General Skilled Migration - the future

[George Lombard]

I've had quite a number of enquiries recently concerning how people should be approaching GSM in the future, when the new "skill select" model is introduced and people have to lodge an Expression of Interest (EOI) before they're allowed to apply for a General Skilled Migration visa.

 

Start of an FAQ, please feel free to add your own:

 

1. Where can I find out about the 2012 changes?

 

DIAC does have a link on its website, see http://www.immi.gov.au/skilled/general-skilled-migration/skillselect.htm and a blog, see http://skilledmigration.govspace.gov.au/2011/10/05/skillselect-%E2%80%93-the-who-what-when-why-and-how/

 

The blog posts will be necessary viewing over the next 6-12 months. Not sure how influential they'll be in challenging DIAC actions, but probably they've decided to use a form of communication which is "informal" in the hope that they won't be bound by unintended consequences of the content.

 

 

2. What are the likely changes to the skilled occupation list?

 

Skills Australia does publish a list of "flagged" occupations which does indicate some insecurity for people in some occupations, see http://www.skillsaustralia.gov.au/PDFs_RTFs/FlaggedOccupations.pdf .

 

Obviously it would take some courage to initiate studies in Australia (planning to pursue the graduate migration pathway) in a flagged occupation. For people planning to lodge their application now, it's possible that although an application might be validly lodged you might lose priority status if the occupation is downgraded during processing.

 

 

3. Do the GSM changes apply to onshore students?

 

Yes, DIAC is giving strong indications that there will be no exemptions or transitional arrangements for onshore students.

 

 

4. What will be the pass mark for my EOI to generate an invitation to apply?

 

This depends on the competition at the time you apply and the quota for your occupation. Given too that the points test is a blunt instrument, ie there will be many people at each significant points level (65, 70, 75 etc) the order of lodging your EOI will be of critical importance, in fact the time of day of lodgment is going to be significant.

 

More to come.

 

Cheers,

 

George Lombard

[Guest The Pom Queen]

Thank you for this George, I will make the post a sticky.

[Guest guest59177]

Hi George,

 

I just wanted to seek your professional opinion regarding the flagging of ICT occupations. Do you think there is a chance they might get removed from the 2012 list?

[George Lombard]

Hi Lepto,

 

There are 25 IT occupations assessed by three assessing bodies, see below.

 

Currently eight of those occupations are excluded. Skills Australia chose not to identify occupations in demand according to specific skillsets but according to generic descriptors which are among the most useless in the whole of ANZSCO, and totally different to the criteria which ACS, TRA or Engineers Australia will follow in determining an applicant's occupation.

 

In my opinion anyone who's eligible now should be applying today as it's quite uncertain, in this area, what might be eligible tomorrow.

 

This is the list, see if you can spot the eight ineligibles:

 

Chief Information Officer 135111

ICT Business Analyst 261111

Systems Analyst 261112

Analyst Programmer 261311

Developer Programmer 261312

Software Engineer 261313

Software tester 261314

Software and Applications

Programmers nec 261399

Database Administrator 262111

ICT Security Specialist 262112

Systems Administrator 262113

Computer Network and Systems

Engineer 263111

Network Analyst 263113

Telecommunications engineer 263311*

Telecommunications network

Engineer 263312*

IT Manager (nec) 135199

Project Manager 135112

Multimedia Specialist 261211

Web Developer 261212

ICT Quality Assurance Engineer 263211

ICT Support Engineer 263212

ICT Systems Test Engineer 263213

ICT Support and Test Engineers nec 263299

ICT Customer Support Officer 313112

Hardware Technician 313111

 

 

Cheers,

 

 

George Lombard

[ramot]

point 3 ref onshore students.

Does this apply to ex onshore students who have already lodged their application, in some cases 2 1/2 years ago or more, and already living and working here on bridging visas, who are still in limbo land. Or only those who have not lodged their application yet.

Makes me laugh when it would now appear that if you have studied at uni, you might be allowed a 2 year visa to stay on, to encourage you, when so many with good degrees if not higher qualifications have been pushed to the bottom of the pile, with no end in sight. Namely cat 5 now through no fault of their own, just victims of retrospective immigration changes.

[Sol2Oz]

Hi George - Say an applicant lodges their application today, then comes April of this fiscal year (just an example), and their flagged occupation suddenly gets removed from the SOL. Will those who have already lodged their 176 and 175 applications fall from categories 3 and 4 respectively all the way to 5?

[PatrickW]

Consider the following hypothetical situation: I qualify for an independent visa, with 65 points - the bare minimum.

 

Would there be anything preventing me from falsely claiming 80-85 (or some other very high number) on your EOI points assessment, getting an invitation rapidly (since the invitation process is automated based only on the points you claim), and then, when the visa application goes ahead, "Oh, I self-assessed myself incorrectly, and I actually only have 65 points."

