Are you feeling the pinch in oz

[Perthbum]

Or is it business as usual? when we were in recession in the UK for me and the people I know just carried on as usual and did not notice much although some must have suffered.

 

Capital investment: Economic outlook slips 'from bleak to recessionary'

 

Two weeks after the budget, Australia's economic outlook is bleak.

Mining as well as non-mining firms are planning to slash investment in the year ahead, cutting total investment spending by 21 per cent.

The Bureau of Statistics survey conducted in April and May is at odds with the budget forecast of a lift in non-mining investment.

The survey of chief financial officers shows mining firms expect to cut investment 34 per cent, manufacturing firms 24 per cent, and other firms 6.1 per cent.

"The rotation away from mining investment that seemed to be progressing over the past year is no longer advancing," said JP Morgan economist Stephen Walters. "Firms outside resources actually have downgraded their spending intentions after adjustment for the usual estimation errors. They are in no position to offset the even steeper fall by mining firms."

UBS economist George Tharenou told clients the outlook had switched "from bleak to recessionary".

"The capital expenditure cliff has arrived early," he said. "This data is so bad it would worry the Reserve Bank and raises the risk they will cut rates again ahead."

In Parliament, Treasurer Joe Hockey said the data was "disappointing" but the $20,000 instant asset write-off in the budget would make a difference for small businesses.

Victoria was partly to blame for its "calamitous" decision to knock back an offer of Commonwealth money for the East West Link, a project that "would have involved probably around $12 billion of private-sector capital expenditure". Queensland had turned its back on an offer of Commonwealth money for asset recycling.

Federal Labor spokesman Chris Bowen said the Treasurer had no one to blame but himself.

"Private capital expenditure is now down 11 per cent since the last election and the result is the worst since the global financial crisis," he said.

"Before the election, the Prime Minister promised 'an instantaneous adrenalin charge'. The Treasurer has been speaking about real momentum.

"The fact is that the Abbott government has presided over an underperforming economy, with growth downgraded and unemployment forecast to go higher in the recent budget."

The budget forecast economic growth of 2.75 per cent in the year ahead and 3.25 per cent in 2016-17. Mr Tharenou said his already-low forecasts of 2.2 per cent and 2.8 per cent now looked difficult to achieve.

The $54 billion Gorgon natural gas project off northwest Australia is expected to wind up this year, as is Gina Rinehart's $10 billion Roy Hill iron ore project. The $30 billion Wheatstone gas project in Western Australia is 60 per cent complete and the Curtis Island project near Gladstone in Queensland finishes next year.

[newjez]

Or is it business as usual? when we were in recession in the UK for me and the people I know just carried on as usual and did not notice much although some must have suffered.

 

Capital investment: Economic outlook slips 'from bleak to recessionary'

 

Two weeks after the budget, Australia's economic outlook is bleak.

Mining as well as non-mining firms are planning to slash investment in the year ahead, cutting total investment spending by 21 per cent.

The Bureau of Statistics survey conducted in April and May is at odds with the budget forecast of a lift in non-mining investment.

The survey of chief financial officers shows mining firms expect to cut investment 34 per cent, manufacturing firms 24 per cent, and other firms 6.1 per cent.

"The rotation away from mining investment that seemed to be progressing over the past year is no longer advancing," said JP Morgan economist Stephen Walters. "Firms outside resources actually have downgraded their spending intentions after adjustment for the usual estimation errors. They are in no position to offset the even steeper fall by mining firms."

UBS economist George Tharenou told clients the outlook had switched "from bleak to recessionary".

"The capital expenditure cliff has arrived early," he said. "This data is so bad it would worry the Reserve Bank and raises the risk they will cut rates again ahead."

In Parliament, Treasurer Joe Hockey said the data was "disappointing" but the $20,000 instant asset write-off in the budget would make a difference for small businesses.

Victoria was partly to blame for its "calamitous" decision to knock back an offer of Commonwealth money for the East West Link, a project that "would have involved probably around $12 billion of private-sector capital expenditure". Queensland had turned its back on an offer of Commonwealth money for asset recycling.

Federal Labor spokesman Chris Bowen said the Treasurer had no one to blame but himself.

"Private capital expenditure is now down 11 per cent since the last election and the result is the worst since the global financial crisis," he said.

"Before the election, the Prime Minister promised 'an instantaneous adrenalin charge'. The Treasurer has been speaking about real momentum.

"The fact is that the Abbott government has presided over an underperforming economy, with growth downgraded and unemployment forecast to go higher in the recent budget."

The budget forecast economic growth of 2.75 per cent in the year ahead and 3.25 per cent in 2016-17. Mr Tharenou said his already-low forecasts of 2.2 per cent and 2.8 per cent now looked difficult to achieve.

The $54 billion Gorgon natural gas project off northwest Australia is expected to wind up this year, as is Gina Rinehart's $10 billion Roy Hill iron ore project. The $30 billion Wheatstone gas project in Western Australia is 60 per cent complete and the Curtis Island project near Gladstone in Queensland finishes next year.

 

I found the dropping pound hurt a bit. There seemed to be a lot of inflation, and the boe couldn't fight it with interest rates due to the screwed economy. I found food especially went up as the pound dropped.

[Parley]

A recession is wonderful as long as you have a job.

Everything in the shops is on sale. Interest rates are low on your mortgage.

Everyone will deal if you want to buy something.

[ali]

This thread has been moved to News as it's about Aus and not a CTF topic.

 

To answer the OP, not feeling the pinch and sometimes there are advantages as Parley said with reduced interest rates and bargains.

[dmjg]

Other than the one on the bum from the OH ten minutes ago,

 

No other pinches are being felt.:nah:

[Booma]

no not feeling a pinch & my hubby who is self employed has more work then he can manage.

