contributary parent visa

[Gollywobbler]

Hi Jean

I've just spent 2 hours playing with the known figures and I reckon that you will get your visas before the end of September. Fear not. They would NOT have asked you for your AoS unless they were confident that your visas can be granted before they have to shut the door on Grants again. The Minister's Minions had their ears roundly boxed for that during the 2007/8 Program Year so I am sure they will not repeat that error again.

Chin up, chooks

Gill
xx

[Gollywobbler]

Hi All

The article published today by Alan Collett of Go Matilda is here:

Go Matilda - Your Gateway to Australia - News

As mentioned to Jean though, above, although I think she will get her visas before they close the 2008/9 Grants door, 2 hours of number-crunching just now does persuade me that Alan and the POPC may well be right.

I think the Clue will be whether or not they continue to ask CPV 143 applicants for their Assurances of Support, because they will not do that if they know that it will be another 9 months or more before they can actually hand over a visa.

Best wishes

Gill

[OldiesRUs]

Thanks Gill. Contacted my CO yesterday and asked the question. She has said she "has many clients ahead of us and should be asking for our 2nd VAC in 1 or 2 weeks. Still have this nagging doubt in my head though, it seems we have got so close and it could all be snatched away again for another year. Feeling really down about it again - well hacked off actually.

Still chin up - the sun is shining, I've just won the lottery -- oh, sorry, slipped into la la land for a bit there.

Jean

[Gollywobbler]

Hi Jean

Your visas have already been reserved for you because you are so far down the line with the process. They reserve the visas at the same time as adding the Parent to the Queue. So you will definitely get your visas before Christmas and I reckon by the end of September/mid-October if you push your CO a bit.

Best wishes

Gill

[marian and ian burgess]

Hi Gill All this confusing information about queueing and non-queueing is very hard to digest! I think that all any of us really want to know is how many applications are there already waiting processing
regardless of how many are in the official queue. My application was acknowledged on 12 March 2008 so the only statistic that is really of interest is how many applications were lodged before mine. Surely it would not be too difficult for this figure to be made available? I assume that there is some kind of system which could easily provide this information as all applications are acknowledged quite quickly and entered into some kind of computer programme. Or I am being too simplistic!
Yours frustatingly
Marian Burgess

[Gollywobbler]

Hi Marian

I do understand your frustration completely.

There are official figures up to a point, though only up to a point:

1.1.2 Family entry (permanent) - Output 1.1- Annual Report 2006-07

The Report was published in mid-December 2007, six months or so after the 2006/7 Year End, which was 30th June 2007.

The relevant section reads as follows:

Parent visas

All 1000 places available in the non-contributory parent category were filled in 2006-07. The contributory parent migration category came into effect on 27 June 2003 and there were 3500 visas granted in this category in 2006-07.

The category was capped for the first time in June 2006. In 2007-08 there will again be 4500 visa places available – 1000 in the parent category and 3500 in the contributory parent category.

Processing times for the offshore contributory parent category visas did not meet published performance standards through 2006-07. The number of applications received by the Perth Offshore Parents Centre (POPC) have more than doubled in three years (from about 3000 cases in 2005 to more than 7000 cases at June 2007) and the average application rate is 325 cases (525 people) per month. With only 3500 visa places available under the programme, POPC faced a rapidly increasing workload and consequent backlog.

The department responded to this situation by putting in place a number of revised management practices to ensure smarter processing, including restructuring POPC and introducing streamlined processing methods to improve productivity and efficiency.

The expected gains did not show immediately and it will take some time for these measures to take effect and catch up with on-hand applications.


In early Feb 2008, the POPC said that they had Queued about 1,000 offshore CPV applicants by then. Asked whether the rate of new applications was still about 525 people per months, I am told that the CO said yes.

If the Queue Calculator is telling the truth, there were 2,130 Queued applications for offshore CPVs 143 and 173 on 30th June 2008, with 6,500 new visas becoming available the next day. On 31st July, the size of the Queue had reduced to 930 so they managed to grant 1,200 visas during July, the thing says.

