recession

[AnnabelCandy]

[QUOTE=LukeSkywalker;530194]

Fact 1 - ALL Western countries are in the sh1t. UK/Oz/USA/Germany - THE LOT
Fact 2 - The West's consumption is what has driven jobs in China etc. Now they are suffering.
Fact 3 - A good percentage of people have lived OVER their means (credit mainly)

OK these all seem to me to be facts. Now to my opinions.

Opinion 1 - Prices of houses etc. in Australia are as inflated as in the UK.
Opinion 2 - I believe that Australia will see 30% off their house prices over the next 2-3 years.
Opinion 3 - The construction industry will be (is already) the hardest hit industry. One reason is that it offered for a period of time crazy money for average to poor workers. The same thing happened in IT in 1999-2003. IT salaries never recovered, and neither will construction.
Opinion 4 - This is a 20 year problem - not a 12 month one
Opinion 5 - It was the 1991 - 2007 credit boom that was abnormal - not current times

Well, you're popular with me! I agree with it all but it is quite taboo to say this kind of thing. The only danger with the rest of your long response if the possibility of inflation which could mean house prices do continue to rise at some point.

Only time will tell what the future holds but times are certainly hard for investors at the moment and it may not be a good time to get into the property market here. I do think there has been a drop already maybe 5-10% but still 10-20% more to fall.

Traditionally during a recession less people emigrate as they can't afford to so Aus house prices might fall foul of lower immigration.

Very interesting discussion, I look forward to continuing it.

Cheers and good luck to everyone!

[KIRK AND CO]

Originally Posted by Chrissy

Same here!! Things arent looking too good right now, let alone when theres more out of work all chasing the non existent jobs!! weve decided just to call this a working holiday, see what we want to see and then homeward bound. I think once you live here and then return, everyone should be more positive about living in the uk.......its really not that bad!!!!

Uk is a fantastic place to live it has given me the opertunity to go to oz never will I knock the uk.

[pegasus 90]

Good post Lukeskywalker, although can't say that I totally agree with the comments on the property market. Oz has had a net influx of migrants for decades so demand for housing should be relatively strong. The part that worries me is that Oz relies too much on natural resources sector (mining etc). Australia's manufacturing has been in decline for years & they are behind other countries (like UK & others) that have made a transition to a service based economy. I am in WA, so the mining industry is crucial for it's survival, but what happens when/if China & India decide they don't want to buy our iron ore anymore. When I first moved to Oz nearly 10 yrs ago & was desperately trying to find work and met a $10 Pom who had been here since the early 60’s; & he said that when the mining industry slows down……Australia stops.
I think Australia has lost a golden opportunity to set itself up after 5 yrs of boom times.

I like you believe that consumption has been one of the main factors in all this. I feel that too many people have unrealistic expectations of what they want materialistically and live beyond their means (I sound old now but I’m still in my 30’s !!) .
Oh BTW I went to the pub recently (in Perth) : Pint of Stella - $12, Beef Pie & Chips $25 !
Admittedly I can only speak for Perth; but it certainly ain’t cheap here anymore.
I freely admit that Oz probably has more free pastimes but when you are looking for something diverse & interesting; walking round a park just doesn’t cut the mustard.
Once again, great post.
P90

[itcouldbeworse]

Originally Posted by pegasus 90

G

, Beef Pie & Chips $25 !

You can get smorgasboard (All you can eat), in a multitude of places in Brizzy for just over half that.

kev

[Petals]

I see the property market is falling but where, my friend's daughter bought a unit in St Kilda about 2 -3 years ago two bedroom needing renovation for $240,000 just sold it for $381,000 and she spent about $18,000 doing it up not a bad return.

Depends what you are selling, if its a five bedroom mansion with a pool on an ordinary block then people will be in trouble to get what they paid for it but if its in inner suburbs and will provide a mortgage most people can handle then it will sell.

People have to live somewhere.

Australia has an industry and we have had it for quite a number of years now its not a new industry but its been revived in recent years its called "migration and human beings".

Manufacturing is not the way for any western country to go unless its with highly specialised equipment. Japan, Taiwan, Korea, India and China can do it all so much cheaper and equally as good.

The way forward as I see it is scientific endeavours and drugs, stem cell treatments and the like. The bionic ear earns many many dollars every year for Australia and despite what people may think there are a lot of very eminent people here beavering away in the background looking for scientific break through.

Australians have always been very inventive and they continue to be so. The black box. etc.

Everywhere in the world is suffering and we will suffer here too but hopefully not the same as everyone else.

Just out of interest what is not interesting about walking around a park and seeing different species of birds, flowers and trees. I love to do it everywhere in the world and see diversity. I am a bit over old ruins and Cathedrals and we keep doing it I do not know why. Actually next year when we go back we are doing small churches rather than large ones.

[AnnabelCandy]

Ah, Petals, I love to see your pic, especially with that wad of cash in your bill. Duck on the run. I agree, you can't beat birds, flower, trees and animals for a good day out. My four year old is always pointing out birds to me which makes me so proud. Nature is definitely the best entertainment and free too, as long as we look after our environment.

I hope you find some lovely clean pool, rivers and creeks to swim in and have a great weekend!

x Annabel