 

Would such an application be discarded immediately? Or would it be processed further, since I would meet the criteria for a visa with the 65 points.

 

I didn't see anything addressing that in the blog or Q&A, so I'd be interested to hear how this will be handled.

[Guest JennyReid]

Consider the following hypothetical situation: I qualify for an independent visa, with 65 points - the bare minimum.

 

Would there be anything preventing me from falsely claiming 80-85 (or some other very high number) on your EOI points assessment, getting an invitation rapidly (since the invitation process is automated based only on the points you claim), and then, when the visa application goes ahead, "Oh, I self-assessed myself incorrectly, and I actually only have 65 points."

 

Would such an application be discarded immediately? Or would it be processed further, since I would meet the criteria for a visa with the 65 points.

 

I didn't see anything addressing that in the blog or Q&A, so I'd be interested to hear how this will be handled.

 

Hi PatrickW,

 

I guess, this would definitely be the answer http://www.immi.gov.au/skilled/_pdf/fraud-pic.pdf .DIAC had been through this before!!

once they smelt a rat, DIAC would not only cancel your EOI, they would also ban you and your family from applying any visas for at least 3 years and after that your/your family's details would be on DIAC's database as a blacklisted for the rest of your and your family lives. when you want to lodge a visa app again after the ban has been lifted they would quadruple check your app and put you on security checks like there is no tomorrow. :jiggy: :cry:

[PatrickW]

Good point JennyReid

 

There may be some wiggle room since the PIC seems only to refer to applications - and is the EOI an actual application, or is that only referring to the visa application?

 

I take the point, though, that they will most likely make it extremely unattractive to try and get a higher position in the queue than you're entitled to.

 

Glad I've got my application in already!

[George Lombard]

@ Patrick - the point is that if you claimed 85 points to get an invitation and then turned out to only have 65 points then your application would just be refused as not meeting the applicable points score (which is going to vary between occupations) and you'd lose your application fee.

 

The EOI is an "application" as a matter of plain English but not an application under the Migration Act and Regulations - the point is that they don't want people to have any accrued rights until they've been "selected".

 

@Sol2Oz - the processing priorities are determined by the Minister and many people on this forum can tell you what it's like when your occupation loses priority. If an occupation is removed from the SOL entirely (ie not just Schedule 1) then classical thinking is that the visa can no longer be granted - this has happened periodically, the delisting of airline pilots was the last major one.

 

@ Ramot - it might be possible for people to be "rescued" from the backlog if they have suitable skills and qualifications for state sponsorship, that's an idea which seems sensible, but we don't expect the SkillSelect model to have any other significance for existing applications.

 

Cheers,

 

George Lombard

[Dono]

What are the chances of "Accountant" being removed from schedule 1 and 2 completely? I see it's still on most of the SMP lists and a lot of external auditors get in through that occupation at the moment (which are needed). The problem with that occupation is that it's relatively easy to get in on it - which is why a lot of the SMPs have changed to require specialisations and/or years of experience.

[George Lombard]

@ Dono - nil chance of coming off both Schedules but a significant risk of coming off Schedule 1, if Skills Australia is to be believed.

 

Cheers,

 

George Lombard

[Dono]

@ Dono - nil chance of coming off both Schedules but a significant risk of coming off Schedule 1, if Skills Australia is to be believed.

 

Cheers,

 

George Lombard

 

Ta for the information. I'm inlined to disagree somewhat - I think there is a risk that it may come off, but the risk isn't significant at this stage.

 

Skills Australia released this list quite a while ago and I remember there bein a number of press releases from firms and role players saying that there was no basis to remove it. The reason it is on there is because there was a bit of a surge in accountants getting PR visas in the current year, which skewed numbers somewhat. This wasn't expected to happen again any time soon, and most of the states still need accountants. Even NSW, which has one of the shortest lists, has it on their SMP - but then they need specialisations in audit or tax or risk management.

 

Unless they want to stop people applying as independent accountants and rather have them apply only once they have state sponsorship - this to me would make sense because the states can state which specialisations they need. This would stop generic bookkeeper type accountants from flooding the market.

 

May I ask why you feel that all the occupations on that list are at significant risk?

 

Also, for occupations currently on schedule 1 but not flagged, is there then a much less risk? I ask because I can be assessed as an external auditor as well (which is on schedule 1 and not flagged). Therefore just in case it does get removed and I don't get stats sponsorship then I can just be re assessed.

[George Lombard]

Hi Dono,

 

The flagged list occupations would seem to be the ones most likely to drop off Schedule 1, and if for example I were advising an overseas student to study I might be tending away from all the accountancy occupations at this stage.

 

For people who are ready to apply immediately in a flagged occupation I would also be suggesting state sponsorship where viable.

 

This is just common sense and sensible caution which I would expect of any professional adviser; it's not suggesting that accountants should forget about applying, just that they should do it quickly.