I think that it is possible that come September/October, they might say that they have reserved 6,500 CPVS and CAPVs for people for Grants prior to 30th June 2009. I doubt that they will stop granting visas till about December/January simply because the end-stages of the process take longer with some applicants than with others.

Somebody on the big BE thread e-mailed the POPC about progress about a month or two back and published the text of the reply on BE. The POPC had said that on a very broad average, it is taking about 12 months from the date of lodgement until a CO first makes contact. It can take anything up to about 6 months, on the whole, after that.

I think the demand rate of 525 new applicants per month has risen substantially from the 2007 position. My guess is that when we see the DIAC report for 2007/08. which will be published in mid-December 2008, 525 could well have become 650 or even 675 I suspect. But we won't know till the new Report has been published shortly before Christmas.

Best wishes

Gill

[Gollywobbler]

Hi All

Just in case anyone has not noticed either Alan Collett's article on Go Matilda the other day, or George Lombard's thread on BE about it, the 2nd Instalment for CPVs will rise on Monday 27th October 2008:

Go Matilda - Your Gateway to Australia - News

Anybody currently preparing a CPV application may wish to think about trying to ensure that the POPC receive it well before Friday 24th October if possible, to avoid nail-biting on the final Friday!

Interestingly, it is the most moderate increase in the history of the Contributory Parent Scheme - the percentage increase is only 3.7% this time. It was 7.6% last year and it tends to run at around 6% on a rough average.

Best wishes

Gill

Originally Posted by Gollywobbler

.... there were 2,130 Queued applications for offshore CPVs 143 and 173 on 30th June 2008, with 6,500 new visas becoming available the next day.

Hello all

Ignoring issues of whether queues really exist or not, a lot of confusion is created for us when numbers of "applications" are assumed to be the same as numbers of "visas". One application could be for two people for example, which we assume would be 2 visas. This would go some way to helping to understand why, the 6,500 visas are expected to be "used up" by September this year when there were only 2,130 "queued" applications at 30 June.
In the threads I have seen, people talk of applications and visas as if they are the same thing. They might be, but that would surely only be the case if an application for 2 people (a couple) is treated as 2 applications. Perhaps someone out there knows.
Because the news about the imminent exhaustion of the visa quota for 2008/9 has taken us all by surprise, (including migration agents posting on this and other sites), it seems that no-one has really had a grasp of the numbers until now; and I fear perhaps not even now. This is no doubt due to misleading statistics, but it's really damaging for those people who have waited patiently, want to get going and have had their expectations raised and then dashed.

[Gollywobbler]

Hi HB

Yes, you are right. I should have said Queued applicants because the Calculator is describing people, not the number of applications received.

Please accept my apologies for my mistake and thank you for pointing it out.

I am fed up with not knowing exactly what the Queue Calculator is doing. I've sent an e-mail to the POPC this morning, giving the links for this thread and for the Sparkly CPV thread on BE so that they can see for themselves how confused everyone is.

I've asked whether they will please be kind enough to get one of the COs to reply to me explaining exactly how the Queue arrangements work and exactly what we are supposed to deduce from the Calculator. I've said that the easiest thing would be a couple of paragraphs that I can simply copy and paste onto here.

Hopefully they will take pity on all us poor souls stumbling around in the wilderness and will explain exactly how the arrangements work, so as to remove all the confusion once and for all.

Hopefully.....

If I get a reply, I will paste it into a post.

Best wishes

Gill

Originally Posted by Gollywobbler

Hi HB

Yes, you are right. I should have said Queued applicants because the Calculator is describing people, not the number of applications received.

I wasn't taking issue with your posting specifically Gill, just trying to understand the relationship between "visas" and "applications". Your input on this forum is invaluable. Most posts on this and the BE forum refer alternately to applications or visas and the distinction is far from clear. It makes a huge difference though in calculating the availability. For example, we are a married couple with a 143 application in the pipeline. We have submitted one application. Are we two applicants (or one)? Will we be issued with 2 visas, or one; assuming we live long enough? Perhaps I shouldn't tempt fate at my age with attempts at cynical humour.