Who'd like to guess how long it will take for the housing market to recover?
Like a lottery this one...
For background, UK house prices have slipped something like 6 to 7% in the last 12 months with May making up 2.5% and June making up 0.9% - so I guess the 10 months before that make up the rest 2.5% to 3.5%.
Anyone like to give their (realistic) view on when the UK house prices will be back to their October 2007 levels - i.e. when could you easily sell your house for the same price as it was in Oct. '07?
Hiya, heard on the news don't know if was yesterday or the day before (god thats a bad memory) that house prices have fallen quicker than they did back in the early 90's. Aparently it took about 3 years for prices to fall to same level that they have done this year in 6 months. Does that make sense.
So its either going to go 2 ways, continuing falling or it will level out by the end of the year.
Also, people still do want to move house, they are just sitting tight or its the lack of good mortgage options that are putting people off.
I do think they will level out by the end of they year, houses were getting to silly prices that were just not sustainable. So they will level out and I think it will stay like that for long time, definately no more increases and fingerscross no more decreases either.
Mandisfam
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For background, UK house prices have slipped something like 6 to 7% in the last 12 months with May making up 2.5% and June making up 0.9% - so I guess the 10 months before that make up the rest 2.5% to 3.5%.
Anyone like to give their (realistic) view on when the UK house prices will be back to their October 2007 levels - i.e. when could you easily sell your house for the same price as it was in Oct. '07?
7-10 years from now ie 2015-2018
2008 -10% to -15%
2009 -10% to -15%
2010 0 -5%
Total from peak 30-40% drop, then a slow recovery.
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I think that to be able to comfortably sell at Oct 2007 prices - 4 to 5 years for the 300k bracket and above. For entry level properties i.e less than 200k - 2 years. Either way the rest of 2008 and 2009 for all but the lucky ones will be a write off. Aaaarggghhhhh lol
Why is everyone panicking. Stop it now and give yourselves a good talking to!
The main problem is the bloody banks and building societies over lending ie 125 and 150% of value of house for a mortgage.
I am selling a 4 year old VW passat, book value £7000, Who in there right mind is going to give me £11000 for it. Its exactly the same with homes. Afriend of mine is unemployed he has been offered a credit card for £5000. How is he expected to pay it back when he has no money comming in.
Its the stupid gready financial businesses at fault, and it is them that are suffering, look at northern rock.
This is a constant 10 year cycle, we had a market crash in the 90's and 80's. hold tight, dont overspend and your home will be back at the sensible value it was 2 years ago. It might take 2 or 3 years but stop panicking.
It's unfortunate for those wanting to sell and go now, but you have to ask yourself, was your house price a realistic value, or a victim of inflated valueation. Its a gamble, if you sold at the peek, you won. If you want to sell now, youve lost, but there shouldnt be a reason for you to still be able to sell for more than you purchased for.
That's the bricks and mortar game, peeks and trough's short term, but high gain in the long term.
And as for the passat, it's worth whatever someone is prepared to pay for it, nothing more and nothing less.............................................. ........That'll be the same with houses then., will it?
As always, lots of love to everyone.
Chris
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Bored with the chicken thing now!
I have a low boredom threshold.................ur getting close!
Totally agree with you Chris, people had got too greedy and there is still a shortage of housing in the UK.
Plus it's the same the world over just some places are taking their time getting there.
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I work as a Consultant to all the large house developers, we are very very busy with planning applications but the construction side of things is desperate. Taylor Wimpey, Barrett, Redrow all reporting problems, Perssimon, Crest Nicholson's, Belway all have share slumps.
As someone said to me watch the 4th quarter.
My company has had 9 redundentcies so far, this is due to the the fees for consultants being halved by the clients, we are in dire straits and everyone is fearing the worse.
This is not short term and we have not seen the worse yet.
Chris i believe you are close but not quite right the rest of you i fear are taken in by the hype
people with more than a 90%mortgage the banks won't touch. overnight they have stopped lending to first time buyers with less than 10% deposit and to other banks (which was northern rocks problem not the 125% mortgages they had the highest quality mortgage book in the land and the smallest number of defaults)no first time buyers then nobody else can move on either it stops the whole process,as for the house builders why build a house nobody can get a mortgage to buy unfortunelty this has a wider effect (estate agecies i have no sympathy for greedy *********)the banks make money by lending their loses this year are a less than qaurter of their profits so over all didn't make a loss they are driven by profit and wont make much profit while it is sat in their vaults they will lend again and there will be a back log of people wanting to move my personel opinion is that the banks will start lending again at the end of this year or very early next year and prices will rise again there is more demand than supply but no one to get a mortgage from.
the banks are just chasing the best customers at the moment but when they have funds sat there they will start expanding there lending.
This is my opinon i'm not an expert and you can slate me if you want but the press love a good old panic.
Last edited by TheBrammies; 02-07-2008 at 09:20 PM.
Reason: missed something out