 

You might be right about the quantum of risk. There is a lot of information at the Skills Australia website but if I were to drill down on accounting in particular I would be very concerned about the statement in the particular summary sheet for accounting (and yes, external auditors are in a different summary sheet) that they expect an 18.2% growth in this occupation in the next five years. Put simply, in an industry which must be subject to further rationalisation through automation, this is a very brave statement. Essentially it's promising that government regulation (opening new vistas for accountants to work in) will keep pace with IT progress (cutting back the need for accounting services).

 

See http://www.skillsaustralia.gov.au/PDFs_RTFs/SOL/2211Accountants.pdf . "Employment is expected to rise by 18.2% over the next five years (compared with projected growth of 9.5% for all occupations)." For external auditors the projection is 16.5%.

 

Of course, if it takes 5 years to disprove their assumption then you're probably ok for the short term. But if they ever review their assumptions it might become interesting.

 

Cheers,

 

George Lombard

[Sol2Oz]

Hi George - just one more question - and thanks a lot for answering!

 

Lets say that someone (like me lol) who has an application already lodged - (a 175), and their occupation came off schedule 1 and in a worse case scenario - also drops off schedule 2: Will it matter at this point considering that a new system (EOI) will take place, so DIAC will have an opportunity to clear up all the backlogged applications - especially since no one will be invited to apply for a visa for an entire year?

 

Thanks for your answers!

[alex2010]

Hi there,

 

where did you get information no one will be able to apply for gsm for the entire year?

DIAC initially mentioned - 1st July 2012 EOI will start, early 2013 first invitations to apply. Therefore, there will be a half year gap to clear their backlog.

 

However, do not forget on shore transitional applicants who will not be affected by EOI until the end 2012.

 

I also believe DIAC will suspend accepting all offshore gsm applications earlier than 1st July 2012 to eliminate last minute rush like it happened in 2010 which would give more time to process old applications.

Alex

[Dono]

@George - true thanks for the extra info. I'd also caution people against studying generic accounting degrees in the short term because by the time they are done their skills may not be in demand.

 

@alex2010 - it's unlikely that they will suspend accepting new applications before 1 July 2012 as their whole purpose of suspending them is to give them 6 months to clear the backlog that they are expecting to happen before the EOI change.

[alex2010]

hi dono,

 

you never know what could happen with immigration policy. If the government gets a feeling that there could be many 65 pts applicants in June 2012, they will not hesitate to prevent this from happening.

alex

[Cables]

Sorry, just picked up this thread. I am a little confused with the EOI system... am I right in thinking the more points you have the better? We're at 75 points.

 

So, in my case, if Marketing Specialist were still on the list, and I had a positive VETASSESS, 8.5 overall in IELTS, 9 years highly relevant experience in that occupation and 75 points, am I likely to get an invite??

 

Thanks

Rhian

[Guest peterm2]

I was wondering - what happens with my 175 application if I apply with a skill which is going to be removed from the SOL or wont be available within the new EOI process? Will my application will be put into the prio5 group or will the DIAC try to reduce the backlog of applications between the first of july and january 2013?

 

thanks!

 

peter

[Petals]

Read an article over the weekend particularly for Melbourne that they are getting migrants where they are not needed and they should be looking to put migrants where they are needed i e mines, bush etc. Seems logical to me. Also said that employment in Melbourne was slowing so taking in so many was going to make it harder to get work.

[zionking]

Hi George,

 

I just read one of agent had two category 5 case processed and approved (886) - would you say this is completely untrue?

 

I show MARA contact of said agent and I am now a 'marketer'...

 

Thanks,

Kevin

[Alanlisa]

Hi George,

Reading your post has filled me with dread. We have just started on the long road by compiling a vetassess portfolio for my husband who is a spark, we were hoping to go to WA under SS. Is it worth getting everything done before the 1st July so we don't need to carry out the EOI?

Its taken us so long to pluck up the courage to start the process and now feel we may have left it too late.

Based onpoints we get the following

25 for age

10 for proficent english (this could be turned into 20)

15 for overseas work experience

10 for apprenticeship

5 for SS

 

So looking at it we only just get the 65 points, although could be turned into 75 for a better IELTS score.

I'm worried now. :frown:

[George Lombard]

@ Cables. No-one knows what points level works yet, for any occupation. You'd think that 75 is ok, but obviously if your occupation is only on Schedule 2 you might never get to the point of lodging an EOI.

 

@ Peter - the change won't affect applications already lodged and the issue about going up or down the priorities is not new, it's a risk everyone takes now.

 

@ Kevin - no we get requests for our lower priority clients from time to time but sadly I see no evidence that it's down to the agent's influence.

 

@Alanlisa and others - bear in mind that the changes will only affect those who haven't lodged by 1 July next year.

 

Cheers,

 

George Lombard

[Alanlisa]

We haven't submitted the skills assessment paper assessment yet, how likely would it be to get the paper assessment passed, the practical assessment passed and the visa lodged all in 6 months!!!