic fever ver of any kind is deeply distressing. You would be in hospital long before you were seriously likely to be a major problem. This disease is normally and effectively contained in clinics in west Africa where they it is still mud floors.

 

There re have been some breaches of protocol that have resulted in some health care workers being infected. That is unusual. Please remember there are thousands of international staff working in the area treating these patients. The proportion infected is is out 0.0000001%.

 

the big issue is we don't throw enough medical care at it now. It has reached the point of exponential. That, for any disease is a serious issue. What we do need now are lots of people on the ground dealing with it to prevent fall out in other ways such as failed states. Let alone the poor suffering.

 

When we we had an Ebola outbreak in DRC, the medic was a good friend. We would meet after work and share a beer. I know that even if he had been affected, I had zero chance of catching it.

[MovingtoTasmania]

Thank you for the posts @VERYSTORMY. Both are full of commonsense and what I have been thinking myself - it's very hard to catch it but I think despite trying to be the voice of reason, you are skiing uphill with this one as, it seems to me, some people want to panic or cause panic.

[Parley]

While that is true it doesn't mean that it can't turn into an epidemic if it gets out of control.

 

Us only has about 20 beds set up to cater for this scenario and now about 200 they are watching closely.

 

There is no vaccine and no treatment.

Edited October 16, 2014 by parleycross

[MovingtoTasmania]

My understanding is that whilst there is no specific cure for Ebola itself, there are treatments, which if started early enough, can increase the chance of survival. I recall reading/hearing that currently, only 50% of those infected with Ebola die, but I could be mis-remembering the survival rate.

 

However, as the OP has stated very clearly. It is hard to become infected in the first place!

[Parley]

The mortality rate is about 70%.

 

There is no treatment other than isolation.

If you get ebola you will projectile vomit and get diarrhea.

If you get vomited on you will catch it.

 

While it is not easy to catch it seems any interaction with any bodily fluid from an infected person will pass it on.

[noworriesmate]

The mortality rate is 50% there have been +/- 9000 cases with circa 4500 deaths in this outbreak.

 

NWM

[jac2011]

I saw a brilliant chart yesterday which showed how hard it is to transmit and that put it into perspective. I understand it can be deadly but it has to be caught first. People forget that Ebola has been around for a long time. Do people remember the swine flu epidemic? What else would the newspapers have to put on the front covers if they werent scaremongering. Yes, it is a terrible disease for countries such as Africa but as VS states, this is to do with the living standards and access to medicine.

[Parley]

I saw a brilliant chart yesterday which showed how hard it is to transmit and that put it into perspective. I understand it can be deadly but it has to be caught first. People forget that Ebola has been around for a long time. Do people remember the swine flu epidemic? What else would the newspapers have to put on the front covers if they werent scaremongering. Yes, it is a terrible disease for countries such as Africa but as VS states, this is to do with the living standards and access to medicine.

 

Perhaps your right and its all a media beatup.

[MovingtoTasmania]

Symptoms of Ebola are treated as they appear. The following basic interventions, when used early, can significantly improve the chances of survival:

 

 

• Providing intravenous fluids (IV)and balancing electrolytes (body salts)
  
• Maintaining oxygen status and blood pressure
  
• Treating other infections if they occur
  

 

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/treatment/

 

There are treatments/interventions that can be used to help to counteract the effects of the disease. It is wrong to say that you become infected, vomit and die. That is simply untrue. You might die. But then, you might die from flu, crossing the road, eating chicken (salmonella), eating pork (ecoli). To my knowledge, people are still crossing roads, eating chicken and eating pork...........

[VERYSTORMY]

In 1998, I was very suddenly struck with a form of viral encephalitis. The form I was struck with was contagious and still has a mortality rate of about 90%. I was in little old leicester and admitted to leicester royal. I don't remeber any of it as I was in a coma for 6 weeks. It was diagnosed in seconds as a potentially dangerous disease. I spent my time in a ward dedicated to highly infectious disease.

 

No no one else was infected. I obviously recovered (minus a mild lack of sensation in my left side).

 

This, suburban hospital had all of the protocols in place to deal with me. I imagine in today's climate they are even better

[Parley]

True if you catch it they will treat you, give you fluids and keep you comfortable but unfortunately the mortality rate is 70% so the odds are not good.

 

As we have seen health workers in particular have been catching despite protocols in place.

[MovingtoTasmania]

The mortality rate is 50% there have been +/- 9000 cases with circa 4500 deaths in this outbreak.

 

NWM

@parleycross.

 

Where are you finding your 70% mortality rate statistics?

[Parley]

@parleycross.

 

Where are you finding your 70% mortality rate statistics?

 

World Health Organisation.

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/10/ebola-outbreak-killing-70-percent-victims-20141014132345720164.html

[MovingtoTasmania]

World Health Organisation.

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/10/ebola-outbreak-killing-70-percent-victims-20141014132345720164.html

 

And yet on the WHO website it says this:

 

Key facts

 

 

 

• Ebola virus disease (EVD), formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever, is a severe, often fatal illness in humans.

• The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals and spreads in the human population through human-to-human transmission.

• The average EVD case fatality rate is around 50%. Case fatality rates have varied from 25% to 90% in past outbreaks.

