[Gollywobbler]

Hi All

After several false starts with the thing, I think I have finally worked out what the Queue Calculator is actually doing. Whether I can explain it coherently to someone else is another matter, however.

Please bear in mind that the backlog of Queued applications was at its height on 30th June 2008. On that date, they knew that they had placed some 1,960 CPV 143 applicants in the Queue but could not start granting their visas until the following day.

720 of the applicants who were in the CPV 143 Queue on 30th June 2008 were still awaiting their visas on 31st July 2008, plus another 60 were added to the Queue during July, so that by 31st July a total of 780 Queued CPV 143 applicants were still awaiting their Grants.

At the beginning of July, the POPC reckoned that it would take them a couple of months to work their way through the backlog of delayed Grants, and they said they hoped to clear the backlog by the end of August 2008.

It does look like they are meeting this target. They were able to grant over 1,000 CPV 143s during July 2008, so when they publish the next set of figures, due out on around 20-25th September 2008, they should show a much smaller figure for 30th June 2008 than the 720 currently shown as still being outstanding from 30th June or earlier.

Out of that 720 people, some 30 were added to the Queue on or before 31st October 2007. The Table is here:



DATE CPV143
31/10/2007 30 30/11/2007 70

31/12/2007 130
31/01/2008 210 29/02/2008 270
31/03/2008 340
30/04/2008 470
31/05/2008 640
30/06/2008 720
31/07/2008 780

However, in every case the lodgement date of the CPV application was some 10-12 months before the date on which the Parent was added to the Queue.


At the moment the POPC estimate that if a CPV 143 application was lodged on 1st July 2008, the applicants can expect to hear from a CO on or around 1st July 2009. The POPC estimate that, on average, it will then be around a further 6 months before all the formalities are completed and the visa is eventually granted.

Obviously the POPC will err on the side of caution, so as to avoid raising false hope and so as not to alarm anybody unnecessarily.

Nonetheless, please do not muddle the date of lodgement with the date on which your application may have been added to the Queue. Applicants hitherto have not been added to the Queue until after their CO is happy that all the legal requirements for the visa are met including that their meds and pccs have been sent in, processed and cleared. Once all that is done it leaves only completion of the AOS (if required) and payment of the 2nd Instalment before the visa can be granted.


However until they start telling applicants, "You were added to the Queue on dd/mm/yyyy," figuring out the date on which one was added to the Queue is going to remain no more than very approximate.


I hope this makes some semblance of sense, and I would put money on the idea that the Table, which looks OK on my screen at the minute, will turn into a formatting disaster as soon as I hit "submit."


The best way to keep a running tally is going to be to use Excel, I reckon.


Best wishes


Gill