[HelensvaleHoward]

I found the dropping pound hurt a bit. There seemed to be a lot of inflation, and the boe couldn't fight it with interest rates due to the screwed economy. I found food especially went up as the pound dropped.

 

I thought you were in the UK?

[HelensvaleHoward]

We're not feeling it at all

[Rallyman]

A recession is wonderful as long as you have a job.

Everything in the shops is on sale. Interest rates are low on your mortgage.

Everyone will deal if you want to buy something.

 

 

A strange statment, have you ever experienced and suffered first hand the effects of a recession having to choose if you pay the mortgage or put food on the table probably not with this statement.

I can remember the one in the UK in the 90's for me there was very little work about 2-3 days at best and often working double the hours for the same pay because ruthless employers exploiting the fact.

[MARYROSE02]

A strange statment, have you ever experienced and suffered first hand the effects of a recession having to choose if you pay the mortgage or put food on the table probably not with this statement.

I can remember the one in the UK in the 90's for me there was very little work about 2-3 days at best and often working double the hours for the same pay because ruthless employers exploiting the fact.

 

You have to look at PB's original post, and then you can understand Parley's somewhat 'nonchalant' response!

 

Originally Posted by Perthbum

Or is it business as usual? when we were in recession in the UK for me and the people I know just carried on as usual and did not notice much although some must have suffered.

 

Notice the implication that the plucky Brits carried on regardless in the face of another threat to their existence, with 'the recession' playing the part of 'the Nazis', whilst the Aussies, in the same situation, crumble in the face of adversity.

 

Recessions only hurt if you are in dire financial straits. If you have a good job, why would you notice it? My own situation has actually improved because the bulk of my income comes from the UK and it has increased substantially with the slump in the dollar against the pound.

[Parley]

That was my point Rallyman which you seemed to have missed.

As long as you are in a stable job and have your normal wage coming in then you are likely to benefit in the other ways I mentioned.

[Parley]

Also I was speaking generally not for myself specifically.

I'm not employed full time and have been feeling the pinch a bit but getting by living fairly frugally most of the time.

[Rallyman]

PB, I understand what you were saying, there are always winners and losers in a recession just though it a strange thing to say that its wonderful thing if you have a job.

The damage to a local community is devastating often taking a generation to get over it, I was brought up in North East Wales left school in 1980 right in the middle of a recession , when the steel works closed it decimated the area approximately 12-15 thousand men unemployed over night and its taken the best part of my life time for the area to recover. Some areas have never recovered.

Wonder what opinion would be if it was to happen today in say Sydney with that amount of men in need of work at the stroke of a pen.

 

I am going to gain myself substantially with the slump in the dollar but would not wish what I went through in my early years on anybody.

[Parley]

That sounds more like a depression scenario you are talking about than what we normally mean by recession which is not generally so dire as you describe.

[Rallyman]

It was never described as a depression only ever a recession. lets hope things never get that bad again.

[starlight7]

We're ok so long as they don't decide to nick our retirement income like they did in the UK. Everyone we know is fine, too- working and retired. It has to be a poor economy for a few years before you notice much change I guess, unless you are looking for work.

[flag of convenience]

Well no we have too much personal debt in a falling economy. Many appearing well off are well appearances only. This puts economic recovery between a hard rock and a stone. Falling interest rates are not working besides inflating the housing bubble and increasing rates will likely prevent rises of any magnitude to cull future inflation in fear of bursting the housing bubble and house prices tumbling to perhaps half or less their worth. (more akin to true worth I would suggest)

The onus on part time and casual work ever escalating of course these features will impact on al but the very rich. Of course with higher prices and falling currency we could inflate away housing bubbles over time but how much poorer as a nation would we become?

[flag of convenience]

We're ok so long as they don't decide to nick our retirement income like they did in the UK. Everyone we know is fine, too- working and retired. It has to be a poor economy for a few years before you notice much change I guess, unless you are looking for work.

 

It is close to impossible to see how it can remain untouched (super) over the medium term. Not only looking for work but maintain present conditions as well as the drive to cut costs intensifies.

[starlight7]

Let's hope we aren't daft enough to put a Labor government in until things improve.

[newjez]

I thought you were in the UK?

 

Yes, pb said he didn't feel the UK recession and was wondering whether people are feeling the Australian recession. I said I did feel the UK recession as inflation went a bit wild, and the bank of England wouldn't raise rates to combat it due to the fragile economy. Take it from there...

[newjez]

Let's hope we aren't daft enough to put a Labor government in until things improve.

 

Worked so badly last time didn't it?

[newjez]

You have to look at PB's original post, and then you can understand Parley's somewhat 'nonchalant' response!

 

Originally Posted by Perthbum

Or is it business as usual? when we were in recession in the UK for me and the people I know just carried on as usual and did not notice much although some must have suffered.

 

Notice the implication that the plucky Brits carried on regardless in the face of another threat to their existence, with 'the recession' playing the part of 'the Nazis', whilst the Aussies, in the same situation, crumble in the face of adversity.

 

Recessions only hurt if you are in dire financial straits. If you have a good job, why would you notice it? My own situation has actually improved because the bulk of my income comes from the UK and it has increased substantially with the slump in the dollar against the pound.

 

 

I didn't read that in his post. To some extent a govt can decide who bears most of the recessionary burden. Possibly he was inquiring whether the burden is carried differently in Australia, with it being a more equal society?

[VERYSTORMY]

In a word. Yes.

[Parley]

Lucky we aren't in a recession.

[HelensvaleHoward]

Yes, pb said he didn't feel the UK recession and was wondering whether people are feeling the Australian recession. I said I did feel the UK recession as inflation went a bit wild, and the bank of England wouldn't raise rates to combat it due to the fragile economy. Take it from there...

Ahhh ok I think