 

 

 

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/

Edited October 16, 2014 by MovingtoTasmania
Forget to put web link in

[Parley]

I think they have changed their view very recently.

 

I think the 50% comes from over 40years of outbreaks when the numbers infected have been reasonably small.

 

The trouble with the current outbreak is it is getting out of control.

As it spirals to thousands of new cases per week, then the ability to isolate people becomes less and ultimately more people die.

Edited October 16, 2014 by parleycross

[MovingtoTasmania]

I think they have changed their view very recently.

 

Indeed. In the last 24 hours it would seem!!

 

WHO: Ebola Response Roadmap Situation Report

15 October 2014

A total of 8997 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been

reported in seven affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Spain, and the

United States of America) up to the end of 12 October. There have been 4493 deaths.

 

http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/136508/1/roadmapsitrep15Oct2014.pdf?ua=1

 

I think the maths here are very simple.........

 

I think I would rather take my information directly from the WHO website then secondhand from the media who are have their own axe to grind!

Edited October 16, 2014 by MovingtoTasmania

[Parley]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/who-sees-up-to-10-000-west-africa-ebola-cases-a-week.html

 

The WHO's statistics of 8,914 cases and 4,447 deaths indicate a fatality rate of about 50 percent. But those numbers include people who have only recently become infected. In looking at patients with a known clinical outcome, the fatality rate is 70 percent, he said. “This is a horrible, unforgiving disease,” he said. “You’ve got to get to zero” cases.

 

Edited October 16, 2014 by parleycross

[MovingtoTasmania]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/who-sees-up-to-10-000-west-africa-ebola-cases-a-week.html

 

The WHO's statistics of 8,914 cases and 4,447 deaths indicate a fatality rate of about 50 percent. But those numbers include people who have only recently become infected. In looking at patients with a known clinical outcome, the fatality rate is 70 percent, he said. “This is a horrible, unforgiving disease,” he said. “You’ve got to get to zero” cases.

 

 

The basis of this story is a forecast, not fact. This is a prediction! Perhaps this guy needs to consider also getting a job on a psychicline!

[tonyman]

There has been a lot of chat about this virus and it is obvious,y in the news a lot - rightly so as we need to do a lot more to help.

 

But this is not something we need to be worried about beyond what little our governemts are doing to help people.

 

I am probably one of the few people I guess on here who have seen it in the "flesh". We had a small outbreak in the DRC when I worked there. I visited the ward - as I have visited many in Africa as when I ever I work there it is noth part of my job and part of what I regard my moral duty to see how I can help. (I also visit the schools) and it has led to some very sad and worrying days, but some amazing days such as opening a new HIV clinic earlier this year. The point being, I visited a ward, with Ebola and as far as I am aware still here.

 

I have aves worked in a lot of Africa as some of you know - DRC, Uganda, South Africa, Tanzania and others and visited many others.

 

The problem being faced is very cultural. There are a lot of cultural issues that combined with poor living conditions are causing this outbreak to spread. The big ones include a suspicion of modern medicine (you would be surprised how huge this is - I have know post grad educated people in Africa who have spent time in modern countries still very suspicious of medicine and believe in magic). This often means people and their families do not seek treatment and often handle not just infected people but also it is common to handle dead bodies. I attended a funeral last year in which the body was passed on our hands over every man in the community.

 

Then you need to understand that most of these communities have no access to even good water, let alone disinfectant.

 

There is a good chance we will see some cases in oz / UK, simply due to the modern international world. But it isn't something to get worried about. Your chances of being infected are higher than being struck by lightning and winning the lotto on the same day.

 

 

[Marisawright]

2 nurses in the US have contracted it after treating an Ebola sufferer.

 

They supposedly followed all the protocols but have caught it anyway.

.

The key word there is "supposedly". The authorities aren't going to admit they slipped up, are they? There was a report of one doctor at the Spanish hospital complaining that the protective suits didn't fit and exposed their wrists, for instance, bu the hospital is still claiming their procedures were perfect. And there is such a thing as human error - a nurse taking off a glove for an instant to fix a fiddly dressing for instance. Another doctor has said the highest risk time is taking off the suit, because once you're half way out, it's so easy to brush up against the suit with your bare skin.

 

Nurses and doctors are handling patients when they're at their most infectious (i.e. near and after death), so they are at very high risk indeed. The fact that only a few hundred doctors and nurses have been infected in Africa should tell you something - they are not just handling patients in less-than-hygienic conditions, they're having to live in the community every day as well, and yet most of them are surviving fine.

Edited October 16, 2014 by Marisawright

[DianaK]

Another article...sad and disturbing, if true...

 

http://www.politicalears.com/blog/shock-claim-from-ghana-ebola-is-not-real/

[Marisawright]

Another article...sad and disturbing, if true...

 

http://www.politicalears.com/blog/shock-claim-from-ghana-ebola-is-not-real/

 

Of course it's not true, what a load of garbage. But this is why it's got such a high infection rate in Africa - Africans are very suspicious of modern medicine, and when people go into hospital with mild symptoms and most don't recover, they're likely to blame the doctors not the disease.

 

The silliest thing about that article is it's suggesting ebola is a new disease, introduced recently to achieve military goals, when it's been around for decades.